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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread VII

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Old
03-08-2012, 02:33 AM
  #426
jkrx
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Erixon is a left wing with that Selke record. That is a very different animal than the centers you mentioned. He was an excellent penalty-killer, as well, as I recall. GMM seems to have made a pure checking line with Erixon - Kurtenback - Keane. Ok, Kurtenbach has some offensive ability, but Keane has no more than Erixon, and there weren't any wingers available at this point who were good enough two-way players to make the unit into a legit two-way line. I think the decision to sod offense and make the line as defensively strong as possible is a sensible one, especially with the 4th line he's got on that team.
There are players with two-way capabillity who could have fit that line.

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03-08-2012, 02:39 AM
  #427
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Man, does Erixon generate a flamewar every year or what?

All the talk about his offense, but what I'd actually be afraid of - in the context of his team/line - is that his injuries will severely hamper the line and the whole team's defensive plan unless the team has another very good/excellent checking LW as spare to fill in. For filling in a hole on no-offense all-defense line like that with an offense-oriented spare would make for one hell of a crappy line 30% of time.

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03-08-2012, 03:34 AM
  #428
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Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
Man, does Erixon generate a flamewar every year or what?

All the talk about his offense, but what I'd actually be afraid of - in the context of his team/line - is that his injuries will severely hamper the line and the whole team's defensive plan unless the team has another very good/excellent checking LW as spare to fill in. For filling in a hole on no-offense all-defense line like that with an offense-oriented spare would make for one hell of a crappy line 30% of time.
This is a more valid concern than his offense. He wasn't exactly an iron man, far from it.

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03-08-2012, 06:53 AM
  #429
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canadiens de montreal select tomas sandstrom , rw

plz pm next gm

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03-08-2012, 08:17 AM
  #430
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Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
Man, does Erixon generate a flamewar every year or what?

All the talk about his offense, but what I'd actually be afraid of - in the context of his team/line - is that his injuries will severely hamper the line and the whole team's defensive plan unless the team has another very good/excellent checking LW as spare to fill in. For filling in a hole on no-offense all-defense line like that with an offense-oriented spare would make for one hell of a crappy line 30% of time.
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Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
This is a more valid concern than his offense. He wasn't exactly an iron man, far from it.
He just provided a sterling example of why you shouldn't necessarily take statistics thrown out in these threads at face value.

Obviously a guy with a history of missing games as often as he did is going to impact both his offensive and defensive value so you're right.. his team can basically count on needing to use his spare 30% of the time.

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03-08-2012, 08:45 AM
  #431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
This is a more valid concern than his offense. He wasn't exactly an iron man, far from it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
Man, does Erixon generate a flamewar every year or what?

All the talk about his offense, but what I'd actually be afraid of - in the context of his team/line - is that his injuries will severely hamper the line and the whole team's defensive plan unless the team has another very good/excellent checking LW as spare to fill in. For filling in a hole on no-offense all-defense line like that with an offense-oriented spare would make for one hell of a crappy line 30% of time.

I think the issue BC is talking about is more geared towards how 70's was trying to sell his offense...

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03-08-2012, 09:31 AM
  #432
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
I think the issue BC is talking about is more geared towards how 70's was trying to sell his offense...
In seventies' defense, he is consistent in tracking offensive stats in this way. In case anyone had forgotten the discussion of Pierre Turgeon.

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03-08-2012, 09:43 AM
  #433
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
In seventies' defense, he is consistent in tracking offensive stats in this way. In case anyone had forgotten the discussion of Pierre Turgeon.
I'm not saying either of them are right or wrong, I was just pointing out that a bulk of the discussion on Erixon was about methods to calculate things etc..




Also who can take a list?

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03-08-2012, 10:11 AM
  #434
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I think it is clear enough that Erixon's per-game offensive production is not out of line with many ATD checkers, which is what I remember of him from his time in New York. His hands were not great, but they weren't particularly bad, either, and he had enough speed to capitalize on even-strength turnovers. I think it's also clear that he was a very good checker from the LW position. The issue with Jan is that we can expect him to be banged up somewhat.

I think seventies' per-game scoring data is helpful for looking at players like Erixon (and Turgeon). To look only at the per-season scoring data but then also factor in missed games is a kind of double-whammy that is not really fair to these players. When healthy, I think Erixon is certainly a worthy ATD checker. You just have to factor in that he's going to miss some time in the ATD season.

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03-08-2012, 10:26 AM
  #435
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Winnipeg Falcons is proud to announce an ATD rookie: Patrick Sharp, W


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03-08-2012, 10:43 AM
  #436
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ok, NOW I'm good to pick

Lada Togliatti selects C Ryan Getzlaf




I'll be moving Staal to the left wing and re-uniting him with one of his two centers (the other being Crosby) from the 2010 Olympics.

