HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > The History of Hockey
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
The History of Hockey Relive great moments in hockey history and discuss how the game has changed over time.

The scoring explosion after 1967 expansion

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
03-05-2012, 07:03 PM
  #1
Al Bundy*
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 5,073
vCash: 500
The scoring explosion after 1967 expansion

Between the 1967 expansion and the dead puck era of the mid-to-late 1990s, scoring was more frequent and productive in terms of goals scored, big time point production by players, and especially 100 point seasons.

Remember, we did not have the first 100-point season by a player until Phil Esposito did it in 1969. It took nearly 50 seasons until Espo broke the triple-digit barrier and obviously we never looked back, as 100-point seasons soon became the norm rather than the exception.

Obviously, the offenses went higher and higher into the 1970s peaked in the 1980s, and eventually leveled off in the 1990s up until the lockout.

Why exactly did offense in the NHL go up big-time after expansion? Was it solely expansion? Remember, the NHL had zero expansion teams in the 1980s and scoring was through the roof.

Al Bundy* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 07:29 PM
  #2
darkhorse686
Registered User
 
darkhorse686's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 143
vCash: 500
No expert here but I think part of the reason was that while offensive strategies got more and more sophisticated, goalkeeping was largely unchanged. There were no goalie coaches until maybe the early 90's so there was lack development in the position. And the equipment was very small until the early 90's when goalkeepers began to look like the Michelen Man. Before that equipment shielded you but didn't fill the net.

The other reason I think was that defensive play went in decline. I'm not sure why. Maybe the idea of guys hitting 100 pts while scoring 50 goals sounded so great that everybody, including defenders, wanted to get in on the act so teams became more focused on trying to win games with shootouts rather than close-checking affairs. I don't think it's a coincedence that high-scoring games became common as Bobby Orr's career progressed; he proved that defenders could contribute alot on offense (before his day, defenders did little more than look after their own end). That's why there quite a few high-scoring defensemen in the 70's like Brad Park, Denis Potvin, and Ian Turnbull.

Again, I'm not an expert but that's my take on it.

darkhorse686 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 07:42 PM
  #3
TheDevilMadeMe
Global Moderator
 
TheDevilMadeMe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Brooklyn
Country: United States
Posts: 41,608
vCash: 500
Historically, when the talent pool thins out, scoring tends to increase. The highest scoring seasons in NHL history before expansion were 1944 and 1945 when a large part of the league's talent were off serving during World War 2. Scoring dropped back to normal as talent came back.

The 1967 expansion doubled the size of the league without increasing the talent pool, so the gap between the best and worst players grew.

IMO, the influx of European and American talent is part of the reason league scoring has decreased in recent years.

Trends in coaching and style of play (partly influenced by Bobby Orr and partly influenced by the European skill game) were especially important in the late 70s and early 80s

TheDevilMadeMe is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 07:54 PM
  #4
VanIslander
Hope for better 2015
 
VanIslander's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 19,169
vCash: 500
Imagine if the best of the WHA and internationals (Soviets, Czechs mostly, some Swedes, couple of Finns) actually played in the expansion era of the 1970s. What a huge difference that could have made. How would Orr have done? Would the Flyers have bruised their way to two cups? Would the Habs have been a dynasty with their line-up versus some teams they faced with added talent from elsewhere at the time? It was a fragmented era in terms of talent.

VanIslander is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 07:59 PM
  #5
kdb209
Global Moderator
 
kdb209's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 12,700
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SomerHimpson View Post
Between the 1967 expansion and the dead puck era of the mid-to-late 1990s, scoring was more frequent and productive in terms of goals scored, big time point production by players, and especially 100 point seasons.

Remember, we did not have the first 100-point season by a player until Phil Esposito did it in 1969. It took nearly 50 seasons until Espo broke the triple-digit barrier and obviously we never looked back, as 100-point seasons soon became the norm rather than the exception.

Obviously, the offenses went higher and higher into the 1970s peaked in the 1980s, and eventually leveled off in the 1990s up until the lockout.

