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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread VII

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Old
03-07-2012, 03:40 PM
  #351
TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
from that era and still available and with that selke record?
The era is part of the problem. This is a guy who played in the highest scoring era in NHL history and never scored 20 goals

Erixon received a number of Selke votes on several occasions, but he was only a finalist once. He's obviously a very good defensive player, but he's not exactly Bob Gainey out there.

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03-07-2012, 03:47 PM
  #352
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Originally Posted by Stoneberg View Post
With one of the weaker starters, I need a strong back-up goalie before we go on a run of them.

I'll take the BGA, John Vanbiesbrouck.

will PM next.
probably the best goalie remaining.

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Originally Posted by JFA87-66-99 View Post
The Pittsburgh Bankers select gritty 4th line RW Cully Wilson
Elite 4th line tough guy and pest. Also can score.

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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
I'm not a fan of removing guys in voting finishes. It completely eliminates the fact that those guys were so far ahead of everyone else, and overrates the guys that are left. There's also no perspective of how guys were like there are in percentages(we can see a guy was 80% of 2nd place), but with removing guys with voting finishes, there is no scope of how the guys stack up with each other. Not a fan of it at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
It is fine to point out that the competition Joseph faced was tougher than what Barrasso faced in the first part of his career, but you take it way too far when you eliminate Roy and Hasek from a comparison of voting finishes. What you are doing is rationally flawed, and you seem to be the only one who actually believes that such methodology is sensible.
You guys are missing the point. It’s not about removing “outliers” and especially not statistical outliers as there are no stats involved, and it doesn’t concern me how far “ahead” one was of the other.

The exercise of removing Hasek and Roy from Vezina voting results is nothing more than saying “here’s what Joseph’s Vezina results might have looked like if he played in an era with top-end goaltending competition closer to Barrasso’s”.

Do you disagree with that?

I mean, I could just say “Joseph’s Vezina record is just as impressive as Barrasso’s once you consider the differences between top-end goaltenders in their respective eras”, but why not attempt to quantify/demonstrate it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by God Made Me View Post
1893 Montreal AAA is proud to select LW Jan Erixon who played for the Rangers in the late-80's/early-90's. Erixon is typically not an ATDer, but he should be, because he was an excellent pure checker. Here is his Selke record:

1986-87: 7th
1987-88: 3rd
1988-89: 9th
1989-90: 6th
1990-91: 8th
1991-92: a couple of votes. Pming Nalyd Psycho.
I like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
Erixon is probably the worst forward offensively that will be drafted, and his durability is a definite question mark, but definitely an ATD level defensive forward.
He’s not the worst, and you’re free to believe he’s a “liability” offensively as long as it follows that some other players are in that category as well.

Erixon scored 27 adjusted ES points per season (and of course ES points are what matter here) which is as many as one soon-to-be drafted forward, and one more than Doug Jarvis. It’s also within just 4 points of Gainey, Mactavish, Otto, Keane, and 5 more who are soon to be drafted. I guess if you draw the line between “liability” and “not a liability” at somewhere between 27 and 30…

That, of course, just covers post-expansion, and therefore only about half the forwards who are drafted here. Percy Galbraith, Louis Berlinguette and at least one soon-to-be drafted all stand out as worse. There may be more, but they don’t stick out as easily without a spreadsheet breaking down their careers.

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03-07-2012, 03:47 PM
  #353
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The era is part of the problem. This is a guy who played in the highest scoring era in NHL history and never scored 20 goals

Erixon received a number of Selke votes on several occasions, but he was only a finalist once. He's obviously a very good defensive player, but he's not exactly Bob Gainey out there.
I'm not sure its fair to compare him to a player who was given time on the PP. Erixon was never used on the PP. Gainey played on a powerhouse, Erixon played on a team that made the playoffs with losing records. It's not hard to get those ten extra points when you play on a team like the canadiens back then (while obviously being a good player himself)

Give me a list of the real defensive specialists on average teams during this era who scored 20 goals and Ill tell you the list wont be long.

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03-07-2012, 03:49 PM
  #354
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The era is part of the problem. This is a guy who played in the highest scoring era in NHL history and never scored 20 goals

Erixon received a number of Selke votes on several occasions, but he was only a finalist once. He's obviously a very good defensive player, but he's not exactly Bob Gainey out there.
Bob Gainey never scored 20 ESG either, just saying...

