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Old
04-01-2012, 01:04 AM
  #301
Puck U
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Old
04-01-2012, 01:12 AM
  #302
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Kings can no longer clinch on Monday.

Ideally for playoff clinching purposes, the Kings win on Monday and Dallas needs to lose vs. San Jose in Dallas. Dallas then only needs to lose one more "blown point" (and they will - see their schedule) for the Kings to clinch regardless of what the Kings do in their last two games.

If the Kings lose on Monday, they'll need a win vs. San Jose or more help from Dallas (3 points-blown) to make the playoffs.

So far, things are going according to plan for other teams, and better than expected for LA.

Remaining schedule:

Dallas:

vs. San Jose
@ Nashville
vs. St Louis

W-L-W

They lost the 2 games they should have, and still have a dreadful final 3 games. 2-1 to end the season is a generous prediction, but they play well at home and St. Louis will be resting players. 93 points.

Phoenix:

vs. Columbus
@ St. Louis
@ Minnesota* (Back-to-back and Fan Appreciation night in MIN)

W-L-L
Also on track. 1-2-0 to end the season. 93 points.

San Jose:

@ Dallas
@ Los Angeles
vs. Los Angeles

Also on track. L-L-W
1-2 to end the season. 92 points.

LA:

vs. Edmonton
vs. San Jose
@ San Jose

W-L-W-W-L

So far, better than I expected. I had them losing vs. Min and it was an OTL instead. 2-1-0 to end the season. 95 points.

Kings need to at LEAST get to 94 points (1-1-1) to avoid tiebreak scenarios with Dallas which they will lose and Phoenix which is very much up in the air.
Saying that ST Louis will be a win for Dallas because they will be resting players might be a little shortsighted. They are still in a dogfight for the Jennings trophy and also with Vancouver for 1st seed. Tonight Vancouver's win put them 1 point ahead of St Louis. The Blues have the tiebreaker so Vancouver to get the first seed they need to finish 1 pt ahead. I don't think St Louis will be resting players, which will be good for us as. St Louis also plays the Coyotes so hopefully they will help us those last 2 games.

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Old
04-01-2012, 01:14 AM
  #303
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Please just don't collapse, Kings. It would be humiliating to lose the last three games and get bounced by San Jo.

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Old
04-01-2012, 09:53 AM
  #304
Ron
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Phoenix:

vs. Columbus
@ St. Louis
@ Minnesota* (Back-to-back and Fan Appreciation night in MIN)

W-L-L
Also on track. 1-2-0 to end the season. 93 points.
IMO, here is the weak spot in your prediction.

I can see Phoenix running the table, forcing the Kings to win all their games to in order to secure the division title.

Phoenix has a hot goalie, having shut out both a desperate team to get in the playoffs (San Jose) and an explosive offensive team (Anaheim).

Strangely enough, the team I see giving them the most trouble in that scenario is Columbus, who have won three in a row over quality opponents (Florida, Detroit, St. Louis). The St. Louis game was in St. Louis, who appears to be gagging away the Conference lead, and let's face it, they can't fall lower than 2nd, so what is their motivation anyway to play well against Phoenix?

Minnesota, well I just don't know. They have been playing with renewed fire lately, but for two months they were the ****-tiest team in the league, and didn't appear to care too much either.

We shall see, but Phoenix has the inside position, IMO. Just hope they find a way to fall apart against one or more of these teams this week.

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Old
04-01-2012, 10:22 AM
  #305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron
Phoenix has a hot goalie, having shut out both a desperate team to get in the playoffs (San Jose) and an explosive offensive team (Anaheim).
Minnesota hosted Dallas during their fan appreciation night last season. That last game of the year where Dallas needed to win to make the playoffs. The Wild manhandled them. The Wild have a lot of pride for their fans. That's the last building on earth I'd want to be playing the last game of the season in.

St. Louis has lost what... 4 games at home all season? (1 to the Kings!)

Columbus is on fire.

Phoenix is just as likely to lose all 3 as Dallas is. 1-2 was somewhat generous (but IMO, realistic).

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04-01-2012, 10:26 AM
  #306
Ron
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Minnesota hosted Dallas during their fan appreciation night last season. That last game of the year where Dallas needed to win to make the playoffs. The Wild manhandled them. The Wild have a lot of pride for their fans. That's the last building on earth I'd want to be playing the last game of the season in.

St. Louis has lost what... 4 games at home all season? They're in a dogfight for 1st overall.

Columbus is on fire.

Phoenix is just as likely to lose all 3 as Dallas is. 1-2 was somewhat generous (but IMO, realistic).
I certainly hope you are right. Kings haven't won a division title in so long, I think it was my newlywed year and I have been married 20 years.