Why exactly did offense in the NHL go up big-time after expansion? Was it solely expansion? Remember, the NHL had zero expansion teams in the 1980s and scoring was through the roof.
Also contributing to the increase in player stats - an ~15-17% increase in the length of the regular season post expansion. The NHL regular season grew from 70 games (1950-1967) to 74, 76, 78, and then 80 games by '74-'75, and finally to the current 82 games in '95-'96 (including 84 games with 2 neutral site games in '92 & '93).

kdb209 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 08:55 PM
  #6
Dark Shadows
Registered User
 
Dark Shadows's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Canada
Country: Japan
Posts: 7,972
vCash: 500
The largest part of the credit goes to Bobby Orr and the big bad bruins.

Scoring did not just suddenly skyrocket after expansion as some think. It took years and a bunch of teams willing to allow their defenders more freedom to jump into the play after seeing the effectiveness of Bobby Orr. Granted no other defenseman could match Orr's unique versatility and so no other team's defensemen could help the team approach their offense except for Montreal, who had the big 3 on defense by the mid 70's.

Orr's rushes had the opposing team often scrambling, wondering who the heck they were supposed to be covering because he was so ridiculously mobile and was being followed by 3 forwards. Even if the play ended with a scramble for the puck along the boards, Hodge and Cashman knew their role was to win the puck battle and get it into the slot where Esposito was above a mere mortal. Bucyk was already a superstar in his own right before any of them ever arrived, and got to face lesser defensive assignments targeting him, as well as PP time with Orr and Esposito.

Look at the first few years before expansion and you will see that scoring between 65 and 1970 across the board was not all that different with the exception of Orr and Esposito, who were outliers.

65-66: in a 70 game season(Then prorated to 78 games like 70-71)
Bobby Hull 97 points (108)
Stan Mikita 78 points (87)
Bobby Rousseau 78 points (87)
Jean Beliveau 77 points (86)
Gordie Howe 75 points (84)

Expansion
67-68: 74 game season(Then Prorated to 78 games)
Stan Mikita 87 points (92)
Phil Esposito 84 points (89)
Gordie Howe 82 points (86)
Jean Ratelle 78 points (82)
Rod Gilbert 77 points (81)

69-70: 76 game season (Then prorated to 78)
Bobby Orr 120 points (123)
Phil Esposito 99 points (102)
Stan Mikita 86 points (88)
Phil Goyette 78 points (80)
Walt Tkachuk 77 points (79)

You will note that this season, the next highest scoring defenseman had 44 points.

Even in 70-71, the year 4 Bruins were the top scorers in the league(When they had their strategy just killing even the best teams) you will note that the next 5 best scorers in the league were still at that 1965 level and scoring had not yet started to hop for everyone since everyone was still playing that defense first game. JC Tremblay played a slightly more risky game and ended with 63 points, but Montreal overall still played a very tight defensive game.

Then a noticeable change. Brad Park cracked 17th in scoring in 71-72 with 73 points. Not only that, but the top 3 scorers behind Esposito and Orr were NYR players. Still, it had not quite caught on leaguewide.

Even by 73-74(A season in which Park had a monster season 9th in scoring, but a coaching change had the team a bit off), the majority of the NHL had not yet converted to offense first. The 4 top scoring spots were still taken by Orr's Bruins, but the next 5 after them were still only scoring 82-87 points.

74-75 started to cut a bit more loose. 4 defensemen had over 70 points, and 10 of them had over 56 points. 56 does not sound like a lot, but in 1970 it would have been an eye popping number to score for a defenseman. Not only that, but a record 7 players had over 100 points that season and 12 had over 90. Teams and defensemen were beginning to sacrifice defense for offense. Something that just was not done previously by many teams.

It continued to escalate like that. The seals were an NHL worst with 320 goals against in 1970. Well, the seals still had 316 goals against in 75, but 4 other teams had even worse goals against that year(The capitals 446 goals against being the worst)

By the mid 80's, you were looking at 12 teams giving up around 300-400+ goals a season.

