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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread VI

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Old
02-24-2012, 12:45 PM
  #151
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
IMO, Parise might be best as a 4th liner, but I don't know what makes Linden any better. I dont have time to run VS 2 numbers now, but I'm pretty sure Linden was never top 20 in NHL scoring. And Linden definitely has intangibles but are they that good?
Linden vs. #2: 70, 70, 61, 57, 54, 54, 51.
Parise vs. #2: 92, 75, 64, 48, 46, 46, 46.

Not sure how useful that is because both players were good enough to get PP time in real life but aren't in the ATD. here are their best adjusted ES point totals (I'm not bothering with percentages)

Linden: 56, 54, 47, 42, 40, 39, 37, 36
Parise: 64, 60, 47, 45, 43, 41, 41, 38

the real difference in both comparisons is that Parise had two "peak" seasons (1970 & 1973) better than anything Linden ever did, but Linden looks more even once whole careers are considered.

Linden averaged 37 adjusted ESP/80 over 1382 games. Parise averaged 44 over 868. It's up for debate which is more impressive. If I cut off Linden at about the same number of GP, his average is 41 (460 adj. pts in 893 adj. GP - GP are adjusted thanks to 1995 since pts are already adjusted to 82 GP).

So offensively he is a little behind but not far. Positives in his favour:

- longevity as a good player (16 seasons) and as an "at least contributing" player (19 seasons).
- awesome playoff scoring record for a player of his caliber (99 pts in 124 games)
- one of the more respected leaders of his time
- probably better defensively (5th in Selke voting once)
- great size (6'4", 220)

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02-24-2012, 12:57 PM
  #152
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Linden also killed penalties a lot more than Parise did in the NHL.

Parise killed penalties sometimes in the Summit Series but probably shouldn't have. Canada allowed 9 power play goals in the series, partly because they took more penalties, but also partly because their execution on the PK wasn't always good. To my eye the Soviets used the slap shot from the point a lot more than Canada did, similar to a modern PP, and some of the Canadian forwards were really bad at taking away those lanes and pressuring the points. Esposito and his PK partners, either Parise or Frank Mahovlich, were the worst offenders. (Peter Mahovlich, an undrafted player, Clarke, and Ellis were much better.)

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02-24-2012, 12:57 PM
  #153
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the kenora thistles are pleased to select...

graham drinkwater (d)

Quote:
Originally Posted by greatest hockey legends
Graham Drinkwater was the centerpiece of the Montreal Victorias dynasty that won four Stanley Cups at the close of the 19th century. The Montreal native grew up playing hockey and football with the Montreal AAA junior team. He went on to star in football at McGill University and with the Vics in hockey.

Described as a brilliant stickhandler, wonderful skater and a natural scorer, he was also a versatile and complete player. He excelled at both forward and defense. When playing on the back end he teamed with fellow Hall of Famer Mike Grant to form not only the best blue line in all of hockey, but the cornerstone of a hockey dynasty.

Montreal won the Stanley Cup in 1895, 1897, 1898 and, with Drinkwater as captain, in 1899.

Graham Drinkwater was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame in 1950.
and...

bob nystrom (rw)

Quote:
Originally Posted by greatest hockey legends
Drafted by the New York Islanders 33rd overall in 1972, Nystrom was anything but the stereotypical Swede. He was Canadian through and through, and it showed on the ice. He was a physically dominant forward, a masterful bodychecker and a knockout fighter when need be. He had good puck skills as well, particularly his accurate wrist shot, but was a poor skater. It took a year of power skating lessons before Nystrom gradually improved to an acceptable level of skating by NHL standards.

After an 11 game stint in 1972-73, Nystrom made the Isles roster permanently in 1973-74. He scored 20 goals and had 118 PIM as he instantly became a Long Island fan favorite due to his hard work in the corners, along the boards and in glove-dropping scrums.

Nystrom was a consistent goal scorer as well. His 20 goal rookie season was the first of seven 20+ goal seasons, and the first of 5 in a row. His best year was in 1977-78 when he scored 30 times and added 29 assists for 59 points. He was even selected to the play in the 1977 All Star game

Nystrom was a warrior in the playoffs - a fearless banger who did anything to help the team win. The ultimate team player, Nystrom was a huge part of those Islander championships. While he never reached the acclaim of Bossy, Trottier, Potvin or Smith, there is little doubt that his impact on that team was immeasurable.