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03-07-2012, 03:49 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
You're eliminating two goalies now for a Vezina voting comparison?! I have serious issues with your methods of removing outliers.

This reminds me of the Bobby Orr // Bill White discussion in the HOH defensemen thread; it is not Orr's existence which was the outlier, but rather the quality of his dominance. Same for Hasek and Roy. Removing outliers is for percentage comparisons. That you do it for voting comparisons is deeply flawed.
I agree with you on two points.

1) I would take Barasso over Joseph because of his peak value, especially in the playoffs

2) seventies sometimes goes overboard in removing outliers to the point where his methods sometimes lose their objectivity. I've become convinced by BM67 and others that Vs2 loses its usefulness when you have to remove too many outliers (I'm going to switch to Vs5 for post-expansion players only. VS5 removes all the outliers for you).

But here I have to more or less take 70s side. You can't possibly do a straight up comparison of the Vezina records of Barrasso, who came in at the tail end of one of the worst generations of goaltenders ever, with Joseph, whose prime overlapped with the most competitive era for goalies ever.

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03-07-2012, 04:01 PM
  #356
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Erixon scored 27 adjusted ES points per season
Oh, praytell, which seasons were those???

After all he only had two actual seasons he even reached 27 points.

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03-07-2012, 04:03 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Oh, praytell, which seasons were those???
You're 20 minutes late! I thought for sure you'd be here to crap on Erixon ages ago.

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03-07-2012, 04:05 PM
  #358
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You're 20 minutes late! I thought for sure you'd be here to crap on Erixon ages ago.
I have no problem with the pick as a specialist or whatever, just any argument that a guy with career high of 8 goals during the 80s is bringing much of anything to the table offensively.

You'd think after the drubbing you took in the lower draft last year you'd have let sleeping dogs lie.

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03-07-2012, 04:08 PM
  #359
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
probably the best goalie remaining.



Elite 4th line tough guy and pest. Also can score.





You guys are missing the point. It’s not about removing “outliers” and especially not statistical outliers as there are no stats involved, and it doesn’t concern me how far “ahead” one was of the other.

The exercise of removing Hasek and Roy from Vezina voting results is nothing more than saying “here’s what Joseph’s Vezina results might have looked like if he played in an era with top-end goaltending competition closer to Barrasso’s”.

Do you disagree with that?

I mean, I could just say “Joseph’s Vezina record is just as impressive as Barrasso’s once you consider the differences between top-end goaltenders in their respective eras”, but why not attempt to quantify/demonstrate it?



I like it.



He’s not the worst, and you’re free to believe he’s a “liability” offensively as long as it follows that some other players are in that category as well.

Erixon scored 27 adjusted ES points per season (and of course ES points are what matter here) which is as many as one soon-to-be drafted forward, and one more than Doug Jarvis. It’s also within just 4 points of Gainey, Mactavish, Otto, Keane, and 5 more who are soon to be drafted. I guess if you draw the line between “liability” and “not a liability” at somewhere between 27 and 30…

That, of course, just covers post-expansion, and therefore only about half the forwards who are drafted here. Percy Galbraith, Louis Berlinguette and at least one soon-to-be drafted all stand out as worse. There may be more, but they don’t stick out as easily without a spreadsheet breaking down their careers.
Well, Berlinguette's lack of offense is why I didn't draft him though he definitely has a short peak of non-pathetic scoring

As for the post expansion guys, Gainey is the only one dominant enough offensively for me to want him taking a regular shift at this level. The rest are all 4th liners drafted as specialists:

Jarvis is an elite penalty killer and faceoff man

Otto has an ability to match up against power forwards in the playoffs.

Keane brings leadership if a team needs it.

I don't see Erixon having the one standout skill those guys have. (Neither does MacTavish as far as I can tell). And his "per game" rates come with the disclaimer that he's often injured

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03-07-2012, 04:09 PM
  #360
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Oh, praytell, which seasons were those???

After all he only had two actual seasons he even reached 27 points.
hockey-reference has erixon's adjusted points at 178 in 10 seasons (top season: 24p). and erixon of course had some SH points.

i don't understand how he could average 27p at ES.

