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More Fun Facts: This time I take DEFENSE into account

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Old
02-25-2012, 04:42 AM
  #1
Face Wash
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More Fun Facts: This time I take DEFENSE into account

So, as many of you know I've been talking about my stat of the year which is only one team in 23 years has made the playoffs as the worst offensive team in the league. Some of you have felt that stat doesn't apply to the Kings because they're one of the 4 best defensive teams in hockey so Quisp actually asked me to show some Goal Differential stats that would be more indicative.

In order to compare apples to apples you have to do Goal Diff. since the League went to a 30 team/82 game schedule.

Back in the day when there were only 21 teams and 16 playoff teams in the league lots of teams had HUGE minus seasons and made the playoffs, so that's not indicative of today's game where last season NO team with a negative GD made the playoffs. So with that in mind,
  1. Since the League went to 30 teams ('00-'01) 160 teams have made the playoffs. Only 13 had a negative Goal differential or 8.1%
  2. The worst +/- Goal Diff is a tie between '00-01 Canes & 09-10 Sens (-13). Those Canes were 19th in offense, those Sens were 16th in Offense
  3. The only other double-digit negative team to make the playoffs since '00-'01 is '07-'08 Bruins (-10) and they were 25th in offense.
  4. None of the 13 teams in the negative that made the playoffs since '00-'01 were the WORST team in the NHL on offense.
  5. The worst offensive team that's made the playoffs since '00-'01 was the '03-'04 Blues and they scored 2.33 goals per game. The Kings would have to score 2.95 G/G the rest of the way to match the worst offensive team to make the playoffs in the last 11 years.
  6. The most number of negative Goal Diff teams to make the playoffs since '00-'01 per season is 2 and currently there are 4 teams with negative GD with playoff spots (NJD WPG, FLA & DAL).
  7. This season will be an anomoly as at least one team from the pathetic Southeast Division will make the playoffs with a horrible Goal Differential.
  8. Currently DAL has the worst GD in the West (-11) of teams with a playoff spot. Kings are a minus-3.
  9. As of now the team with a playoff spot with the fewest G/G is FLA (2.42 G/G). Worst in West is STL (2.49 G/G).
  10. LAK with its NHL worst 2.05 G/G would have to score 3.52 G/G to catch FLA in goals, which again has the WORST G/G of the 16 team w/ playoff spots.
Final analysis: While making the playoffs isn't out of the question, only about 8% of playoff teams finished where the Kings are from a Goal Differential standpoint and none of those team were nearly as anemic offensively as the Kings have proven to be. They've gotta get out of the offensive cellar quickly or it's futile.


Last edited by Face Wash: 02-25-2012 at 10:03 AM.
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02-25-2012, 04:45 AM
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If the Kings outscore their opponents down the stretch here, they will make the playoffs. All I got out of it.

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02-25-2012, 05:14 AM
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So scoring goals is good is what you're saying ? Ok got it.

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02-25-2012, 05:19 AM
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Face Wash
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Telos View Post
If the Kings outscore their opponents down the stretch here, they will make the playoffs. All I got out of it.
You make that sound so easy, like the Kings have been doing that for long stretches this season.

As Dan Patrick would say... You're better than that Telos.

It's about historical perspective. It tells you if they make the playoffs, they'll likely have done something no one else has ever done or could do.

There's only a small chance the Kings SHOULD make the playoffs based on those numbers. There's no way they'll catch even the worst offensive team currently in the playoffs in goals.

In fact IMO, if the Kings make the playoffs at all at this point, Quick has to get the Hart Trophy, which only 6 goalies in 80-some years have ever won. It's that kinda slim.

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02-25-2012, 05:21 AM
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Face Wash
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Originally Posted by Puck U View Post
So scoring goals is good is what you're saying ? Ok got it.
That's what I've been saying all along. Some of the more Kool-Aid drinking sort around here weren't buying it. They love Lombardi to the point where they believe his concept of defense first should always succeed. They Thought if I factored in Defense it raises the Kings chances... yeah, by about 8%.

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02-25-2012, 06:11 AM
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Fascinating. Basically the fact that LA is even in playoff contention with an offense like that is a miracle.

