Fil was overpaid his first two years. They basically got a $1.5 MM player for a $3 MM cap hit. He has vastly improved though, so that THIS year a $3MM cap hit would be an underpayment relative to current market, though Fil's actualy pay mirrors his actual value far more closely. KH tries to find the center line between the actual values if he believes that number is going to fluctuate.
Cleary was not overpaid in terms of what you pay your #4-7 forwards. #1-3 are in the $5-7 MM range.
I know what you're trying to get at, but Fil was slotted in as the third line center for those earlier years as well. If you recall, I griped that for that kind of money, he needed to be in the top six, and since he's not a better center than Z, he should be a winger.
He always played 'top 6 minutes' though. His production vs. Cleary's production is incredibly similar, and seeing that centers seem to get more money than wingers and Filppula was younger, it worked. Cleary has been a warrior for this team, but so has Filppula.
Filppula has scored 33 pts in 46 playoff games over 3 playoffs,
Cleary has scored 23 pts in 46 playoff games over the same 3 playoffs
Yet Cleary is a playoff warrior earning his paycheck and Filppula is failing to earn his contract in Fugu's eyes.
cmon Fugu I understand you were always on the Pro-Hudler side of the Flip-Hudler debates, but looking at it in finer detail you gotta think that Flip at least earned his contract. Remember there is a difference between earning and outperforming. I think we as fans witnessing the recent pre-lifetime Zetterberg and Franzen contracts have gotten accustomed to thinking that a player has to grossly outperform his cap hit in order to be earning his deal or have signed a good deal.
He always played 'top 6 minutes' though. His production vs. Cleary's production is incredibly similar, and seeing that centers seem to get more money than wingers and Filppula was younger, it worked. Cleary has been a warrior for this team, but so has Filppula.
This is especially important to detroit and cannot be overlooked, the system the wings have employed for the past 20 years is extremely dependent on the centres, much more so than wingers, so in Holland and the front office's eyes, the centre is always the more valuable player and thus worth more dollar wise
Jussha. Read my post again. I said Fil is probably underpaid at the moment in terms of cap hit. In terms of actual salary, he's probably close to market value.
My comments were about his cap hit when he started the current contract, which iirc, is in year 4 of a 5 yr deal, no?
Jussha. Read my post again. I said Fil is probably underpaid at the moment in terms of cap hit. In terms of actual salary, he's probably close to market value.
My comments were about his cap hit when he started the current contract, which iirc, is in year 4 of a 5 yr deal, no?
i get what your saying Fugu, that's why i posted comparables with bigger cap hits and their year by year performance, and ended by asking what type of production you expect him to get in each of those years to be a 3 million dollar cap hit player?
look at year 1
40 pts regular season, 16 pts playoffs
is that earning a 3 million dollar cap hit?
if you look at comparable players in the NHL that aren't on ELCs, that is earning a 3 million dollar cap hit.
you said cleary earned his cap hit
the same season where i posted Flip's numbers
cleary got 40 pts regular season in 6 less games and 15 pts in the playoffs
as centers are more valuable in the detroit system, how is cleary earning his cap hit but Flip not in the 1st year of his deal?
I'd say at most flip might have not earned his cap hit by like $250,000, but every year after has been either earning or outperforming his cap hit
In year 2 of his deal he had the best production of the first 3 years of that deal at 35 pts in 55 games,
how can he be overpaid in year 2 in your mind but not year 3, how is 35 pts in 55 games not earning a 3 million dollar cap hit?
as i said earlier, outside of players on ELC, name me players who make similar coin outperforming Flip?
Because I look at where guys slotted in to the rest of the team. It's not just how much he tallied but how the other guys on the team did. We had a lot of guys ahead of Fil in scoring in 08 and 09.
I also wanted him in the top six as a winger to justify that salary.
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Originally Posted by Heaton
He always played 'top 6 minutes' though. His production vs. Cleary's production is incredibly similar, and seeing that centers seem to get more money than wingers and Filppula was younger, it worked. Cleary has been a warrior for this team, but so has Filppula.
You can't say that his production and role is similar, but then pay him more because he's younger. Either they're a comparable value, or they're not. Roles were comparable, IT, production. Furthermore Fil is being used as winger to finally achieve his production target. Another difference was UFA vs RFA status. UFAs are supposed to cost more than your RFAs. So KH pre-paid on a couple years to get a benefit on the back end. If we end up with a Filppula this year and next that would make him a $5 MM+ player, then the strategy worked. If he only just grew into the current contract, then KH clearly didn't get much from it and all that mangling of numbers was for naught.
