nobody knows exact icetime for gretz but it was enough for messier's numbers look rather bad. there was another center called hagman at that time (i think he is related to niklas hagman who plays for ducks at the moment) he was really frustrated because gretz played ALL 2 min of each powerplay. he felt that he didnt get a chance and left for finland.
Yah, as linked above, that was Matti Hagman. His countryman, a chap named Jari Kurri never had a problem.
His goal scoring style destroyed 80's goalies, but I don't think he'd be a 50 man in todays NHL let alone 60 or 70. To get those number you'd absolutely have to only focus on goal scoring and have a wicked shot. (Stamkos, Ovechkin, Bure)
gretzky would indeed increase his teams totals (not vancouver).
lets say team x GF 230 last year. we are generous and suppose gretzky will boost team x's offense by 20% (edmonton stats didnt drop THAT MUCH after he left)
230*1.2 = 276
276 * 0.2 (i give him 20% of goals) = 55 goals
and then icetime.... 50 is a stretch but possible.
nobody knows exact icetime for gretz but it was enough for messier's numbers look rather bad. there was another center called hagman at that time (i think he is related to niklas hagman who plays for ducks at the moment) he was really frustrated because gretz played ALL 2 min of each powerplay. he felt that he didnt get a chance and left for finland.
you cannot repeat that in todays NHL (well you CAN but it doesnt make sense).
Gretzky is NOT a byproduct of era but his 200+ seasons are byproduct of oilers. i dont understand what is problem here.. 50 goals by playmaker first guy is HUGE!
you add 90 assists and you have 140 point guy. unseen today...
That's hardly an exact science. Stamkos is potentially going to hit 60 goals. But Gretzky flirts with 50?
One factor that no one has mentioned here yet. In the 1981 Canada Cup Gretzky was urged to shoot more. He had seasons of 51 and 55 goals in his first two years. From 1981-'85 he led the NHL in goals, some by a ridiculous margin. Then starting in the 1985-'86 season after a couple of Cups and utter domination of the NHL he had a personal goal to hit 2 assists per game. He did it, and still scored 52 goals. Only in 1987 did he ever lead the NHL in goals again and as late as 1989 he had his final 50+ goal campaign.
Look, in 1989 Gretzky had played 10 seasons of NHL hockey, three Canada Cups and a million playoff games. Like anyone in NHL who is around 30 or more his goal totals started to drop. This was pre-Suter. In 1990 he has 40 goals, in 1991 he has 41. Then the Suter hit and we saw how his mobility got hurt. Yet there was still the 1993 playoffs with 15 goals. Then on a terrible team the Art Ross in 1994.
But let's look at Gretzky's final year where he obliterated the NHL. No, it wasn't the 1980s, it was 1991. Gretzky had 163 points for the Kings with his next best teammate getting 91. Hull had 131 points, 2nd in the NHL. Gretzky had 122 assists, better than anyone else's point totals (save for Hull). He finishes 2nd in MVP voting which I think he should have won. Hull wins because 86 goals was impressive and let's face it, the writers were tired of Gretzky winning it. So he's 30 years old and he had 32 more points than the next best player. He still scored 41 goals. And think about it, he had played 12 seasons in the NHL by now and everyone else had much bigger drops by then. Not him. He still embarasses the rest of the NHL one last time.
Then the back injury and then the rest of his career he focuses even more on playmaking. He was still the smartest player on the ice when he was 37 years old. Still scored 90 points, still got 23 goals. An old battered up Gretzky led the NHL in assists in 1998 on one of the worst teams in the league one year before retirement. This is the guy we're questioning?
His goal scoring style destroyed 80's goalies, but I don't think he'd be a 50 man in todays NHL let alone 60 or 70. To get those number you'd absolutely have to only focus on goal scoring and have a wicked shot. (Stamkos, Ovechkin, Bure)
IMO he'd be a 40-45 goal guy with 120+ assist
I'm pretty sure John Tavares will hit 40 goals if not this year very soon, and I assume very regularly. Tavares, like Gretzky, relies on his smarts on the ice. Everyone and their mother knows Tavares isn't even in the same universe as Gretz
I'm pretty sure John Tavares will hit 40 goals if not this year very soon, and I assume very regularly. Tavares, like Gretzky, relies on his smarts on the ice. Everyone and their mother knows Tavares isn't even in the same universe as Gretz
I think Tavares plays the game extremely close to what Gretzky played like....in a slightly different stratosphere of talent though (I also think Nugent-Hopkins plays the same style, even kinda looks/skates like him)
A prime Gretzky close to Stamkos today is just as ridiculous as comparisons to Lafleur, Bossy, Dionne and the others he almost doubled in points in his prime.