Nystrom retired in 1986 after a couple of injury plagued seasons. After retiring his number 23 high to the rafters of Nassau Colliseum. He was the first dynasty Islander to be so honored, and was later joined by Potvin, Bossy, Smith, Trottier and Gillies.

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02-24-2012, 01:22 PM
  #154
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To insulate Ruotsalainen, I'm taking Ed Van Impe. LF's bio of this big, tough defensive, crease clearing defenseman is here:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=197

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02-24-2012, 01:31 PM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
I was looking through google archives and found an article saying he didn't have great years in New York because they didn't fit his style of play.
Iím a fan of this pick, obviously, but to be objective here, the above falls on him. The best players adapt. If he didnít it doesnít make him a bum but he should take the blame for not being all that great in NY.

Of course, his TOI (which I will get to) says that they still relied on him more than anyone else so that is a big plus for him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I wonder a bit, in general, why the voting metrics (of which we now have almost complete records) are not used more often in evaluating defensemen in the ATD. Forwards can be evaluated as scorers, but the Norris/AST voting is the best quantitative measurement we have of the performance of defensemen. Strange that this information is still only sporadically used in ATD analysis.
They are underused for players we havenít seen, and overused for players we have.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
I remember reading somewheres that Vadnais played well over 25 minutes a game for both the Seals, Bruins and Rangers. Also that he was consistently the 1st or 2nd dman on his team in ES minutes.
Hereís what the sheet says:

MTL D VADNAIS, CAROL 14.012
OAK D VADNAIS, CAROL 29.801
OAK D VADNAIS, CAROL 26.504
CFS D VADNAIS, CAROL 25.854
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 28.329
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 23.334
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 27.208
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 27.516
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 29.899
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 28.710
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 26.860
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 21.088
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 22.675
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 18.731
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 17.335
NJD D VADNAIS, CAROL 19.347

Career average: 24.86 minutes averaged over 1076 post-expansion games. I donít think any available defenseman averaged close to that, for close to that long. He averaged 19.28 minutes per game at ES in his career Ė I bet there will be at least a dozen defensemen drafted here who played less than 800 games and didnít average that in total TOI per game, never mind ES.

Of course, if Vadnais didnít earn 25-30 minutes a game on Oakland/California I would wonder what was wrong with him. So those numbers arenít particularly useful (what is useful is that he earned all-star votes despite being on that team). But in Boston and New York he was a big minute player, particularly from 1973 through 1978. The Bruins were an excellent team and the Rangers? Well, they werenít terrible at least. They werenít Oakland!

Quote:
I'm starting to get the impression that he was capable of being more of an all around defenseman and a lot of the time he was.
All signs are that he was an all-around defenseman. There are plenty of examples of this in the post-expansion era. Guys who played forever in the #1-2 slot on their teams and were maybe put in roles higher than they sometimes deserved and though they werenít perfect defensively, their TOI shows that they were consistently considered a better option than the other guys on the team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Vadnais likely did lead team defensemen in ES icetime for a couple of seasons in Oakland, though that is not saying much.
1969: top defenseman in all situations
1970: 2nd overall, 3rd at ES (behind Harry Howell and something called Doug Roberts)
1971: 2nd overall, 3rd at ES (behind an ATD player and that Doug Roberts guy)
1972: 1st overall by a longshot, 2nd at ES behind another ATD player

Quote:
I'm fairly certain he led Rangers defensemen in ES icetime for the first few years, though like I said, he didn't handle it very well.
You are right:
1976: 1st overall, 1st at ES
1977: 1st overall, 3rd at ES (very close behind an ATD and top MLD player)
1978: see 1978, exact same
1979: 3rd overall, just 6th at ES (this is where he really started to fall off)