@Jussha. I put his ceiling exactly where Ken Holland said it would be. A 70 pts per year player. The best he's ever done is before this year is 40 pts. Like 4 yrs worth of 35-40 pts. He's at 53 pts now, which annualized would be 66 pts. Or a 65% increase over his best ever. That's pretty significant--- and a very far cry from the 4 yrs we all thought he'd take to get there (or at least closer to that target).
i get what your saying Fugu, that's why i posted comparables with bigger cap hits and their year by year performance, and ended by asking what type of production you expect him to get in each of those years to be a 3 million dollar cap hit player?
look at year 1
40 pts regular season, 16 pts playoffs
is that earning a 3 million dollar cap hit?
if you look at comparable players in the NHL that aren't on ELCs, that is earning a 3 million dollar cap hit.
you said cleary earned his cap hit
the same season where i posted Flip's numbers
cleary got 40 pts regular season in 6 less games and 15 pts in the playoffs
as centers are more valuable in the detroit system, how is cleary earning his cap hit but Flip not in the 1st year of his deal?
I'd say at most flip might have not earned his cap hit by like $250,000, but every year after has been either earning or outperforming his cap hit
Right, but you can't cherry pick comparables. You have to find everyone in that range, then adjust for when the contracts were handed out as well. If you were going to arbitration, you couldn't pull out salaries from 4 yrs ago but would have to use current data as well. Neither of us has time for that, I imagine. Furthermore, Filppula was mostly judged against his peers in Detroit during 'our' debates.
Regarding Cleary and Fil specifically, you'd have to consider the IT (which started favoring Fil 3yrs ago? Maybe 2, at a minimum). I also look at cap hit and then actual pay. Filppula was paid $2, 2.5, and then 3.5 MM starting last year through next year. Cleary was at $2.5 MM x 2, then 3 yrs at $3 MM. Basically, you have one year where Fil is paid less, then he's up by half million dollars. This is the first time Fil has blown him out of the water. Last year, Cleary notching 26 goals (or more than anyone not named Franzen) should mean he blew Fil out of the water.
Both have had injury issues and similar games lost.
i get what your saying Fugu, that's why i posted comparables with bigger cap hits and their year by year performance, and ended by asking what type of production you expect him to get in each of those years to be a 3 million dollar cap hit player?
look at year 1
40 pts regular season, 16 pts playoffs
is that earning a 3 million dollar cap hit?
if you look at comparable players in the NHL that aren't on ELCs, that is earning a 3 million dollar cap hit.
you said cleary earned his cap hit
the same season where i posted Flip's numbers
cleary got 40 pts regular season in 6 less games and 15 pts in the playoffs
as centers are more valuable in the detroit system, how is cleary earning his cap hit but Flip not in the 1st year of his deal?
I'd say at most flip might have not earned his cap hit by like $250,000, but every year after has been either earning or outperforming his cap hit
Perhaps the more profound conclusion to come from this won't be that I admit Fil has earned his pay if I say Cleary has earned his, but that in a thread about Cleary being worthless, we find out that his closest comparison on the Wings has been Filppula, who makes more money in terms of cap hit and actual pay.
Fil was overpaid his first two years. They basically got a $1.5 MM player for a $3 MM cap hit.
Enh. You're underrating defense and position here, and then still dropping the ball in terms of production.
In Fil's first two seasons under his new deal he had 23 goals and 52 assists in 135 games. In an 82 game season that's 14 goals and 32 assists... and he played very little on the PP overall (47 seconds in his full season, 2:27 in his injury shortened one).
And he was good in the circle (52.1 and 51.6%).
And he played solid defense.
A 3 mil contract even for that level of production is completely and totally fair. He produced as much as Cleary, played a tougher position, had inferior linemates, got less PP time and was better defensively and I don't recall hearing you mention Cleary's deal being an overpay in years 1 and 2, did you?
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Cleary was not overpaid in terms of what you pay your #4-7 forwards. #1-3 are in the $5-7 MM range.
That logic is awful, because it's not what the guy is expected to be but what he actually is which determines whether he is overpaid or not. The idea that Fil was overpaid at 3 but Cleary was fairly paid at 2.8 when Fil was better pretty much across the board strains credulity.