Dark Shadows is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 09:30 PM
  #7
Czech Your Math
Registered User
 
Czech Your Math's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: bohemia
Country: Czech_ Republic
Posts: 3,759
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Historically, when the talent pool thins out, scoring tends to increase. The highest scoring seasons in NHL history before expansion were 1944 and 1945 when a large part of the league's talent were off serving during World War 2. Scoring dropped back to normal as talent came back.

The 1967 expansion doubled the size of the league without increasing the talent pool, so the gap between the best and worst players grew.

IMO, the influx of European and American talent is part of the reason league scoring has decreased in recent years.

Trends in coaching and style of play (partly influenced by Bobby Orr and partly influenced by the European skill game) were especially important in the late 70s and early 80s
I believe this is the correct answer. If there isn't an influx of talent, such as after the fall of the Berlin wall, to offset the increase in number of teams, scoring will generally rise. It makes sense, because one or two dynamic players can create offense, but it takes most or all of a team to defend effectively.

Also, it wasn't a gradual expansion, it was a sudden doubling of the number of teams, with additional expansions not long afterwards.

I don't think the Orr/Bruins factor is that significant, just as the Gretzky/Oilers factor wasn't primarily responsible for the highest scoring seasons post-WWII.

Basically, all of the O6 teams were somewhat dominant after expansion (except hapless Detroit) in comparison to the expansion teams. The futility of the expansion teams also masked what was actually an even larger increase in scoring.

The higher quality players showed, as a group, an increase of 13-20% (depending on metric used) in adjusted points from '67 to '68. I would say 14-15% is about right.

Czech Your Math is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 09:50 PM
  #8
Hockey Outsider
Registered User
 
Hockey Outsider's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,410
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Historically, when the talent pool thins out, scoring tends to increase. The highest scoring seasons in NHL history before expansion were 1944 and 1945 when a large part of the league's talent were off serving during World War 2. Scoring dropped back to normal as talent came back.
There's a very good article from Iain Fyffe regarding this topic - link. Here's an excerpt:

"[The Klein and Reif] argument is that as the league talent level is diluted, the league scoring level will increase. This is true to a point. It seems, however, there is a limit to this rule. So long as there is an amount of appropriate talent available, dilution will cause scoring to increase. But as the two expansions of the 1990's (nine teams added in 10 years) has demonstrated, there is a breaking point.

The runaway expansion of recent years has led to the extreme dilution of the talent in the NHL. Some players in the NHL today would not have even been above-average players in the AHL in the past. There is a limit to how thin you can spread talent, before you start scraping the bottom of the major-league barrel. When you pass this limit, it begins to drive scoring down, rather than up."

Hockey Outsider is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 10:08 PM
  #9
Hardyvan123
tweet@HardyintheWack
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,323
vCash: 500
there are a variety of reasons and it's hard to say what had the most affect but some of the points are expansion of the number of teams from 6-12-14-16 (and the WHA dilution of talent in 73) then up to 21 for the 80 season.

PP% in the late 70's and 80's peaked to close to a 22% success rate up from a below 20% rate in the 60's and has gone down again for a number of reasons (coaching, equipment better skilled players to deploy defensive systems ect).

The Bobby Orr affect (and or Boston/Montreal/NYI/Edmonton super team affect), although it's really hard to say how great it really was as the game has always had stars and great teams in the past.

Each and every season has it's own particular ebb and flow and they are certainly patterns like scoring that can be traced.

Hardyvan123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 10:10 PM
  #10
Czech Your Math
Registered User
 
Czech Your Math's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: bohemia
Country: Czech_ Republic
Posts: 3,759
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
There's a very good article from Iain Fyffe regarding this topic - link. Here's an excerpt:

"[The Klein and Reif] argument is that as the league talent level is diluted, the league scoring level will increase. This is true to a point. It seems, however, there is a limit to this rule. So long as there is an amount of appropriate talent available, dilution will cause scoring to increase. But as the two expansions of the 1990's (nine teams added in 10 years) has demonstrated, there is a breaking point.

