HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > San Jose Sharks
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

All-Purpose Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread Part 4

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-20-2012, 10:45 AM
  #201
SJeasy
Registered User
 
SJeasy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Jose
Country: United States
Posts: 12,319
vCash: 500
Trading is about team results, not individual points. Unless you think in business terms of jersey sales, etc. Arguing that Player X is better than Player Y is somewhat moot when compared to arguing that Player X makes Team A better than Player Y would.

I've gone down a pretty good length of trade history and team results. The transactions that make a difference in standings points and/or playoff rounds strongly tend to be for playmakers. When considering salary allocation, it argues against heavy allocation to snipers. NJ is relatively in the same place it was before the Kovalchuk trade. The NYR stayed in the same place after the Gaborik addition. The NYR improved their team results with the Richards acquisition. Boston unloaded Kessel opening spots for guys like Peverly and Marchand who increased their playmaking. The big question remains as to who was the last Richard winner to get a cup in the same year.

The secondary question falls to top end offensive talent. I don't think anyone thinks Toews is the top offensive producer, yet his Blackhawks won. Crosby won once, not multiple times when healthy. Having the top guy is no guarantee of winning. It is a team sport and overall team composition and integration counts. I would much rather have the better team than the latest hot dog who finds his name at the top of the marquis. And getting that hot dog has often backfired.

SJeasy is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 10:50 AM
  #202
Les Wynan*
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
vCash: 500
Richards has nothing to do with the Rangers' improvement and that contract will be just as much an albatross as Scott Gomez in a year or two (if it isn't already). There's one reason NYR is winning and he's been there since the lockout.

Les Wynan* is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 10:54 AM
  #203
Naki
Registered User
 
Naki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,254
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Who cares who's a "better offensive player"? The goal of hockey is to outscore the opposition and Pavelski laps the field against Nash in that category.

I'm guessing that by "anyone with eyes" you mean "anyone who judges a player based on what their NHL.com page tells them."

Idiots on online message boards might not know who Pavelski is if he played for the Jackets but USA Hockey isn't run by morons. Pavelski would be an Olympian if he played for the Florida Panthers. He's a top-5 American player in the NHL.
Kessel, Kessler, Suter, Parise, Kane, Miller.

Thats six right there who could be considered top five. Which two is Pavelski better than?

Naki is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 10:55 AM
  #204
SJeasy
Registered User
 
SJeasy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Jose
Country: United States
Posts: 12,319
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Richards has nothing to do with the Rangers' improvement and that contract will be just as much an albatross as Scott Gomez in a year or two (if it isn't already). There's one reason NYR is winning and he's been there since the lockout.
My hypothesis says that the Richards (and Stepan emergence) changed the allocation of opposition defenses. The Rags previously played effectively a one-line offense. It began to change last year and has fully changed this year. I grant that the end of Richards contract may be an albatross, but I think it goes deeper than your analysis.

SJeasy is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 10:57 AM
  #205
Les Wynan*
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Naki View Post
Kessel, Kessler, Suter, Parise, Kane, Miller.

Thats six right there who could be considered top five. Which two is Pavelski better than?
I would take Pavelski on my team any day over one-dimensional players like Kessel and Kane or an overrated league-average goalie like Miller.

The other three and Thomas are better than Pavs.

Les Wynan* is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 10:58 AM
  #206
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,595
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Naki View Post
Kessel, Kessler, Suter, Parise, Kane, Miller.

Thats six right there who could be considered top five. Which two is Pavelski better than?
First off Miller is a goalie, so that's totally silly to include him in that list.

Beyond that, I'd say he's better than Kessel over his career. Kessel is having a great season, but let's see if he can keep it up. I would not for instance trade Pavelski for Kessel straight up.

Kesler, Kane and Parise are better forwards, but all also make a lot more money than Pav's. Value wise Pav's is on probably the best of the group, but talent wise right now I agree, he falls in 4th.

Suter is a defensemen, so obviously thats a tough comparison, but yes I'd say he's a better player than Pav's is.

hockeyball is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 10:59 AM
  #207
SpinTheBlackCircle
Global Moderator
boots and pants
 
SpinTheBlackCircle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 33,114
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Who cares who's a "better offensive player"? The goal of hockey is to outscore the opposition and Pavelski laps the field against Nash in that category.

I'm guessing that by "anyone with eyes" you mean "anyone who judges a player based on what their NHL.com page tells them."

Idiots on online message boards might not know who Pavelski is if he played for the Jackets but USA Hockey isn't run by morons. Pavelski would be an Olympian if he played for the Florida Panthers. He's a top-5 American player in the NHL.
How many Jackets games have you watched the last 5 years? I've watched well over 100.

Top 5 American player? You're high. Seriously.

