HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Minnesota Wild
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

2-19-12: The odds of the Wild making the post season ATM

View Poll Results: Chances, chances...
0-10% 21 39.62%
11-30% 17 32.08%
31-60% 8 15.09%
61-100% 1 1.89%
No chance whatsoever 6 11.32%
Voters: 53. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-20-2012, 05:37 PM
  #26
651*
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Capital of MN 651
Country: United States
Posts: 2,601
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WILDhockeyfan View Post
Just when I've all but completely given up on this team they go and shutout the Bruins. Can they just make the decision of whether to make the playoffs or tank already? This crap play with spots of brilliance is killing me.
I would hardly call that performance "brilliant." Surely Backs set a record and played like an all star but Cullen and Rau put the scores, not the guys that are supposed to (Heat, Seto).

It was brilliant on Backs' part and that was mostly it. I don't even know how much they were outshot but it was something like 2 to 1.

651* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-20-2012, 06:56 PM
  #27
Dampland
Registered User
 
Dampland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: town
Country: United States
Posts: 2,462
vCash: 50
zero % chance we make the playoffs.

In fact the worst thing for the team is to actually Make the playoffs, and ONCE AGAIN get a ****** middle of the pack draft pick.

Dampland is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-21-2012, 07:35 AM
  #28
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 651 View Post
I would hardly call that performance "brilliant." Surely Backs set a record and played like an all star but Cullen and Rau put the scores, not the guys that are supposed to (Heat, Seto).

It was brilliant on Backs' part and that was mostly it. I don't even know how much they were outshot but it was something like 2 to 1.
Top Line Players Score - "OMG this team is terrible, we have no depth scoring, if the top line doesn't score we get nothing."


Non-Top Line Players Score - "OMG this team is terrible, our top line didn't score so it's just a fluke that anything good happened."

squidz* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-21-2012, 10:19 AM
  #29
651*
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Capital of MN 651
Country: United States
Posts: 2,601
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Top Line Players Score - "OMG this team is terrible, we have no depth scoring, if the top line doesn't score we get nothing."


Non-Top Line Players Score - "OMG this team is terrible, our top line didn't score so it's just a fluke that anything good happened."
I understand your point but allowing 48 shots and putting up half as many isn't going to cut it.

651* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-21-2012, 10:37 AM
  #30
Avder
Global Moderator
Reliable NonSequitur
 
Avder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Location: Location.
Country: United States
Posts: 36,575
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Top Line Players Score - "OMG this team is terrible, we have no depth scoring, if the top line doesn't score we get nothing."


Non-Top Line Players Score - "OMG this team is terrible, our top line didn't score so it's just a fluke that anything good happened."
Yeah thats pretty much how things work around here.

Avder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-21-2012, 12:45 PM
  #31
llamapalooza
Hockey State Expat
 
llamapalooza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: San Francisco
Country: United States
Posts: 7,920
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 651 View Post
I understand your point but allowing 48 shots and putting up half as many isn't going to cut it.
I agree, absolutely, but check out the ice tracker and based on quality of shots, the horribleness of 48 shots seems a bit exaggerated. Filter to just the Bruins in the second period--there's not a single shot from anywhere between the dots, except what appears to be a dump from the blue line. (Not to mention no shots from the Bruins' RW side the entire period... our LW and LD had their ****ing Wheaties Sunday morning.) Combining that stat with beating Timmy Thomas twice, I'd go so far as to say the 2nd period was one of our best overall periods all season.

It's only by the 3rd period that there are any shots coming from the slot or even really from the middle of the ice. And you kind of expect a flurry like that from the Bruins when they're trailing.

llamapalooza is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-22-2012, 03:03 AM
  #32
Spawnisen
Believe.
 
Spawnisen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Finland
Country: Finland
Posts: 2,005
vCash: 500
12 % We're so uneven, but if we somehow get consistent again we do have ok chances.

