This was my point regarding CHL stat's. If you can't put up big points in the CHL, I can't see you being able to do it in the NHL.
That depends on what you consider "big points in the CHL". Look at how many people crapped on RNH's NHLE and lack of goal scoring and then look at what he's done this year relative to guys that had a much higher ppg pace and goals scored totals in the CHL.
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Because people don't use stats in context with the history of the leagues at the time.
Joe Blow had 180 points in Junior he should be a star in the NHL. But the problem is during Joe Blow's time in Junior scoring as a whole was way up and you had multiple guys with huge seasons.
Look at a guy like Shea Weber. His last season in junior he had 41 points. He never scored 20 goals either in junior but already in the NHL he has had a 20 goal and 50 point season.
Look at a guy like Shea Weber. His last season in junior he had 41 points. He never scored 20 goals either in junior but already in the NHL he has had a 20 goal and 50 point season.
Mike Green is another example (although he did have pretty nice numbers after his draft year).
Stats never paint the whole picture, but they also can't be ignored completely. It's all about perspective and balancing stats with what you (or scouts) see the player do on the ice.
That depends on what you consider "big points in the CHL". Look at how many people crapped on RNH's NHLE and then look at what he's done this year relative to guys that had a much higher ppg pace in the CHL.
Typically players can't duplicate their CHL numbers in the NHL. Some drop off more than others, but rarely do they ever exceed them. Using the RNH example, he would have to put up a 127 point season in the NHL to beat his Junior numbers. Possible, but not unlikely. Crosby needs a 223 point season to beat his best Junior year. CHL numbers show they are capable offensive players, but aren't a good representation of how many points they are likely to get as NHL players.
If Murray were even able to match his best CHL season(this season), it still wouldn't be as good as Niedermayer's 2 best seasons. I do like what Murray brings to the table, but people need to be more realistic in what to expect of him offensively, and I doubt that is Niedermayer numbers.
Typically players can't duplicate their CHL numbers in the NHL. Some drop off more than others, but rarely do they ever exceed them. Using the RNH example, he would have to put up a 127 point season in the NHL to beat his Junior numbers. Possible, but not unlikely. Crosby needs a 223 point season to beat his best Junior year. CHL numbers show they are capable offensive players, but aren't a good representation of how many points they are likely to get as NHL players.
If Murray were even able to match his best CHL season(this season), it still wouldn't be as good as Niedermayer's 2 best seasons. I do like what Murray brings to the table, but people need to be more realistic in what to expect of him offensively, and I doubt that is Niedermayer numbers.
Well, first of all.....It's not that people think that he will have a career as good as Niedermeyer, it's that his game resembles Niedermeyer's. RNH's game resembles Gretzky but he won't have a career as good as Gretzky's.
Also, you're comparing numbers from different eras. You can't just say that since Murray didn't put up numbers comparable to Niedermeyer that he won't put up strong numbers in the NHL.
There are a lot of factors in play when comparing different CHL careers....
What role does the team have the defenseman in? How good is the team surrounding him? How high is the league scoring in general? How good is the competition?
The point is that determining a players' upside goes WELL beyond numbers.
There is a reason that Murray is a consensus #2-#3 on most lists.
Well, first of all.....It's not that people think that he will have a career as good as Niedermeyer, it's that his game resembles Niedermeyer's. RNH's game resembles Gretzky but he won't have a career as good as Gretzky's.
Also, you're comparing numbers from different eras. You can't just say that since Murray didn't put up numbers comparable to Niedermeyer that he won't put up strong numbers in the NHL.
There are a lot of factors in play when comparing different CHL careers....
What role does the team have the defenseman in? How good is the team surrounding him? How high is the league scoring in general? How good is the competition?
The point is that determining a players' upside goes WELL beyond numbers.
There is a reason that Murray is a consensus #2-#3 on most lists.
Give me a list of D men that have had a better season in the NHL than the CHL. I've looked up a lot of D-men, and am having a hard time finding one.
Because people don't use stats in context with the history of the leagues at the time.
Joe Blow had 180 points in Junior he should be a star in the NHL. But the problem is during Joe Blow's time in Junior scoring as a whole was way up and you had multiple guys with huge seasons.
Look at a guy like Shea Weber. His last season in junior he had 41 points. He never scored 20 goals either in junior but already in the NHL he has had a 20 goal and 50 point season.
He also only played 55 games in his final junior season, 60 in the one previous to that.
I agree that there are a lot of Junior players that tear it up in the CHL, but do nothing in the NHL. But who are players that have had better NHL seasons than Junior seasons? Few and far between. You don't look at a Junior player who is a point per game player and expect that to be there NHL comparable.