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03-07-2012, 04:17 PM
  #361
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
But here I have to more or less take 70s side. You can't possibly do a straight up comparison of the Vezina records of Barrasso, who came in at the tail end of one of the worst generations of goaltenders ever, with Joseph, whose prime overlapped with the most competitive era for goalies ever.
Of course this is true, but the methodology of arbitrarily removing Roy and Hasek is brutal. There is no way to quantitatively account for the effect of differences in competitive level on voting records, and attempting to do so only substitutes a natural distortion for an artificial one.

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03-07-2012, 04:20 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't see Erixon having the one standout skill those guys have. (Neither does MacTavish as far as I can tell). And his "per game" rates come with the disclaimer that he's often injured
Erixon is a left wing with that Selke record. That is a very different animal than the centers you mentioned. He was an excellent penalty-killer, as well, as I recall. GMM seems to have made a pure checking line with Erixon - Kurtenback - Keane. Ok, Kurtenbach has some offensive ability, but Keane has no more than Erixon, and there weren't any wingers available at this point who were good enough two-way players to make the unit into a legit two-way line. I think the decision to sod offense and make the line as defensively strong as possible is a sensible one, especially with the 4th line he's got on that team.

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03-07-2012, 04:20 PM
  #363
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I have no problem with the pick as a specialist or whatever, just any argument that a guy with career high of 8 goals during the 80s is bringing much of anything to the table offensively.

You'd think after the drubbing you took in the lower draft last year you'd have let sleeping dogs lie.
Yes, I took such a drubbing that I got to the finals and three MLDers are now ATDers so far, and they’re all my selections, including Erixon. What a pasting I took!

I never said he brings much of anything to the table offensively. But there are players here who never produced much more than him at ES, and they’re not considered “liabilities”, nor should he be. You need to read more. I know you can, I’ve seen you do it before.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't see Erixon having the one standout skill those guys have. (Neither does MacTavish as far as I can tell). And his "per game" rates come with the disclaimer that he's often injured
How about just plain old defensive ability?

And of course he’s often injured, but that has everything to do with how many games you can expect him to play and nothing to do with what his performance will be like when he’s in the lineup.

His selke record is actually incredible too considering his missed games had to cost him votes.

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Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
hockey-reference has erixon's adjusted points at 178 in 10 seasons (top season: 24p). and erixon of course had some SH points.

i don't understand how he could average 27p at ES.
season = 80 games. Sorry for not being more clear.

Also I’m going by overpass’ sheet. It may come out 1-2 points off depending on slightly differing formulas.

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03-07-2012, 04:30 PM
  #364
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
season = 80 games. Sorry for not being more clear.

Also I’m going by overpass’ sheet. It may come out 1-2 points off depending on slightly differing formulas.
that makes sense.

brings up another problem, though. erixon played 556 of a possible 804 regular season games during his NHL career, and 14 of 19 playoff games.

very good checking W and PKer, though.

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03-07-2012, 04:32 PM
  #365
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Apparently updating the OP stops happening when my computer is in the shop (posting from my phone now).

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03-07-2012, 04:40 PM
  #366
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But here I have to more or less take 70s side. You can't possibly do a straight up comparison of the Vezina records of Barrasso, who came in at the tail end of one of the worst generations of goaltenders ever, with Joseph, whose prime overlapped with the most competitive era for goalies ever.
I would add that I think we are all capable of making "fuzzy" value adjustments to players based on the competition they faced without the need to remove outliers in voting comparisons. For example, I was just looking over Barry Beck's AST voting record again, and I was impressed by the ridiculous level of competition he faced at his peak. Here are the top-10 AST finishers at defense during Beck's best seasons:

1977-78: Denis Potvin 226; Brad Park 201; Larry Robinson 200; Borje Salming 166; Serge Savard 64; Barry Beck 37; Guy LaPointe 26; Jim Schoenfeld 12; Jim Watson 9; xxxxxxx 8; Reed Larson 8

1978-79: Denis Potvin, NYI 249; Larry Robinson, Mtl 196; Borje Salming, Tor 157; Serge Savard, Mtl 111; Barry Beck, Col 39; Guy Lapointe, Mtl 36; xxxxxxxxx, Wsh 35; Brad Park, Bos 15; xxxxxxxx, NYI 13; Reed Larson, Det 11

1979-80: Larry Robinson 280; Ray Bourque 183; Borje Salming 179; Jim Schoenfeld 134; Mark Howe 102; Barry Beck 51; Denis Potvin 22; Doug Wilson 20; Ron Stack house 18; Rod Langway 18

