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# Alternative to draft lottery...

03-04-2012, 06:28 PM
#26
GetCluttered22
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 Originally Posted by Playerwinner In theory is a somewhat good idea but in reality, it isnt that great. Factors like scheduling, how many points the 8th team in your conference has the 8th team in the west has 3 more points then the 8th in the east with 1 less game played, does that mean a team like the islanders who are going to be mathematically eliminated later then Minnesota even though they have less points, explain to me how its good for the team with less points to potentially get say 2 less games to gain points for better picks. Then you have the fact that there are 0 teams eliminated with 17 games left. Even the team that will finish 5th last this year, they might only get say 4 games to decide. This also makes who you play in your last 4 games very important to, 2 teams with even points they each get eliminated with 4 games left 1 team plays colombus- edmonton minnesota, and carolina in those 4 points they get 6 points, the other team gets detroit- boston, rangers, and chicago and this team gets 3 points, so how would that be fair to the team whos last few games are vs playoffs teams they finish with less points is it fair to decide who gets a better reward by who is the best of the worst? or by luck, and factors they have no control over.
This. The difference in the points between conferences is huge. Using excel to determine how many games before a team would mathematically be eliminated this season by extrapolating current winning percentages. Then using the remaining games and again extrapolating current winning percentages to determine how many post elimination points each team would get would result in the draft being:

This season

Proposed System Draft Order: Cbj, Edm, Mon, Ana, Car, Min, Cal, Col, Nyi, LA, Tor

Current System Draft Order: Cbj, Edm, Mon, Car, Nyi, Ana, Min, Tor, Buf, TB, Cal

03-04-2012, 08:47 PM
#27
Miller Time
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 Originally Posted by IdealisticSniper Wait so if Im reading this right, if Team A gets mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in the beginning of March, they start accumulating points. Team B gets eliminated end of March and they start getting points. That gives Team A almost a month more of games to get points to "win" the top pick?

that's somewhat the beauty of it, in that it still gives the weakest teams the best "odds", or at least the best opportunity, to still end up with a high draft pick.

Team A (Columbus this year), would have a lot more games to collect points from than team B (say Washington getting eliminated with 2-3 games left), and would thus be much more likely to end up with a much higher pick... not totally unlike the current lottery system.

difference is that it gives Team A not only incentive, but almost necessity, to continue competing hard until the last day of the season... and it gives their fan base something "positive" to cheer for (and a reason to stay interested in following/attending the games), instead of the "negative" cheering for continued losing in order to get a better lottery shot.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by StrongIslanders90 what about a team thats in it untill the last day? they dont have a chance at the top pick but played well enough not to be mathamatically eliminated on the last day... Does not make sense to me....
team that is in it until the last day right now basically has no shot at the top pick either... so no real difference there.

the last few teams to get eliminated are in a dog fight for the playoffs anyways, so this system would do nothing to change their "competing"... but it would potentially make that last 2-3 games far far more interesting, as opposed to ending in a complete downer, the eliminated team could theoretically have a shot at making a jump in the draft order (and with the current system, there are often 4-5+ teams still vying for playoff spots heading into the last few games of the season).

instead of getting eliminated with 2 games left, and then having 2 meaningless games to end the season, those last 2 games could end up being the difference btw 4-5 spots in the draft...

 03-04-2012, 08:52 PM #28 Tiger Blood Registered User   Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Brantford, ON Country: Posts: 257 vCash: 500 This idea is just ridiculous. There's a reason the worst teams in the standings are at the bottom. All this would do is continually give the 9th or 10th place teams the best player in the draft every year.
03-04-2012, 08:57 PM
#29
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 Originally Posted by Tiger Blood This idea is just ridiculous. There's a reason the worst teams in the standings are at the bottom. All this would do is continually give the 9th or 10th place teams the best player in the draft every year.
No, it would not.

The worst team in the league will most likely be mathematically eliminated far earlier than the 9th/10th place teams, who may even be eliminated on the last day of the season.

Don't call an idea ridiculous before you actually think about it.

03-04-2012, 09:16 PM
#30
Ragamuffin Gunner
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 Originally Posted by 5RingsAndABeer If you're one of the idiots that still thinks teams actually tank, how would this change help? Teams would tank until they are eliminated from the playoffs and then stop tanking. Teams that legitimately suck would suck before and after being eliminated...so this change would actually benefit these fictitious teams that tank.
lol, this is what I was thinking.