Which is why, at the time, I thought that Cleary was overpaid by 250-500k and a year or two. And why I liked the Bert and Homer deals more than you. And why I liked the cheap dmen more than you did.
You can't just slot salary and role and then forget about it. It's much more individual than that.
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I know what you're trying to get at, but Fil was slotted in as the third line center for those earlier years as well.
That's partially untrue. Yes, in 2008-9 he was bumped down to the third line... but that was just because of Hossa's one year here and hardly an indictment of Fil's role on the team at that time. In 2008 he was the clear #2 center.
2008:
41.16% EV 13 DATSYUK,PAVEL - 96 HOLMSTROM,TOMAS - 40 ZETTERBERG,HENRIK
^^ That means you can't be the #2 center when you're playing nearly a majority of your time with the #1 center.
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If you recall, I griped that for that kind of money, he needed to be in the top six, and since he's not a better center than Z, he should be a winger.
He makes 200k more than Cleary and 125k more than Hudler, neither guy has been able to hold a top 6 job consistently, neither guy has outproduced Fil over the period of time you're expressing concern about (despite having substantially more desirable linemates and/or types of IT), neither guy is a center, and neither guy is as good defensively as Fil.
Also, neither guy had their contracts questioned by you.
You can't say that his production and role is similar, but then pay him more because he's younger. Either they're a comparable value, or they're not. Roles were comparable, IT, production. Furthermore Fil is being used as winger to finally achieve his production target. Another difference was UFA vs RFA status. UFAs are supposed to cost more than your RFAs. So KH pre-paid on a couple years to get a benefit on the back end. If we end up with a Filppula this year and next that would make him a $5 MM+ player, then the strategy worked. If he only just grew into the current contract, then KH clearly didn't get much from it and all that mangling of numbers was for naught.
Why not? Filppula had and has waaaaaay more upside than Cleary ever did when they signed their contracts. The year he signed his deal he scored 40pts in the regular season and 16pts in the playoffs. 200k makes that year overpaid and Cleary underpaid/fairly paid? I don't think so.
You can't say that his production and role is similar, but then pay him more because he's younger.
So you can't consider age when assigning contract value? That seems odd.
IMO is a guy is 32 coming off a good year and a guy is 25 coming off a good year, I'm more like to think the guy who is 25 has some potential either for improvement or at the least be more likely to maintain his level of production. At 32 you have to start looing at candles on birthday cakes and then start wondering when the slide will start.
Why not? Filppula had and has waaaaaay more upside than Cleary ever did when they signed their contracts. The year he signed his deal he scored 40pts in the regular season and 16pts in the playoffs. 200k makes that year overpaid and Cleary underpaid/fairly paid? I don't think so.
It's a big problem Fugu has historically had in trying to figure out a way to make the Cleary deal fair but still be able to complain about the Bert and Fil (and probably other) deals.
At this point Cleary's pretty much doing what we'd expect Pat Eaves to do... he just makes 233% more. Heck, he's only 6 total points (3 at ES) north of Drew Miller and that dude's a scrub. He's 2 ES goals and 6 ES points more productive than Abdelkader.
Do those guys both merit almost 2.8 mil a year now, too?
In hindsight, Cleary's been a ~2 mil player for Detroit. His post-contract average is 20 goals and 26 assists in an 82 game season... which would be fine until we remember Cleary's played 74, 64 and 68 games in those first three full years instead. In terms of actual production we're talking 18 goals and 22 assists.
It's really hard to try and squirm around to have that somehow come out to '2.8 mil' in the valu-o-meter, yet still be able to say what she's said about other guys who in some cases did as much but made a lot less, or who did a lot more and got paid almost the same.
I have not complained about Bert. HD, you gotta give that one up, dude. You're in fantasy land with Bert and me. I've always liked him. Remember my 'We Need Grit' campaign and when KH traded for Bert. I was HAPPY.
That said, I came back to say, okay, now that we've established that Fil and Cleary earned their paychecks for 20-ish G, 40 pts.....
Sammy, Bert and Homer were steals. Robberies. Grand Theft.
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD
So you can't consider age when assigning contract value? That seems odd.
