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2011-12 Magic Number/Elimination Thread

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Old
03-14-2012, 09:18 AM
  #76
SnowblindNYR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FromTheSide View Post
BUF / WPG can only get a maximum of 98 pts, Rangers have every tie breaker against them, So yes, 3 points.
Cool thanks. I remember when 3 was the magic number with 2 or 3 games remaining.

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Old
03-14-2012, 10:25 AM
  #77
Mayor Bee
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Good news and bad news. The good news is that I actually managed to get everything fed in last night and have the numbers updated on my end. The bad news is that my ISP thought they'd be funny and cut my service for some unknown reason. This is the third or fourth time that this has inexplicably happened in addition to all my other issues with their service since the day I signed on 18 months ago, and unfortunately I live in an area with them and no one else so there's no competition.

If it's not back on by the time I get home, believe me when I say that mild-mannered me just might have to do something out of character....I might raise my voice.

UPDATE: An angry call was made, the issue has been fixed, and last night has finally been updated. Turns out that just because there's a "receipt" and a "confirmation number", it doesn't really mean that payment was posted to an account.


Last edited by Mayor Bee: 03-14-2012 at 06:35 PM.
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Old
03-14-2012, 11:49 PM
  #78
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Updated through 3/14/2012

No movement tonight, no clinching and no elimination.

First clinchings can take place this week though, so keep checking back on here. I'll start posting upcoming updates before turning in for the night if there is a clinching or an elimination that can take place.

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03-15-2012, 01:19 AM
  #79
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I'm confused. Coyotes got 2 points in regulation. Shouldn't we have been moved down to 22 points?

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03-15-2012, 06:48 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by awfulwaffle View Post
I'm confused. Coyotes got 2 points in regulation. Shouldn't we have been moved down to 22 points?
Calgary won, so technically the yotes could get 23 points and miss the playoffs

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03-15-2012, 08:49 AM
  #81
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this is my first time looking at this thing. Im assuming Mayor Bee's numbers to clinching are a moving target based on what other teams are doing?

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Old
03-15-2012, 08:58 AM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panthersflames1 View Post
this is my first time looking at this thing. Im assuming Mayor Bee's numbers to clinching are a moving target based on what other teams are doing?
They are if everybody wins out how many points would be required to make the playoffs

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Old
03-15-2012, 09:23 AM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by awfulwaffle View Post
I'm confused. Coyotes got 2 points in regulation. Shouldn't we have been moved down to 22 points?
I might have missed updating that particular one; I'll be home around 6 PM and I'll double check to verify it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by panthersflames1 View Post
this is my first time looking at this thing. Im assuming Mayor Bee's numbers to clinching are a moving target based on what other teams are doing?
Right. A magic number is a function of both what a particular team is doing and what other teams are doing, more specifically what a team at a cutoff point is doing. To be eliminated, the number of points that a team can end the season with must fall below what the 8th-highest point total in the conference is; to clinch, the number of points that a team has accumulated must be above what the 9th-highest number of possible points in the conference is.

So if Team A has 90 points and Team B (with 9th-highest possible point total in the conference) can finish with 91, Team A can either clinch with a win or with a Team B loss. A win would give them 92, which is obviously greater than 91; a Team B loss would mean that they could finish with no more than 89 points, so they can't catch Team A no matter what.

There are occasionally some weird things that take place. For example, Colorado winning games theoretically pushes them closer to elimination, since they do not control their destiny (their possible points is 11th in the West); with the 8th-highest point total in the conference, a win actually lowers their elimination number. That's something that will relieve itself as we get closer to all teams playing the same number of games.

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Old
03-15-2012, 09:28 AM
  #84
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Any way you could put in the number of points needed to clinch the President's Trophy?

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Old
03-15-2012, 09:50 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluesfan94 View Post
Any way you could put in the number of points needed to clinch the President's Trophy?
I probably will on Sunday or Monday, along with the new head-to-head tiebreakers.

St. Louis and the Rangers is pretty much a deadlock. The Rangers can finish with 1 more point; they're currently tied with the first tiebreaker, and the second tiebreaker does not apply because they've only played one game against each other and won't again this season. The third tiebreaker (goal differential) is extremely tight as well.

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03-15-2012, 10:41 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
Calgary won, so technically the yotes could get 23 points and miss the playoffs
What? If we won out, we would get 22 points total. We are 3 points ahead of you with 1 less game remaining than you. If the Coyotes win out, it doesn't matter.

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Old
03-15-2012, 05:15 PM
  #87
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The number for Phoenix is in fact 22; it's been corrected on the main post. I have no idea how I missed that one last night.

