-Only one major hole to fill on the 2012-13 edition of the Oilers is the lack of a premier top-pairing defenceman... if Steve Tambellini elects to take a pessimistic (realistic? ) view on Petry, and moreso Whitney. At this point, I don't think it's possible to write Whitney's name in pen. You need to plan around not having him available, which just isn't good enough for a top-two NHL defenseman.
So what does a big-name PMD cost? Or rather, how much can Edmonton afford? We'll get to that.
-Obviously, 2013 is a major moment in this franchise's history, with three important young RFAs- all of whom could command major money. Call it pessimistic budgeting, but I believe it makes sense to include their numbers now. Yes, maybe a $2M hike in the cap and a shiny exclusion clause in the new CBA and Khabi's expiring contract along with the end of Souray's buy-out hit will more than cover it, but I wanted to run the numbers in a worst-case scenario. If we ear-mark $5M for Hall (maybe more), $6M for Eberle (out-performing Toews, a potential comp) and $3M for Paajarvi (maybe more), that's -$8.6M
-Of course, we must also consider this season's RFAs. Sam is due a raise. The difference-maker will be Edmonton's choice of comparable; Logan Couture is from the same draft class and both out-goaled and out-pointed him last year to a large degree. Of course, Couture gave up salary in a two-year deal, but can Gagner's agent really argue he's worth more $3M? The one that has potential to hurt, however, is Petry. He's shown the signs of turning a corner as an NHL player. Could he demand $2M? 2.5? More? We'll slot him down for $2.25M and Gagner for $2.75. -$5M
-One more RFA that bears discussing: Devan Dubnyk. He's a soon-to-be 26-year-old who has been groomed to be an NHL starter. The question is, a starter on a perennial 20-30th place team, or a guy who can you games? We've seen both sides of Dubnyk. At this point, I feel a two-year deal is probably best for both parties; the Oilers don't know if he's a solution, and Dubnyk's camp doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume to point to as a bargaining chip. The nice thing is that Jimmy Howard provides a sort of cap; 25 when he signed his latest deal, he took home $2.25M in a season where was among the league's best statistically. We'll write down -$1.8M.
-#94 is the only UFA worth haggling over at the bargaining table. Does he want a retirement contract, or year-to-years based on performance? Either way, he's looking at significantly less and probably closer to a third of his 2011-12 take-home. Let's slot him down for -$2M
We can haggle over exact figures all day and still not even come close to the real number, but can we all agree we're within the ballpark on the composite figure of -$17.4M? Maybe it's $600K under, maybe it's $400K over. But something like that falls in line with recent contracts from around the league.
If Tambellini and Co. wish to stick within a pessimistic budget, they're looking at roughly $4.3M to play with this summer.
Questions
-Is it right to budget for Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi now? RNH must also enter that conversation, and of course the Oilers will take a hit if the player drafted in June dresses in October. Spending to the dollar (well, along with a dropped Post-It note) is the issue that led the Hawks down the dark road of de-constructing depth they'd spent years building. They didn't need Campbell or Huet to win the Cup. That money could have been allocated earlier and, more importantly, better.
-$4.3M is a long way from the $21M we keep bandying about. It probably precludes you from playing in the Carle or Wideman sweepstakes. But again, is that perhaps a blessing in disguise? Does it make more sense to sign/trade for an older player who is maybe on the long end of their career with a contract that expires in '13 or '14? (Tomas Kaberle, I'm looking at you)
Last edited by hfboardsuser: 02-27-2012 at 06:33 PM.
capgeek has crashed--but my first impression is the one I have been talking about for awhile when people talk about cap space and the oilers. We do not have as much as some people may think and we need to watch out for over spending on a player from the outside and if we dio get a top 3 pick this draft that is another player who could be looking at payout in a few short years.
For me the oilers need to be carefull where they spend their money.