Quote:
Obviously he didn't lead the Bruins in ES icetime, and I doubt he was 2nd, either.
1973: he was 4th overall, and 3rd at ES, of a 4-man rotation (7 minutes per game more than the #5 guy Ė Boston was basically a two-pairing team). All four of these top-4 played 21-22 mins at ES though so it was very close.
1974: #2 behind Orr overall and at ES by a long shot (had a 6-minute overall lead over the #3, and 2.5 minutes over him at ES)
1975: #2 overall by a long shot (4.5 mins) and #2 at ES by half a minute over Orrís partner

Although not Orrís partner, he did end up playing more than Orrís partner from the 2nd pairing. You see this happen a bit. I would definitely call him Bostonís #2 defenseman those two seasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I doubt Bobby, himself, would have had a big effect on Vadnais' voting record, though playing with those Boston forwards and on that powerplay (alongside Bobby? I'm not really sure) likely helped
Not with Stanfield playing that other point. In 1972 and 1973 he got almost no PP time in Boston, then for two years, PP points clearly indicate he was their other pointman beside Orr.

He did finish 6th and 8th in AS voting those years so you could say the PP time helped him, as they were his two best rankings. But he did well in other years too. So your conclusion below is accurate IMO:

Quote:
Vadnais may have been somewhat flattered by playing for those Bruins teams - it kind of looks like he was. But he did finish top-10 in AST voting twice in Oakland (counting 1971-72, where he played 3/4ths of the season there), so it can't be said that the Bruins made him.
I think with all things considered he is an excellent value here. I think that after about a dozen more ďmodern defensemen who are more valuable offensively than defensivelyĒ are drafted, I will look at doing a more exhaustive comparison. Ruotsalainen will be included. Vadnais definitely deserves to go first in that bunch, and I would include the already-drafted Reinhart, Ramage, and Larson in that group. (OK, I admit Larsonís superior point production may give him the win here, but it is worth exploring because Vadnais does have some advantages Ė earned the same average TOI/GP for a longer time for teams that were, on aggregate, significantly better, superior all-star recognition)

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02-24-2012, 02:00 PM
  #156
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The Whalers select Doug Risebrough, C


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Old
02-24-2012, 02:20 PM
  #157
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the kenora thistles are pleased to select...

craig ludwig (d)

Quote:
Originally Posted by greatest hockey legends
Let's start with the obvious - Craig Ludwig was not an offensive defenseman. His skating and mobility were also below the NHL norm. He was a classic stay-at-home defenseman, perhaps the best of his era. He was a hulking 6'3" 220 lb monster who loved to play physically, yet he played remarkably cleanly. He rarely took dumb penalties. In fact he barely average one PIM a game in his career. He made up for his lack of ability with experience and good hockey sense which allowed him to read plays and anticipate what the oncoming attacker was going to do. Mentally tough and poised under pressure, shot blocking was a forte of Ludwig's. Using incredibly thick and wide shin pads (people use to joke he wore street hockey goalie pads for shin pads), Ludwig fearlessly would throw himself in front of any shot. He was a leader in the dressing room and on the ice. He knew his role and played within his own limitations.

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02-24-2012, 02:28 PM
  #158
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02-24-2012, 02:33 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Iím a fan of this pick, obviously, but to be objective here, the above falls on him. The best players adapt. If he didnít it doesnít make him a bum but he should take the blame for not being all that great in NY.

Of course, his TOI (which I will get to) says that they still relied on him more than anyone else so that is a big plus for him.



They are underused for players we havenít seen, and overused for players we have.



Hereís what the sheet says:

MTL D VADNAIS, CAROL 14.012
OAK D VADNAIS, CAROL 29.801
OAK D VADNAIS, CAROL 26.504
CFS D VADNAIS, CAROL 25.854
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 28.329
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 23.334
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 27.208
BOS D VADNAIS, CAROL 27.516
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 29.899
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 28.710
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 26.860
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 21.088
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 22.675
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 18.731
NYR D VADNAIS, CAROL 17.335
NJD D VADNAIS, CAROL 19.347

Career average: 24.86 minutes averaged over 1076 post-expansion games. I donít think any available defenseman averaged close to that, for close to that long. He averaged 19.28 minutes per game at ES in his career Ė I bet there will be at least a dozen defensemen drafted here who played less than 800 games and didnít average that in total TOI per game, never mind ES.