"I can't believe they tanked the middle of the season then won the last 3 games of the season to get the 1st pick!!!!!!"

 03-05-2012, 02:11 PM #31 FaceWasher Registered User   Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 36 vCash: 500 Hi everybody! :¬) Be still my heart! What fun! Oh the competition and excitement one may experience when the NHL Network annually televises the unveiling of the draft lottery results. NHL executives in a league office figuratively pick names out of a hat to determine the draft position winners/losers while 4 representatives of 4 teams sit behind a table. And what disappointment we see in some of the representatives of the worst team with the worst record and the greatest weighted odds of winning learns his team has lost the first pick, or has lost the first and second pick, or has lost the first, second and third pick. The draft lottery means Lady Luck falls on the winner, or disses the worst team. A draft lottery does not guarantee the first pick to the worst team! Meanwhile, in another universe that has adopted and implemented a system of determining draft order by games won following mathematical elimination, the paying customer has decided to buy a ticket to watch his favorite hockey team fight and skate for a win to earn the top draft pick. Yes, mathematical elimination determines draft positions by the performance of players on the ice. Forwards, defensemen, goalies, line combinations, line match-ups, shift changes, trainers, penalties (referees and linesmen), condition of the ice, the boards, the fans, the coaches - all are factors that contribute to a win or a loss on the ice. Competition! Competition vs. Lady Luck? Winning vs. Tanking? What's to discuss? I'll have more to say later about the idea of determining draft positions by winning following mathematical elimination.
 03-05-2012, 02:14 PM #32 FaceWasher Registered User   Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 36 vCash: 500 The 3/5/12 morning standings of the NHL reveal only 5 of 30 teams with more losses than wins. Expressed differently, these 5 teams have standing points that are below the number of games they have played. Moreover, at this time, there are only 4 teams that are not in a cluster of teams that have enough points to remain in contention for a playoff position. In the Western Conference, San Jose is 8th with 73 points. Los Angeles with 72 points, Colorado with 72 points, Calgary with 70 points, Anaheim with 66 points, and Minnesota with 66 points all have a reasonable chance of making the 8-team playoffs by outplaying San Jose, with 73 points, and maybe Dallas with 75 points. Thus, there is a 7-team race for the seventh and eight playoff slots in the Western Conference. For the detractors claiming teams would tank earlier in the season in order to have more games to play to earn points following mathematical elimination, I would ask which of the 7 Western Conference teams still in the race should begin to tank with 15 to 18 games to play in the regular season? Reviewing the NHL’s Eastern Conference, there are only 2 of 15 teams that may not have enough points to remain in competition for the playoffs, Montreal with 60 points, and Carolina with 62 points. Winnipeg is the current eighth-place team with 70 points. Washington with 69 points, Tampa Bay and Buffalo each with 68 points, Toronto with 67 points, and the NY Islanders with 65 points all are within distance of earning a playoff spot. Thus, there is currently a six-team race for the eighth place playoff position. Again, I ask which of these six teams should begin to tank with 16 to 17 games to play in the regular season? More later.
 03-05-2012, 02:15 PM #33 Fehr Time* The Don of Hockey   Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,787 vCash: 500 Eliminate the draft and be done with it. Let the players decide whee they want to play. If this means a young Crosby calibre player gets a \$20 million personal services contract at 14 years of age then even better.
 03-05-2012, 02:15 PM #34 ZetterBurger Registered User     Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Detroit, MI Country: Posts: 6,211 vCash: 500 Just give every team that missed the playoffs the same number of ping pong balls. That way there is no incentive to "tank". Also, I understand people sarcastically say team tank, but you better believe the players want to win every game. However, I have seen a trend with some team to infuse their lineup with youth once they are out, and they lose because management doesn't really put the best team on the ice. At the same time, these players are getting valuable minutes in the NHL with nothing to lose. No teams tank, but some certainly give up on the playoffs and look to the future.
 03-05-2012, 02:15 PM #35 IceDaddy BostonStrong     Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: South Shore Country: Posts: 3,907 vCash: 500 yea go tell CBJ, Edm and The Habs that they have to start winning or they dont get a good pick. There is a reason they are the worst teams, they should be entitled to the best picks. Its a bad idea IMO The top pick should go to the worst team. I dont even like the lottery(unless The Habs win it this year)
03-05-2012, 02:16 PM
#36
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 Originally Posted by HabsRock yea go tell CBJ, Edm and The Habs that hty have to start winning or they dont get a good pick. its a bad idea IMO The top pick should go to the worst team. I dont even like the lottery(unless The Habs win it this year)
Every team that misses the playoffs should get the same odds.

