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Which prospects won't make it??

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11-04-2004, 11:25 AM
  #1
Habs4ever
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Which prospects won't make it??

I know lot of people make top twenty or top 25 prospect list but from those who won't make it??

I don't want to give any names considering I'll get lot of heat for taking some highly touted prospects down, but I ask real prospect evaluater to answer this question, because we have total optimism over our prospect but some just won't make it, and I just want to get realistic point of view on some of the over rated prospects that haven't really done much since drafted but still get lot of hype!!

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11-04-2004, 11:51 AM
  #2
MasterD
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IMO

Hainsey and Hossa won't make it

Plekanec will do it, but I'm not so sure if he'll do it here. We have too many centers right now for him to jum in and play a big role..

Higgins will make it, Perez will make it

Kost, it's too early to tell.. it all depends where he can bring his defensive play, and how much the management will let him go away with... if they ask him to become as good as, let's say a Ryder or a Koivu, who are really good for offensive guys, he'll fail - here.

Chipchura will do it, but he won't be much more than a very solid 3rd liner.. a Mike Ricci maybe - Big, physical, some offensive capacities but not that big numbers... Can take the 2nd line in case of injuries, but if he does it over a full season we're in for a bad season

That's how I see it

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11-04-2004, 12:47 PM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habs4ever
I know lot of people make top twenty or top 25 prospect list but from those who won't make it??

I don't want to give any names considering I'll get lot of heat for taking some highly touted prospects down, but I ask real prospect evaluater to answer this question, because we have total optimism over our prospect but some just won't make it, and I just want to get realistic point of view on some of the over rated prospects that haven't really done much since drafted but still get lot of hype!!

Most won't make it to the NHL with the Habs, there's only so many spots and they all can't make it. Guys like Urquhart, Archer, Milroy, Halak, Lindberg, Korneev, O'Byrne, Korpikari, Cote, Ferland, Yemelin, Locke, Lambert, Lapierre, Flood, Greg Stewart, Grabovsky, Linhart, Shasby, Gleed have their work cut out for them to see the NHL. Some of these guys will make it and most wont imo. Guys like Michaud, Larrivee, Thinel, Bonneau, Danny Stewart, Dulac-Lemelin, are at the bottom of the group and have a long long ways to go, as they have several quality prospects they will have to overcome.

Guys like Higgins, Chipchura, Perezhogin, Kostitsyn, Plekanec, Danis, Hossa, and Hainsey are the cream of the crop, but it's likely that not all of them will make it. Who won't, well how can anyone really say as it's all about progression, development, timing, luck, chances, etc...

One thing I learned was never to count out any player. Time will tell what happens, this is what makes it hard to say X or Y player won't make it, and A or B player will make it.

In my opinion, Higgins, Chipchura, Plekanec, Danis, Hossa, will all be NHLers.

Perezhogin, Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Hainsey, Korpikari will likely be NHLers, I'd be shocked not to see them in the NHL.

Ferland, Greg Stewart, O'Byrne, Urquhart, Locke, Flood, Lindberg, Korneev, Lambert, Milroy could be NHLers, but have a lot to work on and or will need to continue to progress/develop by a considerable amount. Based on their skill level or the kind of game they play.

Guys like Danny Stewart, Dulac-Lemelin, Larrivee, I don't think will make it. Thinel and Michaud likely won't either but who knows.

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11-04-2004, 02:54 PM
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Absolutely agree with your stratification of prospects Dan. One exception may be Bonneau - only because of his skill set in the extra-curriculars

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11-04-2004, 03:10 PM
  #5
Alexander Ovechkin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal
Most won't make it to the NHL with the Habs, there's only so many spots and they all can't make it. Guys like Urquhart, Archer, Milroy, Halak, Lindberg, Korneev, O'Byrne, Korpikari, Cote, Ferland, Yemelin, Locke, Lambert, Lapierre, Flood, Greg Stewart, Grabovsky, Linhart, Shasby, Gleed have their work cut out for them to see the NHL. Some of these guys will make it and most wont imo. Guys like Michaud, Larrivee, Thinel, Bonneau, Danny Stewart, Dulac-Lemelin, are at the bottom of the group and have a long long ways to go, as they have several quality prospects they will have to overcome.