Question: Does anyone think that Stamkos/Malkin/Sedins are any better than Lafleur/Dionne?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawksfan2828
Number of time 50+ goals have been scored per decade from 1979-80 to 2011-12.
1979-80 to 1989-90 - 84 times.
1990-91 to 2000-2001 - 51 times.
2001-02 to 2011-2012 - 17 times.
I believe it's safe to conclude the numbers show that goalies have gotten progressively better over the last few decades.
I'd suspect Gretzky would score 60-70 goals a season in his prime in the modern day NHL. I beloved he his assists would drop significantly tho (80-90).
140-160 points a season would be a good guess for Gretzky.
scoring more than 70 goals:
70s - 1 time - Esposito
80s - 8 times (Gretzky 4, Kurri (thank you 99), Bernie Nicholls (thank you 99) and Mario twice)
90s - Brett hull 3x, Selanne/Mogilny in '93
since - zero
scoring more than 150 pts:
70s - 1 time - Esposito
80s - 11 times - Gretzky 8 times, Lemieux 2x, Bernie Nicholls (thank you 99)
90s - Gretzky, Mario 2x
since - nobody
from 1980-90, Gretzky scored 800 points MORE than Peter Stastny, teammate Jari Kurri, and Denis Savard, the next highest scorers, in the same amount of games, against the same goalies, in the same era. I don't think you'll find anyone who'll say that today's top players are significantly better than Stastny, Kurri and Savard, they are comparable. Nuff Said.
---here's a thought. Maybe it was the players, not the era.
Your generalizations about scoring applies to era, to the middle of the bell curve, somewhat - not to such outliers.
If you remove Gretzky and Lemieux from the top of the NHL, you don't see the blip that so many on this board try desperately to adjust for.
Number of time 50+ goals have been scored per decade from 1979-80 to 2011-12.
1979-80 to 1989-90 - 84 times.
1990-91 to 2000-2001 - 51 times.
2001-02 to 2011-2012 - 17 times.
I believe it's safe to conclude the numbers show that goalies have gotten progressively better over the last few decades.
I'd suspect Gretzky would score 60-70 goals a season in his prime in the modern day NHL. I beloved he his assists would drop significantly tho (80-90).
140-160 points a season would be a good guess for Gretzky.
First, Gretzky and Lemieux accounted for how many of those 50 goal seasons from 1980 to 1990? It's still a lot more in the 80s vs the 90s, but it's a bit closer.
Regarding Gretzky's assists, are we really to believe that Gretzky would be in the Henrik Sedin and Joe Thornton range?? I mean, this was a guy who once scored 122 assists (4th best all time) in the 90s while playing for the LA Kings. This is a guy who scored 163 assists in a year that Mario Lemieux scored 141 points in 79 games.
scoring more than 150 pts:
70s - 1 time - Esposito
80s - 12 times - Gretzky 8 times, Lemieux 2x, Steve Yzerman, Bernie Nicholls (thank you 99)
90s - Gretzky, Mario 2x
since - nobody
80's average scoring 7.67
now its some like 5.3 (! official lists dont take shootout goals into account)
198*5.3/7.67 = 136 goals
so THIS FAR stamkos has been clearly better.
this is not exact science.
The only problem with this method is it assumes Gretzky is not an outlier (such as Lemieux was during the dead puck era, for example), and that he fits nicely into the middle of the bell curve. Adjusted scoring affects most players far more than the outliers, as we have seen with Mario Lemieux.
He had bad goaltending on his team, but he had bad goaltending to shoot against too. And Wayne loved running up the score. Not to rub it in, he wasn't a dick, but just to rack up points video game style. I think in a more modern game he's a 140 point guy. I think in Wayne's case he was the best player, who happened to come along at the most ideal time offensively, with the most ideal team around him. Every puzzle piece fell into place. I sometimes wonder what modern offensive players would do in his place on those teams. Guys like Ovechkin or Datsyuk or Stamkos shooting on those goalies? That would be fun to see.