Kessel
Parise
Kane
Thomas
Ryan
Callahan
Backes
Suter
Johnson
Johnson
Quick
Howard

....that's just off the top of my head

__________________
Gots all my pertinence on it and such
SpinTheBlackCircle is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:04 AM
  #208
SJeasy
Registered User
 
SJeasy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Jose
Country: United States
Posts: 12,319
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinTheBlackCircle View Post
How many Jackets games have you watched the last 5 years? I've watched well over 100.

Top 5 American player? You're high. Seriously.

Kessel
Parise
Kane
Thomas
Ryan
Callahan
Backes
Suter
Johnson
Johnson
Quick
Howard

....that's just off the top of my head
Raw skill, I would agree with the exceptions of Backes, Callahan and Howard. I would give Pavs the nod over those 3. I would have him close, below or above. IMO he would overtake Kane, J. Johnson and Kessel on team play.

SJeasy is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:05 AM
  #209
Les Wynan*
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
My hypothesis says that the Richards (and Stepan emergence) changed the allocation of opposition defenses. The Rags previously played effectively a one-line offense. It began to change last year and has fully changed this year. I grant that the end of Richards contract may be an albatross, but I think it goes deeper than your analysis.
Richards has helped with one thing and it's extremely important: moving the puck up the ice. He starts around 50% of his shifts in the defensive zone and has been able to drive the play forward and create offensive zone faceoffs that have pretty much entirely been given to Gaborik and Stepan. Those two are getting the full-on Sedin treatment, sheltered to an insane degree. A lot of coaches are catching on to what Vigneault is doing in Vancouver.

However, I don't buy that Richards is primarily responsible for that. The Rags saw a huge uptick in possession when Carl Hagelin joined the team and that kid is having a monstrous season. He plays with Richards a lot, I think, so even though it might not make sense intuitively I think a lot of the credit can be attributed to what Hags has done on a line with Richards to make the latter look competent. Richards was terrible in Dallas last season so I don't buy that he suddenly learned how to play responsible defense again. Although he used to be very good at that earlier in his career so who knows. I'm rambling but I think the most interesting thing out of all of this is that the Rangers' scouting staff may have stolen Detroit's methodology for finding overlooked, elite Swedes to get Hagelin.

Les Wynan* is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:06 AM
  #210
Les Wynan*
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinTheBlackCircle View Post
How many Jackets games have you watched the last 5 years? I've watched well over 100.

Top 5 American player? You're high. Seriously.

Kessel
Parise
Kane
Thomas
Ryan
Callahan
Backes
Suter
Johnson
Johnson
Quick
Howard

....that's just off the top of my head
Anyone who thinks Jack Johnson is a competent hockey player, let alone better than Pavelski, isn't worth having a conversation about the sport with.

Les Wynan* is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:07 AM
  #211
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,595
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinTheBlackCircle View Post
How many Jackets games have you watched the last 5 years? I've watched well over 100.

Top 5 American player? You're high. Seriously.

Kessel
Parise
Kane
Thomas
Ryan
Callahan
Backes
Suter
Johnson
Johnson
Quick
Howard

....that's just off the top of my head
Lets assume Les meant skaters (because comparing goalies to skaters is just impossible).

Kessel - Pavelski is better
Parise - Yes
Kane - For the sake of argument, Yes, though I'd take Pavelski because Kane is a tool.
Thomas - Goalie
Ryan - No, talents there, but production isnt. I take Pavs
Callahan - Wow, no.
Backes - No, not even close
Suter - yes (but defensemen)
Johnson - Erik, No
Johnson - Jack? Hah, no
Quick - goalie
Howard - goalie

So really thats:

Parise
kane
Suter
Kesler

So yah, Pavelski is at least in the argument for top-5 american SKATER

hockeyball is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:08 AM
  #212
stalockrox
Registered User
 
stalockrox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,362
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Anyone who thinks Jack Johnson is a competent hockey player.
He has to be one of the most overrated players ever!

stalockrox is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:13 AM
  #213
Naki
Registered User
 
Naki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,254
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Anyone who thinks Jack Johnson is a competent hockey player, let alone better than Pavelski, isn't worth having a conversation about the sport with.
Jack Johnson may not be great at hockey but I hear hes not too bad at guitar.

Naki is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:14 AM
  #214
SJeasy
Registered User
 
SJeasy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Jose
Country: United States
Posts: 12,319
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Richards has helped with one thing and it's extremely important: moving the puck up the ice. He starts around 50% of his shifts in the defensive zone and has been able to drive the play forward and create offensive zone faceoffs that have pretty much entirely been given to Gaborik and Stepan. Those two are getting the full-on Sedin treatment, sheltered to an insane degree. A lot of coaches are catching on to what Vigneault is doing in Vancouver.

