HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Toronto Maple Leafs
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

v18: Hornets win draft lottery, will pick 1st. Raptors will pick 8th.

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
05-16-2012, 01:13 PM
  #801
Buckleys
Registered User
 
Buckleys's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,041
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
I can do this for you this afternoon some time. Chances are that I'll end up writing an essay, so I'll need to have a good chunk of free time to sit and write. Maybe during the Jays game.
I would appreciate this as well, as I have really gotten into the Jays and Raptors the last year.

One thing I don't understand about both Baseball and Basketball is why people just **** on people so young. For example why can't Demar Derozan and Colby Rasmus from each sport improve? I just don't understand why guys 22-25 can't see a significant improvement and people want them gone so much.

Buckleys is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 01:51 PM
  #802
thatshype
Registered User
 
thatshype's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,700
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edgeworth View Post
So I'm still relatively new to basketball, been keeping my ears perked and trying to learn as much as I can. I have a legitimate interest in the game but everythign I hear about the Raptors sounds awful.

How would you fix the roster? Is Colangelo even a decent GM? I hear suhc mixed things on him.

Basically I'd like a rundown of the roster, who fits, who doesn't, and how people would fix it because I have no idea where to go to get the exposure HFboards can get for Basketball.
Although I'm not much better than you in terms of insider knowledge, I would say Colangelo was a pretty highly touted exec when he first got here. He was the GM for the Suns when they were at their peak, and when he came he was touted as an expert on European talent. Most of the significant moves he's made involve European players (drafting Bargnani, signing Calderon, and now drafting Valenciunas). He was originally celebrated as being the guy that could build a successful team north of the border...where most American players wouldn't be caught dead playing.

However I think that people have soured on him for two main reasons: mucking up the supporting cast around Bosh (ie. O'Neal, Marion), and for not truly embracing a rebuild once we lost Bosh. It's been said recently in this thread that the team has been good enough to get out of the top 5 draft choices, and have missed out on some quality talent by doing so. However, they are nowhere close to a playoff team, let alone a legit contender.

I won't comment on the current roster since I don't watch nearly enough games to make valid opinions. However, I'll go on a limb and say that I think the only real course of action is to sell-off Calderon and Bargnani to the highest bidder. I don't think they will get you all that much in return (or anything of value, really), but it will at least allow the team to truly "bottom out" and get a top 5 pick in an upcoming draft. Basketball is the sport where star-talent matters the MOST; where a star player can TRULY take over the game.


Quote:
One thing I don't understand about both Baseball and Basketball is why people just **** on people so young. For example why can't Demar Derozan and Colby Rasmus from each sport improve? I just don't understand why guys 22-25 can't see a significant improvement and people want them gone so much.
Well the simple answer is frustration. People don't see the improvements fast enough to get excited about, and worse yet, they compare young players to the rookies around the league that ARE making huge strides. Derozan wouldn't really be hated on at all if guys like Griffin, Harden, Curry, Jennings, and a few others from that draft weren't playing so well. If Derozan was only being compared to the Thabeet's and the Hill's of that draft, we'd probably all be alot happier with him.

thatshype is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 01:51 PM
  #803
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckleys View Post
I would appreciate this as well, as I have really gotten into the Jays and Raptors the last year.

One thing I don't understand about both Baseball and Basketball is why people just **** on people so young. For example why can't Demar Derozan and Colby Rasmus from each sport improve? I just don't understand why guys 22-25 can't see a significant improvement and people want them gone so much.
part of it is impatience, and part of it is the belief that for the most part, what you see is what you get after a guy has been in the big leagues for a couple of years. Or at least that the players haven't shown a satisfactory amount of growth or improvement in their careers to date.

__________________

"Do you know what "nemesis" means? A righteous infliction of retribution manifested by an appropriate agent."

Sorry, I am not taking signature requests at this time.
The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 02:53 PM
  #804
Joey24
Registered User
 
Joey24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: New Zealand
Country: New Zealand
Posts: 5,484
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to Joey24
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
part of it is impatience, and part of it is the belief that for the most part, what you see is what you get after a guy has been in the big leagues for a couple of years. Or at least that the players haven't shown a satisfactory amount of growth or improvement in their careers to date.
I have to agree with this. Not often a young player is able to step right in and contribute at a high level in the NHL. It does happen from time to time but not nearly as much as in the NBA or MLB. The NBA just recently got it's self a development league so before that if you didn't make it you were a bust and players played in much lesser leagues in North America or they moved overseas.

MLB has a pretty good development league in place but still at times fast track guys and seem to give up on players rather quickly compared to the NHL, But for some reason in MLB if high end prospects struggle bad early on or lose their confidence it seems like they never fully recover or blossom quite like NHL prospects. MLB is still quite old school in the way they do things obviously it has evolved but it's still an old boys world. The NBA for some reason didn't see the need for a development league until recently so it will probably be a while before they are able to get that up and running properly and to it's full potential.

Joey24 is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 04:34 PM
  #805
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey24 View Post
I have to agree with this. Not often a young player is able to step right in and contribute at a high level in the NHL. It does happen from time to time but not nearly as much as in the NBA or MLB. The NBA just recently got it's self a development league so before that if you didn't make it you were a bust and players played in much lesser leagues in North America or they moved overseas.

MLB has a pretty good development league in place but still at times fast track guys and seem to give up on players rather quickly compared to the NHL, But for some reason in MLB if high end prospects struggle bad early on or lose their confidence it seems like they never fully recover or blossom quite like NHL prospects. MLB is still quite old school in the way they do things obviously it has evolved but it's still an old boys world. The NBA for some reason didn't see the need for a development league until recently so it will probably be a while before they are able to get that up and running properly and to it's full potential.
Yeah, the NBA really has a sink-or-swim mentality. I also think that the idea of minor league development is so new to them that they may not embrace it as fully as they should. Even now, the D-League is mostly the domain of 2nd round picks, undrafted FAs and guys who just don't want to play in Europe. There seems to be a hesitance to send picks of consequence to the D-League to get playing time they might need. Somehow it's better to let them rot on the end of the bench, or play garbage minutes at the ends of blowout games. It just feels like a waste and part of the reason that so many players end up failing.

I also think that the lack of player development hurts the players too because it breeds this contemptuous view of needing to develop as a professional. Take Gerald Green for example. He comes into the league with all this hype and fanfare, but he's yet another high schooler coasting on superior athleticism instead of a solid skill base. He ends up flopping as an NBAer and is out of the league (now he did spend part of his early seasons in the D-League, but only after he was already being destroyed at the NBA level). He ends up in Europe for a few years, in the D-League now as an outside player using it as an NBA springboard instead of a developmental path, and finally gets back to the NBA now as a slightly more complete player than he was. He also did apparently pout and sulk a bit about his assignment to the D-League by Boston in his first NBA go-around.

But he would've benefitted greatly from starting in the D-League and learning to play the game in a less pressure-filled environment. Maybe he would've avoided all the mess of his later career and had a better NBA run.

But instead the prevailing NBA logic is that you bring a guy in after being drafted, play him when you can, and 2-3 years down the road whatever he happens to have become at that time is what he will be for the rest of his career, so it's best to just stop trying to teach guys by then. Never mind that it's a ridiculous bit of logic (take Bargnani last year, who showed a ton of defensive improvement from his rookie season... 6 years ago)

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 05:56 PM
  #806
Joey24
Registered User
 
Joey24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: New Zealand
Country: New Zealand
Posts: 5,484
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to Joey24
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Yeah, the NBA really has a sink-or-swim mentality. I also think that the idea of minor league development is so new to them that they may not embrace it as fully as they should. Even now, the D-League is mostly the domain of 2nd round picks, undrafted FAs and guys who just don't want to play in Europe. There seems to be a hesitance to send picks of consequence to the D-League to get playing time they might need. Somehow it's better to let them rot on the end of the bench, or play garbage minutes at the ends of blowout games. It just feels like a waste and part of the reason that so many players end up failing.

I also think that the lack of player development hurts the players too because it breeds this contemptuous view of needing to develop as a professional. Take Gerald Green for example. He comes into the league with all this hype and fanfare, but he's yet another high schooler coasting on superior athleticism instead of a solid skill base. He ends up flopping as an NBAer and is out of the league (now he did spend part of his early seasons in the D-League, but only after he was already being destroyed at the NBA level). He ends up in Europe for a few years, in the D-League now as an outside player using it as an NBA springboard instead of a developmental path, and finally gets back to the NBA now as a slightly more complete player than he was. He also did apparently pout and sulk a bit about his assignment to the D-League by Boston in his first NBA go-around.

But he would've benefitted greatly from starting in the D-League and learning to play the game in a less pressure-filled environment. Maybe he would've avoided all the mess of his later career and had a better NBA run.

But instead the prevailing NBA logic is that you bring a guy in after being drafted, play him when you can, and 2-3 years down the road whatever he happens to have become at that time is what he will be for the rest of his career, so it's best to just stop trying to teach guys by then. Never mind that it's a ridiculous bit of logic (take Bargnani last year, who showed a ton of defensive improvement from his rookie season... 6 years ago)
Yea I don't really get how the NBA does things when it comes to 1st round picks. For some reason it's as though these young guys are expected to just come right in and perform in the best basketball league in the world.

The D league I agree is not used to a quarter of it full potential. Young players could benefit greatly by getting big minutes in a less spotlight atmosphere. Rounding their game out by playing minutes in games instead of practice situations and like you said scrub minutes here and there in games. That league has a long way to go in terms of their D league and using it as a legitimate tool for their young players.

Joey24 is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 06:09 PM
  #807
MVP of West Hollywd
Registered User
 
MVP of West Hollywd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,756
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hyperglide View Post
He's a lot better then Blair, Thompson, Lin, Leonard, Favours and Haywood. C'mon now give your head a shake. Sure he has flaws but he's not a bad player. He's only 22. I bet you are a Luke Schenn hater too.
PER and per 36 adjusted stats

Blair - 17.6 PER, 16.1 pts/9.3 rebs/53% FG
Lin - 19.9 PER, 19.6 pts/8.3 asts/44.6% FG
Thompson - 14.9 PER, 18.5 pts/3.0 asts/44.3% FG
Leonard - 16.6 PER, 11.9 pts/7.7 rebs/2.0 stls/49.3 FG%
Favors - 17.1 PER, 14.9 pts/11.1 rebs/1.7 blks/49.9% FG
Hayward - 15.5 PER, 14.0 pts/4.1 rebs/3.7 asts/45.6 FG%
Derozan - 12.8 PER, 16.7 pts/3.4 rebs/2.1 asts/42.2 FG%

As you can see the only thing Deroan has over most of them is raw ppg, which is less impressive when having the worst shooting percentage over the group is taken into account. Players who put up a ppg/horrible shooting % combination on a bad team are fool's gold virtually every time.