IMO is a guy is 32 coming off a good year and a guy is 25 coming off a good year, I'm more like to think the guy who is 25 has some potential either for improvement or at the least be more likely to maintain his level of production. At 32 you have to start looing at candles on birthday cakes and then start wondering when the slide will start.
You may qualify it on that basis. Heaton did not.
What one could have argued is that KH paid one guy what his going rate was at the time of the signing, but that the RFA was paid on potential.
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD
Do those guys both merit almost 2.8 mil a year now, too?
In hindsight, Cleary's been a ~2 mil player for Detroit. His post-contract average is 20 goals and 26 assists in an 82 game season... which would be fine until we remember Cleary's played 74, 64 and 68 games in those first three full years instead. In terms of actual production we're talking 18 goals and 22 assists.
It's really hard to try and squirm around to have that somehow come out to '2.8 mil' in the valu-o-meter, yet still be able to say what she's said about other guys who in some cases did as much but made a lot less, or who did a lot more and got paid almost the same.
No one is squirming. What's Filppula's value using that same hindsight of yours, HD? Or Hudler's?
What about Zetterberg?
And it's really a low blow to think a GM can predict who will or won't play an 82 game season. That's why it's fair to use 'rates of scoring' not your effort to bamboozle the issue.
Why not? Filppula had and has waaaaaay more upside than Cleary ever did when they signed their contracts. The year he signed his deal he scored 40pts in the regular season and 16pts in the playoffs. 200k makes that year overpaid and Cleary underpaid/fairly paid? I don't think so.
Cherry picking again. Are you capable of discussing the entire term of Fil's contract or just the years you like?
Filppula was pegged to be a 60-70 pt guy two seasons ago by our GM, you know, that guy you defend to the death.
What is truly incredible is that we have 4-5 yrs of solid data on all these players, but people still want to talk about potential. Maybe that's what KH had to pay out to keep those players, which is a market factor, but if you lay out actual results, side by side by side, it's not that difficult to see who has met their obligations, who has overachieved and who has been overpaid for any portion of the entire tenure.
Perhaps the more profound conclusion to come from this won't be that I admit Fil has earned his pay if I say Cleary has earned his, but that in a thread about Cleary being worthless, we find out that his closest comparison on the Wings has been Filppula, who makes more money in terms of cap hit and actual pay.
Cherry picking again. Are you capable of discussing the entire term of Fil's contract or just the years you like?
Cherry picking? Filppula has earned every single year of his contract and this year he's blowing the contract away. In fact, based on other contracts in the league, the very first year of his contract he surpassed the value.
If Filppula scored 60 or 70pts per year on a 3m cap hit it would be one of the best contracts in the entire league.
Cherry picking? Filppula has earned every single year of his contract and this year he's blowing the contract away. In fact, based on other contracts in the league, the very first year of his contract he surpassed the value.
If Filppula scored 60 or 70pts per year on a 3m cap hit it would be one of the best contracts in the entire league.
Look up Zetterberg pre-2008-09.
He has not blown anything away. He's been a 40 pts maximum player for three consecutive years of the five year contract. Finally, in the 4th yr, he may reach 60+ and you want to declare this the best contract ever? Really?
What about the other 40-45 pts guys then? Were they steals?
I'd enjoy seeing your list of salaries for players who score 20G/40 pts for three years. You want to take the best year out of four and use that as the basis for the entire term. Come on.
He has not blown anything away. He's been a 40 pts maximum player for three consecutive years of the five year contract. Finally, in the 4th yr, he may reach 60+ and you want to declare this the best contract ever? Really?
What about the other 40-45 pts guys then? Were they steals?
I'd enjoy seeing your list of salaries for players who score 20G/40 pts for three years. You want to take the best year out of four and use that as the basis for the entire term. Come on.
I'm really not going to address the majority of this post as it is irrelevant to my point from the beginning. The post I first quoted was of you saying that Cleary has earned his contract for the entirety while Filppula hasn't. I disagreed and now we're getting way off base.
The Filppula and Cleary contracts have been almost identical in terms of production and value. Filppula will obviously hit the best year out of these two contracts seeing as he's younger and will have a much higher peak than Cleary due to circumstances.
I never said it was the best contract ever or even a great contract, I've merely stated that you cannot say Cleary earned his and Filppula has not, at any time of their respective deals.