Sometimes I wonder if anyone actually watched Gretzky play in his prime. And I don't mean highlights. I mean situational play, such as this video here. Start watching at 7:20:
Gretzky could adapt to any situation. Like the video says, he always found "the sweet spot in time", and he did it time and time again. I watched him score a natural hat trick in one period in the 1997 playoffs against Florida in the dead puck era at age 36 playing for the Rangers. It was the way he played. No one could duplicate it, and you can't really compare it to X and Y skill set of whatever player you want to compare, modern or old. Gretzky would be scoring 60 goals and 110 assists if he were in his prime today with no red line off sides and no obstruction.
80's average scoring 7.67
now its some like 5.3 (! official lists dont take shootout goals into account)
198*5.3/7.67 = 136 goals
so THIS FAR stamkos has been clearly better.
this is not exact science.
Actually Gretzky was in the NHL for season 1 at 18 just like Stamkos. If you want to be fair, include Stamkos' rookie season. It is rather telling when you are trying to compare someone to Gretzky and you ignore said player's least productive season.
Whether you want to adjust it or not there is no amount of sugar that can make the difference here. Gretzky simply put has been a far better goal scorer than Stamkos in his first three years.
Even if you include Stamkos' 4th year and even if we give him a somewhat generous projection of 60 goals and then add Gretzky's 4th year the totals look like this:
Stamkos - 189
Gretzky - 269
Good for Stamkos, but that isn't really close. Gretzky was beating Bossy out for the goal scoring lead by significant margins. Stamkos so far has a tie with Crosby in 2010 although a most likely significant win by the end of 2012.
Ovechkin's first 4 years are at least comparable to Gretzky's. He had 219 goals. Still give the edge to Gretzky for the difference between his peers, but if you are going to compare someone to him then I would use Ovechkin.
This thread is chalk full of completely inappropriate stats.
Gretzky was a complete Outlier. The league put in SOO Many rules to stop him. They removed 4 on 4 during the 80's because it was synonymous with 'free goals for Gretzky'.
He would orchestrate stretch plays where the player leaving the ice on one end of the bench, while Gretzky changed at C ice for a 10 feet headstart on a breakaway (known as the now banned 'gretzky line change').
Gretzky dismantled coaching systems on the fly. He wasn't hitable because he just saw everyone at all times. It was like he saw the game from a birds eye view. He exploited every rule in the book, exploited every player's tendencies, knew every teams weakest links. Heck he knew every players/coaches/refs/managers names, their wives names, and their kids names. You can bet he knew how to deke past them, or however he could psyche out their tendencies.
I remember reading about when he was once running a hockey clinic, where an amateur Dman had his skate up against the post, and Gretzky had the puck behind the net. Allegedly Gretzky shot it THROUGH his skate into the slot, and a goal was scored, and the Dman was wondering how the hell that happened.
After the practice he took the puck, and realised the puck could barely fit through the space between the boot of the skate, and the blade. He shook his head thinking there was NO way he could do that. Gary Leeman saw that and mentioned that Gretzky ALWAYS did that to him in games.
He was impossible to defend against. Still put up 90 points as a 38 year old, in the middle of the DEAD PUCK era (Art Ross winners the next few years never even put up 100 points).
Gretzky was not stopped by coaching strategies. His shot wasn't hard, it was deceptive. He would look straight into Kurri's eyes and defenders would drop down to block the pass, and the goalie would cheat a bit to Kurri. Maintaining eye contact with Kurri, Gretzky would just shoot the puck off top corner right over the shoulder. When I was 7, I remember he scored a hat trick in a game sitting behind the net, and bouncing the puck off of defenders shins and in. They gave fits. They had no idea what they could do to defend that. They knew if they chased him, he would pass out front to Kurri in the slot.
That isn't the kind of thing a composite stick, or save % can predict. He wasn't bigger stronger or faster than anyone. He was just smarter and more creative than everyone combined. If you're gonna scale anything, scale player intelligence and vision.
I think he still would have gotten over 200.
Last edited by Perfect_Drug: 02-25-2012 at 12:08 AM.
That isn't the kind of thing a composite stick, or save % can predict. He wasn't bigger stronger or faster than anyone. He was just smarter and more creative than everyone combined. If you're gonna scale anything, scale player intelligence and vision.
