Detroit's core is getting older and another early exit would certainly give credence to talk that Detroit is trending south. To say otherwise is foolish. It happens in sports...teams get older, teams decline. This team is heading toward another transition with no superstar prospects to take the mantle. Holland is a great GmM, but this will be his greatest challenge.
Holland has lost his fire.
A guy who once spent way to liberally is now too conservative.
He failed to realize that the window on our current Red Wings team was closing and also failed to put his faith in his scouting department.
The Red Wings organization may not have the next Datsyuk or Zetterberg in it, but it has never been this deep since I've been a fan.
The problem is too many people are still trapped in the mindset from when the Wings had an 80 million dollar payroll and 1st round matchups in the west were often virtual byes. If the Wings lose in the 1st round that's obviously disappointing but it doesn't really say all that much other than the fact that they presumably lost to another very good hockey team (if we are talking about a 6/7 game series, obviously getting swept is inexcusable in that context).
If it was, we wouldn't have to spend all this time watching these games. Just run the simulator and call the season.
Speaking of which, why are you so eager to call the playoffs over before they start? At least give them a fighting chance to surprise you.
Ive watched hockey for 20 years. Surprising is Giguere 2003. Minnesota Wild 2003. Robert Lang contending for the Art Ross while being traded. 7th round picks turning into arguably the best player in the world. Or the 2009-10 Wings having to go on a HUGE run to even make the playoffs (and end up finishing 5th).
Surprising is not the Red Wings doing well in the regular season and failing in the playoffs. Or to be more fair, having the Wings regular season success not translate into playoff success.
If the Wings are truly the 2nd best team in the West (doubtful, imo) then its the WCFs or failure.
I see scenarios of them not even making the 2nd round. I dont have them coming out of the 2nd round, for sure.
Its a prediction with no emotion. The Wings, as currently constructed, are fraudulent to me. Too heavily reliant on one player to score. Play great team defense overall but they are guaranteed to blow an assignment 3x per game where Howard must bail them out (which is his job). The entire team lacks speed outside a few, small skaters. The 4th line is an abortion, but that isnt all that important if you think about it.
Too many teams they have potential matchups against are counter-punchers. St Louis, Nashville and Phoenix spring to mind. Detroit likes to be the team that dictates play, that has the puck all the time and deems where things will and will not happen. And its a beautiful system to watch when it works. But it is also mistake prone and it doesnt take much for a team waiting for that mistake to bury their chances.
Want to beat the Wings? Trap. Clog the neutral zone. Simple, really. They have one line capable of dumping and chasing, truth be told, even they arent good at it. Use the size advantage along the boards, keep a forward low between the circles to cover the puck possibly coming out of the corner, quick transition out of your own zone, use your speed to beat one or two of the Wings into their own zone and keep the puck behind the net and in the corners.
Over 7 games, youre going to win. It wont be pretty and no one is going to frame the footage for the HoF, but you'll beat the undersized, over-skilled, slow and aging Wings through attrition. You only need 2 goals per game and trap, trap, trap. Wings have a very hard time dealing with the trap because so much of their offensive game is centered around catching the defense on their heels deceptively through the neutral zone.
Datsyuk is the only game-breaker. No one else in the forward corp requires special attention. One dangerous forward, everyone else and every other line can be played straight up. Datsyuk is good enough to win the team a couple games (see SJ last year), but overall, thats the chance you have to take to beat the Wings. Shut everyone else down and hope to contain Datsyuk enough to beat them.
I also predict Franzen will be a bum this playoffs and I am quite sure it will be blamed on injury for his fans and we will all have to continue to hear people defend Franzen based on his beast playoff mode, which will have been nonexistent for two years in a row by this time.
The Loyalists will gather around the Camp Holland and defend the roster to the death as impervious to criticism. Bad breaks, injuries or the always and often used excuse of biased officiating. SJ, StLouis or Vancouver will not have beaten the Wings because they are clearly better, the Wings will have beaten themselves.
Surprising is not the term I would use to describe the situation. Predictable would be my choice.
I just thought of probably the most important aspect of the Wings not contending this year that always separated them from the pack of contenders, but I dont want to edit the above post if someone quoted it.
The power play. Its average, not elite like it has to be to win for a team like the Wings. Boston got by last year with a terrible PP because their 2nd and 3rd lines were damn near interchangeable as far as offensive threats were concerned.
That isnt the case for the Wings. Datsyuk's line is scoring or the Wings arent winning. With a toothless PP, it only adds to the problem of zero depth scoring.