Of course, if Vadnais didnít earn 25-30 minutes a game on Oakland/California I would wonder what was wrong with him. So those numbers arenít particularly useful (what is useful is that he earned all-star votes despite being on that team). But in Boston and New York he was a big minute player, particularly from 1973 through 1978. The Bruins were an excellent team and the Rangers? Well, they werenít terrible at least. They werenít Oakland!



All signs are that he was an all-around defenseman. There are plenty of examples of this in the post-expansion era. Guys who played forever in the #1-2 slot on their teams and were maybe put in roles higher than they sometimes deserved and though they werenít perfect defensively, their TOI shows that they were consistently considered a better option than the other guys on the team.



1969: top defenseman in all situations
1970: 2nd overall, 3rd at ES (behind Harry Howell and something called Doug Roberts)
1971: 2nd overall, 3rd at ES (behind an ATD player and that Doug Roberts guy)
1972: 1st overall by a longshot, 2nd at ES behind another ATD player



You are right:
1976: 1st overall, 1st at ES
1977: 1st overall, 3rd at ES (very close behind an ATD and top MLD player)
1978: see 1978, exact same
1979: 3rd overall, just 6th at ES (this is where he really started to fall off)



1973: he was 4th overall, and 3rd at ES, of a 4-man rotation (7 minutes per game more than the #5 guy Ė Boston was basically a two-pairing team). All four of these top-4 played 21-22 mins at ES though so it was very close.
1974: #2 behind Orr overall and at ES by a long shot (had a 6-minute overall lead over the #3, and 2.5 minutes over him at ES)
1975: #2 overall by a long shot (4.5 mins) and #2 at ES by half a minute over Orrís partner

Although not Orrís partner, he did end up playing more than Orrís partner from the 2nd pairing. You see this happen a bit. I would definitely call him Bostonís #2 defenseman those two seasons.



Not with Stanfield playing that other point. In 1972 and 1973 he got almost no PP time in Boston, then for two years, PP points clearly indicate he was their other pointman beside Orr.

He did finish 6th and 8th in AS voting those years so you could say the PP time helped him, as they were his two best rankings. But he did well in other years too. So your conclusion below is accurate IMO:



I think with all things considered he is an excellent value here. I think that after about a dozen more ďmodern defensemen who are more valuable offensively than defensivelyĒ are drafted, I will look at doing a more exhaustive comparison. Ruotsalainen will be included. Vadnais definitely deserves to go first in that bunch, and I would include the already-drafted Reinhart, Ramage, and Larson in that group. (OK, I admit Larsonís superior point production may give him the win here, but it is worth exploring because Vadnais does have some advantages Ė earned the same average TOI/GP for a longer time for teams that were, on aggregate, significantly better, superior all-star recognition)





That's a heck of a break down seventies Well done. Those ATOI numbers are very interesting. How are you able to find these?

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02-24-2012, 02:37 PM
  #160
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If anyone cares about whether we stay on an 8 hour clock or go down to 6 next round, there are two picks before this round ends. Currently votes are 9-8 in favor of going down to a 6 hour clock as originally planned. Vote in the poll if you care either way.

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02-24-2012, 02:38 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by papershoes View Post
the kenora thistles are pleased to select...

craig ludwig (d)
Tremendous pick, I was ready to pounce on him at 450. He's not an offensive defenseman by any means but he's still one of the best shutdown defensemen out there. With Morrow, Huddy and now Ludwig gone there goes my list for defensive defensemen. Guess more research is in order for me.

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02-24-2012, 02:38 PM
  #162
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Is there something awesome about this picture that I'm missing?

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02-24-2012, 02:39 PM
  #163
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There is one thing I think is odd about Vadnais.

Norris: 10th

That's it. Why such a disparity between all star voting, and Norris voting?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Is there something awesome about this picture that I'm missing?
Not sure if you're kidding, but the massive shin pads that Ludwig used to block all those shots.

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02-24-2012, 02:40 PM
  #164
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the kenora thistles are pleased to select...

craig ludwig (d)
Early for a backup.