By the way these are not scrap players. They are all good and valued talents. They are under the radar but talented guys. You look at a guy like Gordan Hayward who teams continue to underestimate. He is more athletic and explosive than Derozan (yes, look past his skin color and watch some youtube videos, the guy is legitimately an athlete), far more skilled as a ballhandler and a shooter, and has a great passing game and basketball IQ which Demar does not. Hayward is better than Demar at everything. And he had the 3rd least PER on that group. Klay Thompson probably had a better season as a rookie than Demar did in his 3rd year because he's already an elite 3pt shooter (2.5/6 per 36) which means he could fit on any team hitting open shots and spreading the floor - and he did this while scoring at a higher volume than Demar. After the all-star break when Curry got shut down he was basically a 20ppg first option for Golden State. Etc.

Derozan is no better than Gerald Henderson on Charlotte, who was picked 12th in the same draft Derozan went 9th. Henderson averaged 15pts per game on a bad percentage on the worst team of all time (the Bobcats) and is actually more physically gifted than Derozan, so there's little reason to separate them. If Derozan was on another team Raptor fans would brush him off as much as they do Henderson. Derozan is simply not every talented. He's an overrated athlete (much closer to B- than an A) and his skill game (ballhandling, shooting, passing) is subpar for shooters at this position. His best role long term is probably coming off the bench at the 2 and 3 spots and finishing fast breaks and doing off ball cutting stuff. I don't think he's a starter on a good team at all. Every bad team has a Derozan type that every stat except raw PPG says is a bench player, but they continue to look at volume shooting on a bad team as an indicator that he's someone to build around. Eventually when the talent gets better their 16ppg 42% turns into 10ppg 45%


Last edited by MVP of West Hollywd: 05-16-2012 at 06:16 PM.
MVP of West Hollywd is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 06:26 PM
  #808
MVP of West Hollywd
Registered User
 
MVP of West Hollywd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,756
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edgeworth View Post
So I'm still relatively new to basketball, been keeping my ears perked and trying to learn as much as I can. I have a legitimate interest in the game but everythign I hear about the Raptors sounds awful.

How would you fix the roster? Is Colangelo even a decent GM? I hear suhc mixed things on him.

Basically I'd like a rundown of the roster, who fits, who doesn't, and how people would fix it because I have no idea where to go to get the exposure HFboards can get for Basketball.
1. I'm incredibly out on Colangelo because his calling card is overpaying free agents and expecting it to work. In reality like most sports the NBA comes down to asset management and most UFAs, especially to a looked down upon market like TOR at least while the team is bad, end up overpaid and mediocre (Hedo, Kapono, Kleiza)

2. The best way for the team to improve is to fill the team with draft picks and not rush into short term deals to try and make the playoffs next year. It would be helpful if Colangelo could find a way to get better draft picks but nonetheless. In reality most players don't start adding to the W columns significantly until their 3rd season in the league so a target could be Valanciunas and the 2012 pick's 3rd season (which will be 2014-2015), by which point not only hopefully would they be impact players but they would also have other young draft picks beside them

This team dug itself into a massive hole by a combination of a few moves. First they got no young players in 07 and 08, they didn't have an 07 1st, then in 08 they traded the 1st (future all-star Roy Hibbert SMH) and a young PG (TJ Ford) for an old, expensive Jermaine O'Neal, who proved to have no value extremely quickly, as shown by Colangelo actually using a 1st and other assets to get rid of his contract half a season later. They then drafted non impact players in Derozan and Davis in 09 and 10, and they let Bosh leave in free agency and got nothing instead of trading him a year earlier for rebuilding assets like Denver did with Carmelo. As a result at the beginning of the 2010 season the Raptors had 0 assets and were building completely from scratch. The team has gotten no impact players from the 07, 08, 09 or 10 drafts and they got no impact assets in return for Bosh by not trading him. The only things of value they have are Bargnani all the way from 2006 (and well paid by this point) and Valanciunas who hasn't played yet and who likely take years to develop, to go along with some scrap players like Derozan/Davis/Johnson. Basically what this means is that the team is still 2-4 years in the lottery from having any kind of playing caliber young talent. If we hit on Valanciunas, 2012 draft pick, 2013 draft pick, 2014 draft pick I could see us putting it all together to make the playoffs with that young core by like 2015. It's a long long ways away but that's what the negligence and focus on short term FAs instead of long term assets from 07-10 does IMO. The team pushed all in for playoff runs in 07, 08, 09 and 10 without caring for what would happen after those runs, and now we're suffering for it. Bryan Colangelo has been one of the worst GMs in the league hands down since he got hired and I'm pretty sure he's going to add to his resume by overrating the current talent level of the team and making short term moves this summer to try and get them into the playoffs now instead of 3 years from now. The Raptors under Colangelo have basically been about their goals topping out at just making the playoffs and getting the profitability of a playoff run. The fact that his moves were greenlight and that he's still GM tells me this is as much about ownership as anything else. Ownership isn't committed to building an actual good team, they just want to make the playoffs and collect the cheques, and that is why this team will be offering Steve Nash a huge contract this summer, which would accomplish nothing but push the team towards a playoff run the next two years, while they ignore building a core to be good after that

MVP of West Hollywd is offline  
Old
05-16-2012, 08:40 PM
  #809
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
****. I had a reply like halfway done breaking down the team, then I accidentally closed the tab it was in. If I get around to writing it again, it's not going to be until later tonight.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-20-2012, 03:34 PM
  #810
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edgeworth View Post
So I'm still relatively new to basketball, been keeping my ears perked and trying to learn as much as I can. I have a legitimate interest in the game but everythign I hear about the Raptors sounds awful.

How would you fix the roster? Is Colangelo even a decent GM? I hear suhc mixed things on him.

Basically I'd like a rundown of the roster, who fits, who doesn't, and how people would fix it because I have no idea where to go to get the exposure HFboards can get for Basketball.
Alright, I'm going to get this in multiple posts so that I don't accidentally lose my work for the 3rd time part way through it:

1) does the team suck right now?

Yeah, they kinda do. The problem right now is that the roster is a mishmash of players that don't entirely fit together for a cohesive play style, and just that some of them aren't very good. If not for Dwane Casey, they probably would've won at least 5-6 fewer games than they did (whether or not that's a bad thing is debatable). But with that said, they have the components to improve, and will be getting another one in the upcoming draft. Now is probably a good time to get on board because you'll be here for the (hopeful) rise up the ranks over the next few years. I'll break down the players when we get there in the next post.

2) Colangelo

It's hard to say he's an awful GM, but he's certainly balancing out on the negative side of things right now. He's made some good moves (Parker, acquiring TJ Ford, acquiring Rasho Nesterovic) and he's made some bad moves (the O'Neal->Marion->Turkoglu->Barbosa->****-all debacle) and on the whole the bad outweigh the good. The other problem with him is that he seems to be a very reactionary trader, looking to make big fix after big fix for as long as he has the assets to do it. And he does this without considering the fit of incoming players. Just consider the string of trades I noted above. We go from Jermaine O'Neal to Shawn Marion, to Hedo Turkoglu, to Leandro Barbosa in the same chain of trades all built on one another. But each of those players is dramatically different and play dramatically different styles. So how do you try and mold a team around that when all of it happened within like 2 years. You can't just shift from interior/paint scoring to transition/fast-break to ball control/"point forward" back to transition/fast-break and expect that one of them will work.

FWIW, Raptors Republic has a nice rundown of the history of Brian Colangelo's trades (just trades, not FA signings or draft picks) with the Raptors here:

http://raptorsrepublic.com/2011/07/1...trades-part-i/
http://raptorsrepublic.com/2011/07/1...rades-part-ii/
http://raptorsrepublic.com/2011/07/1...ades-part-iii/

Note that those articles were written last summer. That said, the only trade that they miss is this year's deadline deal, shipping Barbosa to Indiana for a 2nd and cash.


DRAFTING
At the draft, it's hard to really strictly criticize him. On the one hand, all of Bargnani, DeRozan, and Davis feel like some degree of disappointment. None of them are sure-fire cornerstone players for a contending team right now (though you could make the case that Bargnani is at least reasonably close). But on the other hand, you look at the prospect ratings of the time and it's hard to say that any of those picks were particularly bad in terms of value or that there was a clear choice of player selected right after the Raptors choice that would've been an absolute worlds-better player.

2006
1st round
Raptors Pick: Andrea Bargnani (1st)
Next 6 Picks: LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams, Brandon Roy, Randy Foye

2nd round
Raptors Pick: P.J. Tucker (35th)
Any other 2nds of note: Daniel Gibson (42nd), Paul Millsap (47th)

Morrison is a complete bust in every sense. Thomas, Wililams, and Foye are all varying degrees of disappointment, ranging from significant to practically a bust. Aldridge is the only really nice player in the group, and I'd argue that he's not so much better than Bargnani that it makes a big difference. It's moreso that he's just a different kind of player.

The 2nd round was largely devoid of any real value. Millsap looks awesome now, but he was a left-field success story, and Gibson is a streaky shoot-first PG in a league that has too many streaky shoot-first PGs.

2007
Raptors Picks: None (they did acquire the rights to 57th pick Giorgos Printezis on draft night for a future 2nd)
Players available around where the Raptors would've drafted (22nd): Wilson Chandler, Rudy Fernandez (23 & 24)

both Chandler and Fernandez would've looked nice at SF, but this was out of Colangelo's hands, as the Raptors pick was traded away 3 years before the draft (2 years before Colangelo took over)

Printezis was a bust who was flipped for benchwarmer Alexis Ajinca. I guess the fact that a worthless 2nd rounder became a mostly-worthless roster player is a small victory though.

2008
Raptors Picks: None (strictly speaking. They acquired the rights to 2nd rounder Nathan Jawai on draft night as part of a larger trade)
Players available where the Raptors would've picked (17th): Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee, J.J. Hickson

Toronto traded its 1st to Indiana in the Jermaine O'Neal deal. Technically, it was Toronto who picked Roy Hibbert at 17, but it was for Indiana and the trade was completed as soon as the Pacers selected Nathan Jawai in the 2nd round and all the other pieces were set and some salary snafus were worked out. I already noted that this was not a smart move as a trade earlier. It's not fair to re-rate it as poor drafting as well. FWIW, the Raptors original 2nd rounder was used to select Goran Dragic by San Antonio for Phoenix. Toronto traded the pick in the previous year to get Giorgos Printezis. I've never thought it fair to flog teams for missing 2nd rounders though given how scattershot 2nd round success stories are.