But here's another way of looking at it. The Kings are currently ranked 3rd in overall defense with a 2.10 GAA. Has a team in the top 5 in defense ever NOT made the playoffs?

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02-25-2012, 06:31 AM
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Face Wash
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Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
Fascinating. Basically the fact that LA is even in playoff contention with an offense like that is a miracle.

But here's another way of looking at it. The Kings are currently ranked 3rd in overall defense with a 2.10 GAA. Has a team in the top 5 in defense ever NOT made the playoffs?
2001-02 - EDM 2nd fewest Goals allowed (missed playoffs)
2003-04 - MIN 4th fewest Goals allowed (missed playoffs)
2005-06 - MIN 5th fewest Goals allowed (missed playoffs)
2008-09 - MIN 2nd fewest Goals allowed (missed playoffs)

And this is just checking the last 11 years. Going back further:

1999-00 - MTL - 4th fewest Goals allowed (missed playoffs)
1995-96 - NJD - 2nd fewest Goals allowed (missed playoffs)
1993-94 - FLA - 4th fewest Goals allowed (missed playoffs)


Last edited by Face Wash: 02-25-2012 at 06:37 AM.
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02-25-2012, 06:44 AM
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Good stats FW.

The "defense wins championship" cliche no longer exists in not only hockey but pretty much every other major NA sport.

Now the question is, does this regime finally realize that with this Carter/JJ trade, or was this move made to save their own skin?

I really hope the decision makers have turned a corner, I really do. But man did they dig a hole for this team going forward offensively with their archaic stye from 2006 to 2012

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02-25-2012, 06:58 AM
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Face Wash
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Originally Posted by Herby View Post
Good stats FW.

The "defense wins championship" cliche no longer exists in not only hockey but pretty much every other major NA sport.

Now the question is, does this regime finally realize that with this Carter/JJ trade, or was this move made to save their own skin?

I really hope the decision makers have turned a corner, I really do. But man did they dig a hole for this team going forward offensively with their archaic stye from 2006 to 2012
But here's some good news:

3 teams recently made the playoffs in the bottom 5 of offense that were top 5 in defense:
  • 2009-10 - BOS 2nd worst in offense (2.51 G/G | +6 GD) but 2nd best in defense and lost in the 2nd round (won Cup the following year)
  • 2007-08 - ANA 3rd worst offense (2.5 G/G | +14 GD) but 2nd best defense and lost in 1st round
  • 2005-06 - CAL 3rd worst in offense (2.66 G/G | +18 GD) but #1 in defense that season and lost in 1st round (guess who the head coach was).

But even then all these teams scored a significant amount more goals than the Kings are scoring.


Last edited by Face Wash: 02-25-2012 at 07:08 AM.
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02-25-2012, 07:46 AM
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Damnit FW, you and your good research.

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02-25-2012, 08:06 AM
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Originally Posted by kingsholygrail View Post
Damnit FW, you and your good research.
ehhh, long hours on a graveyard shift.

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02-25-2012, 08:36 AM
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FW ....please stop with the hard facts we are kings fans and need none of this, if we can some how make the playoffs we have as much a chance at the cup as those ******** from detroit or vancouver and their polished offense, we have known this for forty years or so, the mantra is JUST MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND RIDE THE HOT GOALIE, we can do this now not becuse of our off or def but in the fact that we are ddead last in off and tied with almost everybody in points, so God seems to be holding them back so we have a chance, please don't muddy the view from these purple colored glasses with your facts

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02-25-2012, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by yankeeking View Post
FW ....please stop with the hard facts we are kings fans and need none of this, if we can some how make the playoffs we have as much a chance at the cup as those ******** from detroit or vancouver and their polished offense, we have known this for forty years or so, the mantra is JUST MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND RIDE THE HOT GOALIE, we can do this now not becuse of our off or def but in the fact that we are ddead last in off and tied with almost everybody in points, so God seems to be holding them back so we have a chance, please don't muddy the view from these purple colored glasses with your facts
Facts are a *****....God is fickle.

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02-25-2012, 08:58 AM
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People always disagree on the conclusions but whenever someone does detailed stat breakdowns like this I'm always impressed. Good work Face Wash.

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02-25-2012, 09:06 AM
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People always disagree on the conclusions but whenever someone does detailed stat breakdowns like this I'm always impressed. Good work Face Wash.
thank you kindly.

