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Gambling on "sure things/lock" Worth it?

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Old
03-20-2015, 07:38 AM
  #1
ChrisWinsor
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Gambling on "sure things/lock" Worth it?

So I've always wanted to get into sports betting, but not on games. Too much variance, proline has taught me to stay away (Wings of yesteryear losing to Islanders was smarts)

So I was looking into some sites that allow for betting on trophies. Hart is a flip between Ovie and Price, although my money would be on Price.

The lock comes into play when betting on the Vezina this year. It'll probably be like Mackinnon and the Calder last year. It was not even a question, and the payout reflected this. a 100$ bet on Mac last year got you 106$ return. So risk 100$ loss to make 6$

Thing is, in my mind this is free money. Mac had 130 1st place votes to Palats 5.
Something similar will occur for Price and the Vezina.

So if Price gets you a 6% return, why not invest your savings and make an easy 6%?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-29314400 - This guy bet over 1 million on the Scottish referendum using the same logic.

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03-20-2015, 08:20 AM
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Major4Boarding
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Moved thread here, as I believe its a good discussion piece just not a Business of Hockey topic

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03-20-2015, 08:40 AM
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Alklha
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As someone who earns his living in gambling, I'd advise against it.

One general premise, putting all your money on one outcome is a quick way to lose. You bet it here, it wins. Next time? It wins. It might do that the next 10 times. Ultimately, a time will come where you lose and your wiped out.

On this particular market, I highly doubt you find a book that is willing to take a significant bet. It depends on how a particular book operates, but I'd imagine that they will limit your bet to ~$500 or limit your winnings to ~$500 in this type of market.

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03-20-2015, 09:10 AM
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ChrisWinsor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Major4Boarding View Post
Moved thread here, as I believe its a good discussion piece just not a Business of Hockey topic
Thanks!

Good advice Alklha. Even still, 500$ if its 10% payout for Price seems like it'd be worth it. With previous years winners and stats available, rheotoric from the voters themselves makes it seem like its another Mac style thing where the voting will be not even close.

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03-20-2015, 09:36 AM
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Alklha
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Originally Posted by ChrisWinsor View Post
Thanks!

Good advice Alklha. Even still, 500$ if its 10% payout for Price seems like it'd be worth it. With previous years winners and stats available, rheotoric from the voters themselves makes it seem like its another Mac style thing where the voting will be not even close.
As you note, it isn't a bad market to be backing a heavy favourite on because the voters themselves make public statements of which way they plan on voting.

I don't know what books offer the market, but I imagine that you'll probably be looking at $25-$40 profit on a $500 bet. The question is how long is that money going to be tied up while you await the outcome?

I would prefer to go a different route for a return.

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03-20-2015, 01:21 PM
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saskriders
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When I play pro-lines I like to put one shootout (tie) some safe games, and 1 or 2 others that aren't too safe, but I am fairly confident about.

That way I get a good return even off a $5 bet, and it is more fun to watch.

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03-20-2015, 07:17 PM
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theaub
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Never bet big money to win small money

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03-20-2015, 09:02 PM
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Morozov
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Even if you found a book to take a big bet on that market, and you won, you got what five bucks, ten bucks? Hardly worth it to have that much money tied up and there is still a risk that it won't pay out. If there's a true "lock" then books won't be taking bets on it.

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03-22-2015, 12:46 PM
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Unless you have insider info that Price is the guaranteed Vezina, don't put your money there.

It might go well once, twice... three times, but ultimately you will have a losing bet that will wipe everything you won and much more.


In this race, you see Annie Power was running away going clear from the 2nd horse... at that moment the price on the bookie must have been around what...5/100? Nearly guaranteed money, but the horse fell. And so thousands of people lost their bets.

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03-22-2015, 03:17 PM
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Alklha
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vasilevskiy View Post
Unless you have insider info that Price is the guaranteed Vezina, don't put your money there.

It might go well once, twice... three times, but ultimately you will have a losing bet that will wipe everything you won and much more.


In this race, you see Annie Power was running away going clear from the 2nd horse... at that moment the price on the bookie must have been around what...5/100? Nearly guaranteed money, but the horse fell. And so thousands of people lost their bets.
Is that a question or do you know? Annie Power was indeed trading at 1.05 when the fall occurred. 12,000 was traded at that price.

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03-23-2015, 02:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
Is that a question or do you know? Annie Power was indeed trading at 1.05 when the fall occurred. 12,000 was traded at that price.
Was a guess Just went by previous races that I saw in such situation.
Spanish law banned betfair exchange bets in 2012

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Old
03-24-2015, 08:28 AM
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Alklha
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I feel that pain, UK gambling laws at the end of last year forced Pinnacle out. I'm just finalising my property & bank account abroad so I can open another account.

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