However, I don't buy that Richards is primarily responsible for that. The Rags saw a huge uptick in possession when Carl Hagelin joined the team and that kid is having a monstrous season. He plays with Richards a lot, I think, so even though it might not make sense intuitively I think a lot of the credit can be attributed to what Hags has done on a line with Richards to make the latter look competent. Richards was terrible in Dallas last season so I don't buy that he suddenly learned how to play responsible defense again. Although he used to be very good at that earlier in his career so who knows. I'm rambling but I think the most interesting thing out of all of this is that the Rangers' scouting staff may have stolen Detroit's methodology for finding overlooked, elite Swedes to get Hagelin.
I didn't focus on Hagelin when watching. I did see a dramatic shift to a two-line offense. Last year they were nudging two-line with Anisimov who has now dropped down their depth chart. Previous to last year, they were one-line. Torts also gives more license for all 4 lines to play transition but without the same risk tolerance that you see with the Hawks and Flyers.

SJeasy is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:17 AM
  #215
SpinTheBlackCircle
Global Moderator
boots and pants
 
SpinTheBlackCircle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 33,114
vCash: 500
FWIW, I didn't mean to duplicate Johnson on the list.....trying to do this at a customers office.

SpinTheBlackCircle is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 11:29 AM
  #216
magic school bus
***********
 
magic school bus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: San Jose, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 14,700
vCash: 1965
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinTheBlackCircle View Post
How many Jackets games have you watched the last 5 years? I've watched well over 100.

Top 5 American player? You're high. Seriously.

Kessel
Parise
Kane
Thomas
Ryan
Callahan
Backes
Suter
Johnson
Johnson
Quick
Howard

....that's just off the top of my head
That list is ridiculous. Pavs is better than either Johnson, Howard, Callahan, Ryan, Kessel. I'd say he's about even with Backes on defense, but is a better offensive player.

Parise, Suter, Kane, Thomas, Yandle, and Kesler are the only Americans clearly better. Quick is a great goalie, but he's just a goalie so I left him out. He is at least in the argument like HB said.

And to answer another post, Pavs is still on Team USA if he plays for CBJ. No one knew who he was before he got on Team USA even when he was on our team (East coast bias, I'm sure).

Edit: i saw you're post, it's ok. haha


Last edited by magic school bus: 02-20-2012 at 11:36 AM.
magic school bus is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:00 PM
  #217
Les Wynan*
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by stalockrox View Post
He has to be one of the most overrated players ever!
It's always hilarious when Pierre or another broadcaster refers to him as a "two-way defenseman." He's basically a glorified Marc-Andre Bergeron except I'm not even convinced he's as good as him. He drags down everyone he plays with. Rob Scuderi had the toughest job in hockey last year trying to cover for him. McLellan was absolutely itching to get the Thornton and Couture lines out against JJ whenever he was on the ice in that series last year. He wasn't able to succeed too often but Pavelski killed him anyway.

I also think there are some GMs in the league who don't realize how terrible he is and that, if Lombardi isn't one of those guys, he could really do well for himself by trading him. Especially if it's to a rival team so they can sic Kopi and Richards against Johnson on a regular basis.

Purely anecdotal but:



Jesus does he suck. D-men on my rec league team don't get caught pinching that badly. And they'd have some idea of what to do when they make it back to the defensive zone.

Les Wynan* is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:09 PM
  #218
one2gamble
Registered User
 
one2gamble's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 5,943
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
The secondary question falls to top end offensive talent. I don't think anyone thinks Toews is the top offensive producer, yet his Blackhawks won.
and forever will that win be on the same line as one of these *

one2gamble is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:25 PM
  #219
Stickmata
Registered User
 
Stickmata's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,489
vCash: 500
Pavelski is definately top 5 among American skaters and he's also still improving his overall game every year. Kane and Parise are the only two on that list that I would even consider taking back in a straight up trade for Pavs, and Kane less so than Parise.

Stickmata is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:29 PM
  #220
Barrie22
Shark fan in hiding
 
Barrie22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,138
vCash: 302
Quote:
Originally Posted by stalockrox View Post
Pavelski's linemates for most of last season weren't all that great and he still managed to put up 66 points, he can play with anyone and still produce.

The question about trading Nash doesn't stop at who's better, Nash or Pavelski. If it was a Pavs for Nash straight up, an argument can be made about who's better.

But the asking price for Nash, though it's overpayment, would be Pavelski, Braun, likely Greiss and a pick. People can say 'Columbus will never get that type of return' all they want, but that's the asking price. This has been more or less confirmed considering the asking price from Philadelphia was JVR, Schenn or Couturier and Bob.

Is that package, and then likely having to move Clowe or Boyle in the off season to make the salaries / cap work, worth it?