The runaway expansion of recent years has led to the extreme dilution of the talent in the NHL. Some players in the NHL today would not have even been above-average players in the AHL in the past. There is a limit to how thin you can spread talent, before you start scraping the bottom of the major-league barrel. When you pass this limit, it begins to drive scoring down, rather than up."
How is 9 teams in 10 years past the breaking point, but immediate doubling the number of teams with additional expansions soon after is not?

Also, the 9 teams in 10 years coincided with the addition of a great deal of European talent which mostly/completely offset the increase in number of teams.

Czech Your Math is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 10:28 PM
  #11
Hardyvan123
tweet@HardyintheWack
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,323
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
There's a very good article from Iain Fyffe regarding this topic - link. Here's an excerpt:

"[The Klein and Reif] argument is that as the league talent level is diluted, the league scoring level will increase. This is true to a point. It seems, however, there is a limit to this rule. So long as there is an amount of appropriate talent available, dilution will cause scoring to increase. But as the two expansions of the 1990's (nine teams added in 10 years) has demonstrated, there is a breaking point.

The runaway expansion of recent years has led to the extreme dilution of the talent in the NHL. Some players in the NHL today would not have even been above-average players in the AHL in the past. There is a limit to how thin you can spread talent, before you start scraping the bottom of the major-league barrel. When you pass this limit, it begins to drive scoring down, rather than up."
since the article was writtten in 2002 and Ian concludes by saying this

Quote:
Diluting the talent level only drives up scoring to a certain extent. Extreme dilution of talent, such as what we have seen over the past decade, actually drives down scoring. So we can add to KR's original thesis. If dilution occurs and scoring does not increase, and there are no rule changes to explain it, then you know that the well of legitimate, major-league talent has run dry.
I wonder if his scope was too narrow here and there are other factors at play particularly the clutch and grab era of the mid to late 90's onward.

Also the number of Canadian born players in 85 and 2002 (who played 40 or more games in those 2 respective years) remained virtually the same 298-304. so virtually all of the increase in the number of players on the additional 9 teams (21-30) came from Europe and the United States.

I think it's too hasty (or perhaps the article was too focused on one topic)to say that expansion has run the talent dry as was the conclusion here in terms of scoring but rather that other factors, ie coaching, goal tending equipment and the increase in talent made it harder to score goals than say earlier in the decade.

note: to be fair the article does only go up to the 2001 season but it's highly unlikely that the numbers are much different.

Hardyvan123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 10:53 PM
  #12
Hardyvan123
tweet@HardyintheWack
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,323
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Shadows View Post
The largest part of the credit goes to Bobby Orr and the big bad bruins.

Scoring did not just suddenly skyrocket after expansion as some think. It took years and a bunch of teams willing to allow their defenders more freedom to jump into the play after seeing the effectiveness of Bobby Orr[/B]. Granted no other defenseman could match Orr's unique versatility and so no other team's defensemen could help the team approach their offense except for Montreal, who had the big 3 on defense by the mid 70's.

Orr's rushes had the opposing team often scrambling, wondering who the heck they were supposed to be covering because he was so ridiculously mobile and was being followed by 3 forwards. Even if the play ended with a scramble for the puck along the boards, Hodge and Cashman knew their role was to win the puck battle and get it into the slot where Esposito was above a mere mortal. Bucyk was already a superstar in his own right before any of them ever arrived, and got to face lesser defensive assignments targeting him, as well as PP time with Orr and Esposito.

Look at the first few years before expansion and you will see that scoring between 65 and 1970 across the board was not all that different with the exception of Orr and Esposito, who were outliers.