I'm pretty sure Dave Semenko is the guy who said "Don't ever think that Gretzky can't see you on the ice". This is why I lose patience with people when they say that Gretzky wouldn't compete in today's game. Honestly, we've seen Henrik Sedin crack 83 assists in 2010. Thornton get 96 in 2006 and 92 in 2007. But Gretzky couldn't do that today? There was a post that said Gretzky would peak at 140 points today. Doubt it. Thornton hits 125 at his peak and we are to assume Gretzky is only 15 points better than him at his best?
Why is it that people are always so much more forgiving to Lemieux when it comes to how he would succeed in today's NHL? Is it because of his size? Well guess what, Lemieux was always 6'4" and it took him a while to catch up to Gretzky while they were playing. I think Lemieux would be just as good as he was today as well but the thing with Gretzky is that hockey sense and deception will always be succesful regardless of era.
Good for Stamkos, but that isn't really close. Gretzky was beating Bossy out for the goal scoring lead by significant margins. Stamkos so far has a tie with Crosby in 2010 although a most likely significant win by the end of 2012.
Ovechkin's first 4 years are at least comparable to Gretzky's. He had 219 goals. Still give the edge to Gretzky for the difference between his peers, but if you are going to compare someone to him then I would use Ovechkin.
Ah, the old "adjusted stats" huh? Always goes in the favour of the current player 100% of the time. Lots of flaws with that theory.........lots. The reason being is that it ignores spectacular seasons vs. the rest of the NHL field. With all due respect to Stamkos tell me, when has he ever had a goal scoring season where he had 28 and 31 more goals than the next best? And............was that next best Mike Bossy? It would almost be if Stamkos scored 25 more goals than a prime Ovechkin, for example.
It's a shame, because I love Stamkos but you are forcing me to make him look bad when you compare him to Gretzky.
Ah, the old "adjusted stats" huh? Always goes in the favour of the current player 100% of the time. Lots of flaws with that theory.........lots. The reason being is that it ignores spectacular seasons vs. the rest of the NHL field. With all due respect to Stamkos tell me, when has he ever had a goal scoring season where he had 28 and 31 more goals than the next best? And............was that next best Mike Bossy? It would almost be if Stamkos scored 25 more goals than a prime Ovechkin, for example.
It's a shame, because I love Stamkos but you are forcing me to make him look bad when you compare him to Gretzky.
well. he does not look bad according to stats?
and this guy is only 22. 9 gwg this far. 8 last season.
he is going to break 100 gwg in ten years.
gretzky had how many? 91. its tie with mark recchi.
and gretz peaked at 22 goalwise! how come? its because of powerhouse oilers. hes got only one 50+ (35-40 by todays standards) season after leaving oilers.
It's a shame, because I like gretz but you are forcing me to make him look bad when you compare him to Stamkos
PS: adjusted stats is not a theory. its rather simple math.
well. he does not look bad according to stats?
and this guy is only 22. 9 gwg this far. 8 last season.
he is going to break 100 gwg in ten years.
He is? Well just for the record Ovechkin was supposed to unseat Gretzky's 894 goals as well. Reality is far removed from a long shot projection. Let's see Stamkos be healthy for a decade first.
Quote:
gretzky had how many? 91. its tie with mark recchi.
And Brendan Shanahan has 106. Is he a more clutch goal scorer in the regular season than Gretzky? Playoff GWG Gretzky is #1 with 24. Stamkos has 1. The kid has a long ways to go.
Quote:
It's a shame, because I like gretz but you are forcing me to make him look bad when you compare him to Stamkos
You've got to be kidding? Or trolling right? Are you actually saying that Stamkos is considered the better goal scorer despite playing in under 4 NHL seasons? Tell me you aren't.
Quote:
PS: adjusted stats is not a theory. its rather simple math
Adjusted stats never favours the higher scoring player nearly 100% of the time. A fool proof way of comparing players is seeing how they compared to their peers.
well. he does not look bad according to stats?
and this guy is only 22. 9 gwg this far. 8 last season.
he is going to break 100 gwg in ten years.
gretzky had how many? 91. its tie with mark recchi.
and gretz peaked at 22 goalwise! how come? its because of powerhouse oilers. hes got only one 50+ (35-40 by todays standards) season after leaving oilers.
It's a shame, because I like gretz but you are forcing me to make him look bad when you compare him to Stamkos
PS: adjusted stats is not a theory. its rather simple math.
You're right, it is simple math. It completely ignores the statistical bell curve, players playing in the 99th percentile, and just how dominant Gretzky was.
