Political Discussion - "on-topic & unmoderated"Rated PG13, unmoderated but threads must stay on topic - that means you can flame each other all you want as long as it's legal
Odds the US is at war with Iran within the next year (if they develop a bomb)?
Let the Europeans bury their heads in the sand and continue on with their holier than thou attitudes. Most of Europe participated in Afghanistan, and you can be sure if a legit war broke out in Iran, much of Europe will be a part of it. Hell, even in Iraq there were several European countries participating in a smaller role.
Sure some will join, as a PC gesture perhaps. But surely all of them combined wouldn't even touch the numbers that the US will send or spend. And not a chance in hell that the EU will do anything without the US. I mean look at the other wars recently. It's always the US starting the war and pulling the EU via GB in the mess. And there is nothing "holier than thou" about not starting a war that has no reason to be started.
And, actually, now that I think about it, in today's post-advent of nationalism, post-advent of free trade world there's even less reason to start wars than there used to be. It's a very small set of cases where I say "yes, go start a war," but the set isn't non-existent.
money/resources are almost irrelevant in warfare as we know it today
Huh? The US armed forces uses as much fossil fuels as a small country. If the devices ran on solar the middle east would not be very strategically important.
Sure some will join, as a PC gesture perhaps. But surely all of them combined wouldn't even touch the numbers that the US will send or spend. And not a chance in hell that the EU will do anything without the US. I mean look at the other wars recently. It's always the US starting the war and pulling the EU via GB in the mess. And there is nothing "holier than thou" about not starting a war that has no reason to be started.
I never said they would be active in the same numbers as the US would. We definitely all know that. But that's not what I said. I said if a real war broke out with Iran, the major players of Europe would be a part of it. By that I mean Germany and France mainly.
Germany's political class tore itself apart on Afghanistan, refused anything to do with a war with Iraq, and hasn't been very vocal about intervention in the region in the past year. Going to war with Iran accomplishes nothing for them in foreign or internal politics (And will probably make Robert Kagan go in a crazy rant about the "German problem")
France, barring a better solution, will just have to do what Germany wants because they, and the Eurozone, can't afford such a war right now. Not to mention, an election is coming up and none of the other candidates is looking ready to go to war.
I have learnt that there is no point having a true moral conviction in geo-politics. There is no such thing.
States will do whatever they are capable of to retain the power they have, or expand on it.
It is purely within the US' interest to invade Iran. They have been working on it for about a decade now. Afghanistan and Iraq were stepping stones to the last true refuge of non-Western power in the Middle East. Take a look at that map and see what they have done to contain Iran. The US wants to dominate the region because that is where all the cheapest oil is from, and has huge political and economic resources to them.
Geo-politics is a game. A game of containment and destabilization to retain your power.
I don't agree with it, but that's how she works.
So are you saying the US is going to war with Iran because they want to make sure they have all the power in the Middle East?
If Iran had no ill motives toward Israel, would the US come up with another reason to invade/fight Iran?
Germany's political class tore itself apart on Afghanistan, refused anything to do with a war with Iraq, and hasn't been very vocal about intervention in the region in the past year. Going to war with Iran accomplishes nothing for them in foreign or internal politics (And will probably make Robert Kagan go in a crazy rant about the "German problem")
France, barring a better solution, will just have to do what Germany wants because they, and the Eurozone, can't afford such a war right now. Not to mention, an election is coming up and none of the other candidates is looking ready to go to war.
That's excactly it. Being pro intervention vocally is political suicide in Germany. Most of the German media doesn't believe in the danger of Iran. With the economy having a little hard time in Europe now supporting a military action would not go well with the public. The reigning party just suffered a blow yesterday as their Bundespräsident (our head of state) resigned yesterday. The CDU (our centre right party) can't afford that now, But the CDU is excactly the party that would be most likely for intervention (although they are not fond of that either). They will lose the next election and I can't see the other parties being pro intervention.
Germany is almost pathologically anti-war. Our last one taught us a very valuable lesson.
Agreed. Britain should have just let Hitler take over. U.S. should have just demanded an apology from Japan and the same with the Taliban/Al Qaeda. Everybody ends up a winner.
In those situations Hitler and the Japanese started the conflicts you're referring to so yes, those are not examples of wars started for good reasons. Unless you're saying it's not really a war until the US or the British become involved?
Agreed. Britain should have just let Hitler take over. U.S. should have just demanded an apology from Japan and the same with the Taliban/Al Qaeda. Everybody ends up a winner.
All of those wars happened because of previous wars. Wars lead to future wars, which is why wars should not happen.
That's excactly it. Being pro intervention vocally is political suicide in Germany. Most of the German media doesn't believe in the danger of Iran. With the economy having a little hard time in Europe now supporting a military action would not go well with the public. The reigning party just suffered a blow yesterday as their Bundespräsident (our head of state) resigned yesterday. The CDU (our centre right party) can't afford that now, But the CDU is excactly the party that would be most likely for intervention (although they are not fond of that either). They will lose the next election and I can't see the other parties being pro intervention.
Germany is almost pathologically anti-war. Our last one taught us a very valuable lesson.
But they would send troops to Iran, or help in other ways, just as they did in Afghanistan. No, they won't send hundreds of thousands of troops, but that wasn't my point.