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04-01-2012, 10:34 AM
  #307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron View Post
I certainly hope you are right. Kings haven't won a division title in so long, I think it was my newlywed year and I have been married 20 years.
We'll see. Losing Carter hurts the division title chances. Hopefully he's back soon.

The last time the Kings won the division it wasn't even called the Pacific division.

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Old
04-01-2012, 11:20 AM
  #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Minnesota hosted Dallas during their fan appreciation night last season. That last game of the year where Dallas needed to win to make the playoffs. The Wild manhandled them. The Wild have a lot of pride for their fans. That's the last building on earth I'd want to be playing the last game of the season in.

St. Louis has lost what... 4 games at home all season? (1 to the Kings!)

Columbus is on fire.

Phoenix is just as likely to lose all 3 as Dallas is. 1-2 was somewhat generous (but IMO, realistic).
I agree.

I think the following happens.

Kings: W:W:L 95 points (We'll show up for Edmonton, I know it, the team has bounced back very well lately, and San Jose is an awful road team)
Phoenix: W:L: D/SL 94 points (They Win against Columbus, but St. Louis at home is a no go, and they do what we did last night and lose in a shootout to Minny)
SJ: L:L:W 92 points (San Jose is bad on the road, they lose to Dallas, and Us, and salvage two at home)
Dallas: W:L:L 91 points (Dallas is the odd one out based purely on strength of schedule. They pull out the SJ game but have two tough games that don't benefit them.)
Colorado: W:L 90 points (too few games left. Too little too late.)

and honestly, I have always liked to look at goal differential as a telling factor.

Teams with good goal differentials do not normally miss the playoffs. And as it currently stands, every team in the west in a playoff spot have a positive goal differential. Dallas is a -5 and Phoenix a +4, so those could definitely change over the next couple games but I see my following scenario as LIKELY...if teams play as expected.

But then again I called last night a good solid win for our boys but then they went into Richardson assist mode for the whole 3rd period and we only got a point.

Also I think a lot is sorted out by Tuesday and things become much clearer.

We will have our Edmonton result in the books (A W I hope).

Phoenix plays Columbus...which could be a real tight one given how the BJs are playing (And if Phoenix loses that...lookout.. And Dallas is essentially playing a must win game at home against San Jose.

At the end of the day Tuesday I am hoping it is a little more clear who is in and who isn't.

If San Jose wins on Tuesday, and so do we. Pretty much the Pacific division title comes down to our home and home series.

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Old
04-01-2012, 11:35 AM
  #309
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Honestly it was tough to have that game last night on bad travel.

But we got gifted a pretty good sched here at the end.

We played the easiest set of opponents. And we have a nice gap. 3 games in 6 days.

Every other team is playing a back to back or something like 3 in 5.

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04-01-2012, 11:50 AM
  #310
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron View Post
I certainly hope you are right. Kings haven't won a division title in so long, I think it was my newlywed year and I have been married 20 years.
Same here

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Old
04-01-2012, 08:56 PM
  #311
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Is it true that:

in the history of the Kings, since 1967, that they have won the conference title only one time and the Division title just a couple or 3 times, even with the Triple Crown line, Rogie Vachon, the Great One for 6-7 years, etc. ?

We can win the Pacific Division next week...

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04-01-2012, 09:53 PM
  #312
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In case no one mentioned it, the Flames have been eliminated, because Tuesday, Dallas plays San Jose, and the winner is guaranteed to be the 8th team with more points than Calgary can achieve.

It's officially down to five teams for three spots...

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04-01-2012, 10:01 PM
  #313
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Nope, they've only won the division title once in 1991, and the conference title (playoffs) in 1993 when they went to the finals against Montreal

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04-01-2012, 10:07 PM
  #314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tantrum4 View Post
Nope, they've only won the division title once in 1991, and the conference title (playoffs) in 1993 when they went to the finals against Montreal
I'm so friggin tired of looking at those banners. We need a new one so damn bad.

And on that note, does it bother me as much as anyone else that lucs retired Jersey is like 4 inches higher than everyone else's??? What's up with that?!?

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Old
04-01-2012, 10:34 PM
  #315
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MollerManor View Post
I'm so friggin tired of looking at those banners. We need a new one so damn bad.

And on that note, does it bother me as much as anyone else that lucs retired Jersey is like 4 inches higher than everyone else's??? What's up with that?!?


Was his jersey always a bit higher, or was that a move he made when he was appointed President of Business Operations.

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04-02-2012, 02:37 AM
  #316
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I think I figured it out what will happen.

We'll beat Edmonton in a shootout, but lose to San Jose in Regulation on Thursday giving us 93 points, 33 ROW.

Dallas will beat SJ in OT/SO, beat Nashville on Thursday giving them 93 points 35+ ROW.

Phoenix will beat Columbus, lose to St Louis, giving them 93 Points 34 ROW.

San Jose (given the above situations) ends up with 93 Points 33 ROW.