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02-25-2012, 09:30 AM
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No team has ever come back from a 3=1 deficit to win the cup. Well that one fell so it is no longer a fact. No team ever who has allowed more goals during a game then they have scored have one ANY game in ANY sport.
blah blah blah.

The thing is that to me one of the biggest reasons that sports are constantly entertaining is that anything can happen. Any team actually can beat any other team on any day.

Oh and how about this gem, "the playoffs are an entirely new season", it is absolutely true.

Finally, "CINDERELLA STORY".

Stats don't prove themselves out in this case as being 100% reliable otherwise there would be no point in watching any sport ever. The best team with the best stats would without fail win every game and therefore ever championship and we know that statistically speaking that just isn't the case.

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02-25-2012, 09:39 AM
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Sydor25
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Face wash, where are you getting your goal-differentials? The kings are -3 right now. Dallas is -8.

Are you including the shootout "goals" in your totals?

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02-25-2012, 09:44 AM
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Face Wash
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NHL.com... from the standings, but you're right, I should be looking at the team stats for that. Either way, the Historical numbers are from a different source which is accurate. Any new numbers I put out for this season would be slightly adjusted, not enough to make a big deal though and skew the overall.

Have pity on me, I'm on about 20 straight hours with no sleep and I have at least 5 more to go.

EDIT: Fixed.


Last edited by Face Wash: 02-25-2012 at 09:51 AM.
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02-25-2012, 09:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Face Wash View Post
NHL.com... from the standings, but you're right, I should be looking at the team stats for that. Either way, the Historical numbers are from a different source which is accurate. Any new numbers I put out for this season would be slightly adjusted, not enough to make a big deal though and skew the overall.

Have pity on me, I'm on about 20 straight hours with no sleep and I have at least 5 more to go.


Well, add NJ to the teams with a negative GD in a playoff spot. They are a -2 without the shootout goals. I'm too lazy to check the other teams.

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02-25-2012, 09:51 AM
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I think the point FW is making has to do with probability more than what has happened at either extreme of any analysis.

The Kings need a drastic improvement in their offense in order to make the playoffs and be competitive once there. Without that improvement the team is highly unlikely to succeed.

On one hand it's obvious, but on the other it's true and the Kings are seriously pushing their luck if the offense doesn't pick it up.

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02-25-2012, 09:55 AM
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etherialone
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Originally Posted by BallPointHammer View Post
I think the point FW is making has to do with probability more than what has happened at either extreme of any analysis.

The Kings need a drastic improvement in their offense in order to make the playoffs and be competitive once there. Without that improvement the team is highly unlikely to succeed.

On one hand it's obvious, but on the other it's true and the Kings are seriously pushing their luck if the offense doesn't pick it up.
So....you are saying we have a chance, right?


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02-25-2012, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
No team has ever come back from a 3=1 deficit to win the cup. Well that one fell so it is no longer a fact. No team ever who has allowed more goals during a game then they have scored have one ANY game in ANY sport.
blah blah blah.

The thing is that to me one of the biggest reasons that sports are constantly entertaining is that anything can happen. Any team actually can beat any team on any given day.
I don't think anyone really disagrees with this sentiment. I'll gladly ride a miracle to the Cup. I've ridden a (very) few of those type charges as a life time Kings fan. But I would rather the Kings be dominant season after season and that only can happen if the organization is fundamentally pragmatic.

The best team in the playoffs has better odds to get lucky than does the 16th team and upper tier teams usually have advantages to overcome hot weak teams. Facts suck but they can also be a key feature in greatness.

I want the Kings to be the most hated team in the league. That's also something we all probably share.

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02-25-2012, 10:02 AM
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Face Wash
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Well, add NJ to the teams with a negative GD in a playoff spot. They are a -2 without the shootout goals. I'm too lazy to check the other teams.
I think that's it.

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02-25-2012, 10:04 AM
  #24
Sydor25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
So....you are saying we have a chance, right?

Yes, but they are fading fast.


Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Did not play, playoff odds down 1.5 to 25.4%
66 points * 27 22-12

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02-25-2012, 10:08 AM
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ehhh, long hours on a graveyard shift.
I know that feel, bro. lol

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