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02-24-2012, 03:01 PM
  #165
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Early for a backup.
The goalie backs him up...

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02-24-2012, 03:04 PM
  #166
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That's a heck of a break down seventies Well done. Those ATOI numbers are very interesting. How are you able to find these?
A good half dozen other people must have asked for this TOI file by now, and I've shared it with them. I am at work and will be stuck here for probably 7 more hours, but if someone who has the file reads this, you should PM mark and get his contact info.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
There is one thing I think is odd about Vadnais.

Norris: 10th

That's it. Why such a disparity between all star voting, and Norris voting?
I think you see this for a lot of players in this "tier" of defensemen. There were more voters, or more voting points, to go around... or something.

All I know is when you go by all-star points, if you look at the 10th defenseman from 1963-1983, you have voting point totals of 8, 8, 11, 9, 15, 11, 12, 21, 7, 15, 15, 19, 10, 5, 8, 11, 18, 29, 35, 19. Almost always something significant to go by. If you look at norris voting in that period... 5, 3, 1, 5, 1, 5, 3, 3, 5, 1, 4, 3, 3, 3, 0, 1, 1, 4, 11, 20. Almost never a number that we would consider significant in the ATD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Is there something awesome about this picture that I'm missing?
I forgot to reply to this part. I was going to say, "seriously??"


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-24-2012 at 03:28 PM.
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02-24-2012, 03:09 PM
  #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
There is one thing I think is odd about Vadnais.

Norris: 10th

That's it. Why such a disparity between all star voting, and Norris voting?



Not sure if you're kidding, but the massive shin pads that Ludwig used to block all those shots.
Heh oops. Yeah, they're comically huge (looked at the pic on my phone)

As for the Norris/All Star thing, part of it is that Norris voting only goes down to 8th/9th place a lot of years. Other than that, I don't know. In Norris voting, each writer voted for his top 3 defensemen, and for AS voting, each writed voted for top 6. So I guess a lot more of them thought he was 4th-6th than 1st-3rd?

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02-24-2012, 03:28 PM
  #168
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A good half dozen other people must have asked for this TOI file by now, and I've shared it with them. I am at work and will be stuck here for probably 7 more hours, but if someone who has the file reads this, you should PM mark and get his contact info.
I'd appreciate it if someone could send it to me as well.

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02-24-2012, 03:28 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
A good half dozen other people must have asked for this TOI file by now, and I've shared it with them. I am at work and will be stuck here for probably 7 more hours, but if someone who has the file reads this, you should PM mark and get his contact info.

.
BBS PM'd me.

Thanks a lot looking forward to checking this out.

EDIT: Stoneberg I will email to you

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02-24-2012, 03:29 PM
  #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
In Norris voting, each writer voted for his top 3 defensemen, and for AS voting, each writed voted for top 6. So I guess a lot more of them thought he was 4th-6th than 1st-3rd?
which is awesome, because it adds depth to the results that you just can't get with norris voting.

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02-24-2012, 03:30 PM
  #171
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which is awesome, because it adds depth to the results that you just can't get with norris voting.
Oh yeah. I think for most seasons, AS voting is better than Norris voting for anything under 5th or 6th place or so. Norris voting is probably a better representation of the top 5 or 6 though and is definitely better at determining #1.

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02-24-2012, 03:44 PM
  #172
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Completed Harry Hyland bio:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=130

Basically everything we've got on him that's available on the internet is in there. I couldn't find much.

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02-24-2012, 03:57 PM
  #173
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Dawson City selects speedy winger Hec Kilrea, LW.

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02-24-2012, 04:00 PM
  #174
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Originally Posted by Modo View Post
Dawson City selects speedy winger Hec Kilrea, LW.
I was just looking at him. In past ATDs, he's been listed as a W, but I didn't find any evidence he actually played both sides. I didn't look very hard though.

He's one of those players whe had the best offensive season of his career by far in 1929-30, which makes me immediately suspicious of how his offense will translate here. Still, a solid two-way third liner.

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02-24-2012, 04:04 PM
  #175
Rob Scuderi
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Pittsburgh will select a pair of wingers, LW Gilles Tremblay and RW Jim Pappin

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