One last thing, where are you making all of these quotes up from? I never said any of these deals were steals, I never said Filppula had a great contract, I never said Cleary had a bad contract. They were both fair contracts at any time anyone wants to look at it. And when I said 'If Filppula socres 60 or 70 points' I was referring to the entirety of the deal, not one singular season.
He has not blown anything away. He's been a 40 pts maximum player for three consecutive years of the five year contract. Finally, in the 4th yr, he may reach 60+ and you want to declare this the best contract ever? Really?
What about the other 40-45 pts guys then? Were they steals?
I'd enjoy seeing your list of salaries for players who score 20G/40 pts for three years. You want to take the best year out of four and use that as the basis for the entire term. Come on.
This is what I have been trying to stress in my points to you Fugu. You can't compare to the Zetterberg contract because that 4 year deal 2.75 million cap hit contract is one of the best contracts in the history of the NHL and probably the best contract signed post lock out. No contract will look good compared to that.
Now Heaton probably exaggerated calling the filppula contract a steal.
I'd say the 1st three years of his deal he earned his cap hit. No steal, no overpayment, just earning his value, as 40 pt players in the NHL get 3 million dollar cap hits. In year 4, he is a steal, if he continues to do so in year 5, he will be a steal again and thus been a steal with regards to his cap hit for 2 years of the 5 and earned his cap hit the other 3 years. Overall that is a good contract that Ken Holland signed when looking at it in retrospect.
This is what I have been trying to stress in my points to you Fugu. You can't compare to the Zetterberg contract because that 4 year deal 2.75 million cap hit contract is one of the best contracts in the history of the NHL and probably the best contract signed post lock out. No contract will look good compared to that.
Now Heaton probably exaggerated calling the filppula contract a steal.
I'd say the 1st three years of his deal he earned his cap hit. No steal, no overpayment, just earning his value, as 40 pt players in the NHL get 3 million dollar cap hits. In year 4, he is a steal, if he continues to do so in year 5, he will be a steal again and thus been a steal with regards to his cap hit for 2 years of the 5 and earned his cap hit the other 3 years. Overall that is a good contract that Ken Holland signed when looking at it in retrospect.
But I never called it a steal. Fugu made that part up or didn't understand the context/skimmed it.
I'm really not going to address the majority of this post as it is irrelevant to my point from the beginning. The post I first quoted was of you saying that Cleary has earned his contract for the entirety while Filppula hasn't. I disagreed and now we're getting way off base.
The Filppula and Cleary contracts have been almost identical in terms of production and value. Filppula will obviously hit the best year out of these two contracts seeing as he's younger and will have a much higher peak than Cleary due to circumstances.
I never said it was the best contract ever or even a great contract, I've merely stated that you cannot say Cleary earned his and Filppula has not, at any time of their respective deals.
I will stand by my point that their production has been equal, but that Filppula has earned more, so do you see why I don't get what you're saying. They produced equally prior to this year, although Cleary was a bigger goal scoring threat 2 of those four years, inclusive a 26 G campaign. They have not earned equally.
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One last thing, where are you making all of these quotes up from? I never said any of these deals were steals, I never said Filppula had a great contract, I never said Cleary had a bad contract. They were both fair contracts at any time anyone wants to look at it. And when I said 'If Filppula socres 60 or 70 points' I was referring to the entirety of the deal, not one singular season.
Do you guys have trouble reading my posts? Where did I attribute that you? Those were my words. In fact, I was being borderline serious.
Noted on the "if". Seems no one is reading anyone's posts, just jumping on their favorite parts.
So what about this part:
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Originally Posted by Fugu
Perhaps the more profound conclusion to come from this won't be that I admit Fil has earned his pay if I say Cleary has earned his, but that in a thread about Cleary being worthless, we find out that his closest comparison on the Wings has been Filppula, who makes more money in terms of cap hit and actual pay.
I will stand by my point that their production has been equal, but that Filppula has earned more, so do you see why I don't get what you're saying. They produced equally prior to this year, although Cleary was a bigger goal scoring threat 2 of those four years, inclusive a 26 G campaign. They have not earned equally.
Well you seem to be ignoring potential. Cleary's caphit was 2.8, Filppula's was 3.0 who is/was a center.
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Originally Posted by Fugu
I didn't make anything up. I was the one claiming those other contracts must be steals if Cleary and Fil at their rates were fabulous.
They were good to average deals, nothing more, nothing less. I never said anything different in any post.