1981-82: Doug Wilson 235; Ray Bourque 170; Paul Coffey 123; Brian Engblom 112; Craig Hartsburg 108; Larry Robinson 91; Kevin Lowe 55; Rod Langway 54; Barry Beck 45; Denis Potvin 35

1983-84: Rod Langway 285; Ray Bourque 232; Paul Coffey 226; Denis Potvin 189; Phil Housley 38; Mike Ramsey 32; Scott Stevens 23; Barry Beck 18; Mark Howe 17; xxxxxx 16

Now, Beck's owner could argue that because this was an überdeep period of competition at defense, that we should just remove the top two finishers from the comparison...and suddenly Barry Beck is a three time 2nd team all-star. Is that sensible? There is a point to be made about the level of competition to be sure (Beck is similar to Joseph in this sense, which is why I bring it up...also, Reen is paying me), but I do not believe that it is best made by arbitrarily removing players from the voting record. The history is what it is. It is better to just present all the facts and let the individual GMs make their own sense out of differences in competitive levels.

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03-07-2012, 04:56 PM
  #367
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
EB: I know they aren’t contemporaries, but how does Abel go before this guy?
I'll take Abel before both Portland and Armstrong, but they are all in the same tier. As I wrote you via PM, I was impress with Jack Portland. Bob Armstrong is another defenceman I only knew by name, and I agree with the majority that him and Portland have pretty much the same portfolio.

I know I won't change your mind (Have I ever?), but I still stand that a few votes here and there dosn't hold any ground to me. There's too much variable to take a very small percentage seriously. Obviously, both Armstrong and Portland (especially Armstrong) have some decent voting record noteworthy, and they have to be taken into account. The difference between you and me is that voting and points dosn't talk to me the way it do to you. I'll take a dozen of quotes of numerous articles/books that called someone good, over point total/voting record/number crunching that equal the same. Although I like to point out stats in my biographies, I'm not a stats guy. That's something we will never agree on, and it's fine that way. The ATD would be boring after a few drafts if so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JFA87-66-99 View Post
The Pittsburgh Bankers select gritty 4th line RW Cully Wilson
If I couldn't get my hand on Rayner, Cully Wilson was my selection. He's an elite 4th liner (and would have thrived beside Billy Burch), but IMO he's at the top of his tier, while Rayner was on a lonely tier of his own. Hopefully some Wilson-lite will be available in a full round, but at this point I believe you took the BPA in the role you want him to play.

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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
Erixon is probably the worst forward offensively that will be drafted, and his durability is a definite question mark, but definitely an ATD level defensive forward.
I have a name in mind that will surely be drafted that is probably worst offensively, but he had much, much longer durability.

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03-07-2012, 04:58 PM
  #368
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The era is part of the problem. This is a guy who played in the highest scoring era in NHL history and never scored 20 goals. ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
... I think the decision to sod offense and make the line as defensively strong as possible is a sensible one, especially with the 4th line he's got on that team.
Agreed, Sturm. TDMM is criticizing my 3rd line checking LW for never having more goals than LW Michael Cammalleri had last season. I think my 4th line has a little offense. Here's the 3rd and 4th lines Sturm is referring to.

Jan Erixon - Orland Kurtenbach - Mike Keane
Rick Nash - Pierre Turgeon - John MacLean

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03-07-2012, 05:05 PM
  #369
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Agreed, Sturm. TDMM is criticizing my 3rd line checking LW for never having more goals than LW Michael Cammalleri had last season. I think my 4th line has a little offense. Here's the 3rd and 4th lines Sturm is referring to.

Jan Erixon - Orland Kurtenbach - Mike Keane
Rick Nash - Pierre Turgeon - John MacLean
Actually, BC corrected me. Erixon's highest career goal total is 8. Scored in the highest scoring era in NHL history.

You can use as many condescending laughy faces as you want, but I would never give a forward with that little skill 18-20 minutes of ice time per game at this level. We obviously have different philosophies there.

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03-07-2012, 05:15 PM
  #370
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Actually, BC corrected me. Erixon's highest career goal total is 8. Scored in the highest scoring era in NHL history.

You can use as many condescending laughy faces as you want, but I would never give a forward with that little skill 18-20 minutes of ice time per game at this level. We obviously have different philosophies there.
who are you referring to? Erixon?