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03-08-2012, 11:39 AM
  #437
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
To look only at the per-season scoring data but then also factor in missed games is a kind of double-whammy that is not really fair to these players.
Exactly.

To beat the dead horse that is Turgeon, I should just point out that he’s not an injury case or fragile player at all. His 4 significant-ish injuries were just so poorly timed in the impact they ultimately had on his legacy, probably more than anyone else.

Quote:
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ok, NOW I'm good to pick

Lada Togliatti selects C Ryan Getzlaf




I'll be moving Staal to the left wing and re-uniting him with one of his two centers (the other being Crosby) from the 2010 Olympics.
When it’s all said and done, how on earth are we going to be able to differentiate between Staal, Getzlaf and Lecavalier?

For now, I take Vinny, but the other two will catch him in career value too.

They all have one cup and will probably finish their careers with one as they tend to not make the playoffs that often. At this rate, there won't be much choosing between their playoff numbers either.

Does anyone else think Getzlaf's glare is starting to look more and more like Messier every year?

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03-08-2012, 11:41 AM
  #438
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
as for not "letting sleeping dogs lie":

I did not bring up Erixon's offense. Other people did.

As for me apparently thinking (according to Condescending Willy Wonka) that Erixon's offense is underrated:

Erixon's offense was discussed in a way that suggested it was so poor, that the other 191 bottom 6 forwards in the draft would get somewhere between 20 and 45 points in an ATD season, and Erixon would lag behind with 10. When in reality, there are actually forwards in this draft with production levels very similar to his at even strength. There's no doubt he would be very close to the bottom when all is said and done but he wouldn't be the worst, and he would still be reasonably close to many of the players he was behind*

*(on a per-game level, that is. Because he will probably miss 30% of the games)
I think Erixon has the worst offence of any post-expansion forward drafted yet, in terms of the metric that is most favourable to him, career adjusted even-strength points per-game. You have to remember that most of the career averages of the players he is compared to came in 900+ GP, not 556 GP.

Jarvis was slightly below Erixon in career average, but had a 720 game stretch from 1977 to 1985 where he was 5% more productive than Erixon in this metric. Gainey was the next worst drafted player, with a 920 game stretch from 1975-86 where he was 13% more productive than Erixon by this metric. Kris Draper's career average is just above Erixon, but if you look at his 662 GP from 1998 to 2007 he was 26% more productive.

There is one post-expansion forward who has usually been drafted before who's offence was basically equal to Erixon's according to this metric, and who didn't play many more games.

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Old
03-08-2012, 12:00 PM
  #439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
When it’s all said and done, how on earth are we going to be able to differentiate between Staal, Getzlaf and Lecavalier?

For now, I take Vinny, but the other two will catch him in career value too.

They all have one cup and will probably finish their careers with one as they tend to not make the playoffs that often. At this rate, there won't be much choosing between their playoff numbers either.

Does anyone else think Getzlaf's glare is starting to look more and more like Messier every year?
It's funny as I had the 3 of them, and Weight, all within the same range as where I would have them rated. Maybe a half a dozen picks separating the 4 value wise. Perhaps I had them overrated a tad looking at how long Getzlaf was still on the board. But they're all physical (actually I'd say that Getzlaf is the most physical of the 3), consistent, good in the playoffs (Staal's the best of the bunch there IMO), and just solid all-around players. They won't "make" a team, but the certainly won't even come close to breaking one, and if you can put them in a 3rd/4th line role (depending on how you prefer that line to play) they'll be a strong fit.

Most interesting thing to observe over the next few years is whether or not Getzlaf and Staal can get any separation from Vinny and even Weight. And if Stamkos (who I had rated just behind them) can catch and pass them in regards to overall value. It's odd to say but if Stamkos were a winger he might be the best pick of this group of 5 players I had referenced way back when I drafted Staal. But as a center he probably has the lowest all-around value though not by much. Just a matter of the defensive responsibility that falls on a centerman that a player can get away with easing off on as a winger.

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Old
03-08-2012, 12:12 PM
  #440
TheDevilMadeMe
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Getzlaf was great value for a physical/offensive 4th line

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Old
03-08-2012, 12:13 PM
  #441
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
I think Erixon has the worst offence of any post-expansion forward drafted yet, in terms of the metric that is most favourable to him, career adjusted even-strength points per-game. You have to remember that most of the career averages of the players he is compared to came in 900+ GP, not 556 GP.

Jarvis was slightly below Erixon in career average, but had a 720 game stretch from 1977 to 1985 where he was 5% more productive than Erixon in this metric. Gainey was the next worst drafted player, with a 920 game stretch from 1975-86 where he was 13% more productive than Erixon by this metric. Kris Draper's career average is just above Erixon, but if you look at his 662 GP from 1998 to 2007 he was 26% more productive.