Again, I am speaking from a playoff perspective, not the regular season. I doubt, highly, that Gator-Helm-Miller is an offensive threat in the playoffs. Extreme doubt.
The problem is too many people are still trapped in the mindset from when the Wings had an 80 million dollar payroll and 1st round matchups in the west were often virtual byes. If the Wings lose in the 1st round that's obviously disappointing but it doesn't really say all that much other than the fact that they presumably lost to another very good hockey team (if we are talking about a 6/7 game series, obviously getting swept is inexcusable in that context).
The problem is the team peaked in 08 and is on the way down.
That's why Babcock changed his assistants....
This is a natural cycle. Somehow, if you want to hit the peak again, you have to disrupt the cycle.
Kyle Quincey doesn't do that.
When we've won in the past, it came with significant change.
In 2001, this was a team in need of a disruption. Out goes Kozlov, LaPointe, Gilchrist, Gill, Verbeek, Brown,
In comes Hull, Robitaille, Hasek, Datsyuk, Ulausson, Devereaux.
2007- a good team that just wasn't getting over the hump.
Out goes Lang, Schneider, Markov, Williams,
in comes Stuart, Rafalski, Helm, Drake, McCarty
This year;
Out goes Rafalski, Salei, Modano, Osgood
In comes: White, Quincey, Emmerton, Commodore, Conklin, Mursak
In each of the previous changes the disruption was an obvious improvement
This year ... That's a tough argument to male
With all the cap room and assets at Holland's fingertips, that's not a good thing.
Assuming that Holland was ready and willing to shop Filppula for the right price, but the right price didn't come along, wouldn't it be a really, REALLY good idea for him to stay quiet and let everyone assume he was never going to shop Filppula?
Of course there is a small chance that's what happened but why should we engage in mental gymnastics to find out what he may have done in secret unknown to everyone rather than go by a) his track record and b) what has been said the last week or two.
If I start speculating on what he may have done in secret I could also start to say, well maybe he tried to trade Datsyuk for Olli Jokinen in 2006? Who knows?
You are falling into the trap of focusing too much on our weaknesses and too much on other teams strengths.
Take St. Louis, for example. You cite size and physicality as a reason the Wings can't beat them in the playoffs. However you completely ignore the fact that the Blues have been rather inept at actually scoring all season. That's a team who's best offensive player would be 5th in scoring on the Wings. Their top goal scorer has less goals than the oft-maligned Jiri Hudler. The Wings are scoring on average half a goal per game more than the Blues. For as bad as the Wings PP has been, it's been significantly better than the Blues. And for all the defensive acumen the Blues have, their PK success is virtually identical with the Wings. One of the major factors in the playoffs is undeniably special teams play and the Wings seemingly have a clear edge in that category. I don't see St. Louis as a team that Detroit can't beat in a 7 game series. I see them as a tough, grinding team that has to play nearly mistake-free hockey and try to win 1-0 or 2-1 since they will struggle most games to score 3+ goals. More than any other team the Blues need to play with a lead to be successful. If the Wings can play from ahead it forces the Blues out of their game and into a playstyle they are simply ill-equipped to handle. These are the types of series where whichever teams PP can get it some goals will probably win, and I'd put my money on the Wings PP over the Blues.
But that's just one team. You can easily analyze all the others you mentioned and point out their flaws that Detroit can exploit just like you pointed out the others. The fact is teams are so close now that there really is no such thing as a clear favorite in any series anymore. St. Louis beating Detroit wouldn't really be an upset. Detroit beating Vancouver isn't an upset. Heck, if you just look at actual wins and not ones including the shootout then you see that 6 of the 8 playoff teams in the West right now have between 29 and 35 wins. That's not really much of a gap. Heck, the team with the fewest wins in the West amongst the playoff teams is actually San Jose's 26. Yep, that's fewer than Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago, tied with Colorado, and only 1 more than Calgary. And the Sharks are supposed to be a major Cup threat right? The Wings have 1 more win than the Canucks, a team you point to as the clear favorite in the West, despite playing in what is undeniably the most difficult and competitive division in the entire NHL. Every team is just that close right now and every potential matchup can be spun as either team having a clear edge depending on what you want to focus on.
Of course there is a small chance that's what happened but why should we engage in mental gymnastics to find out what he may have done in secret unknown to everyone rather than go by a) his track record and b) what has been said the last week or two.
If I start speculating on what he may have done in secret I could also start to say, well maybe he tried to trade Datsyuk for Olli Jokinen in 2006? Who knows?
I believe my point was NOT to make assumptions.