65-66: in a 70 game season(Then prorated to 78 games like 70-71)
Bobby Hull 97 points (108)
Stan Mikita 78 points (87)
Bobby Rousseau 78 points (87)
Jean Beliveau 77 points (86)
Gordie Howe 75 points (84)

Expansion
67-68: 74 game season(Then Prorated to 78 games)
Stan Mikita 87 points (92)
Phil Esposito 84 points (89)
Gordie Howe 82 points (86)
Jean Ratelle 78 points (82)
Rod Gilbert 77 points (81)

69-70: 76 game season (Then prorated to 78)
Bobby Orr 120 points (123)
Phil Esposito 99 points (102)
Stan Mikita 86 points (88)
Phil Goyette 78 points (80)
Walt Tkachuk 77 points (79)

You will note that this season, the next highest scoring defenseman had 44 points.

Even in 70-71, the year 4 Bruins were the top scorers in the league(When they had their strategy just killing even the best teams) you will note that the next 5 best scorers in the league were still at that 1965 level and scoring had not yet started to hop for everyone since everyone was still playing that defense first game. JC Tremblay played a slightly more risky game and ended with 63 points, but Montreal overall still played a very tight defensive game.

Then a noticeable change. Brad Park cracked 17th in scoring in 71-72 with 73 points. Not only that, but the top 3 scorers behind Esposito and Orr were NYR players. Still, it had not quite caught on leaguewide.

Even by 73-74(A season in which Park had a monster season 9th in scoring, but a coaching change had the team a bit off), the majority of the NHL had not yet converted to offense first. The 4 top scoring spots were still taken by Orr's Bruins, but the next 5 after them were still only scoring 82-87 points.

74-75 started to cut a bit more loose. 4 defensemen had over 70 points, and 10 of them had over 56 points. 56 does not sound like a lot, but in 1970 it would have been an eye popping number to score for a defenseman. Not only that, but a record 7 players had over 100 points that season and 12 had over 90. Teams and defensemen were beginning to sacrifice defense for offense. Something that just was not done previously by many teams.

It continued to escalate like that. The seals were an NHL worst with 320 goals against in 1970. Well, the seals still had 316 goals against in 75, but 4 other teams had even worse goals against that year(The capitals 446 goals against being the worst)

By the mid 80's, you were looking at 12 teams giving up around 300-400+ goals a season.
while it's true that GPG didn't jump that much right after expansion the second bolded aprt isn't entirely true.

If we look at the top 20 scorers the 20th place scorer had starting in 65 45 points then 51,45. then expansion takes place and the 20th place scorer has 57 then 65 points.

this is easily explained by there being 12 sets of number 1 lines in the league and 12 sets of number 1 PP's ect.

The Bobby Orr and Boston affect is really hard to measure as it hard to separate their rise from the expansion in 71 and 73 (along with the WHA in 73 where league scoring went from

68 2.79 GPG
69 2.98 GPG
70 2.90 GPG
71 3.12 GPG Vancouver and Buffalo are added
72 3.07 GPG
73 3.28 GPG NYI and Atlanta join And WHA
74 3.20 GPG
75 3.43 GPG Washington and Kansas city are added


There is an argument though that Boston helped accelerate the scoring increase much like the Edmonton team in the early 80's as other teams tried to copy there styles since as you ahve noted there wasn't a GPG jump per team from the original expansion.

Hardyvan123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 10:56 PM
  #13
Hockey Outsider
Registered User
 
Hockey Outsider's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,410
vCash: 500
The NHL had six teams from 1943 to 1967. The talent level continued to grow over the next 24 years, however many NHL calibre players were forced to play in minor leagues simply because there weren't enough roster spots available. Thus, the league was able to absorb the six new teams relatively easily. There were 5.80 goals per game during the last five seasons before expansion, and 5.86 goals per game during the first five seasons after expansion. This supports the notion that the quality of the play in the NHL did not become significantly diluted due.

You're right that the NHL became diluted during the 1970s - due to rapid expansion, and due to players leaving for the WHA. This wreaked havoc on the quality of the talent pool in the NHL and, just as the thesis suggests, scoring rose. In the first year after expansion (when there were twelve teams), there were 5.50 GPG. Just seven years later, in 1975, the league had expanded by another six teams (not to mention fourteen competing WHA teams!) and scoring skyrocketed to 6.75 GPG.