2009
1st round
Raptors Pick: DeMar DeRozan (9th)
Subsequent Picks: Brandon Jennings, Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson, Tyler Hansborough, Earl Clark

2nd round
Raptors Pick: None

DeRozan is fringing on disappointment right now because he hasn't demonstrably improved much over his 3 years in the league. But at the end of the day, there wasn't much else for the Raptors to take at that point. People like Brandon Jennings, but I think he's overrated and another case of a so-called "combo guard" which is really just code for "SG in a PG's body", and those tend to kill teams more than they help. The rest of that batch is busts and bench players. People talk about Jrue Holliday and Ty Lawson who went 17th and 18th, saying they were rated higher and slid. But if Colangelo failed at that, so did at least 8-10 other GMs. And I'm not going to hang a failure on a GM when a third of the league makes the same mistake. Toronto's 2nd rounder was traded a year or two before to get Carlos Delfino. Delfino eventually became Amir Johnson, while that pick became Jonas Jerebko. At worst for the Raptors that's a wash.


2010
1st round
Raptors Pick: Ed Davis (13th)
Subsequent Picks: Patrick Patterson, George Sanders, Luke Babbitt, Kevin Seraphin, Eric Bledsoe

2nd round
Raptors Pick: Solomon Alabi (selected & traded to Raps by Dallas)
Other 2nds of note: None

Davis looked great in his rookie year. Less so this season. So now with Valanciunas coming in and Bargnani & Amir still on the roster we start wondering if there's a place for him on this team given his sometimes lackadaisical attitude. But with that said, it was still the best pick at that point in the draft. He was expected to go higher and basically fell into Toronto's lap, and I'm not sure you can say any of the next batch of players taken would've been better (some people like Eric Bledose, but he's basically the backcourt version of Davis in terms of proving he belongs near the top of an NBA rotation.)

In the 2nd round the Raptors got Alabi picked for them by Dallas. He isn't necessarily looking like an NBA player at this point, but there's literally nothing else in the draft after that pick where you could say it's a significantly better option.


2011
1st round
Raptors Pick: Jonas Valanciunas (5th)
Subsequent Picks: Jan Vesley, Bismack Biyombo, Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette.

2nd round
Raptors Pick: None
Other 2nds of note: Chandler Parsons, Isiah Thomas

No problems with this pick at all. Jonas looks like a steal at 5 in that draft, and scouts believe he would be the 2nd pick this year if he were in the class of 2012 (and if he were in North America he would be based on the NCAA/age requirements). I'm not even going to bother looking at the other guys because there's absolutely no case you can make to me that puts them ahead of Valanciunas. 2nd round pick was packaged with the previous year's 2nd for Delfino. Nothing in that 2nd round so far would give me pause for losing the pick though.

FREE AGENCY
FA Signings are hard to really criticize Colangelo for because most of them have either worked (Parker, Garbajosa) or been irrelevant and minor. Technically the Turkoglu acquisition was a sign & trade and blew up in the team's face, but we've already looked at that as a failure trade. On the flip side it's hard to really bash him for players leaving since most have been middling. The only significant failure on his part was not getting more out of Bosh orchestrating his way to Miami. Part of that is on Bosh for being a dick about the process and not being up front about his intentions like Carmelo Anthony (though I didn't agree with Anthony's dictating where he wanted to go). But part of it is on Colangelo for not moving on Bosh when he had the opportunity.



A full recounting of pretty much everything Colangelo has ever done as an NBA GM can be found here.

http://hoopshype.com/general_manager..._colangelo.htm

The Raptors stuff is basically from March '06 on.

Overall for Colangelo he does OK at the draft, which becomes "pretty good" when you consider that while he didn't hit any home runs, he also made the best out of a lot of iffy picks in terms of available player value. He does OK to good signing players to FA deals, though most of hte time he's just getting complementary piecse. The biggest blow against him is that he's an awful trader. He makes reactionary, quick-fix deals that look like they're just engineered to get the big name regardless of fit or whether or not the player has much left in the tank. He does seem to do a good job in terms of staffing though. Gheredini is good in the front office, the Nuggets GM was hired out of the Raptors front office, and Casey looks like a great head coach now and for the future.

In all honesty, I think the team needs to make decent pick in the upcoming draft (though that will be a tough job unless they can move up the board) and have a good growth year or it might be time to re-evaluate Colangelo's job security. Of course, I thought the same thing about the San Jose Sharks coaching staff/front office after this last season, and they not only didn't burn down the management structure, they appear to have barely changed it at all. So take what you will out of my predictive abilities.



Alright, I have to head out for a couple hours. I'll reserve a post after this one for me to write the roster analysis and then get to it later when I can.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-20-2012, 03:35 PM
  #811
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Now onto part 3 of the above post


THE ROSTER

First we're going to look at the players who are potentially departing as UFAs. For each player I'm also putting a "re-sign rating" to indicate how strongly I feel about retaining that player. It ranges from 5 (keep at all costs) to 0 (I'm entirely neutral about them being re-signed) and down to -5 (I will revolt if they are on the roster next year).

After that we'll move on to the remainder of the players who are under contract for the coming season, or are RFA. Oh, and Valanciunas even though he doesn't have a contract yet.

NOTES
Stats are only for the player's time with Toronto last season.

*11-12 salaries with an asterisk are the amount the player earned on a pro-rated deal to play a portion of the season with the Raptors.

Stats in bold italics indicate the player led the team in that category


FREE AGENTS


11-12 Salary: $196,695*
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
16(8)22.34.8.351.000.583.73.90.191.0010.5

Uzoh came to the Raptors late in the season when injuries to Jerryd Bayless and later Jose Calderon left the team with nothing at the point and playing Gary Forbes out of position. He played the last quarter(ish) of the season and got some starts to close out the year.

Player Breakdown
Uzoh is regarded as an athletic, slashing PG who can get to the rim and score and also rebound some, but he lacks ideal PG skills, particularly he doesn't have great court vision. He also isn't a very good shooter, which hurts his ability to drive and distribute since defenders can back off on him and play the angles more.

Season at-a-glance
The Good: Uzoh recorded the Raptors' only triple-double of the season in the very last game. He also looked decent as a scoring option, notching about 5 points per game along with just over 3 assists and almost 4 rebounds.

The Bad: As advertised, Uzoh is a poor shooter, hitting at about 35% from the field (the worst percentage among players who finished the year on the roster). He also inflated his assist totals somewhat due to playing 8+ games getting prime minutes with other starters.

The Ugly: Shooting less than 60% at the free throw line is pretty brutal when you're not a big man. The fact that Uzoh even got some starts is a testament to the dire situation of the Raps' PGs, and in no way a signal of Uzoh's talent level.

The Future
Honestly, I don't expect him back. Some team will probably take a chance on him as a backup PG or 3rd string rotation guard. With Calderon around at least for a little while and Bayless probably getting the bulk of the backup minutes (and taking over as the starter if there's a trade), not to mention the glut of players who can do what Uzoh does already on the roster and in the backcourt, Uzoh would likely be relegated to the bench almost full time with the Raptors, hoping for a trade to get him into the game.

Bottom Line: He was a surprisingly adept injury fill-in, but there's just no place on the team for him right now.
Re-Sign Rating: -1 (I wouldn't be too upset if he came back, but if he does, it's not a good decision)

*************************


11-12 Salary: $220,487*
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
17(12)27.19.6.387.393.851.52.00.180.298.7

Like Uzoh, Anderson was a late-season add to try and cover for injuries and a loss of offensive punch. When James Johnson and DeRozan both ended up hurt, it opened the door for Anderson to get a bunch of starts and more minutes than he would've expected when signing a pair of 10-day contracts

Player Breakdown
Anderson is a physically strong SF/SG who can score in the post and hit shots when left open all the way out to 3-point range. He possesses a solid all-around offensive game and is capable of coming off the bench to hit a few quick shots and get into a scoring groove. However he lacks elite athleticism for either position and will struggle against more agile defenders. Also for being touted as a good defender in college, he's struggled to rebound at the professional level against bigger opponents and has posted poor block and steal #s

Season at-a-glance
The Good: He put up 9 games of scoring in double figures in April when he was given extra minutes to compensate for all the extra injuries. He also hit several big shots late in games to keep the Raps in games or give them the lead.

The Bad: 6'6 isn't great size for a 2/3 swingman, but the league is filled with guys at that height or smaller who can rebound the ball well. So it's a bit of a downer to realize that Anderson never once grabbed more than 4 boards in any given game for the Raptors. Even getting increased minutes didn't cause corresponding bumps in his rebound rate. As primarily a spot-up shooter and post scorer, he also didn't get to the line very often.

The Ugly: Though he scored well and got more minutes because of injuries, it's also pretty clear that he knew that the Raptors needed him in the lineup and took advantage of the fact. As the season wore on, he became more and more of a volume shooter. Taking more shots, more 3 pointers and basically ignoring his shooting percentages. These outings included a game against the Heat where he was 0-8 from 3 point range, and the very next game vs Detroit where he went 0-4 from behind the arc as part of an overall 2-12 day shooting.

The Future
In spite of gaining some popularity as a potential bench scorer, Anderson is in the same boat as Uzoh: He's just too far down the depth chart with too many guys who can do what he does. This return to the NBA (his Raptors stint was his first batch of NBA minutes in 4 years) might have been enough to keep him in the league, but not with a team that has as many SGs and SFs as Toronto

Bottom Line: See Uzoh. He was a very good emergency scorer, but his future is likely outside of Toronto.
Re-Sign Rating: 1 (unlike Uzoh who I don't see a place for and don't like his flaws at his position, I'd be more OK with Anderson as a depth option to provide points)

*************************


11-12 Salary: $1,325,181
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
34(1)11.01.2.378.000.260.23.30.290.122.7

The first Canadian-born player in Raptors history, Magloire was brought in to provide veteran leadership and some grit at center. He started the home opener (no doubt as a sort of fan nod to the fact that he's from Ontario), but then played sparingly after that. Most of his contributions were in garbage time or to go out and absorb foul calls against opposing big men when the other, better Cs/PFs were in foul trouble or needed for key moments in the game.

