Regardless of opinion, the video is actually interesting even though it is a bit long.
Just watched all of it, and it was very interesting. Though my fiance confirmed what I already knew when she came back into the living room and said "You're still watching that?! You're such a geek."
Just watched all of it, and it was very interesting. Though my fiance confirmed what I already knew when she came back into the living room and said "You're still watching that?! You're such a geek."
I like the Pens proudly admitting tanking on purpose is a strategy.
Interesting that there continues to be speculation about JVR
What would Flyers likely be looking for in offseason via trade for him?
Even though I don't think he should be, if he were traded, it would have to be either part of a package to get a #1 defenseman or for a young, up and coming defenseman with #1 potential.
Holmgren doesn't face a tough decision at all. He can keep JVR and see him finally grow into the scorer's role that was predicted of him. If Holmgren doesn't feel that JVR can accomplish that in Philadelphia, then he knows that there are a large number of teams willing to vie for JVR's services and he can actually start a bidding war for JVR and get a real nice bounty in return for him. Either way, it's not a real difficult decision at all.
Regardless of opinion, the video is actually interesting even though it is a bit long.
Sorry for trespassing as a Devils fan, but I think you're taking CORSI and Fenwick out of context. I dont think these stats are good on a team level, but rather on an individual player level. Corsi is easily the best stat to predict future performance and past performance. I am by no means a "math guy", but advanced hockey stats are years behind baseball sabremetrics.
JVR is a good player. He could very much turn into John Leclair but a trade still should be considered. The Flyers have currently 7 mil in salary next season, 12 if they LTIR Pronger, to sign 3 defensive positions and Jagr and Voracek. They also have 9 top 9 forwards(if you through in Talbot) currently signed for next year without Jagr or Voracek even on the books. Even without bringing back Jagr, a forward needs to go. JVR has a big cap hit and a lot of trade value. If they can pull off a Carter/Richards like deal where the Flyers move one asset for multiple good assets, trading JVR should definitely be considered. Or if you move him straight up for a young defensemen with potential, like Bogosian or OEL, they also should do it.
They already have too many decent but not great players, why would they trade JVR for quantity? They need to be the ones trading quantity for quality, not vice versa.
Sorry for trespassing as a Devils fan, but I think you're taking CORSI and Fenwick out of context. I dont think these stats are good on a team level, but rather on an individual player level. Corsi is easily the best stat to predict future performance and past performance. I am by no means a "math guy", but advanced hockey stats are years behind baseball sabremetrics.
As to the team stats, that was to refute the notion that corsi is a possession stat. If corsi is an individual performance stat, it has to have some value as team stat doesn't (that is just adding up individual all shots)?
As to the NHL being behind other sports, they may be behind, but teams keeping their own stats are WAY ahead of bloggers that use public data only. You can get this sense from watching the video.
Corsi is the number of all shots on net while a player is on the ice. You can adjust it all you want, but it it predicts anything, it will predict future shots+missed shots+blocked shots and usually only 5v5 on 5v5 tied or close is considered. I do not see how that equates to "performance". It says nothing about quality of shots and treats all equally.
What does it tell you about a player's ability to PK or PP? Take the full season of Matt Carle last year. Carle led all defensemen in even strength points at 38. Any statistical analysis that led to goal scoring success while he was on the ice at even strength (if corsi is a performance stat, it should be correlated to goals) would lead to suggest Carle as a good PP player. Carle played 2:18min per game (all 82) and had only 2 assists on the PP. Next, your response is going to be sample size. Ok, so one season is not enough. So what do you do with players just entering the league? If corsi for one season is not a large enough sample size and you want to judge if a player is developing at the rate you want, what do you do? Ok, so you break down into more situations to analyze. What that leads to and the only reason I think it is popular among bloggers, is to select stats that "prove" the bloggers point.
Further, as stated in the video, development league stats are not useful in predicting nhl stats, so corsi is not useful for scouting.