Spawnisen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-22-2012, 12:12 PM
  #33
Avder
Global Moderator
Reliable NonSequitur
 
Avder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Location: Location.
Country: United States
Posts: 36,575
vCash: 50
The way the standings sit today, we are 5 points back with a game in hand, so if we can win on thursday we can make up a point.

Avder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-22-2012, 12:34 PM
  #34
Haite
x
 
Haite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,929
vCash: 500
If we hadn't lost to Columbus twice, we'd be 1 point from playoff spot with a game in hand. But of course if's are always if's.

Haite is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-22-2012, 12:44 PM
  #35
llamapalooza
Hockey State Expat
 
llamapalooza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: San Francisco
Country: United States
Posts: 7,920
vCash: 500
If we had won 23 of our last 28, instead of losing that many, we'd still be leading the Presidents' Trophy race!

llamapalooza is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-27-2012, 11:50 PM
  #36
llamapalooza
Hockey State Expat
 
llamapalooza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: San Francisco
Country: United States
Posts: 7,920
vCash: 500
So let's take a moment to reassess. We're 5 points out and need to pass over 4 teams to make the playoffs.

BUT:

We have a game in hand on all four of those teams.

AND:

Dallas: We play them one more time and it's at home (no AAC!), plus they have a tough schedule, including the Canucks three times (two @VAN), Pittsburgh, @Nashville, @Winnipeg (8th best home team in NHL) and St. Louis.

Colorado: We play them two more times (and Backs has bizarrely great numbers in Denver). Their schedule includes @NYR (best home team in NHL), Canucks twice, NSH twice, and Pittsburgh. That said, they do have a handful of easy games, including CBJ twice and EDM.

Calgary: We play them two more times. Their schedule's pretty easy, except a home-and-home with Vancouver as 2 of their last 3. But come on, they're Calgary.

LA: We play them two more times, both at home. Their schedule isn't horrible, but they do have @VAN, STL, DET twice, ANA twice, and BOS. They're also tumbling in the standings.

Also, San Jose and Chicago's spots could both be in play soon, depending on how much longer their skids last.

Our schedule's not easy, but we do have 12 home games left, plus trips to the recently-gutted MTL and BUF, and we've gotten a lot of our traditionally bad games like @DAL and @VAN out of the way already. More importantly, there have been signs of life in the last four games, and I really think the new infusions like Gilbert and Palmieri are going to kick-start things a little bit. More importantly still, we have a bit of added depth and aren't forced to use Houston scrubs. There will actually be some healthy competition for spots. I also think a lot of guys are going to play like they have a fire lit under their ***** after seeing the most firmly-entrenched non-Koivu player shipped off. Also, no Zidlicky (14-18-8 with him, 14-6-1 without).

Still very much an outside shot, but I think our odds have gotten better over the last two games. They've gotta get hot NOW though.


Last edited by llamapalooza: 02-28-2012 at 12:01 AM.
llamapalooza is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-27-2012, 11:57 PM
  #37
NHL1674
Whatever...
 
NHL1674's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Minnesota
Country: United States
Posts: 13,796
vCash: 165
There is a better chance of Zidlicky scoring 10 goals with the Devils than there is of us making the playoffs.

NHL1674 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 12:00 AM
  #38
tomgilbertfan
u wot m8
 
tomgilbertfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Minnesota
Country: United States
Posts: 10,457
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by NHL1674 View Post
There is a better chance of Zidlicky scoring 10 goals with the Devils than there is of us making the playoffs.

tomgilbertfan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 12:13 AM
  #39
Avder
Global Moderator
Reliable NonSequitur
 
Avder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Location: Location.
Country: United States
Posts: 36,575
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by DC2600 View Post
I already used that line earlier this season!

But I fully agree with Llama's assessment.

If we want in, tomorrows game is where we need to start. If we cant beat an LA team that cant score and make those two points, then we probably dont have what it takes to go on the hot streak we need to to make the playoffs. LA is a team we are in direct competition with for that 8th spot, so tomorrows game better have a playoff-like atmosphere, and our guys better come out swinging and never ever stop.

4 point game tomorrow, as they say.