Gretzky's OHA season would have translated to a 240 point season if he had played 82 games.
Mike Green is another example (although he did have pretty nice numbers after his draft year).
Stats never paint the whole picture, but they also can't be ignored completely. It's all about perspective and balancing stats with what you (or scouts) see the player do on the ice.
This is one player that I can find that had a better PPG as an NHL player compared to CHL. His best CHL year was 0.985, his best NHL year thus far is 1.07. Over 82 games, that's a 7 point increase.
Bouwmeester is massively underrated on these forums. He may have been projected to be a true franchise D man with offensive skills but he is far from the dud that people like to paint him out to be.
Tremendously durable player 7 years of 82 games played and hasn't missed a game in his last 7 years. The guy logs massive ice time 3rd in the whole league, about 26 minutes per game. If Murray ended up like Bouwmeester the oilers would be fortunate.
yeah i've never understood how bouwmeester has been thought of as a dissapiontment... he's had a very good career so far, he would be the best dman on our team by a country mile
Not really true. I think i know what you are getting at but players going lights out in CHL point wise have at least a chance to do so in the NHL (Eberle). Also it is probably very very very rare that a guy that doesn't put up points in junior will become a big point producer in the NHL. A guy that scores 6 goals and 20 assists in the CHL is not going to be a 17 goal 50 point Dman in the NHL.
Thats why I said generally. You're right - guys that don't produce in the CHL likely will never convert anything in the NHL if they make it. But I can put together a pretty long list of guys that put up big numbers in the CHL that couldn't cut it in the NHL, e.g. Schremp.
Point production in the CHL is not a great indicator of NHL success and its a very bad way of comparing players.
yeah i've never understood how bouwmeester has been thought of as a dissapiontment... he's had a very good career so far, he would be the best dman on our team by a country mile
Its because hes a Flame. And he never lived up to the draft billing in terms of point production.
I think the feeling on the boards is that if we're picking a Dman in the 2-5 range of the draft, you want what Jay brings plus some more offense. More Drew Doughty - less Chris Philips.
Its because hes a Flame. And he never lived up to the draft billing in terms of point production.
I think the feeling on the boards is that if we're picking a Dman in the 2-5 range of the draft, you want what Jay brings plus some more offense. More Drew Doughty - less Chris Philips.
I think his salary and the fact that they dealt Dion with the expectation that Jay could fill in for some of his offence are against him as well. If they kept Dion and he was being payed $5 million/year, I don't think he would get much hate.
I think the thread's titles are going to need to change to lesser prospects as each day goes by. As pointed out in the game thread for tonight, we aren't that far off of picking 5th or 6th. I think 2nd is out of the question. I had thought this back in January, but I thought it was Carolina who we would overtake. Obviously Montreal wanted it more.
Assuming the draft goes as per McKenzie's list of 1. Yakupov, 2. Grigorenko, 3. Murray 4. Forsberg, Dumba just happens to fall in our lap. A few posters around here would be pretty happy. Galchenyuk's name I would think would be an intriguing one as well at 5th.
If all the scouts have Murray as the top-ranked D-man, what value do you give that?
Unless this is a Moneyball situation and some statitician throws some advanced metrics at me showing that Murray is more likely to be a 3-4 D-man, I'd trust the scouts.
If all the scouts have Murray as the top-ranked D-man, what value do you give that?
Unless this is a Moneyball situation and some statitician throws some advanced metrics at me showing that Murray is more likely to be a 3-4 D-man, I'd trust the scouts.
Who says all the scouts have Murray as the top dman?
I'm saying hypothetically. What value do you place on the scouts being united behind Murray as the best d-man prospect? Or 80% of the scouts?
I like to make up my own mind based on my own viewings. But if I dont have any or very limited viewings, I would take other sources into account, depending on what those sources were.
We will never have access to what real nhl scouts think. The closest we get to that is McKenzie's list, which if you cross reference it with the actual draft order, there is still significant variance.
I'm starting to think that Alzner is a pretty good comparable for what Murray might be, for better or for worse. What do you guys think? What would be some differences? (Besides the 1-2'' height difference)
HF Alzner analysis:
Quote:
Alzner is a smooth skating, mobile defenseman who has a strong sense of positional awareness. He does not have a highly-developed offensive game but relies on smart, quick passes and anticipation to both support the attack and to prevent opposing scoring chances. He is not a very physical player but is disciplined and rarely takes unnecessary penalties. Alzner plays a defense-first game but can contribute to the offense when the situation warrants.