Player Breakdown
We're a long way away from the time when Magloire was an all-star with the then-Charlotte Hornets. He has little athleticism anymore and almost no offence aside from putbacks, but he can still rebound OK and at least play a physical enough game to push back against strong centers and grind them down. His career is clearly in its end stages at this point and he would have little value around the league except as a big body on the end of the bench and a sideline cheerleader

Season at-a-glance
The Good: Well, he got a good ovation for the home opener where he started. He also seemed to always be the first guy off the bench to cheer and congratulate players for big plays. He also collected 10 boards in an early-season game vs the Knicks

The Bad: Magloire played less and less as the season went on and it became clear that Aaron Gray, Amir Johnson, and even Solomon Alabi could provide more meaningful minutes at center than him. It looks pretty cringe-worthy to collect over a million dollars to almost never take your warm-ups off. He played only 3 games all of April, averaging 5 minutes.

The Ugly: 25% from the line. That is not a typo or a mistake. He really did only hit one quarter of his free throws.

The Future
There's not much of one for Magloire. Whether it's in Toronto or elsewhere, he'll be in for a long season of sitting on the end of the bench and getting a lot of DNP-CDs in the box score.

Bottom Line: For the veteran minimum, he seems like a likeable enough guy to have be your 14th/15th man on the roster. And I guess it's worth it for the Raptors to have a Canadian face.
Re-Sign Rating: 0 (in spite of what I just said, I really couldn't care less what happens with him)

*************************


11-12 Salary: $2,500,000
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
49(40)16.63.9.516.000.530.65.70.350.4511.1

After an early season scare with some heart issues. Gray eased into the lineup and eventually took over as the starting C, playing more and more minutes as the season went on. In fact he played every game from February to the end of the year except for the season finale vs the Nets.

Player Breakdown
Gray is a prototypical NBA center: He's big, he's burly, he lacks high-end athleticism and fluidity, and he falls squarely into the defensive side of the equation with some offensive prowess under the basket. In the past he's had conditioning issues and that's led to problems staying in the game and committing lazy fouls. It appears that he's curbed that somewhat last year, only fouling out of games twice in spite of logging heavy minutes against the opponent's starting big men. Fans no doubt remember his 20 point, 20 rebound super game vs the Raptors 2 years ago when he was a Chicago Bull, but really he's more of a low-end scoring option, only getting to double figures a handful of times in the year. What he will give you though is a decent rebound rate and a big enough body to clog the lane and alter shots.

Season at-a-glance
The Good: Just getting onto the court is a big plus for Gray after the scare of the heart issues in the pre-season. Once he got onto the court he managed to play a solid role for the team playing heavy minutes and even though he didn't collect eye-popping stat totals for a center, he still was able to influence the game and help anchor coach Casey's defensive setup. He also posted career high rebounding totals and minutes.

The Bad: His steal and block rates are not really that great for a center who camps in the paint like Gray. Averaging a block every 3 games looks particularly poor.

The Ugly: It's not really his fault, but I think a lot of people were underwhelmed by Gray because their only memory of him was putting up that monster game as a member of the opposition in 10-11. So I think there were some unfair expectations that he would be a guy who could collect double-doubles on occasion for the Raptors (he ended with 2 all season, and only 1 other game where he managed 10+ points)

The Future
If there's one guy in the Raptors' FA pool that I'd like to see back, it's Gray. He's probably miscast as a starter, but he looks like a valuable center off the bench and would be a good player to help teach the NBA brand of defence to Valanciunas and to fill the starting hole until Jonas is ready to take over in the starting 5. The problem for Toronto is that lots of teams want decent centers, so it's possible that someone out there throws stupid money at him to be their backup.

Bottom Line: The one "must sign" on the Raptors FA list from my perspective, but it might be a tough battle to get him back before another team gives him big money.
Re-Sign Rating: 4

*************************

now, the players who are (or will be) under contract for next season, sorted from 12-13 projected salary, highest to lowest:

UNDER CONTRACT



12-13 Salary: $10,561,983
Contract Years Remaining: One
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
53(53)33.910.5.457.423.888.83.00.060.8916.7

After posting a bit of a down year in 10-11, Calderon rebounded to post his best overall season since his excellent 08-09. Unfortunately his season was somewhat marred by missing 13 games in the late stages, preventing him from putting a cap on a year that showed he could still perform as one of the NBA's better offensive/facilitating PGs.

Player Breakdown
Calderon has two calling cards: He takes good care of the ball, posting an excellent assist/turnover ratio, and he can hit shots at the line and from 3 point range. Injuries have sapped him of the mobility he had when he was younger, and it hurts his ability to get into the lane and spread the defence. And speaking of defence, his lesser mobility is also a problem when it comes to defending the league's quicker point guards. Casey's defensive system has helped mask that issue somewhat, but it's clear that Calderon not someone who would be out defending in crunch time if there were better options.

Season at-a-glance
The Good: There was a lot to like about Calderon this year. His shot was back, his assist totals were solid, his turnover and foul rates dipped slightly. After 10-11 there were questions about whether or not Calderon could continue being a starter in this league as his play dropped and people wondered if age and injuries were catching up. He effectively answered that last season.

The Bad: Those games he missed this season? Another leg/ankle injury. When he's already suffered problems with his legs, hamstrings, and ankles and is showing reduced mobility because of it, the last thing you want is for him to roll his ankle again and potentially worsen the damage

The Ugly: His man-to-man defence remains pretty awful, but Coach Casey has shown somewhat of a knack for disguising that with systems and schemes. Really there's not much I can say I was especially disappointed with out of Calderon last season.Well, I guess the one bad thing is that for this season, Calderon is the highest paid player on the team, in spite of not being the best player on it.

The Future
He's entering the final year of his contract for 12-13. That makes him prime trade bait for a Raptors team that is getting younger and looking to add more young players and picks. And teams always want game-managing point guards. Could this be Jose's last year in Toronto? Until then, the starting PG job is unquestioningly his.

Bottom Line: From now until the day he puts on another uniform, he will start at PG whenever health permits. And he will continue to drive the Toronto offence and be one of the league's unheralded high end playmakers.

12-13 Role:
Starting Point Guard
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: Trade bait to add more youth to the core. Worst Case: Winds down his career as a still-useful off-the-bench and mentor PG.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $10,000,000
Contract Years Remaining: Two, plus a 3rd year with an Early Termination Option
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
31(31)33.319.5.432.296.872.05.50.480.5818.0

It was Bargnani's second year as the focal point of the Raptors offence, and his first year away from Jay Triano's awkward forcing of him into the role of center. With Dwane Casey returning him to his natural PF spot, Bargnani responded with a solid season putting up similar numbers to last year in a much slower offence, and even starting the year among the league's leading scorers. There are still question marks on whether or not he's a #1 offensive option for a playoff team, but at least for one year he's put off the calls for his head and re-established his value as an offensive mismatch. Unfortunately, a start that seemed to have him on track to go to the all-star game was derailed by a leg injury that forced him to miss half the year, twice coming back only to exit again after a few games.

Player Breakdown
There are very few players in the league who can provide the skill package of Bargnani. He's 7 feet tall, but can move much quicker than his frame suggests, and has incredible range and a dead-eye shot. He's also showing a much better ability to score closer to the pain with pivot moves and pump fakes. He's also a quietly effective scorer, capable of putting up 20-30 points with seemingly little effort and fanfare. That said, there are still serious questions about his defensive effectiveness and commitment, and even though Coach Casey seems to have instilled a bit more responsibility into his game on the defensive end, he's still basically scratching and clawing to just be passable defensively. His lack of toughness also hurts him when he gets down low with powerful opposing big men and sees him blocked out on rebound opportunities far more than he should be.

Season at-a-glance
The Good: Bargnani showed that he could still score at an elite level even in the slowed down, more controlled Casey-run offence. Before he went down with his leg injury he was putting up gaudy offensive totals, averaging over 20-25 points per game with ease. In January alone he averaged 24+ points per game, and that included a 10 point low in the game where he hurt himself and exited early, and missing 9 of the next 11 games. He also seemed to have cut the move I had nicknamed "The Bargnani" out of his repertoire. You might remember "The Bargnani" as his patented move of catching the ball at the 3-point line, pump faking to get the defender off their feet, then taking one step inside the line and hoisting up the 22-footer. Thankfully he seems to have learned that he can execute that pump fake to remove the defender from the equation and actually then use his speed to get down to 10-15 feet from the basket, if not right to the rim.

The Bad: That leg injury. Bargs seemed assured of going to the all-star game and showing he could be the player he was expected to become when he was drafted. And then it all went up in smoke and made worse by multiple failed attempts to come back early and fight through it. In late February, during his second attempted comeback, he was noticeably hobbled, putting up a season-low average of 15 points per game and having multiple games where he finished with less than 10 points.

The Ugly: Rebounding. The maddening part of Bargnani's game is always that a man who is legitimately 7 feet tall can't grab a rebound to save his life. The coaching staff set a very public goal for him to get just 7 rebounds a game, reasoning he could get 2 per quarter in all the minutes he played, and just find one more in the entire game to reach the total. It seems like he should be able to do that almost by accident. So what does he do? He averages 6.6 boards in January and seems to be finally getting it. Then the leg gets hurt and he responds with less than 5 boards a game in February and March and just over 5 in April. The end result is a 5.6 rebound per game average, which is poor for a 7 footer, but still represents his second highest season total in his career.

The Future
It's going to be important to see how well Bargnani responds coming back from his injury with a full off-season to recover. If he can play like he did in January, he's the centerpiece everyone thought he could be. But if he plays like he did the rest of the season, it's going to continue to make him the scapegoat for Raptor struggles and strengthen the calls to trade him while he still has value around the league.

Bottom Line: Short of the team ending up with the top pick and Anthony Davis, Bargnani is going to continue being the key cog in the Toronto attack for the foreseeable future. It's just going to be interesting to see if he gets off to a strong start that puts the end of 11-12 behind him, or falters and ends up starting the rumor mill again.

12-13 Role: Starting PF and leading scorer
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: Top-10 in the league scorer and key Raptors cog with Valanciunas Worst Case: Soft, perimeter scorer capable of being a good team's #2 or 2b option, potentially not with the Raptors.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $6,000,000
Contract Years Remaining: Two, plus a 3rd Non-Guaranteed year
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
64(43)24.37.1.576.400.691.26.41.080.5214.4

Amir was pushed into an unusual situation this year. With Aaron Gray out of the lineup early and Jamaal Magloire not a starting NBA center (or backup NBA center), the 6'9ish Johnson was the Raptors #1 center for a time. After that he ended up getting more starts filling in for the injured Bargnani while occasionally defaulting to what should be his ideal role: an off-the-bench high-energy big man.

