I hope people have been watching EJ the last few months, because he's figured out what he needs to do to become a top flight defenseman in the NHL. He's not forcing everything, like he was to start the year, and he's manhandling players in the defensive zone. He ALWAYS comes out of the corner with the puck if the other players goes in with it. It's really been fun to watch his development. His offense will come if he keeps it up, and it has been coming a bit lately, but the Avs struggle to score goals and get the least amount of PP time in the league.
It looks like he finally trusts his knee after the incident a few years back as well. He's the best player on the Avs right now, and the biggest reason why they've been playing a lot better.
Shatty's good D is proven out by his team leading and NHL rank 4th in plus / minus.
I know somebody is just going to say that Shatty is just on a better team that EJ and yeah, that's true. But if that's all it means then I guess Seguin, Bergeron, Del Zotto, Lidstrom, and Chara are just on good teams too and their plus /minus does not corrolate to their defensive skill at all.
Well in Seguin's case that is indeed true. He makes some good defensive plays, but makes a number of mistakes. At best he's an avg defensive player right now.
Oh and it's interesting to note that one season Bergeron not only had by far the worst +/- on the B's, but one of the worst in the league. +/- can be a useful stat but it absolutely cannot tell you if a player is a good defensive player or not.
Well, if you want to be technical, then yes. But Shatty plays against third pairing competition, which makes it much, much easier to hold the zone and get points. And he gets the highest offensive zone starts of any defensemen, so I'd factor that into saying he gets the softest minutes on the blueline in St. Louis.
And PDO is a number that adds one-ice shooting percentage and save percentage for a players goaltender while that player is on the ice. The average PDO is 1000, a .920 sv% and 8% shooting. A player with a PDO significantly higher than 1000 can be considered to be the beneficiary of "luck" over that period of time (in this case this whole season so far), whether it is because of an abnormally high shooting percentage while on ice, or the goaltender has played spectacularly behind a particular player. And PDO invariably will trend toward 1000 as the sample size gets larger.
Shatty has a 1031 PDO so far this season, and EJ only has a 996. Clearly, Shatty has had the benefit of luck, and for that reason has more points and a better plus-minus than he would if he had EJ's bad luck.
I like PDO because it can show that someone whose point totals and +/- don't look good is not actually having a bad season, but has simply had bad luck. A good example is Henrik Zetterberg earlier this season. His numbers were bad, so everyone wrote him off, but his PDO was putrid. Now, it's back up around 1000 and his numbers are in place. Anyone with advanced stats could have predicted that pucks would start going in for him.
Shatty and not even close. I love his vision and its what fits best with the Blues. In watching EJ, I really believe in my heart of hearts that the knee injury absolutely damaged his potential. I just don't see the movement from him that I should be seeing from a top D man. Look at Petro, he plays stellar D and can stick handle through crowds like no other...I don't see EJ fulfilling what he could have been all thanks to a golf cart.
Shatty and not even close. I love his vision and its what fits best with the Blues. In watching EJ, I really believe in my heart of hearts that the knee injury absolutely damaged his potential. I just don't see the movement from him that I should be seeing from a top D man. Look at Petro, he plays stellar D and can stick handle through crowds like no other...I don't see EJ fulfilling what he could have been all thanks to a golf cart.
yeah, you haven't watched EJ since December at least
They play completely different styles as defensemen and each bring a unique aspect that is important to the team they play for. As such, I can't vote. You just can't compare them, in my view. It'd be like me comparing John-Michael Liles to Jan Hejda. It just doesn't work.
Shatty and not even close. I love his vision and its what fits best with the Blues. In watching EJ, I really believe in my heart of hearts that the knee injury absolutely damaged his potential. I just don't see the movement from him that I should be seeing from a top D man. Look at Petro, he plays stellar D and can stick handle through crowds like no other...I don't see EJ fulfilling what he could have been all thanks to a golf cart.
You should watch him play for the Avs, it might change your mind.
This is good application of advanced statistics. If you know where to look and what to look for, advanced stats are very telling of a player's game. There are a few stats that still don't exist that I would like, but I expect that over the next ~20 years they will start recording them too.
Shattenkirk has excelled this season with sheltered minutes. It's simply using an asset to it's fullest ability and good coaching. If you look at plain, layman statistics, he's basically on par or above Pietrangelo for St. Louis; but if you look further into the advanced stats or simply watch and evaluate their games over a large sample, it's quite clear who the more valuable player is.
Shatty is given every opportunity to succeed and he's done just that. He's taken a good situation and excelled with it. However, he hasn't been thrown to the wolves like Pietrangelo has. He is paired with a very solid defender in his own right in Barret Jackman for most of his ES ice, and often placed in favorable situations and matchups that let him spend less time in his zone and more time in the offensive zone. When needed (ie. when St. Louis is trailing in the 3rd period), Shattenkirk pairs with Pietrangelo, again a very good spot to be in for a young defender in Shattenkirk's shoes. He's always had good support this season.
He's always been a very high level puck handler, a good passer, a good, smooth skater, and has an above average shot, especially for his size. But the thing I'm most impressed with is the way his overall game has improved, it really is something impressive now. His stickwork, his skating, his body positioning and angling, are all very much above average now; his game is very similar to Kris Letang's. It's not unreasonable to me to suggest that Shattenkirk can get to that level.
The one downside to his game is that he's good for a dangerous, avoidable turnover about once a game. I'm not sure that's something that goes away with time and experience, more a subset of the way he plays and the passes that he knows he can make.
But I also don't have any doubts that he can now handle tougher minutes, something I wouldn't have said at the start of the season. I would have no troubles mentioning him among the better defenders in the league now. He's really improved noticeably, it's been night and day to me from the start of the season. Ironically, that's when he was putting up all of his "points" and he has slowed down on that front ever since, but I think he's playing real good hockey now.
With Erik Johnson, you have someone who really has all the physical tools to be dominant. He's a good skater, a smooth skater, both backwards and forwards, but not overly fast or quick so he's not flashy. He's a player who can dominate defensively with both his stick and his body, and still learning on both fronts but still much better with his body than his stick. He's always been able to be a physical defender, but he does it smarter now, he's learning when and how to use to his stick. He's got a big shot, a good puck carrier (though he does this too much in the defensive zone, he needs to trust his defense partner more and simple move the puck to him instead of trying to breakout on his own so often), and a decent first pass.
His biggest weakness, in my opinion is that he tries to do too much himself and, as a result, he often holds onto the puck for too long; both in the defensive zone and offensive zone. He also doesn't read the play as well, as quickly as someone like Shattenkirk, which holds him back from being among the truely elite defenders in the league, whereas Shattenkirk lacks Johnson's physical tools. Johnson basically just doesn't move the puck quickly enough, is what my main concern with his game is.
Johnson is a very tempting package, you can see why he went first overall. There isn't much to not like about him as a player, but with his tools, with what he is physically capable of, he does leave me wanting more. He's much better without the puck than he is with the puck, which is likely the opposite of what you would expect in a first overall pick, which is the opposite of Shattenkirk, who is at his best when he's handling and moving the puck.
I like both players, I think they are both underrated.
Excellent post.
I believe they are both excelling at what they are asked to do and both fit their respective team's needs perfectly.