Guys like Higgins, Chipchura, Perezhogin, Kostitsyn, Plekanec, Danis, Hossa, and Hainsey are the cream of the crop, but it's likely that not all of them will make it. Who won't, well how can anyone really say as it's all about progression, development, timing, luck, chances, etc...

One thing I learned was never to count out any player. Time will tell what happens, this is what makes it hard to say X or Y player won't make it, and A or B player will make it.

In my opinion, Higgins, Chipchura, Plekanec, Danis, Hossa, will all be NHLers.

Perezhogin, Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Hainsey, Korpikari will likely be NHLers, I'd be shocked not to see them in the NHL.

Ferland, Greg Stewart, O'Byrne, Urquhart, Locke, Flood, Lindberg, Korneev, Lambert, Milroy could be NHLers, but have a lot to work on and or will need to continue to progress/develop by a considerable amount. Based on their skill level or the kind of game they play.

Guys like Danny Stewart, Dulac-Lemelin, Larrivee, I don't think will make it. Thinel and Michaud likely won't either but who knows.
I agree perfectly with you Montreal !!

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11-04-2004, 03:36 PM
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There is no way to predict this. Injuries, attitude, drive can all change in the course of a year. How many people on this site, aside from myself, honestly thought that Ryder would have made it last year?

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11-04-2004, 10:35 PM
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WEll I thought he could make it last year!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prrebel
There is no way to predict this. Injuries, attitude, drive can all change in the course of a year. How many people on this site, aside from myself, honestly thought that Ryder would have made it last year?

it wasn't actually surprise, as he was already dominating the AHL year before, and just like him I have same feeling about Hossa, Hainsey they get lot of bad rep on this board but honestly they are the most ready prospect we've got who can play in NHL.

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11-05-2004, 09:47 AM
  #8
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The only prospect I would honestly bet $500 on having an NHL career of 500-60o NHL games or better is Higgins.

I would bet, maybe, $50-$100 on Kostitsyn & Chipchura having a similar career.

Maybe $10-$20 on Perezhogin.....and truthfully dunno if I would put money on anybody else.

Not that I don't have faith in any other prospects, it's just prospects are risky at best, and so many more don't turn out than do, so.......

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11-05-2004, 11:04 AM
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I would be highly surprised if ever Kostitsyn and Chipchu never make it at the NHL level but at the moment its too early to tell... Chipchu seems to be the perfect third line center in the making while Kostitsyn althought raw has great potential..

All what I can say at the moment is that I'm 100% sure Perezhogin, Higgins and Plekanec will all play in the NHL very soon for a long time..

Hossa has great chances to make it as well... If not with the Habs, with another team... around 90% chances IMO

Hainsey has showed very little progress in the last few years... Still too much flaws to be a regular with the Habs... I dont know why but I think Hainsey will progress more with the big club than with the farm... Our vets will show him the right way... Could become a great PP specialist, he has the potential but will he reach that? 60% chances to be a regular in the NHL one day IMO.

I like the chances of OByrn, Lapierre, Korpikari and Danis.. Milroy could surprise too..

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11-05-2004, 11:27 AM
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He's not technically a "prospect" but what are Mark Streit's chances of being in a Habs uniform anytime soon? Since Hainsey will be searching for a spot in the NHL soon, will there be any openings Streit can work himself into? He seems to be playing very well, or at least being productive, in Zurich right now.

2004-05 Zurich LNSw GP:17 G:9 A:4 PTS:13 PIM:10

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Old
11-05-2004, 11:43 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habs4ever
I know lot of people make top twenty or top 25 prospect list but from those who won't make it??