Player Breakdown
While he may not live up to the big contract extension he got from the Raptors, Amir has found his groove as a player who crashes the boards hard, can score around the bucket with his athleticism, and run the floor with the rest of the team. He's not a great defender and he still fouls more than you'd like, which takes him off the court a little too much, but you're willing to take that to get the spark and fire that he brings to the court and can energize the team with.

Season at-a-glance

The Good: He managed to not look out of place playing center. Granted he was overmatched by the best of them, and it's not an ideal situation, but it's not like he was a horrible, abject failure from the position. He actually put up his best, most consistent rebounding numbers in the early stages of the season when he would've been filling in for Aaron Gray.

The Bad: Fouls continue to haunt him. He had 10 games where he racked up 5 fouls and 2 more where he fouled out. And too often those spurts of fouling ended up costing him minutes on the floor.

The Ugly:
That contract. While it's easy to make a case for not using the amnesty clause on him, it's a little tough to swallow paying $6 million (a total that will increase in subsequent years) to a guy whose ceiling is "high energy bench player who fouls too much"

The Future
Unless Colangelo bites the bullet and amnesties Johnson, he's going to continue to be the designated sparkplug for the Raptors for a few more years.

Bottom Line: It's easy to forget that for all his time in the league, Johnson is just 25 years old. He should continue to be the top PF/C reserve off the bench and an occasional injury fill-in in the starting lineup. His time at center should also thankfully wind down so long as the Raptors can retain Gray or find another center to take the load off of Valanciunas.

12-13 Role: Starting C if the team doesn't sign anyone else. 4/5 energy guy off the bench if they do.
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: 2nd unit frontcourt sparkplug who can give you a few pts-rebs double-doubles. Worst Case: foul-prone energy who can't stay in the game enough to justify his salary, and either eating cap space or forcing management's hand with the amnesty clause.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $4,600,000
Contract Years Remaining: One, plus a 2nd year with a Player Option.
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
49(3)21.69.7.402.346.810.94.10.080.4712.5

After going through microfracture surgery to repair a severe knee injury, Kleiza came back last season to try and prove he could still contribute in the NBA. He missed the first 10 games of the season, then eased his way into the rotation at small forward, rebranding himself as more of a spot-up shooter capable of getting inside from time to time.

Player Breakdown
Kleiza has altered his game from where he was just a few years ago. Thanks to a serious knee injury, he no longer has the quickness and burst he possessed previously, and must rely more on smarts and guile to score. He can also still rebound with some effectiveness too. His primary role now appears to be coming off the bench and trying to catch fire, as he is a very streaky scorer.

Season at-a-glance
The Good: Kleiza managed to show that he's still got some usefulness providing points and rebounds in a reserve role, even with his rebuilt knee. He also showed a knack for hitting big shots and sparking scoring runs with the bench players.

The Bad: For every game in which Kleiza was able to post double-digit point totals and be pace the 2nd unit, he had one where he struggled to find his shot and posted sub-par numbers. His lack of agility also hurt his defensive output. While he was never a high end defender, he was at least a capable one. Now he shows that he can be beat by many of the league's quicker forwards.

The Ugly: If Amir Johnson isn't #1 on a given fan/media personality's list of most desirable amnesty candidates, Kleiza probably is. There were questions about giving him the contract he received when he was just a mediocre bench player. Now that he's a mediocre bench player playing on a seriously damaged knee, it looks even worse. Like Johnson, it's no guarantee that Toronto even uses the amnesty clause on him, but for a team that would love to really get its finances in order before it rebuilds into a potential contender, paying $4.6m to occasionally provide a scoring hot streak isn't an ideal setup.

The Future
If Kleiza isn't an amnesty candidate, he'll just continue in his current role. If the Raptors find a SF in the draft, it probably will be Kleiza's minutes that are cut into in order to give the newbie the playing time he'll need. But if the draft doesn't yield another small forward, and Kleiza remains on the team, then he'll just carry on in his current role for the remainder of his contract.

Bottom Line: For better or worse, Kleiza will probably be part of the 12-13 Raptors, doing just enough to make you not hate the money he pulls in for his contributions.

12-13 Role: Second unit SF assuming they don't get one in the draft.
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: Crafty bench scorer who can give you double figure scoring and the occasional hot-streak-driven 20, and 5-8 rebounds every once and a while. Worst Case: Amnestied within a couple of years and/or his knees disintegrate.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $4,164,882 (This is the amount that the Raptors must pay as a qualifying offer. His actual salary may vary from this amount, but I believe will not be less than this.)
Contract Years Remaining: Unknown, pending him receiving a new contract.
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
31(11)22.711.4.424.423.853.82.10.130.7717.8

When Leandro Barbosa was traded to the Pacers, the primary beneficiary of that move on the Raptors roster appeared to be Bayless. After all, he was the perfect player to slide into Barbosa's role as the 6th man and primary bench scorer. Unfortunately for Bayless, he suffered a hip injury, then almost immediately injured his oblique upon returning. In the end he missed 16 games to close out the season, marring what was shaping up to be his best season as a pro to this point in his career. Now he enters the off-season as the one key restricted free agent on the Raptors to-do list.

Player Breakdown


To this point I've done a fair amount of complaining about combo guards. Decrying them as an invention of the recent NBA in order to create a player class that is accepting of the idea of a guy who plays like a shooting guard, but whose small size limits him to the point guard position, and whose inclination toward scoring causes their playmaking to suffer. But in spite of that, I like Bayless as a player. He has shown an increasing dedication to playing the "proper" role of a point guard and distributing the ball. He's been around 4 assists per game in his 2 years in Toronto, and in his starts with the Raptors he was up above 6 assists per game.

While Bayless still won't be confused with a pass-first PG, the fact that he's adding the playmaking dimension to his game is a big plus because he's already shown himself to be a capable scorer and a very solid shooter, particularly behind the arc. He was key for the Raptors several times last season coming off the bench and providing instant offence. Bayless also has added value as a solid defender, whose quickness allows him to hound opposing players and stay with them much easier.

Season at-a-glance
The Good:
Before going down with his injuries late in the season, Bayless was having an excellent string of games. From March 2nd until the 17th, He scored in double figures in all but 2 games, and had several games at or over 20 points, including a pair of games against Memphis and Charlotte where he had 28 and 29 points and solid assist numbers to go along with it. He also showed an improved stroke from behind the line, leading the team in 3-point shooting.

The Bad: Except for the injuries, Bayless had an overall good season. He rarely went into prolonged slumps. He even looked solid filling in as a starter for 11 games this year. On a team that had an overall poor season, Bayless was a bright spot.

The Ugly: Injuries were an ongoing problem for Bayless. He missed 13 games early in the year because of a sprained ankle, then 4 more after re-injuring the same ankle. Then a hip pointer, and finally the oblique injury to close out the year. All told he missed roughly half the season. And for a player that's never played a full season in his career, that's a bit of a concern.

The Future
Bayless' contract with the team might be cause for concern, as it's possible that a team looking for a solid scoring PG could try to poach him from the Raptors. But barring that, it seems likely that hte Raptors would do everything they can to ensure he's on the team for the forseeable future.

Bottom Line: Especially with the possibility of Calderon being on the way out as a trade piece, Bayless could be as important as any other Raptor this coming season. At worst for him he'll be the 2012-13 Leandro Barbosa, coming off the bench to run the 2nd offensive unit. At best he could take over as the starter in a pinch.

12-13 Role: second unit PG, backcourt 6th man and leading bench scorer
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: He gets his assist totals up and becomes a useful starting PG Worst Case: Leandro Barbosa 2.0, capable of giving you 15 points off the bench. Only with better D than Barbosa provided.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $3,344,250
Contract Years Remaining: One (becomes RFA after coming season)
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
63(63)35.016.7.422.261.812.03.30.270.7612.9

This was supposed to be the year that DeRozan took the next step. The year for him to help pick up the offence and be the key scorer on the team alongside Bargnani. But a funny thing happened along the way to moving up a tier in the NBA scoring pantheon. DeRozan worked on a 3 point shot, fell in love with it, and shot himself right out of ball games. He would show up for a few games, scoring 20-30 points and looking for all the world like the player he was supposed to be. Then he would fall off the map and have a terrible game or two where he recorded less than 10 points. At the end of the day, except for a small jump in his 3 point percentage, 2011-12 DeMar DeRozan was virtually identical to the 2010-11 version.

Player Breakdown
DeRozan's calling card is his scoring ability. He's an athletic swingman who can get to the net and leap over defenders. He also has the ability to shoot from mid-range and score in bunches.

Unfortunately, his skill set is somewhat one-dimensional. For all his athleticism, he rebounds poorly and doesn't defend nearly as well as he could. His shooting range is also limited as you get out toward the 3 point line. He also isn't as good of a ball-handler as you might expect from a guy who prefers to attack the rim and play one-on-one with his defender.

Season at-a-glance
The Good: When his shooting touch was at its peak, DeRozan showed why he was a high draft pick. He had 8 games of 25 points or more and was able to score seemingly at will. He also was the most durable Raptor in the starting lineup, playing and starting all but 3 games this season, his first missed games in his NBA career

The Bad: When his shot wasn't falling, DeRozan was almost invisible, or worse yet, highly visible as a non-factor. He had 13 games in which he finished with 10 points or less, almost all of them coming with significant minutes. His rebounding was also atrocious considering how much emphasis Coach Casey put on improving that aspect of the team. His season high was 8 rebounds, and most of the time he grabbed 1 to 4 boards, finishing with an average of 3.3 boards for the year. To put that in perspective, the only regulars who finished the year with the Raptors with less boards were the two point guards (Bayless & Calderon), seldom-used swingman Gary Forbes, and perimter shooter Alan Anderson. Or, put another way, Solomon Alabi outrebounded DeRozan in spite of the fact that he played just over 1/5th the minutes per game of the shooting guard. Ben freaking Uzoh, a smallish point guard outrebounded DeRozan. It's actually a surprise that his rebounding didn't end up in the "ugly" section. But that's because there was another glaring issue with DeRozan's season namely....