Using the adjusted stats it gives guys Bossy seasons of 35 goals. It gives a prime Bryan Trottier 25 goals. And Gretzky still dominated them.
Gretzky was such an insane outlier. You guys just don't understand how much of an outlier he was.
Gretzky's 215 points was 70 points more than Mario (who we can all agree was also an Outlier). Gretzky had 92 points more than Mike Bossy (The first player not Lemieux or an Oiler). He was putting up nearly double the points of the next players in the scoring race.
Like a 70 point lead on 2nd place (who we can agree was also an Outlier).
The misconception with these adjusted stats, is assuming that Gretzky was just a little better than his peers. He was SO much better than everyone in the league by a huge margin. By nearly double the points. I don't think we've seen a gap that wide between 1st and 2nd in scoring.
when you adjust for league trends he maxed out around 65-70 goals. But don't forget...we are talking about one of the most unselfish players ever, he passed up several goals every year because he OBSESSESIVELY had to hit the open man.
here he is scoring 8 points against an admittedly lame devils effort. jump to 10min for one of his typical sweet little finesse moves that he pulled off EVERY game of his career. watch the whole thing, he tried to do this every single game he laced em up for in the 80's. (bonus=young paul coffey hits the jets and goes coast to coast from behind his own net...he's flying)
the dudes competitiveness was insane. before his injuries forced him to throw in the towel as a defensive hockey player (90's) he was coming after you all game every game. I hate to break it to the doubters but gretzky would shread this league.
You've got to be kidding? Or trolling right? Are you actually saying that Stamkos is considered the better goal scorer despite playing in under 4 NHL seasons? Tell me you aren't.
not trolling. maybe im little provocative to get some conversation here. i honestly think that stamkos is SO FAR as good as a goalscorer than gretz was.
IF stammer continues at the same level some 10 years i will rate him higher.
gwgs are not so much about "clutch". they are just another way to adjust.
here is a list of TOP 7 according adjusted stats + gwgs + gwg rating.
you really think its pure coincidence that these lists make perfect match?
(the only exception is gretz. that tells something about his oilers years. if you play games resulting 8-7 or 12-1 you cannot get many gwgs. there is only one per game and oilers had some other snipers too.)
Gordie Howe* 925 many 1.
Wayne Gretzky* 758 91 13.
Brett Hull* 738 110 4.
Jaromir Jagr 721 114 3.
Teemu Selanne 713 104 6.
Brendan Shanahan 672 109 5.
Phil Esposito 671 118 2.
and.. this list is NOT about BEST goalscorers. its a
list of players who scored proportionally MOST goals.
(i admit that shanny SEEMS to be at wrong place. but he isnt)
not trolling. maybe im little provocative to get some conversation here. i honestly think that stamkos is SO FAR as good as a goalscorer than gretz was.
IF stammer continues at the same level some 10 years i will rate him higher.
gwgs are not so much about "clutch". they are just another way to adjust.
here is a list of 7 most scoring players according adjusted stats and also the number of gwgs. you really think its pure coincidence that these lists make perfect match?
only exception is gretz. that tells something about his oilers years. if you play games resulting 8-7 or 12-1 you cannot get many gwgs. there is only one per game and oilers had some other snipers too.
Gordie Howe* 925 many 1.
Wayne Gretzky* 758 91 13.
Brett Hull* 738 110 4.
Jaromir Jagr 721 114 3.
Teemu Selanne 713 104 6.
Brendan Shanahan 672 109 5.
Phil Esposito* 671 118 2.
and.. this list is NOT about BEST goalscorers. its a
list about players who scored MOST.
(i admit that shanny SEEMS to be at wrong place. but he isnt)
Look, we've yet to see Stamkos win the goalscoring title outright. He tied Crosby in 2010 and Ovechkin only lost to both of them because he missed 10 games.
Give him some time and maybe, just maybe, he ends up as a goal scorer as great as Brett Hull. Adjust all you want, the stats, the comparison to the peers and the eye test favours Gretzky every time. And right now, it isn't even close.
The question remains, is that gap so large because Gretzky was that awesome, or because there was such a large disparity in talent which may not exist to such an extent today.
Gretzky WAS that awesome. There would still be a disparity in the league today if a prime Gretz was in it. He made everybody around him better, so his teammates would be better than they actually are today, no matter what team he'd be on.
I just wish everybody got a chance to see him do his thing in his prime.