I don't want to give any names considering I'll get lot of heat for taking some highly touted prospects down, but I ask real prospect evaluater to answer this question, because we have total optimism over our prospect but some just won't make it, and I just want to get realistic point of view on some of the over rated prospects that haven't really done much since drafted but still get lot of hype!!
Most of our prospects won't make it to the NHL. Some players are projects and will only make it if they overcome their shortcomings (whether it's a lack of foot speed, lack of size, lack of determination, lack of a work ethic, lack of aggressiveness, etc...).

It's probably a fair assumption that most prospects won't have very long careers as there really is only 3 or 4 rookie players added to the average NHL roster each year and even at that, they don't play every game. Out of the 3 or 4 added to a roster, 1 or 2 might have a prolonged career and the rest will not (injuries? better prospect brought up? etc...). When you consider that each year, there are 9 new prospects added to a list and only 1 or 2 make it, you get the feeling that most of our hopes really are unrealistic.

So, as much as you want to know which ones won't make it, the better question really is "which one WILL make it?" since most players won't.

Of the group of prospects that we currently have, I'd say that Higgins is the most likely to have a long and successful career (barring injuries). After Higgins, I'd say that Chipchura is the most likely to have a long and successful career but it's way too early to tell in his case. After Chipchura, I'd say that Kostitsyn and Perezhogin are the most likely to have great careers. After Perezhogin, I'd say Hossa and Hainsey could have successful careers if they can get passed the "lazy" tag associated with them. After Hainsey, I'd say that Danis and Plekanek could have successful careers. Beyond that, there are guys who could make it through hard work and dedication (and being at the right place at the right time) but it becomes much harder to predict. Guys like Urquhart, Locke, Lambert, Ferland and Korpikari could all eventually be called up if they meet or exceed expectations but they definately have some work cut out for them.

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11-05-2004, 12:00 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patp77
Most of our prospects won't make it to the NHL. Some players are projects and will only make it if they overcome their shortcomings (whether it's a lack of foot speed, lack of size, lack of determination, lack of a work ethic, lack of aggressiveness, etc...).

It's probably a fair assumption that most prospects won't have very long careers as there really is only 3 or 4 rookie players added to the average NHL roster each year and even at that, they don't play every game. Out of the 3 or 4 added to a roster, 1 or 2 might have a prolonged career and the rest will not (injuries? better prospect brought up? etc...). When you consider that each year, there are 9 new prospects added to a list and only 1 or 2 make it, you get the feeling that most of our hopes really are unrealistic.
But then again there always are teams like the Habs were in the mid 90s, teams that can,t draft right, and that trade their few good players... or don,t develop them right

Meaning that some teams won't use rookies , while other teams bring in a ton of them (usually lower ranked teams).... That's how averages work

That said, the Habs COULD recall 4 rookies while Detroit use none, giving an average of 2...

It all depends on the drafting and financial situation of your team

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11-05-2004, 02:50 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterD
But then again there always are teams like the Habs were in the mid 90s, teams that can,t draft right, and that trade their few good players... or don,t develop them right

Meaning that some teams won't use rookies , while other teams bring in a ton of them (usually lower ranked teams).... That's how averages work

That said, the Habs COULD recall 4 rookies while Detroit use none, giving an average of 2...

It all depends on the drafting and financial situation of your team
Nothing to argue about here.. that was the whole point I was more or less making. It's an average of what most teams bring out in a year. All I really wanted to say is that most prospects really won't make it long term. Most of us are optimistic, some are probably overly optimistic about prospects which lead to unrealistic expectations but in the end, you can possibly count on roughly 2 draft picks per year making it to the NHL. The problem is figuring which 2 and to which extent they will help their team. And as you pointed out, it's just an average.. but in the end, it gives you a more realistic view of how likely each prospect might make.

If anything, maybe knowing this will help some of our fans to lower their expectations a notch. Nothing wrong with liking a prospect but we should learn not to think of them of the "second coming of so and so..".