As far as I can tell, goals only provides too small a sample size to do the above analysis, so shots are added and the same problem exists, so then goals+saved shots+missed shots are used and goals+saved shots+missed shots+blocked shots are used to to perform stats analysis. That in and of itself is imperfect, but it is easily accessible data for amateurs on the internet. To improve from the imperfect base, the data is then re-broken down into a smaller sample size to try and get "more" out of it, 5v5, 5v5 close etc. which again increases the probability of a sample size problem. Then bloggers take selective stats that "prove" their point of view and put them in articles.
From the nhl perspective (from the video and detroit quoted article), they begin with their own proprietary data set to begin with and view public nhl stats as imperfect.
I have no issue with anyone basing an opinion in part on any stat. +/- is imperfect, but I still looked at Jack Johnson's relatively poor - in each and every season he was with the Kings as a reason for not wanting the Flyers to acquire him. Sure that it imperfect, but it is still a basis for some opinion on a fan website (right or wrong). My issue has always just been the TONE of the bloggers and articles in which they claim the results shown as proof that their opinion is correct.
Last edited by BillDineen: 03-04-2012 at 02:07 AM.
Sorry for trespassing as a Devils fan, but I think you're taking CORSI and Fenwick out of context. I dont think these stats are good on a team level, but rather on an individual player level. Corsi is easily the best stat to predict future performance and past performance. I am by no means a "math guy", but advanced hockey stats are years behind baseball sabremetrics.
No offense to you, because that statement probably comes from blogs you have read. But those are the kind of statements I take issue with. I have not seen any study of predicting future performance with Corsi. I would love to see one across teams. Ie. UFA signings or trades. (5v5 only is fine, although Corsi should predict something about special teams if it is a measure of performance).
I can look and see that Briere and Leino had similar numbers in Philly, does that mean Briere's production would fall off a cliff if he went back to Buffalo instead of Leino this season? I doubt it. Could it predict a player like Lupul or Versteeg playing better with Toronto and Florida?
At a lower level, even if corsi numbers tell you JVR against tougher competition (as defined by corsi) might generate more all shots for us and less all shots against us than Briere and the coach should play him more even strength minutes. That says nothing about the additional scoring chances generated. It treats all shots and missed shots and blocked shots the same and judges QoC in the same light.
Note that if a team valued possession like the Pens and Wings (in above article and video), they could just hire two undergrads to track possession daily (day after on video) as the NHL did in the 90s (by zone) and then perform all the same analysis, possession when a player is on the ice vs off, adjust for the quality of teammates and opponents (as defined by possession). At least then the analysis would be sound because the underlying statistic (possession) is sound vs Corsi (which treats all shots the same) which IMO is not sound as a basis.
Last edited by BillDineen: 03-04-2012 at 03:02 AM.
I really like Bill D I have never used the Corsi and Fenwick to analyse a players performance. He is saying what I have been feeling, but just putting it out there much much better then I could.
What is the year-to-year correlation for Corsi? If it has any value at all, it has to be measuring a player skill, which means it should be fairly highly correlated from year to year.
JvR needs to evolve his play without the puck as much as his play with the puck.
The optimal way to make that happen is playing him with Giroux. Either this season or/and next and beyond. The line with Giroux will have much puck possession, and much puck possession that's not JvR's. So he'll develop both. The best chance JvR has to become great is either taking a low possession grinding one-timing role with Giroux, but I think he's uncapable of that since what he showed with G and Jagr early in the season. Otherwise Voracek would be a good match. So it should be Giroux, JvR and a low possession grinder who shoots a lot of one-timers. Meaning either Hartnell, or Simmonds.
I think both Hartnell and Simmonds is needed on the top 2 scoring lines, since our top 3 scoring players Jagr, Giroux and Briere aren't that type of one-timing semi-grinding scorer that makes the pure grinder obsolete on their lines. However, the line that gets Hartnell will be much more functional than it would be with Simmonds, so the question is if a super-first line is more important or that both the 1st and 2nd are really good. Because the Giroux line will be good either way, the question if if it's more important that his line is great or the second line being more than good.
What makes me sad though, is that JvR, Read, Voracek, Couturier and Schenn only competes for one spot on the top6, and the latter 4 will be left out of the top6 with one of them will be left out of the top9 in this scenario.
I have never used the Corsi and Fenwick to analyse a players performance. He is saying what I have been feeling, but just putting it out there much much better then I could.