The Ugly: ...his 3-point shooting. You have to be a TERRIBLE 3 point shooter to consider shooting 26% as a rousing success. but even though he made a 16% improvement over his 10-11 numbers, it's still unacceptable that in spite of such poor numbers, he still chose to almost double his three point attempts. His game log is littered with 0-fers as he would pull up for poorly timed 3s and clank them off the rim. No one expects DeRozan to becomes the next Ray Allen, but he should at least be able to hit a 3 from time to time to be able to keep the defence from cutting off his ability to get to the rim.

The Future
For all the doom and gloom about DeRozan, he's still the clear #2 option on the team in terms of scoring behind Andrea Bargnani, at least for the forseeable future, and is the team's starting shooting guard until such time as they find a better option. With the draft looking likley to end with the Raptors adding someone to their backcourt, DeRozan might find himself shifting to Small Forward more often in the coming years. Or he may continue on his current path. But regardless, he's either going to need to show increased scoring consistency or a wider breadth of skills on the court or he'll find himself relegated to the bench or looking for work elsewhere.

Bottom Line: This is a make-or-break yaer for DeRozan. He needs to make some kind of meaningful addition to his game to avoid being labeled as a one-dimensional scorer who can't contribute enough elsewhere to justify receiving significant minutes on anything better than a bottom-tier team.

12-13 Role: Starting SG
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: consistent 20 PPG and long term starting SG Worst Case: "microwave" scorer who comes off the bench to give you 14-18 on most nights, but the occasional clunker.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $2,207,040
Contract Years Remaining: One plus 2nd year as a Team Option (becomes RFA at expiry of current contract)
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
66(9)23.26.3.513.000.670.96.60.950.6114.2

After a successful rookie season that was shortened by a knee injury in the summer league, it was expected that Davis' sophomore year would see him take an increased role in the frontcourt along with the other young roster players. But instead, Davis' numbers regressed across the board. He played fewer minutes, scored less, shot worse, collected fewer rebounds and generally found himself less effective and passed over in favor of other options at the 4.

Player Breakdown

Davis is an interior scoring PF who uses his length and quickness for his size to break the defender down and get easy buckets. He's also displayed a penchant for grabbing rebounds and altering shots. Still, he's not yet strong enough to handle the size of most quality NBA power forwards, and he is still raw offensively without a reliable jumper or developed post game. He also has displayed a somewhat passive attitude on the court, refusing to assert himself when he had an advantage, and getting pushed by players more willing to force their will upon him.

Season at-a-glance
The Good:In spite of his regression, Davis still shot a very solid 51% from the field and didn't turn the ball over much in spite of his raw ball skills. He also displayed occasional flashes of the player that the team envisioned when they drafted him, putting up double-doubles on multiple occasions, punctuated by a 24-12 game to close out the season. He also showed that his knee injury from his rookie year was not an ongoing concern, as he was the only Raptor to play in every game, and except for a 3-minute game vs Phoenix, he never played less than 10 minutes in any given game.

The Bad: The lack of progress is troubling. It didn't simply seem like a sophomore jinx, it felt more like he just wasn't pushing himself to improve. He also had too many games of 4 points an 4 rebounds, or 8 points and 2 rebounds, or generally just sort of coasting through his minutes and collecting the kind of stats that he should conceivably be able to get just by being in the game with zero effort.

The Ugly: Davis' apparent attitude. It's not fair to say from the outside that Davis was lazy or disinterested during this year, but that's what it looked like. He came across with a sort of "aww, shucks. Whatever happens, happens." view on the game and his contributions. He didn't ever seem angry or frustrated by his inconsistency or ineffectiveness.

The Future
Davis is still young with plenty of time to step up and reclaim the promise he showed in his rookie year. But with the addition of Jonas Valanciunas, the frontcourt is going to get more crowded, and Davis is going to need to show that he can do something that stands out from the pack and warrants him getting continued rotation minutes.

Bottom Line: If DeRozan has the most to prove this coming year to secure his future with the team, Davis might not be far behind Hopefully a full training camp and some sessions in the weight room can lead to a stronger, more fierce Davis who can avoid being crushed by the wealth of 4s and 5s on the roster.

12-13 Role: Second unit PF if Amir Johnson remains a primary center or PF/C swing. It gets hazier if the Raptors add more center depth.
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: Excellent second unit PF or good starter if the Raptors trade Bargnani. Worst Case: Frustrating bench PF who never gives you enough to be satisfied given his talent.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $2,812,006
Contract Years Remaining: One (becomes RFA after the coming year)
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
62(40)25.29.1.450.317.702.04.71.351.1514.5

Nobody seemed to benefit more from the installation of Coach Casey and his defence-heavy system than James Johnson. In one year he went from aimless, role-less space-filler to versatile, defensive stalwart and highly useful rotation player.

Player Breakdown

Johnson is best described as a jack-of-all-trades small forward. He's quick enough to defend small forwards and shooting guards, and long enough to stand up to power forwards on the perimeter. It wasn't unusual to see a Johnson stat line of 8 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and a block in any given game. He can do a little bit of everything on the court, and he is more than capable of using his speed and agility to influence plays on the defensive end even if he seems out of position.

However, his offensive game is somewhat limited. He's a good enough shooter, but not a great one, and if his path to the basket is blocked, he can sometimes get stuck putting up difficult jumpers which hurt his offensive output. His aggressive defensive style also tends to get him in trouble from time to time, and usually when his minutes have been limited in a game, it's because he's glued to the bench thanks to one too many quick fouls.

Season at-a-glance
The Good:
Like I said earlier, the best Johnson stat lines are ones that are a fantasy gold mine. He was the team's leader in steals and blocks per game, top 5 in rebounds, top 5 in assists among players other than the team's point guards, and generally more impactful in more categories than anyone else on the roster. For example, the season opener saw him post a line of 5 points, 6 rebounsd, 5 assists, 3 blocks,and 2 steals. Or against Portland in January he scored a season-high 23 points and backed that with 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals.

The Bad: His play can be erratic and out-of-control, so when things go badly he can start trying to do too much and end up turning the ball over. His aggressive defending style also can backfire as he ends up overcommitting on plays and coming up empty handed. While there were few games where he did absolutely nothing, there were also games where he had 8 points 1 board, 1 block, 1 steal, 1 assist, and a whole whack of personal fouls.

The Ugly: When Johnson thought he was getting hot, he suddenly became a volume shooter. And unfortunately for him, this often concided with him not getting to the foul line. So though he scores a respectable 22 points in a game, it comes off of 21 shot attempts and only 2 free throws. For all his reckless, athletic style you would think he would get to the basket and draw more fouls, but that wasn't always the case.

The Future
Johnson would seem poised to become a favorite of Coach Casey and a key piece of the team on his defence alone. If he can also calm his game enough to get his offensive output in line he'll be an integral part of the team moving forward.

Bottom Line: He might not always get the job done at both ends of the court, but few play with as much energy and all around skill as Johnson. And few can be as fun to watch as him when he is wreaking havoc on defence.

12-13 Role: Starting SF
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: The kind of jack-of-all-trades disruptor and defensive weapon that great teams need Worst Case: High-energy fantasy stat stuffer who plays too out-of-control to be counted on for more than bench minutes

*************************


12-13 Salary: $1,500,000
Contract Years Remaining: One
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
48(2)14.96.6.413.349.731.12.10.080.5013.3

Signed as a restricted free agent away from the Denver Nuggets, Forbes' minutes were erratic and his play reflected that. When he was on, he was a surprisingly solid scoring option off the bench. But other times he seemed lost on the court, without a role to define him.

Player Breakdown

Forbes' calling card is his offence. He was signed with the knowledge that he was a slashing scorer who could draw fouls and put up points in bursts. But unusually for that type of player he is not an outstanding athlete. He also isn't much for any other skills on the court, putting up negligible totals in every other statistical category. While he showed an acceptable level of accuracy from behind the 3 point line, he was a surprisingly poor foul shooter for a scoring player, and his overall shooting ability seemed heavily dependant on him getting hot and hitting a string of baskets. He was briefly tried at the point based on some international experience with Panama and the Raptors' point guard injury problems, but the less said about that, the better.

Season at-a-glance
The Good:
Every once and a while, Forbes would explode for 18-20 points in a game where he would be quietly effective and efficient in earning those points. 18 points on 5 of 6 shooting, 20 on 6 of 9, these were the games that showed the value Forbes could have for hte team.

The Bad: Unfortunately for Forbes, those games were infrequent and often with long stretches of minimal output in between, and would then be accompanied by erratic minutes and periods sitting on the bench. And when he wasn't scoring, he wasn't doing much of anything. He had a pair of double-digit rebound games, but he still only finished with 2.1 boards averaged for the season. Even during his de facto fill-in stint at the point, he never had more than 4 assists, and his block and steal rates were among the worst on the team.

The Ugly:
Aside from once again noting that if he wasn't scoring, he wasn't contributing, there simply wasn't enough real content to Forbes' season to pick out a glaringly ugly highlight for it.

The Future

With uncertainty of the draft and the fact that there are numerous players ahead of him on the depth chart ahead of him with more to prove and more skill to provide, it seems like another probable season of Forbes sitting on the bench and playing when injuries thrust him into necessary minutes.

Bottom Line: If there's a Raptor you're likely to forget about for long stretches, it'll probably be Forbes. He simply doesn't stand out enough to get noticed or demand more time on the court.

12-13 Role: Garbage Minute Star™ and long-term bench warmer
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: Bench depth SF who can score if the team's primary and secondary options are hurt. Worst Case: Marcus Banks, but at SF.

*************************


12-13 Salary: $890,000 (Team Option)
Contract Years Remaining: One (provided the team picks up his option)
11-12 stats
GP(GS)MPGPPGFG%3P%FT%APGRPGBPGSPGPER
14(0)8.72.4.351.000.880.23.40.640.1414.3

It's hard to evaluate Alabi, who played just 14 games, only a handful of garbage minutes in each, and generally looked just like you'd expect out of a guy who's still finding himself in the D-League. He's a big body at center though who shows that he should be able to at least snag some cheap rebounds and alter a few shots, but if you were looking for more of a clue to Alabi's future in the NBA after last season, you won't find it.

Player Breakdown

Honestly, there's not a lot to say about Alabi. He's a big, loping, defensive center with raw offence. Basically he's like 90% of the big, tall centers that get recruited out of African countries after picking up basketball for the first time in their early teens. It's harder than the scouts make it out to be to learn enough about the game in a few short years to hang with players who have been playing ball since they could walk. You see the size and the athleticism and hope that he can pick up enough of the game quickly to become serviceable, or pray that you've found Hakeem Olajuwon 2.0 (good luck with that one). It's hard to really expand on him as a player beyond that because he's played 26 games averaging 7 minutes per game over 2 years.