There is one post-expansion forward who has usually been drafted before who's offence was basically equal to Erixon's according to this metric, and who didn't play many more games.
I do realize that, but by far the biggest reason that GP are a consideration is because of all the games a player may have played pre-prime and post-prime that drag their average down compared to a player who was "all prime". In Erixon's case he missed games all throughout his 10-year career and would have been an 800-game player if healthy. So we are still talking about 10 years vs. 13 vs. 16, not as big a gap as GP would indicate. I'm all for using higher GP of a similar average to demonstrate more consistent production for sure, but the point stands that Erixon would still be in the very bottom tier of "the pack" and not lagging 50% behind the "next worst" as some may have us believe.

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03-08-2012, 01:07 PM
  #442
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Does anyone else think Getzlaf's glare is starting to look more and more like Messier every year?
It's the receding hair line.

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03-08-2012, 02:14 PM
  #443
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I like the Sharp pick. The guy is so underrated in terms of what he brings to the Hawks, aside from scoring.

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03-08-2012, 03:45 PM
  #444
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Modo was on a 5 hour clock, so he's skipped.

Swamp Devils pick

Ray Getliffe, C/LW

Getliffe is fast, good defensively, and gritty. And he can chip in on the scoreboard occasionally.

-3rd in Calder voting in 1936-37

top 20 finishes
Points: 17, 17, 18*
Goals: 10*, 15, 15
Assists: 14

*War year

And he has several more finishes just out of the top 20.

Getliffe finished 5th in team playoff scoring for the 1944 Cup winners (the Punch Line was 1-3).

Not awful for a guy who spent the majority of his career on checking lines and probably received limited PP time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LOH
Forward Ray Getliffe played nearly 400 NHL games for the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens in the 30s and 40s. He was a fine goal scorer who could check and battle for the puck along the boards and in the slot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OurHistory
The 5-foot-11, 175-pounder was among the speediest forwards in the league, a skilled two-way performer, equally adept at attacking the enemy net or playing in a defensive role.
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Originally Posted by LOH
The clever centre/left-winger scored 16 goals for Boston as a rookie in 1936-37 and remained a regular for two more years. In 1938-39 he formed a solid two-way line with Dit Clapper and Xxx which helped Boston win its second Stanley Cup. A few months later he was traded to the Montreal Canadiens... His first official duty for his new club was participating in the Babe Siebert Memorial Game on October 29, 1939.
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Originally Posted by OurHistory
Acquired from the Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins prior to the 1939-40 season, the gritty left winger was a mainstay for the Canadiens over the next six seasons.
Quote:
Ray Getliffe, the hard-hitting forward credited with giving Canadiens' teammate Maurice Richard the nickname ?The Rocket,? has died.
Read more: http://hockey.realgm.com/src_wiretap...#ixzz1pAB6g7wS


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 03-15-2012 at 01:27 AM.
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03-08-2012, 03:53 PM
  #445
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I like the Sharp pick. The guy is so underrated in terms of what he brings to the Hawks, aside from scoring.
I thought that also, but a former ATD champ (who knows more than I) thought he was drafted early in the 7th round of the 2011 MLD draft so I'm not sure now.

Round 7 85. Iain Fyffe - Brandon Shamrocks - Patrick Sharp, F

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03-08-2012, 03:56 PM
  #446
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Does anyone else think Getzlaf's glare is starting to look more and more like Messier every year?
His hair is, too.

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03-08-2012, 03:59 PM
  #447
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His hair is, too.
Messlaf

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Old
03-08-2012, 04:07 PM
  #448
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Mark selects Mike Vernon, G.

Will pm next.

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Old
03-08-2012, 04:07 PM
  #449
seventieslord
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I thought that also, but a former ATD champ (who knows more than I) thought he was drafted early in the 7th round of the 2011 MLD draft so I'm not sure now.

Round 7 85. Iain Fyffe - Brandon Shamrocks - Patrick Sharp, F
Yeah. Itís easy to like Sharp right now, but putting him into a historical context I donít see what makes him a good pick at this moment compared to other available players Ė guys who played roles for multiple championships, and/or had some good scoring seasons, and/or were just as solid defensively, but for a full career instead of half a career.

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03-08-2012, 04:17 PM
  #450
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Simple point on the discussion about Erixon. Yes, we shouldn't take his production of a full season at face value, as when Erixon was injured, someone was replacing him and putting some points on the board himself, but at the same time we cannot give the replacement (and his linemate) the same kind of production they normally did in real life, as most players are affected by shuffling linemate and it take time and adaption of all players involve to play at the same rate they are use to.


... Hope it make sense.

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