Avder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 01:28 AM
  #40
thestonedkoala
Everyone! PANIC!
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 19,398
vCash: 500
Zero chance. Fletcher has already thrown up his hands and is looking at next season already.

thestonedkoala is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 08:29 AM
  #41
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
I think the focus is a bit off. At this point, we know that 8th in the West is likely to be 95 points. It doesn't really matter the order of the remaining teams, or what their schedules are, 95 points is what it will likely take to get in. We're currently at 65 points with 20 games remaining. That means we'll need to win 3 out of every 4 remaining games to make the playoffs. There's a little room for slipping, it's possible that 92-93 points will make the playoffs, but it's unlikely that 95 will miss. We need 15-5-0 to have a solid shot down the stretch. It starts with LA. Here's what I (optimistically) see happening for the remainder:

LA - Win
@MTL - Win
@DET - OTL
COL - Win
@COL - Win
@PHX - Win
CGY - Win
DAL - Win
CAR - Win
VAN - OTL
CGY - Win
@BUF - Win
@WSH - Win
NYR - Loss
FLA - Win
LA - Win
@CHI - Loss
@NSH - Loss
CHI - Win
PHX - Win

That's an extremely optimistic outlook, but puts us at 15-3-2 which would be good for 97 points. That's room for one more loss instead of a win in that list. If 93 points gets in, that's two more losses in the list. It's doable, but is a very long shot. It's worth noting that we're pretty far down the list for ROW so we likely need to win outright rather than rely upon tiebreakers.

squidz* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 10:27 AM
  #42
Jarick
Doing Nothing
 
Jarick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St Paul, MN
Country: United States
Posts: 25,029
vCash: 500
I'd give it about 10% now?

Good news was teams that needed to lose, lost last night. The Wild also has a game in hand on all the other teams fighting for 8th. Tonight is pretty much a must-win. We're the only game that really matters. If that happens, Wild tied for 11th with 67 points and still have a game in hand on some teams.

Tomorrow will be big too, but tough. PIT @ DAL, and you need them to lose in regulation. BUF @ ANA, and while Anaheim is still back of the Wild, if they get two points, they are still in it. And if the Wild loses tonight and Anaheim wins, they will jump the Wild.

So basically, the Wild needs to have a very strong finish to the season AND needs some of the other teams to lose down the stretch. As Russo said, they need to leap over FOUR teams, which is incredibly difficult.

At the very least, games should hopefully be interesting and competitive with the new roster.

Jarick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 10:53 AM
  #43
llamapalooza
Hockey State Expat
 
llamapalooza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: San Francisco
Country: United States
Posts: 7,920
vCash: 500
It's looking like the cutoff won't be 95 points this year. Sportsclubstats says a 93 point finish would have a very high chance of making it, and even 92 is more likely above the line than below. Even 91, if we get some help from the teams above us, is a possibility, though not a fantastic one.

llamapalooza is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 11:47 AM
  #44
squidz*
dun worry he's cool
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: South of the Border
Country: United States
Posts: 11,897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by llamapalooza View Post
It's looking like the cutoff won't be 95 points this year. Sportsclubstats says a 93 point finish would have a very high chance of making it, and even 92 is more likely above the line than below. Even 91, if we get some help from the teams above us, is a possibility, though not a fantastic one.
93 points is a 14-6-0 finish at this point. To phrase it differently, if we go on a 7 game winning streak, we'll still need to do better than 0.500 to finish the season afterwards.

squidz* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 12:01 PM
  #45
Jarick
Doing Nothing
 
Jarick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St Paul, MN
Country: United States
Posts: 25,029
vCash: 500
It's probably not that bad though:

TeamPtsPPGProjPyth
VANCOUVER871.38113.2114.0
ST LOUIS851.35110.6111.8
DETROIT851.35110.6111.6
NASHVILLE811.29105.4104.6
PHOENIX731.1896.597.0
SAN JOSE711.1695.496.6
CHICAGO731.1493.593.4
DALLAS701.1191.190.3
LOS ANGELES681.0888.589.2
COLORADO701.0989.788.8
CALGARY671.0687.285.7
MINNESOTA651.0586.083.7
ANAHEIM641.0283.383.5
COLUMBUS430.6956.957.6

I fixed my table so the Pythagorean projection should be more accurate (because of 3-point games).