You speculated that Holland went into the deadline with an empty wallet. What you're telling me is pointless to do is exactly what you're doing.
As much as possible, forget the other teams. Who cares what SJ and Vancouver and Chicago do.
Focus on this team, on this roster and on this team's outlook.
Did Holland get the most out of his resources this year?
The answer is no.
You speculated that Holland went into the deadline with an empty wallet. What you're telling me is pointless to do is exactly what you're doing.
There's nothing wrong with educated assumptions, this entire message board is based on more or less educated assumptions. The entire social sciences would be dead if not for those.
Quote:
Originally Posted by George Malik
And, given that the Wings are willing to part with nothing more than mid-round picks and middling prospects, I wonder whether Holland, Nill and Martin are going to be able to do anything other than say that they tried the best they could to add someone by the end of today.
When you have sentences like that from reporters covering the team and dozens of quotes about looking for a depth forward only and them being linked pretty much exclusively to the likes of Gaustad, you can say that this is pretty much accepted wisdom at this point.
There's nothing wrong with educated assumptions, this entire message board is based on more or less educated assumptions. The entire social sciences would be dead if not for those.
When you have sentences like that from reporters covering the team and dozens of quotes about looking for a depth forward only and them being linked pretty much exclusively to the likes of Gaustad, you can say that this is pretty much accepted wisdom at this point.
Malik isn't a reporter. He's an internet poster with a platform.
There's nothing wrong with educated assumptions, this entire message board is based on more or less educated assumptions.
Agreed.
Unless you believe your assumption is the only possible right answer. Which I'm not saying you're doing, but that happens a lot on sport forums... and other forums... and life.
Malik isn't a reporter. He's an internet poster with a platform.
Bloggers are part of the media now, the connection with MLive gives him some gravity as well. Besides, it's not like there was any Wings beat writer saying anything to the contrary.
Helen St.James wrote this a week or two ago:
Quote:
At this point, the Wings are seeking veterans, not a guy like Columbus' Rick Nash, who would cost at least Valtteri Filppula, top defensive prospect Brendan Smith and a first-rounder.
"There's always big names bandied about," Holland said, "but ultimately it's about veteran depth. You want someone who's been in the league, someone to give you more depth.
"Realistically, there might be 20-25 trades leading up to the deadline, and most of them are going to be secondary players. If you're going anywhere in the playoffs, the nucleus needs to carry you. You're not going to make a trade now that's going to change the whole fortune of your team. You bring somebody in to complement."
detroits problem is that our best players are much older as a group then vancouvers, san joses, nashville's, st louis, boston, philly, nyr, pittsburghs and by quite a bit.
its this discrepency in age that over the course of 4 rounds of playoff hockey that detroit will lose because we have failed to adequately address this issue
if datsyuk goes down in game 1 of round 1 with 0% chance of coming back we are in deep trouble, the same is not true if henrik sedin goes down or joe thronton or sidney crosby or david backes or claude giroux or marian gaborik beacuse they simply have more high end depth then we do and all much younger.
for the last 16 months we needed to get younger and better in our top 3 dman and top 4 forwards and to this date, we havent yet.
when detroit won in 97,98,02, 08 we had a solid mix of youth plus experience and always coupled with talent in those important position sets which is something we have lacked the past 2.5 years.
Bloggers are part of the media now, the connection with MLive gives him some gravity as well. Besides, it's not like there was any Wings beat writer saying anything to the contrary.
Dude, i wrote about the Wings on Mlive and founded the Snapshots blog. I assure you that I did not have any inside knowledge and that nobody should have taken what I wrote with any more gravity then is contained in the words of my posts.
Now Malik has met the Wings brass. But still, he doesn't have access. He's guessing just like all of us, based on what they've seen from the Wings and the words in the media from those who have ACCESS (beat reporters, hockey journalists).
Hockey bloggers on influential sites help shape opinions, for sure.
But people right here on this site, like yourself, Fugu, Bench, Heaton, Jaster, etc, also shape opinions to some degree.
In the end, bloggers are far more akin to Internet posters than they are to journalists.
Sorry I should've been more clear. I meant on deadline day as far as trades go.
I would suggest identifying who you want to add to your team and go make a deal for that player way before the deadline.
Look, the "there are too many buyers, not enough sellers, the price was too steep" line is getting really old. It has been this way since the lockout. It's been this way for both July 1st free agency AND deadline days. So, go get the player you want before there are 5 other teams lining up and trying to outbid you. You may pay a little more than you'd like to going for a guy early, but chances are the price will be lower than waiting for the deadline.