On Saturday, Phoenix and Dallas both lose in OT prior to the SJ/LA match-up giving them each 94 points. Winner takes division, loser misses playoffs. Heart attack city.

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04-03-2012, 12:48 AM
  #317
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Getting there!

Points-blown and magic # update:

6. LAK - 67 - GR: 2
7. PHX - 67 - GR: 3
8. SJS - 68 - GR: 3
-------------
9. DAL - 69 - GR: 3

LA leads the Pacific. They control their own destiny for the division title. Magic number is 3 to clinch a playoff spot AND 4 (via ROW - otherwise 5) to clinch the division title.

Current Magic Numbers:

Los Angeles – Games remaining: 2

Phoenix – Games remaining: 4. Magic number: 5 (-2)
San Jose – Games remaining: 4. Magic number: 4 (-2)
----------------------------------------------------------
Dallas – Games remaining: 3. Magic number: 3 (-2)
ColoradoELIMINATED
CalgaryELIMINATED
AnaheimELIMINATED
MinnesotaELIMINATED
EdmontonELIMINATED
ColumbusELIMINATED

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Beat Edmonton 2-0, playoff odds up 5.4 to 95.6%
93 points * 40 27-13


Last edited by TonySCV: 04-03-2012 at 10:15 AM.
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Old
04-03-2012, 01:11 AM
  #318
Jason Lewis
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I certainly will be watching those San Jose games with a bottle of Jameson readily available to either

A) celebrate A playoff birth
and/or
B) Celebrate the first division title in what...20 years?
or god forbid
C) drink heavily because of one of the most disappointing collapses ever

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04-03-2012, 01:14 AM
  #319
Jason Lewis
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Also,

How is Colorado eliminated?

THey are 2 points back of SJ and 1 of Dallas.

If Dallas beats San Jose and loses the next 2. They finish with 91 points.

Colorado wins out and finishes with 92.

San Jose loses all 3 and finishes with 90.

Colorado is mathematically not eliminated yet.

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Old
04-03-2012, 01:18 AM
  #320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaygokings View Post
Also,

How is Colorado eliminated?

THey are 2 points back of SJ and 1 of Dallas.

If Dallas beats San Jose and loses the next 2. They finish with 91 points.

Colorado wins out and finishes with 92.

San Jose loses all 3 and finishes with 90.

Colorado is mathematically not eliminated yet.
It doesn't mean they're eliminated from the playoff race, it means they can no longer pass us. We will finish ahead of them no matter what happens, therefore they're eliminated. If Colorado makes the playoffs, it means we make the playoffs.

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Old
04-03-2012, 01:19 AM
  #321
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaygokings View Post
Also,

How is Colorado eliminated?

THey are 2 points back of SJ and 1 of Dallas.

If Dallas beats San Jose and loses the next 2. They finish with 91 points.

Colorado wins out and finishes with 92.

San Jose loses all 3 and finishes with 90.

Colorado is mathematically not eliminated yet.
I think it just means they are eliminated as far as catching the Kings?

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Old
04-03-2012, 01:55 AM
  #322
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I think it just means they are eliminated as far as catching the Kings?
You're correct.

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04-03-2012, 01:58 AM
  #323
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Quote:
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I think it just means they are eliminated as far as catching the Kings?
Correct. These are only in the context of the Kings clinching a playoff spot. Each team has their own "set" of magic #s relevant to them. It's wonderfully complicated which is why you'll see several variations from team to team.

The magic # to win the division is calculated differently/separately as that is dependent on whichever team (currently the Coyotes) is closest to catching the team currently in the division lead. It just so happens that as of tonight, both the Kings magic # to make the playoffs and the magic # for the Kings to clinch the Pacific title is the same (3).

Tomorrow night, for example, the Kings magic number to clinch could be down to 1 if Dallas loses but the Pacifc title magic # will only drop if Phoenix loses (and may only drop by 1 depending on whether or not San Jose loses). They're independent calculations.

For tomorrow if you are rooting for the Kings simply to make the playoffs (ignoring the Division race), root for Phoenix to lose in regulation and for San Jose to win in regulation. If you're division title focused, root for Dallas to win and Phoenix to lose in regulation.


Last edited by TonySCV: 04-03-2012 at 02:08 AM.
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Old
04-03-2012, 02:29 AM
  #324
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Old
04-03-2012, 03:13 AM
  #325
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So here is exactly what needs to happen for the Kings to clinch the division on thursday night:

- SJ beats DAL tomorrow in regulation.
- CBJ beats PHX tomorrow in regulation.
- NSH beats DAL on thurs. in regulation.
- Kings beat SJ on thurs. in regulation.

That would leave the standings as follows:

LA 95
SJ 92
PHX 91*
DAL 89

*while PHX does have enough games in-hand to catch the Kings, they would win on tiebreakers.

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