According to that, 8th place might only be 91 points. 92 might be enough to make it.

Dallas @ Minnesota on 3/13 might be the biggest game of the season if it stays this tight.

Jarick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 12:56 PM
  #46
Avder
Global Moderator
Reliable NonSequitur
 
Avder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Location: Location.
Country: United States
Posts: 36,575
vCash: 50
What we need to do is stop looking at the whole picture and look at where we are, how many points back, and what games happen in the next day or two that effect us.

We've got a chance to make up critical ground tonight by beating Los Angeles. We need to do it in regulation.

Other games that may affect us tonight are Van @ Phx and Phi @ SJ. Ideal results for those games are for Van and Phi to both win in regulation to allow us to gain ground on those Pacific division teams. One of them may eventually fall out of the top 8.

We should not be talking about going 15-5-0. We should be talking about winning a winnable game tonight.

Avder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 01:02 PM
  #47
llamapalooza
Hockey State Expat
 
llamapalooza's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: San Francisco
Country: United States
Posts: 7,920
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avder View Post
What we need to do is stop looking at the whole picture and look at where we are, how many points back, and what games happen in the next day or two that effect us.

We've got a chance to make up critical ground tonight by beating Los Angeles. We need to do it in regulation.

Other games that may affect us tonight are Van @ Phx and Phi @ SJ. Ideal results for those games are for Van and Phi to both win in regulation to allow us to gain ground on those Pacific division teams. One of them may eventually fall out of the top 8.

We should not be talking about going 15-5-0. We should be talking about winning a winnable game tonight.
Absolutely. My point wasn't that we need to look at going 15-5 and whatnot, just that we're still in a position where winning these big games can have an impact.

llamapalooza is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 01:12 PM
  #48
Avder
Global Moderator
Reliable NonSequitur
 
Avder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Location: Location.
Country: United States
Posts: 36,575
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by llamapalooza View Post
Absolutely. My point wasn't that we need to look at going 15-5 and whatnot, just that we're still in a position where winning these big games can have an impact.
Right. Were 5 points back with at least one game in hand on everyone. That means if that game in hand becomes a win, were suddenly only 3 points back, which is considerably more doable.

We have to win both when our competitors win and when they lose, and we can only lose when our competitors also lose.

This is a race with a floating finish line.

Avder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 01:21 PM
  #49
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
 
Dr Jan Itor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: MinneSNOWta
Posts: 12,735
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
It's probably not that bad though:

TeamPtsPPGProjPyth
VANCOUVER871.38113.2114.0
ST LOUIS851.35110.6111.8
DETROIT851.35110.6111.6
NASHVILLE811.29105.4104.6
PHOENIX731.1896.597.0
SAN JOSE711.1695.496.6
CHICAGO731.1493.593.4
DALLAS701.1191.190.3
LOS ANGELES681.0888.589.2
COLORADO701.0989.788.8
CALGARY671.0687.285.7
MINNESOTA651.0586.083.7
ANAHEIM641.0283.383.5
COLUMBUS430.6956.957.6

I fixed my table so the Pythagorean projection should be more accurate (because of 3-point games).

According to that, 8th place might only be 91 points. 92 might be enough to make it.

Dallas @ Minnesota on 3/13 might be the biggest game of the season if it stays this tight.
Did Edmonton contract itself out of shame?

Dr Jan Itor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-28-2012, 02:20 PM
  #50
Jarick
Doing Nothing
 
Jarick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St Paul, MN
Country: United States
Posts: 25,029
vCash: 500
No, I had to re-do the table half a dozen times and manually delete the EC teams. They're on pace for 71 I think so it's not worth fixing

Jarick is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:55 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.