Season at-a-glance
The Good:
Playing a career-high (almost double his previous high) 40 minutes in the Raptors/Nets "scrub bowl" game to close out the season and determine draft lottery order, Alabi grabbed an insane 19 rebounds and 11 points for his first career triple double. He also notched 10 and 9 rebounds in 2 other games where he played 24 minutes.

The Bad:
He was pretty brutal offensively, as his 11 points in the season finale came on 3-11 shooting, and for the whole year he managed to shoot just 35% while taking only 36 shots. For a center who should easily be able to get tap-ins, garbage buckets, and stickbacks, that's awful.

The Ugly: Hard to have anything ugly when you barely play.

The Future

I dunno. At the least he might be an interior defender and rebounder who can play when the team doesn't need anything resembling offence from him. Or they might decide right now that he doesn't have enough of a future and just not pick up his contract option for next year. But his immediate future appears to once again be in the D-League, as I doubt the team wants to pressure Valanciunas any more than he will be already by having his backup be even more raw than him.

Bottom Line: Don't expect to see much of Alabi next season unless injuries, trades, or emergency situations call for it. He'll likely just get sporadic minutes throughout the season unless there are garbage games at season's end.

12-13 Role: 3rd string C stashed away in the D-League
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: Offensively limited backup C who can rebound and block shots Worst Case: Career D-Leaguer.

*************************


12-13 Salary: Unsigned
11-12 stats
None (this will be Valanciunas' rookie NBA season)

There hasn't been this much hype for a Raptors rookie since Chris Bosh in 2003. Valanciunas was highly regarded as the 5th pick in the 2011 draft, and since then he's done nothing but build on that with solid outings at international tournaments and in the Lithuanian league, numerous awards and honors, and NBA draft pundits already proclaiming him as the potential steal of his class, and that if he were inserted into this year's draft pool, he'd be an almost assured #2 pick behind only phenom Anthony Davis. With all the expectations that he will sign and make his NBA debut in the coming season, Raptors fans have hope for the first legitimate, high-ceiling starting center that the team has had since Marcus Camby more than 15 years ago.

Player Breakdown

Valanciunas might be the most un-Euro-like European forward ever. When people think of European forwards, they tend to conjure images of (in descending order of desirability) Dirk Nowitzki, Andrea Bargnani, Darko Milicic, or Nikoloz Tskitishvili. The common factor being that they tend to be small forwards in a center's body: big, perimeter oriented face-up forwards who would prefer to hit long jumpers than play inside. Valanciunas will have none of that. He is an interior player, with an aggressive, physical style. He has excellent athleticism for his size and a willinginess to fight for rebounds and defensive positioning.

To put it simply: Valanciunas is a prototypical high-ceiling NBA center.

Season at-a-glance (a snapshot of his 11-12 season in Europe)
The Good:
FIBA under-20 champion and tournament MVP. Participated in the FIBA men's tournament. FIBA young men's player of the year. Lithuanian league ROTY, best center, best home-grown product, first team all-star... See where I'm going with this? He's got a case full of awards before he crosses the Atlantic to play NBA ball. He dominated his peer group and hung with players with years of experience in the men's tournaments and league.

The Bad: I didn't exactly watch all of his games, so I can't say that there wasn't anything bad on his resume. I'm sure bad games happened or there were flaws in his game, but they weren't readily apparent in the mountain of praise he was getting all across the basketball world.

The Ugly: You're kidding, right?

The Future
His future would seem to be as a fixture in the middle for the Raptors. He likely will start the coming season on the bench and be eased into the lineup and the North American pro game, but it would not be at all surprising to see him seize the starting job by the end of 2013.

Bottom Line: the sky appears to be the limit for a player that is exciting as we've seen in almost 10 years. Hopefully the pressure won't be too much for him to handle, but we just might be looking at a future star when he suits up for his first NBA contests in the fall.

12-13 Role: Second unit C and developmental project.
Long-Term Role: Best-Case: All-Star C and franchise cornerstone Worst Case: Solid-to-good backup C, provided he wouldn't head back to Europe to get more money to start instead.

*************************

And as of right now, the team's depth chart looks like this:

PGCalderonBayless 
SGDeRozanForbes 
SFJ.JohnsonKleiza 
PFBargnaniDavis 
CValanciunasA.JohnsonAlabi
Amir isn't really a great C, but he slots there with the current limited C depth and because Davis needs minutes at PF too.

The total salary commitments, not counting Valanciunas' contract, and assuming that Bayless gets paid his qualifying amount and Alabi's team option get picked up is about $46 million. I have no idea what the 12-13 salary cap total is supposed to be, not that it matters as much given how many insane provisions and exceptions there are to the cap.


Stats Glossary
GP=Games Played
GS=Games Started
MPG=Minutes per game
PPG=Points per game
FG%=Field Goal shooting %
3P%=3-point shooting %
FT%=Free Throw shooting %
APG=Assists per game
RPG=Rebounds per game
BPG=Blocks per game
SPG=Steals per game
PER=ESPN's Player Efficiency Rating

PER is an ESPN advanced metric created by NBA writer/statistician John Hollinger to try and encapsulate a player's entire contribution on the court into a single, more easily comparable number. The scale is set so that a player who exactly represents the league average in a given year would record a score of 15.00. Note that PER totals are per-minute ratings. So someone like Brandan Wright of Dallas scores what would appear to be an elite PER total (in the league's top 30), but is hampered by the fact that he plays about half as many minutes as everyone else who scored as high as him. Generally speaking, the less minutes you play, the smaller the sample size of your output, and the easier it is to have a skewed PER. So I wouldn't put much stock into, for example, Alabi or Forbes having such high #s relative to the rest of the team.

Hollinger's brief explanation of PER can be found here

2011-12 PER stats can be found here (this link requires ESPN Insider subscription)


Last edited by The Nemesis: 05-22-2012 at 05:05 PM.
The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-20-2012, 05:49 PM
  #812
Eytinge
Registered User
 
Eytinge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 10,780
vCash: 500
Good post Nemesis, but I think Alridge is much, much better than Bargnani. I'm hoping we still move Bargs out while he has value, because you can't build a franchise around a jump shooting big man that grabs 6 boards on a good night and can be lazy on the defensive end.

Also, I'm praying BC doesn't blow his wad and overpay to bring Lin here. That would reek of MLSE and them trying to get the Asian fanbase in toronto.

Eytinge is offline  
Old
05-20-2012, 06:14 PM
  #813
weems
Registered User
 
weems's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,260
vCash: 500
Man what a team OKC has.
To go forward with all of Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka and not one of them being over 23 is insane.

If they can beat the Spurs there winning the championship.

weems is online now  
Old
05-20-2012, 07:01 PM
  #814
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eytinge View Post
Good post Nemesis, but I think Alridge is much, much better than Bargnani. I'm hoping we still move Bargs out while he has value, because you can't build a franchise around a jump shooting big man that grabs 6 boards on a good night and can be lazy on the defensive end.

Also, I'm praying BC doesn't blow his wad and overpay to bring Lin here. That would reek of MLSE and them trying to get the Asian fanbase in toronto.

I think that Aldridge is a different kind of player. He's considered more valuable because true PFs with skill are a rare breed. I think that Bargnani has the skill to compete with Aldridge especially under Casey's system and with the defensive improvements that he showed this year. Aldridge is more athletic, better on the interior, and though not a great defender he simply plays harder defensively. Bargnani is a better shooter, better as a face-up offensive player with the ball in hits hands, and a better passer/facilitator (even though Aldridge has better assist totals. I think that if Bargnani had the advantage of playing on better teams with better backcourt help over the years (ie Brandon Roy before his knees disintegrated) he would've put up better offensive numbers because he wouldn't be miscast as an interior-playing C or trying to work a system where all the prime 4/5 scoring chances went to Chris Bosh for most of his career.

Aldridge is probably better on balance, but it's not so big of a gap that I think you can look at Colangelo and say that he severely ****ed up at that draft. I also think that Aldridge has improved a bit more than was expected of him as a ceiling. Also consider that even though both are PFs, Aldridge would've been far more duplication of skill with Chris Bosh than Bargnani was. Picking Bargnani over Aldridge is a defensible draft day decision in my eyes.

To draw a parallel with the Sharks, I will freely blast Sharks management for picking Devin Setoguchi in 2005 because I thought Anze Kopitar was better then and better now. That's a mistake pick because not only did the Sharks come out of a strong draft with a less than optimal amount of production for where they picked, but there were clearly better options on the board. While you could make a case at the 06 draft to take Aldridge #1 over Bargnani, it wasn't enough of a gap to say that one player was clearly better than the other, and all things considered the Raptors couldn't have done much better, but could've easily done far, far worse.

I'm going to get to writing hte player evals in a few minutes. It'll look awkward a bit because it will slot in above these posts, but bear with me.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 01:35 PM
  #815
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/2...nba_ny_knicks/

Oh dear god no.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 01:42 PM
  #816
Hyperglide
Registered User
 
Hyperglide's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Ontario, Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,996
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
If that happens then I'll know the Raptors care more about ticket sales then winning. Terrible choice.

There's going to be Raptors fans and then Lin fans at each game. The only difference is now that Lin will be playing on the home team. Also don't the Knicks have his bird rights? They'll keep him if he's under 6 million.

Raptors need to go after Dragic and Nash. Lin is a flash in the pan.

Hyperglide is online now  
Old
05-21-2012, 01:44 PM
  #817
Buckleys
Registered User
 
Buckleys's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,041
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Thanks for the write up, a great read!

I agree with you, good god no. I am fairly knew to basketball, but i was at the game Derozan got 30 points against the Knicks and I wasn't overly impressed with Lin, watched several Knicks games and I didn't see anything spectacular out of him, but I also don't know a lot about basketball yet.

Buckleys is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 01:46 PM
  #818
Hanta Yo
Bag it up
 
Hanta Yo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,108
vCash: 500
Haven't posted in here some time, just wanted to repeat what Nemesis said about Lin to Toronto.

Do not want.

Hanta Yo is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 01:47 PM
  #819
Hanta Yo
Bag it up
 
Hanta Yo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,108
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hyperglide View Post
If that happens then I'll know the Raptors care more about ticket sales then winning. Terrible choice.