 03-05-2012, 02:18 PM #37 OilerFan4Life Registered User   Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Heartland of Hockey Country: Posts: 4,353 vCash: 500 Why did we never hear whining about tanking until the Oilers started losing? So much whining.
03-05-2012, 02:18 PM
#38
Fehr Time*
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 Originally Posted by HabsRock yea go tell CBJ, Edm and The Habs that hty have to start winning or they dont get a good pick. its a bad idea IMO The top pick should go to the worst team. I dont even like the lottery(unless The Habs win it this year)
I agree. They should be told that.

 03-05-2012, 02:20 PM #39 llamateizer Registered User     Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Montreal Country: Posts: 5,032 vCash: 500 so if a team goes 10-0 and then 0-72 vs 0-40 and then 42-0 and gets the 1st overall pick? lol like someone said, tank the beggining the season and then start winning
03-05-2012, 02:20 PM
#40
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 Originally Posted by OilerFan4Life Why did we never hear whining about tanking until the Oilers started losing? So much whining.
Of course we heard it. Or were the Oilers tanking back when Mario Lemieux was draft-eligible?

Maybe you only started paying attention because of your Oilers affiliation.

 03-05-2012, 02:21 PM #41 FaceWasher Registered User   Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 36 vCash: 500 The decision to tank earlier in the season has to be a directive from the owner of the team, flowing down to the front office and to the head coach. How would the coach and his staff react to such an order? Losing on purpose is not the mission statement of coaches. Losing contradicts the inherent will of the coach to win. Losing is not a positive paragraph on the coach’s resume, not to mention coaches working their way up the ladder of success! Losing on purpose is not in the short-term and long-tem best interests of the coach. A coach with a record of winning would likely consider resigning if told to tank early and often. Thus, the status of the coach will likely be a major factor in preventing a team’s early tanking. When team ownership orders the front office and the coach to tank earlier in the season, the owner is asking the coach and players to turn “the win” switch off with 25% to 30% of the season left. Then once eliminated, the owner wants the coach and players to turn the “win switch” on. Think about this. Players would be asked to curtail their natural instinct to compete aggressively to win. They would be asked to cut the type of individual performance statistics they and their agents want to accumulate for the next contract negotiations, and it could happen during the player’s “contract year”. Asking players to tank performance would have a negative effect upon the next contract earnings of the player. This impact upon the players’ future would prevent the players from lowering their level of play at the whim of the owner. Or worse, the team and coach would “lose” the players and the players would not perform when asked to win later in the season. When the strategy to tank is implemented earlier in the season, there is no guarantee that key injuries will be avoided during the stretch of games following mathematical elimination. Key players could be lost when they are needed the most in order to make the tanking earlier in the season strategy work. Yes, injuries are part of the game, including post-season playoff tournaments. But the injuries could cause the team to have a worse draft position than if the team never tanked.
03-05-2012, 02:24 PM
#42
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 Originally Posted by Fehr Time Eliminate the draft and be done with it. Let the players decide whee they want to play. If this means a young Crosby calibre player gets a \$20 million personal services contract at 14 years of age then even better.

yea, then all the good players would end up on the original 6 teams or a handfull of other teams and teams like Carolina, Nashville and CBJ would have even worse teams than they do now.

03-05-2012, 02:25 PM
#43
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 Originally Posted by HabsRock yea, then all the good players would end up on the original 6 teams or a handfull of other teams and teams like Carolina, Nashville and CBJ would have even worse teams than they do now.
Quality beats quantity.

03-05-2012, 02:26 PM
#44
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 Originally Posted by ZetterBurger Every team that misses the playoffs should get the same odds.
so a team who misses the playoffs by 40 points should have the same odds as a team that gets beat out by 1 point??