====

I think that Iain didn't take into account a significant factor that would impact the decrease in scoring in the 1990s. Many (arguably most) teams starting playing more defensively the mid nineties. All things being equal, even if the talent level stayed the same, this would cause the level of offense in the NHL to decrease.

I'm not saying that the decrease in scoring was entirely due to coaching strategy, but that certainly played a part in it.

Hockey Outsider is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 11:16 PM
  #14
Czech Your Math
Registered User
 
Czech Your Math's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: bohemia
Country: Czech_ Republic
Posts: 3,759
vCash: 500
These are some top players' change in adjusted PPG from '67 to '68:

McKenzie 84%
Cournoyer 74%
Provost 74%
Beliveau 72%
Bathgate 66%
Duff 66%
Hodge 60%
Gilbert 59%
Ingarfield 57%
TremblayG 50%
Hadfield 48%
Esposito 38%
Prentice 30%
Delvecchio 30%
Nevin 28%
Bucyk 27%
HoweG 26%
Armstrong 25%
MahovlichF 21%
Goldsworthy 17%
BackstromR 16%
Marshall 15%
Goyette 10%
WilliamsTo 9%
Wharram 8%
Pulford 8%
Orr 8%
Ullman 6%
Pappin 4%
Ellis 4%
Westfall 3%
Rousseau 2%
Nesterenko 1%
Oliver 0%
MartinP 0%
Keon -2%
HullBo -6%
Mikita -6%
Mohns -11%
HendersonP -13%
HullD -20%
Pilote -27%
RichardH -34%
Larose -44%

As can be seen, the vast majority of players significantly increased their adjusted PPG. Interestingly, a good portion of the decreases were on Chicago and ex-teammates of Espo's.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 03-05-2012 at 11:29 PM.
Czech Your Math is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-05-2012, 11:53 PM
  #15
LeBlondeDemon10
BlindLemon Haystacks
 
LeBlondeDemon10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,156
vCash: 500
I think dilution is partly the answer for the expansion of 67. However, in 1979, the professional leagues (NHL, WHA) in North America amalgamated and the number of teams was reduced from 23 to 21. If you go back just 2 years, the number of professional teams is reduced from 30 to 21. Yet scoring still begins to climb. So dilution is only part of the answer. In addition, when the NHL expanded in the 90's scoring declined significantly. This is further evidence that dilution is only part of the answer. The other significant developments that likely contributed to a rapid increase in scoring over a 20 year period and then the steady decline in scoring since the mid-90's are (some pointed out by other posters):

- changing of the role of the defense man from defense to offense to defense. The Orr factor.
- the influx of varying styles of offenses from Russia and Europe.
- development of goal tending from the 90's to the present, including the development of equipment.
- the introduction of the trap and other defensive oriented systems (thank you Jacques Lemaire) in the mid-90's which shifted the focus of the game from a healthier balance of offense and defense to primarily defense oriented.
- the fitness condition of the average NHL player. Being in top physical condition affords one the means to exert oneself at a higher level. Everyone one knows its easier to skate harder when your team has possession of the puck as opposed to not having possession. Further to this, the average shift length has likely decreased from 1:30 in 1975 to 45 seconds today. Again this affords one the means to exert oneself to capacity on every shift.
- the NHL has outgrown the 200 ' by 85 ' rink because of the increase in the size of players and the pace the game is currently played at leaving less space and time to execute offensive plays compared to 20 years ago.

I'm sure there are more but I'll leave it at that.

LeBlondeDemon10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 12:00 AM
  #16
Hockey Outsider
Registered User
 
Hockey Outsider's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,410
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
As can be seen, the vast majority of players significantly increased their adjusted PPG. Interestingly, a good portion of the decreases were on Chicago and ex-teammates of Espo's.
I looked into this once and I found that, on average, a player in the NHL in 1967 increased his scoring by almost exactly 10% in 1968 (on a per game basis). The numbers you posted look really high. I'll have to see if I can find the file where I did the calculation.