Gagner is a RFA and it should be interesting to see what the oilers offer him--I think that if the Oilers end up grabbing a top center in the draft--I think he will be traded, if they grab a d-man they might keep him
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Funny me and my friend were just going through the numbers.
The numbers are bleak. Very bleak.
Just resigning our current rookies and giving out raises leaves us zero cap space for 2014-2015.
Most likely looking at a whooping 45 mill spent on forwards. A measley 15 mill on defense. And a shakey 4-5 mill for the goaltending. For the start of the 2014-2015. We technicaly can not even afford the roster we are currently running.
Signing Hall, RNH, and Eberel in all reality will cost us 20 mill. I hope much less but I think it unlikely that any of those three will make less than 5.5.
I hope we get lucky with some very efficent contracts from the kids. I hope the salary cap goes up (it isnt suposed to). I hope some of our prospects develope into second liners by then. Also a new rule is being pushed for in the future bargaining agreement that could help us get rid of Horcoff. If all that happens we will actualy be able to afford that true tier one super defenseman we are lacking and maybe even a true top ten goaltender we are missing as well.
Otherwise.... Only two options remain. Continue on as is. Or trade away some of our top 6 salary heavy forwards to bring in defensive help and goaltending.
Good overall analysis, but MPS has proven nothing to demand $3M. And I definitely don't want DD at $2.25M when there are far cheaper/better options. I see these numbers as much too high.
And half a good season for Petry is worth $2.25?
I could see 1.5-1-1.5 for all 3. Saving roughly 3.5M. When is the last time the Oilers invested $1M+ in a backup?
(And I personally think Eberle/Hall will sign identical contracts, but close to your overall number. I'd bet 5.5M/each).
Still not as much room as I'd like. But I think they could get a Suter in there and still finesse room.
The year where cap is truly relevant is 2013/2014.
Horcoff, Schultz, Nugent-Hopkins, Belanger, Eager and Hemsky are the only Oilers signed. They combine for a $21.4M cap hit. Belanger, Eager, Hemsky and Schultz are in the last year of their deals.
First thing you need to do address is Horcoff. His NMC expires and his salary takes a nose-dive, so you got to attempt to move him to a cap floor team who could use the hit to get over. GM's tend to like players like Horcoff, so maybe you'll get some bites. Let's assume that fails though, and you have to buy him out. His buyout fee for 2013/2014 would be 2.66M.
Let's guesstimate that Eberle and Hall wind up getting $6M long term contracts. Let's suggest $3.5M for Gagner, Smid and Whitney - just to fill it out. Petry at $2M. Paajarvi and Jones at $1.5M.
That winds up being about $42M for 13 players and one buyout: 5 top-six forwards, 2 top-4 defenseman, zero Goaltenders.
I think, even liberally worked, they can take one large contract from free agency and or trade and work it without hitting the ceiling. Especially since you have to expect there will be ELC's on this team, perhaps in the place of an Eager or one of those defenseman slots.
The year where cap is truly relevant is 2013/2014.
Horcoff, Schultz, Nugent-Hopkins, Belanger, Eager and Hemsky are the only Oilers signed. They combine for a $21.4M cap hit. Belanger, Eager, Hemsky and Schultz are in the last year of their deals.
First thing you need to do address is Horcoff. His NMC expires and his salary takes a nose-dive, so you got to attempt to move him to a cap floor team who could use the hit to get over. GM's tend to like players like Horcoff, so maybe you'll get some bites. Let's assume that fails though, and you have to buy him out. His buyout fee for 2013/2014 would be 2.66M.
Let's guesstimate that Eberle and Hall wind up getting $6M long term contracts. Let's suggest $3.5M for Gagner, Smid and Whitney - just to fill it out. Petry at $2M. Paajarvi and Jones at $1.5M.
That winds up being about $42M for 13 players and one buyout: 5 top-six forwards, 2 top-4 defenseman, zero Goaltenders.