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11-05-2004, 02:57 PM
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Thinel , Archer , Hossa IMO.Thinel doen't have size at all.IMO He won't play in the NHL because of that.I saw the game vs the Moose , Thinel wasn't able to bodychekc someone or use his speed to pass the big D's in the AHL.He's doing well right now though.IMO Archer won't play in the NHL because of his lacks of offensive skills.He's physical but We have too much defensive defenceman IMO.He can fight sometimes though.Hossa has still the confidence problem.To solve this problem , He needs to play more often in the first two lines.He needs to adpt badly.

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11-05-2004, 03:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thegreatone
Thinel , Archer , Hossa IMO.Thinel doen't have size at all.IMO He won't play in the NHL because of that.I saw the game vs the Moose , Thinel wasn't able to bodychekc someone or use his speed to pass the big D's in the AHL.He's doing well right now though.IMO Archer won't play in the NHL because of his lacks of offensive skills.He's physical but We have too much defensive defenceman IMO.He can fight sometimes though.Hossa has still the confidence problem.To solve this problem , He needs to play more often in the first two lines.He needs to adpt badly.
Thinel need to have a a best physical and IMO he can make the NHL in the 4th line .

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11-05-2004, 03:14 PM
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It's so strange what happen to prospects year after year, decade after decade. I won't make any projection but I'll give an example of the type of thing that could happen :

We all like Higgins chances, and we like Lambert's in a lesser way, to say the least. That being said, it could turn out that Higgins continue to skate and work hard while never producing in the NHL, and then die on a fourth line on a rebuilding team 'till a better prospect take his place. On the other hand, just because of his hard shot, Lambert could end playing on a second offensive line with teamates who are fitting with his style...

...everything could happen...

That being said, it's just an example. If I absolutly have to put money on it, I would bet on Higgins like everybody else...

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11-05-2004, 04:27 PM
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Urquhart, 40th overall in a deep draft, that bothers me.

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11-05-2004, 04:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugazi
Urquhart, 40th overall in a deep draft, that bothers me.
I agree

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11-05-2004, 09:33 PM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Madevilz
I agree
Urquhart won't make it - not a good second pick in a deep draft

Those that will: Higgins, Chipchura, Lapierre, Danis, Ferland

Maybe: Hossa, Hainsey, Perezhogin, Kostitsyn, Lambert, Halak, O'Byrne. Bonneau, Cote

Won't make it: Plekanec, Locke, Milroy, Urquhart, Flood, Archer, Shasby, Yemelin, Korneev, Stewart (s), Dulac-Lemelin,Thinel

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11-06-2004, 07:03 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabpas
Urquhart won't make it - not a good second pick in a deep draft

Those that will: Higgins, Chipchura, Lapierre, Danis, Ferland

Maybe: Hossa, Hainsey, Perezhogin, Kostitsyn, Lambert, Halak, O'Byrne. Bonneau, Cote

Won't make it: Plekanec, Locke, Milroy, Urquhart, Flood, Archer, Shasby, Yemelin, Korneev, Stewart (s), Dulac-Lemelin,Thinel
IMO Plekanec can make it

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11-06-2004, 01:31 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherdow_the_king
IMO Plekanec can make it
Agree , IMO He will soon play in the third or fourth line.When Bonk will move , I think PLekanec can take his place.

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11-06-2004, 02:05 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thegreatone
Agree , IMO He will soon play in the third or fourth line.When Bonk will move , I think PLekanec can take his place.
This is in many year Bonk is not ready to quit the team

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11-06-2004, 02:10 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherdow_the_king
This is in many year Bonk is not ready to quit the team
In about 3 years ...

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11-06-2004, 02:11 PM
  #24
Alexander Ovechkin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thegreatone
In about 3 years ...
Probably

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11-06-2004, 07:59 PM
  #25
gabpas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherdow_the_king
IMO Plekanec can make it
I meant not making it in Montreal. Perhaps elsewhere - another case like Balej too many small forwards.

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