 03-05-2012, 02:28 PM #45 FaceWasher Registered User   Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 36 vCash: 500 Once the team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the team no longer can trade because the single trade deadline for all teams is eliminated and replaced with an individual team trade deadline based upon the date a team makes the playoff or the date a team is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The team would not be able to trade to improve its roster and improve its chances of winning in the games following elimination, or to move players to cut salary. Tanking earlier in the season would cause the team to lose the right to trade much earlier in the season.
 03-05-2012, 02:32 PM #46 Islanders1932 Registered User     Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Long Island Country: Posts: 4,031 vCash: 500 I understand what this is saying. Basically the first teams eliminated would have more time to rack up wins to retain the #1 overall pick. However there are a few problems I see with it. The reason the team is in last place to begin with is because they can't win. So even if they have more games to try to win, the fact is they don't win. I feel like this would just give teams who are in the 11-12th seed a chance to score the #1 overall pick more easily which would keep those teams at the bottom continually who aren't getting better because they can't get that #1 overall pick. The way the system is now gives teams who suck a chance to eventually be good again. That's the way it should be.
 03-05-2012, 02:32 PM #47 OilerTyler Fire Krueger     Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Edmonton Country: Posts: 9,280 vCash: 50 People are forgetting that the NHL is a business. While some teams (like the Oilers or Habs) can suck and still make money, others can't. By reducing the odds of these bad teams getting high draft picks, you are making it harder for them to become succesful both in the standings and financially. Where would the Penguins and Blackhawks be today if it weren't for the current draft system? Probably in Seattle and Quebec City. Every terrible team deserves a chance to build a contender through high draft picks and develop a fan base.
03-05-2012, 02:33 PM
#48
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 Originally Posted by GetCluttered22 This. The difference in the points between conferences is huge. Using excel to determine how many games before a team would mathematically be eliminated this season by extrapolating current winning percentages. Then using the remaining games and again extrapolating current winning percentages to determine how many post elimination points each team would get would result in the draft being: This season Proposed System Draft Order: Cbj, Edm, Mon, Ana, Car, Min, Cal, Col, Nyi, LA, Tor Current System Draft Order: Cbj, Edm, Mon, Car, Nyi, Ana, Min, Tor, Buf, TB, Cal
Um... the lottery has not happened. You really don't know which team will have the luck of being drawn out of the hat.

You are trying, and I respect that. But the draft order based upon games won and OTs cannot be determined until the last game has been played. Competition down to the last horn, and a reason for a customer to buy a ticket to see his or her team try to win rather than pass up the game because he or she don't want to pay to watch a game that did not matter.

But... you are right in noting there will be a difference in draft order!

03-05-2012, 02:35 PM
#49
5RingsAndABeer
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 Originally Posted by ZetterBurger Just give every team that missed the playoffs the same number of ping pong balls. That way there is no incentive to "tank". Also, I understand people sarcastically say team tank, but you better believe the players want to win every game. However, I have seen a trend with some team to infuse their lineup with youth once they are out, and they lose because management doesn't really put the best team on the ice. At the same time, these players are getting valuable minutes in the NHL with nothing to lose. No teams tank, but some certainly give up on the playoffs and look to the future.
This is a terrible idea. The worst teams in the NHL are much worse than borderline playoff teams. The NBA doesn't even do it equally - and in that league if you aren't one of the few contenders, you have virtually no chance of winning it. Go compare the Vegas odds for the NHL vs the NBA championships if you don't believe me.

I don't know how many times I've had to type that.

03-05-2012, 02:36 PM
#50
Fehr Time*
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 Originally Posted by OilerTyler People are forgetting that the NHL is a business. While some teams (like the Oilers or Habs) can suck and still make money, others can't. By reducing the odds of these bad teams getting high draft picks, you are making it harder for them to become succesful both in the standings and financially. Where would the Penguins and Blackhawks be today if it weren't for the current draft system? Probably in Seattle and Quebec City. Every terrible team deserves a chance to build a contender through high draft picks and develop a fan base.
Chicago would not move anywhere, and what Pittsburgh would have done is irrelevant. Many of us fans do not care about a bunch of greedy owners and how much money they make. We want to see the best of the best compete with/against each other. If teams with loser management cannot attract great young players to their team without an unfair draft system then tough luck. Move, fold, or find another league to play in. Just stop whining.

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