Going forward, whether Lidstrom retires this year or not, doesn't really matter in the sense that he WILL be retiring within the next couple of seasons. If the Wings have identified Suter as their preferred replacement then they had better make a play on him before Free Agency. If Suter is not the guy they're targeting, then they better make a play on who they are targeting before everyone else is lining up at the checkout counter.
My bottom line is that if Wings management has a plan as to how they are going to replace Lidstrom and their other key pieces down the road, and those plans include getting guys from outside the organization, then I'd like to know that they understand the old way of waiting for July 1st or Deadline Day is not an option anymore. That they are going to have to give up something of value to get something back. They can't just buy their way out of major jams anymore. That works for minor plugs, not major holes. Identify who you want and go trade for them. Make an old time hockey trade.
If Lidstrom retires and Stuart leaves... Holland and Red Wings fans will regret his decision not to be more aggressive this year.
Yeah, we should of traded a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round picks for Hal Gill and Pavel Kubina. Oh and traded top end prospects for bottom 6 UFA's. Woooooo!
Its a prediction with no emotion. The Wings, as currently constructed, are fraudulent to me. Too heavily reliant on one player to score. Play great team defense overall but they are guaranteed to blow an assignment 3x per game where Howard must bail them out (which is his job). The entire team lacks speed outside a few, small skaters. The 4th line is an abortion, but that isnt all that important if you think about it.
Too many teams they have potential matchups against are counter-punchers. St Louis, Nashville and Phoenix spring to mind. Detroit likes to be the team that dictates play, that has the puck all the time and deems where things will and will not happen. And its a beautiful system to watch when it works. But it is also mistake prone and it doesnt take much for a team waiting for that mistake to bury their chances.
Want to beat the Wings? Trap. Clog the neutral zone. Simple, really. They have one line capable of dumping and chasing, truth be told, even they arent good at it. Use the size advantage along the boards, keep a forward low between the circles to cover the puck possibly coming out of the corner, quick transition out of your own zone, use your speed to beat one or two of the Wings into their own zone and keep the puck behind the net and in the corners.
Over 7 games, youre going to win. It wont be pretty and no one is going to frame the footage for the HoF, but you'll beat the undersized, over-skilled, slow and aging Wings through attrition. You only need 2 goals per game and trap, trap, trap. Wings have a very hard time dealing with the trap because so much of their offensive game is centered around catching the defense on their heels deceptively through the neutral zone.
Datsyuk is the only game-breaker. No one else in the forward corp requires special attention. One dangerous forward, everyone else and every other line can be played straight up. Datsyuk is good enough to win the team a couple games (see SJ last year), but overall, thats the chance you have to take to beat the Wings. Shut everyone else down and hope to contain Datsyuk enough to beat them.
I also predict Franzen will be a bum this playoffs and I am quite sure it will be blamed on injury for his fans and we will all have to continue to hear people defend Franzen based on his beast playoff mode, which will have been nonexistent for two years in a row by this time.
The Loyalists will gather around the Camp Holland and defend the roster to the death as impervious to criticism. Bad breaks, injuries or the always and often used excuse of biased officiating. SJ, StLouis or Vancouver will not have beaten the Wings because they are clearly better, the Wings will have beaten themselves.
Surprising is not the term I would use to describe the situation. Predictable would be my choice.
Citing my 20 years of watching hockey was in no way meant to discredit your thoughts or opinions, it was a setup to a lengthy post.
I know
I'm couldn't resist. Your post was well constructed, but I disagree with your conclusions that assume the Wings are doomed this season. My 20 years of watching hockey, and filling out playoff pools, has lead me to believe I don't know squat about squat when it comes to predictions.
And I'm riding high, because I won my playoff pool last year when I picked the Bruins at the start
Here's a weird idea, what would I have done differently? Since everyone believes Holland works his magic on players and gets guys to sign for less than market value, why not trade a draft pick or someone to get the RIGHTS to negotiate with a top tier UFA before July 1st? That way we won't have to hear about how expensive it'll be to sign players when they can be had for free ( no roster players). Other than that, suck it up and pay up a little more to get the guys you feel you need. And his argument about a trade off between skill and size is absolute ********.....tell me Holmstrom and Bertuzzi have Datsyukian skill, is he trying to tell the fan base that there is no room for a guy with some size and brawn on this team? A Gaustad type? Sounds like a cop out.
Citing my 20 years of watching hockey was in no way meant to discredit your thoughts or opinions, it was a setup to a lengthy post.