I think, even liberally worked, they can take one large contract from free agency and or trade and work it without hitting the ceiling. Especially since you have to expect there will be ELC's on this team, perhaps in the place of an Eager or one of those defenseman slots.
You have Whitney at 3.5M but he's not in your lineup. Assuming he's injured?
To add a little bit to the discussion, I always believe in over estimating the costs of our players, I think that is the safer way to do it.
Another thought, I cannot see Eberle and Hall getting different deals. I see them getting exact same dollar, exact same term. (Kane/Toews, Malkin/Crosby) I see something around 6.5 for 6 years or something close to that. Maybe a little bit less for shorter term but I honestly can't see less than 6 per to 2 of our best players, especially with both being the heart and soul of this team, both who will more than likely wear letters.
I mean I guess it's possible if they decide to take a bit of a pay cut so Edmonton can fill out the roster with more quality if they feel that way but I can't see it. They deserve the salary they get paid, even if it is a little bit high. They are this team.
Sure, not today. But when Van Riemsdyk can net $4.25MM for 21 goals and 40 points at age 21, why couldn't Paajarvi ask for $3M should he hit the 20-goal mark?
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I definitely don't want DD at $2.25M when there are far cheaper/better options.
I gave him $1.8MM Still too high? I don't know about that.
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And half a good season for Petry is worth $2.25?
It's what Smid took home off a two-year extension that ended last year. I think it's certainly within the ballpark. He's a) an RD b) very young by defenceman standards. His camp will have a lot to work with.
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Still not as much room as I'd like. But I think they could get a Suter in there and still finesse room.
At $6M or more? I fear he'll be the Brian Campbell of the FA class... should he make it there.
So according to cap geek we have $42.5 M committed to next years roster with Petry, Petrell, Gagner, Dubnyk and Smyth to sign.
If we sign those guys at the following rates:
Gagner - $3.5M/yr for like 2-3 years
Smyth - $3M/yr for 1 year
Petrell - $1.2M/yr for 2 years.
Petry - $2M/yr for 2-3 years.
Dubnyk - $1.5M/yr for 2 years.
It adds $11.2M/yr to our cap.
We're at $53.7M committed.
Before we look at how much we can play with, looking forward the season after we have Hall, Eberle, Whitney, Smid and MPS to sign.
Coming off the books will be Jones' 1.5, Khabibulin's 3.75 and Souray's 1.5 buy out.
If we assume Hall scores 30 this year and 35 next year. And we assume we want to sign him to a long term deal, then adding say $3M to his salary for a $5.75 M/yr salary on a long term deal isn't bad.
Same with Eberle, lets assume he scores a PPG the next two seasons. Adding around $5.5 M/yr to his salary puts us at $6.5M/yr cap hit for him.
Assuming Smid continues to play tough minutes and plays them well for the next season, then add ~$1.5M to his salary for a $3.75M/yr salary.
MPS is weird. I don't think he'll score alot, but if he puts up decent numbers, he'll ask for a bit. I say add $1M to his current salary to get a $2.5M/yr cap hit.
Whitney is going to be a strange case. Either he raises his play to a level where he signs something similar, or he takes a pay cut. With his injury woes, I think he'll eventually sign a $3.5M/yr type deal.
So after looking ahead we're adding: 5.5 + 3 + 1.5 + 1 - 0.5 = $11.5.
Now from Khabby, Jones and Souray's buyout we get $6.75. So essentially from this year we need to keep $4.75M clear.
So with a $64M cap, if we take out $53.7M, we have $10.3M to play with to fill one hole.
If we take out say $6M (for a buffer), we're at $4.3M
So essentially this year, we have $4.3M/yr to play with to sign a RHD D-man of quality.
__________________ <-- Credit goes to The Nemesis.
Sure, not today. But when Van Riemsdyk can net $4.25MM for 21 goals and 40 points at age 21, why couldn't Paajarvi ask for $3M should he hit the 20-goal mark?