Columbus does not have to move Nash before the trade deadline, they'll wait until they can get as close to that package as they can.
so marleau, clowe, couture, heatley, are on the same tier as vermette, umberger, brassard, prospal?

pavelski's line mates for most of last season (up until wellwood arrived were either, couture, clowe, marleau, heatley).

and if you actually look at pavelski's 35 points after the wellwood trade, a majority of them come from being with one of the top 6 forwards, and or the power play.

Barrie22 is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:34 PM
  #221
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,595
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barrie22 View Post
so marleau, clowe, couture, heatley, are on the same tier as vermette, umberger, brassard, prospal?

pavelski's line mates for most of last season (up until wellwood arrived were either, couture, clowe, marleau, heatley).

and if you actually look at pavelski's 35 points after the wellwood trade, a majority of them come from being with one of the top 6 forwards, and or the power play.
The Mithcell - Pavelski - Wellwood line was our fourth most consistently ice line last season at 5.33%.

Anyway, as i pointed out pretty definitively, Pavelski is a model of consistency no matter his line-mates (as is Nash). Puts up more points than Nash consistently and is VASTLY better defensively.

Also, as has been pointed out and proven time and time again, great players do not move to superior teams and score more points (of any significance). It almost never happens.

edit: Forgot to include the link http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...gametype=ALL#A[/URL]

hockeyball is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:36 PM
  #222
Franchise13
Registered User
 
Franchise13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: San Francisco, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,651
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Lets assume Les meant skaters (because comparing goalies to skaters is just impossible).

Kessel - Pavelski is better
Parise - Yes
Kane - For the sake of argument, Yes, though I'd take Pavelski because Kane is a tool.
Thomas - Goalie
Ryan - No, talents there, but production isnt. I take Pavs
Callahan - Wow, no.
Backes - No, not even close
Suter - yes (but defensemen)
Johnson - Erik, No
Johnson - Jack? Hah, no
Quick - goalie
Howard - goalie

So really thats:

Parise
kane
Suter
Kesler

So yah, Pavelski is at least in the argument for top-5 american SKATER
Ryan's had 3-30 goal seasons and is on his way to a 4th, how has he not been productive? I love Pavs, but Ryan has played better at this point. Ryan also has the raw size, skill and speed that Pavelski doesn't, so who knows if he gets better? I know goalscorers tend to peak early but one, Ryan is not at that age. Two, I'm not so sure I consider Ryan to be a pure goalscorer only.

Edit: Playoffs? Ryan has 8 Goals, 11pts in 17 games usually vs top pairing D. It's not like he doesn't perform there either.

Very curious on how you came to your assessment about Ryan.

Eric Johnson is very dominant defensively even now. Last time I saw him in person I was very impressed by his play, not sure if it was because it was live or just that particular game. Mentioned something to a colleague who's watched him play plenty, and he agreed that if EJ ever put his offensive game consistently he'd be a perennial Norris candidate.

As for American Skaters who are better than Pavs, taking entire body of work into account in no particular order:

Tier 1
Parise
Suter
Ryan
Kane

Tier 2
Pavs
Kesler
EJ
Yandle- Still kind of unsure about this one, want of bump him up but... for some reason I can't.

(Not a complete list. I don't see the others enough to comment.)


Last edited by Franchise13: 02-20-2012 at 12:45 PM.
Franchise13 is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:37 PM
  #223
Gilligans Island
Registered User
 
Gilligans Island's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: SF/Bay Area
Posts: 7,943
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
The Mithcell - Pavelski - Wellwood line was our second most consistently ice line last season at 24%.

Marleau - Seto - Thornton beat it by .43%
Where are you getting these stats?

Gilligans Island is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:37 PM
  #224
Les Wynan*
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barrie22 View Post
so marleau, clowe, couture, heatley, are on the same tier as vermette, umberger, brassard, prospal?

pavelski's line mates for most of last season (up until wellwood arrived were either, couture, clowe, marleau, heatley).

and if you actually look at pavelski's 35 points after the wellwood trade, a majority of them come from being with one of the top 6 forwards, and or the power play.
Because points are what matter when evaluating a player.

Pavelski spent 40% of his even-strength shifts with Torrey Mitchell last season, who most of you are convinced is the worst player ever, 30% with Clowe, 23% with Wellwood and less than 20% with anyone else on the Sharks. Not exactly superstars.

And he did that while starting 56% of his shifts in his own zone (a greater percentage than any Shark other than Scott Nichol) and playing against other teams' best players more frequently than any Sharks forward outside of the top line.

He's the kind of guy who deserves to be in the Selke Trophy conversation every year, if not win it outright, in a parallel universe where the PHWA actually knows anything about hockey. I'll take that over Rick Nash.

Les Wynan* is offline  
Old
02-20-2012, 12:39 PM
  #225
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,595
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Where are you getting these stats?
It was incorrect, I corrected it.

hockeyball is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:30 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.