There's going to be Raptors fans and then Lin fans at each game. The only difference is now that Lin will be playing on the home team. Also don't the Knicks have his bird rights? They'll keep him if he's under 6 million.

Raptors need to go after Dragic and Nash. Lin is a flash in the pan.
I think we'll see Nash sign a short term (2-3 years) contract with a contender, and after that he'll retire or come to Toronto if he has something still left in the tank for the hell of it.

Hanta Yo is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 01:54 PM
  #820
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hyperglide View Post
If that happens then I'll know the Raptors care more about ticket sales then winning. Terrible choice.

There's going to be Raptors fans and then Lin fans at each game. The only difference is now that Lin will be playing on the home team. Also don't the Knicks have his bird rights? They'll keep him if he's under 6 million.

Raptors need to go after Dragic and Nash. Lin is a flash in the pan.
The article isn't entirely clear on the mechanics of it, and I don't understand the ridiculously complex NBA FA and rights rules enough to figure it out on my own, but apparently it's not a given that the Lin will have his Bird Rights this off-season. If he does, then yeah New York can pay whatever is necessary to keep him (and probably shoot themselves in the foot and force a Carmelo trade, but that's not the point here). If he doesn't keep them, than a big money, backloaded contract will be unmatchable for New York and give teams that are trying to poach him a far better chance to succeed.

So pretty much everyone should pray that his Bird Rights remain intact and New York can happily pay truckloads of money to keep Lin.

EDIT: Also I'll be filling in full player evals into that empty spot a few posts up this afternoon. I have some stuff to take care of, then I can sit down and write up the last 4 or 5 players that need covering and paste the whole thing in.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 02:10 PM
  #821
topched
Registered User
 
topched's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,598
vCash: 500
Do you guys really hate Lin that badly?

I know he can't play defence and is the loathed scoring pg.... but does no one think he can improve? Dwayne Casey doesn't have the skills to round out his game?

He's very young, and definitely has a ton of time to improve his game. Guys like nash are not "long-term" solutions to our pg revolving door.

I'm gonna hate the sideshow, hearing about "linsanity" every 5 minutes, but I don't think as a player, he's as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

Am I crazy?

topched is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 04:38 PM
  #822
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by topched View Post
Do you guys really hate Lin that badly?

I know he can't play defence and is the loathed scoring pg.... but does no one think he can improve? Dwayne Casey doesn't have the skills to round out his game?

He's very young, and definitely has a ton of time to improve his game. Guys like nash are not "long-term" solutions to our pg revolving door.

I'm gonna hate the sideshow, hearing about "linsanity" every 5 minutes, but I don't think as a player, he's as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

Am I crazy?
He wouldn't be worth the money he would cost to pry him from the knicks, and in spite of what Mike d'Antoni made of him, he is not a poor-man's Steve Nash. He's another slashing/scoring PG. He put up good assist #s, but part of that was inflated by the high possession #s of d'Antoni's system.

Consider that Jose Calderon, playing with a lesser supporting cast, numerous injuries that have degraded his skills, and playing in a defence-first structure that is almost the antithesis of the Linsanity-run Knicks, put up an equal if not better season to Lin.

PlayerPPGFG%3P%FT%FTM-A(PG)APGA/TORPGSPG
Calderon10.5.457.371.8821.1-1.38.84.53.10.9
Lin14.6.446.320.7934.2-5.26.21.73.11.6
Most of those stat abbreviations should be self-explanatory, except FTM-A(PG). That's Free Throws Made-Attempts (Per Game), in other words, Calderon makes an average of 1.1 FTs per game out of an average of 1.3 attempted FTs per game. A/TO is assist/turnover ratio

So what does this say? Lin is a better scorer, largely on the back of getting to the line more often, and he gets better steal totals by a fair bit. But Calderon gets far more assists, shoots far better (especially behind the arc and at the foul line), and has a way better A/TO.

Obviously at 30, Jose is not the PG of the future for this team. But Jeremy Lin is not an upgrade on our PG situation. This team needs someone who is a primary distributor. As the Linsanity streak cooled off, his assist #s nosedived from 8.4 assists in February to 6.3 in March. So even at his absolute best, Lin was not as good of a pure point as the wonky legs of Jose Calderon, even if he was scoring 25-30 points per game for a while. And he turns the ball over a ton. At his hottest point in points and rebounds, he had multiple games where he crept up close to double digit turnovers, and he averaged 5 TOs per game in January. Do you know how often Calderon turned over the ball that many times in a game? Twice. In all of last season, he had one game with 6 TOs, and one game with 5. That's it. He even had 4 games where he played 25+ minutes and didn't turn the ball over once. There was a stretch of about 2 weeks in January where Lin's TO numbers were 8, 2, 6, 6, 8, 6, 9, 7, 3, 4, 8. That's brutal beyond words.

Maybe in part my reaction to Lin is because at the end of the day I really, really prefer a Calderon/Steve Nash type PG who can put up 7+ APGs and take care of the ball. Maybe having Calderon on the Raptors and putting up unheralded-elite level PG numbers for 4 of the last 5 years has spoiled me. But at the end of the day there are only two positions that I ever place specific demands on in terms of the skills the bring to the court: Your center has to be able to defend the rim, and your PG has to be able to get the ball to where it's needed.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 06:51 PM
  #823
Joey24
Registered User
 
Joey24's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: New Zealand
Country: New Zealand
Posts: 5,484
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to Joey24
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
He wouldn't be worth the money he would cost to pry him from the knicks, and in spite of what Mike d'Antoni made of him, he is not a poor-man's Steve Nash. He's another slashing/scoring PG. He put up good assist #s, but part of that was inflated by the high possession #s of d'Antoni's system.

Consider that Jose Calderon, playing with a lesser supporting cast, numerous injuries that have degraded his skills, and playing in a defence-first structure that is almost the antithesis of the Linsanity-run Knicks, put up an equal if not better season to Lin.

PlayerPPGFG%3P%FT%FTM-A(PG)APGA/TORPGSPG
Calderon10.5.457.371.8821.1-1.38.84.53.10.9
Lin14.6.446.320.7934.2-5.26.21.73.11.6
Most of those stat abbreviations should be self-explanatory, except FTM-A(PG). That's Free Throws Made-Attempts (Per Game), in other words, Calderon makes an average of 1.1 FTs per game out of an average of 1.3 attempted FTs per game. A/TO is assist/turnover ratio

So what does this say? Lin is a better scorer, largely on the back of getting to the line more often, and he gets better steal totals by a fair bit. But Calderon gets far more assists, shoots far better (especially behind the arc and at the foul line), and has a way better A/TO.

Obviously at 30, Jose is not the PG of the future for this team. But Jeremy Lin is not an upgrade on our PG situation. This team needs someone who is a primary distributor. As the Linsanity streak cooled off, his assist #s nosedived from 8.4 assists in February to 6.3 in March. So even at his absolute best, Lin was not as good of a pure point as the wonky legs of Jose Calderon, even if he was scoring 25-30 points per game for a while. And he turns the ball over a ton. At his hottest point in points and rebounds, he had multiple games where he crept up close to double digit turnovers, and he averaged 5 TOs per game in January. Do you know how often Calderon turned over the ball that many times in a game? Twice. In all of last season, he had one game with 6 TOs, and one game with 5. That's it. He even had 4 games where he played 25+ minutes and didn't turn the ball over once. There was a stretch of about 2 weeks in January where Lin's TO numbers were 8, 2, 6, 6, 8, 6, 9, 7, 3, 4, 8. That's brutal beyond words.

Maybe in part my reaction to Lin is because at the end of the day I really, really prefer a Calderon/Steve Nash type PG who can put up 7+ APGs and take care of the ball. Maybe having Calderon on the Raptors and putting up unheralded-elite level PG numbers for 4 of the last 5 years has spoiled me. But at the end of the day there are only two positions that I ever place specific demands on in terms of the skills the bring to the court: Your center has to be able to defend the rim, and your PG has to be able to get the ball to where it's needed.
Anyone who thinks Lin is the answer is blinded by the hype that surrounded/surrounds him. It would be interesting to see what he could do in Toronto and maybe he could cut down on those turn overs? I dunno, Toronto needs scoring and a scoring PG or a Scoring SG or who ever they bring in to help put points on the score board is fine by me. Lin did most his damage with out Melo and I am sure Amare also.

Joey24 is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 06:58 PM
  #824
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey24 View Post
Anyone who thinks Lin is the answer is blinded by the hype that surrounded/surrounds him. It would be interesting to see what he could do in Toronto and maybe he could cut down on those turn overs? I dunno, Toronto needs scoring and a scoring PG or a Scoring SG or who ever they bring in to help put points on the score board is fine by me. Lin did most his damage with out Melo and I am sure Amare also.
I don't want a scoring PG because the team is bringing in Valanciunas this year and they're going to need to get him comfortable with the NBA offensively. The best way to do that is with a PG who can get him the bal in the best possible situations.

and Lin actually worked well with just Amare and no Melo. The problem is that Melo sulked and pouted and whined that the run-and-gun d'Antoni system that loves transition buckets and pick-and-rolls doesn't suit him. Melo is an iso player, who thinks that a good offence is one that gives him the ball every time down the floor and hoist up 30+ shots per game. The idea that the point guard should dictate when and where he gets the ball offends him for some reason.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
05-21-2012, 11:48 PM
  #825
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 47,442
vCash: 500
TSN's Tim Chisholm makes a good point regarding Lin & the Raptors:

http://www.tsn.ca/nba/story/?id=396502

PlayerStartsPPGAPGTOpgRPGFG%3P%
Jeremy Lin2518.27.74.73.7.445.343
Player X2518.06.12.63.3.460.383

That's two players with 25 career starts at the point and their performance therein. Scoring is basically a wash. Lin has a better assist rate, but it's mitigated by the almost double turnover rate. Rebounds are close enough when it comes to PGs, and the mystery player is a better overall shooter and far better behind the line.

So who is Player X?

Jerryd Bayless. Those are his starting numbers with the Raptors over the last two seasons.

So we can spend asinine amounts of money to bring in Jeremy Lin, or we can spend a far more reasonable amount to lock up a guy who has performed at a very similar level with the Raptors, just without the ridiculous hype and fanfare that comes with being in NYC.

and I swear I'm going to put up my player analysis post tonight if it kills me. To make up for the delays, I've added some graphic flare to the proceedings.

The Nemesis is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:45 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.