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Old
03-15-2012, 11:20 PM
  #88
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Rangers are very close to clinching a playoff spot..

Max points Sabres can get right now is 97 points and they can't catch up to the Rangers' 41 ROW so one win or Sabres loss places them ahead of the Sabres.

Jets can hit 98 points and can (if the Rangers lose out) catch up on ROW but lose H2H.

Rangers clinch with:

1) ANY 3 points earned (win + OT/SO loss)
2) Buffalo loss + 2 Jets loss
3) Win + Jets loss

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Old
03-16-2012, 08:05 AM
  #89
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Well, it took forever (or 8 1/2 hours), but the initial post finally updated through the end of last night's games.

Did I mention how much I hate my ISP?

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Old
03-16-2012, 11:58 PM
  #90
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Updated through 3/16/2012

I'm exhausted right now, so I can't update various scenarios for tomorrow. I'll get to that in the morning, so no one's caught off guard when the games start.

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Old
03-17-2012, 07:51 AM
  #91
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Shouldn't Ottawa have the "x points to clinch NE"?

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Old
03-17-2012, 09:56 AM
  #92
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Today's scenarios:

- Montreal can be eliminated from the division race with a regulation loss against NY Islanders AND an Ottawa regulation/OT win against Toronto

Several other things can get right to the brink without clinching or eliminating, but it looks like Montreal is the only thing that can actually happen today.

Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
Shouldn't Ottawa have the "x points to clinch NE"?
Boston has two games in hand on Ottawa and thus still controls their destiny in the division. Boston can finish with 107 points, Ottawa 104.

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Old
03-17-2012, 12:31 PM
  #93
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great thread. thanks for the work

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Old
03-17-2012, 08:44 PM
  #94
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Blues are the first team to clinch a playoff spot, according to NHL.com

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Old
03-17-2012, 09:53 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DracoVondran View Post
Blues are the first team to clinch a playoff spot, according to NHL.com
due to the fact that other teams in the west race play against each other so one of those teams have to lose resulting in the blues clinching before it looks like it.

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Old
03-17-2012, 11:31 PM
  #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbadbruins7 View Post
due to the fact that other teams in the west race play against each other so one of those teams have to lose resulting in the blues clinching before it looks like it.
#7 Colorado have 8 games left and 83 points. They max out at 99
#8 Phoenix has 10 games left at 81 max 101
#9 San Jose 10 games with 80 max 100
#10 LA 9 games with 80 max 98
#11 Calgary 8 games with 80 max 96

St. Louis only needed to beat three out of the five to clinch and they did.

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Old
03-18-2012, 12:14 AM
  #97
Mayor Bee
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Updated through 3/17/2012

I've added a "points to clinch seed" next to St. Louis. If they hit 105, the Central Division champion will automatically have a top-2 seed, even if it's not the Blues.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wildthing202 View Post
#7 Colorado have 8 games left and 83 points. They max out at 99
#8 Phoenix has 10 games left at 81 max 101
#9 San Jose 10 games with 80 max 100
#10 LA 9 games with 80 max 98
#11 Calgary 8 games with 80 max 96

St. Louis only needed to beat three out of the five to clinch and they did.
These totals aren't accurate.

Colorado can't catch St. Louis and thus isn't in the discussion. Calgary can tie, but loses on the second tiebreaker (R/OW).

Phoenix can finish with 101
Los Angeles can finish with 102
San Jose can finish with 104

St. Louis holds the second tiebreaker on all of these teams.

(I'm going to be honest here. I just spent about five minutes running through every scenario of what it would take for St. Louis to not clinch, and the one I may have found is simply so bizarre it will never happen. So I'm listing St. Louis as clinching.)


Last edited by Mayor Bee: 03-18-2012 at 12:21 AM.
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Old
03-18-2012, 01:24 AM
  #98
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Shouldn't Vancouver be 7 (and not 8) to clinch playoff spot if they're 7 to clinch northwest division?

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Old
03-18-2012, 02:37 AM
  #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YeOldeRyaneClowe View Post
Shouldn't Vancouver be 7 (and not 8) to clinch playoff spot if they're 7 to clinch northwest division?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
There are also cases where the number to clinch a playoff spot (breaking above 8th) is actually higher than the number to clinch the division; I usually keep both numbers going. I don't know why, but I do.
reeaaaaaddd

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Old
03-18-2012, 06:09 AM
  #100
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Of the teams that have theoretical chance to catch St. Louis, concentrating on Dallas, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Jose, there are still seven head-to-heads where one team has to give up at least a point.

3 x SJ vs. LA
2 x SJ vs. Dal
2 x SJ vs. Phx

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