3rd liners don't play 18-20 minutes.

edit: BC PM'd you to correct you on that?


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03-07-2012, 05:16 PM
  #371
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Agreed, Sturm. TDMM is criticizing my 3rd line checking LW for never having more goals than LW Michael Cammalleri had last season. I think my 4th line has a little offense. Here's the 3rd and 4th lines Sturm is referring to.

Jan Erixon - Orland Kurtenbach - Mike Keane
Rick Nash - Pierre Turgeon - John MacLean
No. It's your fourth line. I can't see any sensible reason for a coach to give more icetime to the Kurtenbach line. Honestly, none of those three players deserve 3rd line icetime.

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03-07-2012, 05:18 PM
  #372
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I'll take Abel before both Portland and Armstrong, but they are all in the same tier. As I wrote you via PM, I was impress with Jack Portland. Bob Armstrong is another defenceman I only knew by name, and I agree with the majority that him and Portland have pretty much the same portfolio.

I know I won't change your mind (Have I ever?), but I still stand that a few votes here and there dosn't hold any ground to me. There's too much variable to take a very small percentage seriously. Obviously, both Armstrong and Portland (especially Armstrong) have some decent voting record noteworthy, and they have to be taken into account. The difference between you and me is that voting and points dosn't talk to me the way it do to you. I'll take a dozen of quotes of numerous articles/books that called someone good, over point total/voting record/number crunching that equal the same. Although I like to point out stats in my biographies, I'm not a stats guy. That's something we will never agree on, and it's fine that way. The ATD would be boring after a few drafts if so.
I agree. I'll take the guy who's name is on the tips of people's tongue every time when compared to a similar player that no one talked about.

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03-07-2012, 05:25 PM
  #373
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
who are you referring to? Erixon?

3rd liners don't play 18-20 minutes.

edit: BC PM'd you to correct you on that?

BC posted in this thread. How could you miss the boldface?

Dedicated third line checking lines probably average 18 minutes per game, and considering you don't want Pierre Turgeon anywhere near a defensive zone draw, I said 18-20. Perhaps I should have stuck with 18

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03-07-2012, 05:29 PM
  #374
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Apparently updating the OP stops happening when my computer is in the shop (posting from my phone now).
Seriously, eh lol?

It's sitting there ready to quote and paste at the bottom of page 14 for any of our resident mods or our OP to handle.

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03-07-2012, 05:31 PM
  #375
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Erixon scored 27 adjusted ES points per season
Again, when?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
hockey-reference has erixon's adjusted points at 178 in 10 seasons (top season: 24p). and erixon of course had some SH points.

i don't understand how he could average 27p at ES.
He can't, it is statistical smoke.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Yes, I took such a drubbing that I got to the finals and three MLDers are now ATDers so far, and they’re all my selections, including Erixon. What a pasting I took!
Not talking about that at all.

Quote:
I never said he brings much of anything to the table offensively. But there are players here who never produced much more than him at ES, and they’re not considered “liabilities”, nor should he be. You need to read more. I know you can, I’ve seen you do it before.
So do you, see below.

Quote:
How about just plain old defensive ability?

And of course he’s often injured, but that has everything to do with how many games you can expect him to play and nothing to do with what his performance will be like when he’s in the lineup.

His selke record is actually incredible too considering his missed games had to cost him votes.
No one is disputing he is a good defensive player.

But you can't score or check when you aren't playing, what, 30% of the time?

Quote:
season = 80 games. Sorry for not being more clear.
Yeah, just a small detail. Then add in that he never played 80 games... He made it to 70 or more twice, though!


Quote:
Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
that makes sense.

brings up another problem, though. erixon played 556 of a possible 804 regular season games during his NHL career, and 14 of 19 playoff games.

very good checking W and PKer, though.
Bingo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
who are you referring to? Erixon?

3rd liners don't play 18-20 minutes.
If you are using them as a shutdown line against a 1st or 2nd line, you do. And if they aren't capable of generating any offensive of their own.. what else do you do with them?

Quote:
edit: BC PM'd you to correct you on that?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
BC posted in this thread. How could you miss the boldface?


Quote:
Dedicated third line checking lines probably average 18 minutes per game, and considering you don't want Pierre Turgeon anywhere near a defensive zone draw, I said 18-20. Perhaps I should have stuck with 18
Pretty much my thinking above too.

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