I gave him $1.8MM Still too high? I don't know about that.
It's what Smid took home off a two-year extension that ended last year. I think it's certainly within the ballpark. He's a) an RD b) very young by defenceman standards. His camp will have a lot to work with.
At $6M or more? I fear he'll be the Brian Campbell of the FA class... should he make it there.
JVR has also become trade bait with that contract. Josh Bailey (9th overall in 2008) with 271GP got a cap hit of $1.050. He also had a 35pt season and has come down since. I just can't see Tambo giving more than 1.5M. A lot depends on next year.
DD getting 1.8M? I would still get out. I just don't see him as the long term solution. And the Oil have never given any big $ to an uproven goalie. I see another year at $1M to see how he does with an increased load next year.
Smid had over 200 NHL GP for that contract. I guess it depends on term. Maybe 4 years at that price, but I would think they will try a 1-2 year deal at a lower rate.
I think if the Oil have a Suter ready to sign on the bottom line they will somehow make it work. Also, they will likely have a high $ rookie to add in too.
Then again, I think your Gagner number is low... so it probably isn't too far off. Even if we get an UFA D at 6M that gives us zero room.
I blame Horcoff. No way he is here until the end of that contract.
~$4M... without considering the cap rises at all. Almost guaranteed it'll rise $2-3M.
Agreed but also it left me wondering how long Whitney is for this team.
The coaching staff (rightfully or wrongfully) are convinced Smid-Petry will be taking tough minutes.
And Shultz will probably be taking 2nd pairing minutes. The question becomes, even if we add Whitney to the mix (ie shift Shultz over to RD) is that a top-4 which contends for the playoffs?
I'd argue no. If that's a case, based on pure cap restrictions, since we need to add another top-4 guy, then Whitney may not be long for this team.
~$4M... without considering the cap rises at all. Almost guaranteed it'll rise $2-3M.
In July I expect the cap to be near $69M. There will be the normal growth plus a big increase in the US TV money and the difference between revenues in Atlanta vs Winnipeg.
Of course the new CBA will really tell us where we are. But even if the new CBA sees a lower cap the Oilers have way more flexibility than most team.
I don't know why, but I imagine a Horcoff buyout this summer. It seems like the right time to do it.
no, you have to wait at least one more year. cap space is worthless next year, and if you bought him out, it would be taking up cap space for 6 more years (3 years past expiration).
IMO you buyout the last year for sure, and if you really need the cap space in the present you buyout the last 2 years. but 3 serves no purpose, and leeches cap space far to into the future.
Agreed but also it left me wondering how long Whitney is for this team.
The coaching staff (rightfully or wrongfully) are convinced Smid-Petry will be taking tough minutes.
And Shultz will probably be taking 2nd pairing minutes. The question becomes, even if we add Whitney to the mix (ie shift Shultz over to RD) is that a top-4 which contends for the playoffs?
I'd argue no. If that's a case, based on pure cap restrictions, since we need to add another top-4 guy, then Whitney may not be long for this team.
yeah i'd say you try to sign someone big this year, and let whitney walk next year. we can carry the excessive salary on the backend for next year.
no, you have to wait at least one more year. cap space is worthless next year, and if you bought him out, it would be taking up cap space for 6 more years (3 years past expiration).
IMO you buyout the last year for sure, and if you really need the cap space in the present you buyout the last 2 years. but 3 serves no purpose, and leeches cap space far to into the future.
Buying out Horcoff saves very little cap space after you replace him. It also gives you dead cap sapce in years you may need all you can get. If you want cap relief you will have to trade him or send him to the minors if the rules remain as they are.
) view on Petry, and moreso Whitney. At this point, I don't think it's possible to write Whitney's name in pen. You need to plan around not having him available, which just isn't good enough for a top-two NHL defenseman. 
<-- Credit goes to The Nemesis.