Hockey Outsider is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 12:11 AM
  #17
Czech Your Math
Registered User
 
Czech Your Math's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: bohemia
Country: Czech_ Republic
Posts: 3,759
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
I looked into this once and I found that, on average, a player in the NHL in 1967 increased his scoring by almost exactly 10% in 1968 (on a per game basis). The numbers you posted look really high. I'll have to see if I can find the file where I did the calculation.
Keep in mind that my calculations are based on adjusted PPG and are the more elite players. Still, I would be interested to see your results.

Czech Your Math is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 12:27 AM
  #18
Hardyvan123
tweet@HardyintheWack
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,323
vCash: 500
also if we look at the PP% totals they go up noticeably in the later 70's and stay there at the 20% plus level until 90 then dip down to the 15% level in 98.

Different strategies, league talent and distribution, goaltending both in quality and equipment might have to do with this as well.

Hardyvan123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 02:14 AM
  #19
Theokritos
Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 3,358
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Shadows View Post

Scoring did not just suddenly skyrocket after expansion as some think. It took years and a bunch of teams willing to allow their defenders more freedom to jump into the play after seeing the effectiveness of Bobby Orr.
...
Look at the first few years before expansion and you will see that scoring between 65 and 1970 across the board was not all that different with the exception of Orr and Esposito, who were outliers.
...
Even in 70-71, the year 4 Bruins were the top scorers in the league(When they had their strategy just killing even the best teams) you will note that the next 5 best scorers in the league were still at that 1965 level and scoring had not yet started to hop for everyone since everyone was still playing that defense first game.
...
Then a noticeable change. Brad Park cracked 17th in scoring in 71-72 with 73 points. Not only that, but the top 3 scorers behind Esposito and Orr were NYR players. Still, it had not quite caught on leaguewide.
...
Even by 73-74(A season in which Park had a monster season 9th in scoring, but a coaching change had the team a bit off), the majority of the NHL had not yet converted to offense first. The 4 top scoring spots were still taken by Orr's Bruins, but the next 5 after them were still only scoring 82-87 points.

74-75 started to cut a bit more loose. 4 defensemen had over 70 points, and 10 of them had over 56 points. 56 does not sound like a lot, but in 1970 it would have been an eye popping number to score for a defenseman. Not only that, but a record 7 players had over 100 points that season and 12 had over 90. Teams and defensemen were beginning to sacrifice defense for offense. Something that just was not done previously by many teams.

It continued to escalate like that. The seals were an NHL worst with 320 goals against in 1970. Well, the seals still had 316 goals against in 75, but 4 other teams had even worse goals against that year(The capitals 446 goals against being the worst)

By the mid 80's, you were looking at 12 teams giving up around 300-400+ goals a season.
Great post.

Theokritos is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 02:35 AM
  #20
charliolemieux
rsTmf
 
charliolemieux's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,573
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Historically, when the talent pool thins out, scoring tends to increase. The highest scoring seasons in NHL history before expansion were 1944 and 1945 when a large part of the league's talent were off serving during World War 2. Scoring dropped back to normal as talent came back.

The 1967 expansion doubled the size of the league without increasing the talent pool, so the gap between the best and worst players grew.

IMO, the influx of European and American talent is part of the reason league scoring has decreased in recent years.

Trends in coaching and style of play (partly influenced by Bobby Orr and partly influenced by the European skill game) were especially important in the late 70s and early 80s
Basically this.

Oates can thank his only 40+ goal season to this.

Scoring should have gone down in the mid-late 80's, all being equal, but the influx of top European talent kept the numbers up. However, later even with expansion and the falling of the Iron Curtain the coaching systems and Goalie equipment stifled scoring in the mid 90's leading to the "Dead Puck" era.

Fitness, coaching, equipment and a global talent pool to draw from has really leveled the playing field. The gap between superstar and plugger has gotten smaller.

charliolemieux is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 01:05 PM
  #21
Canadiens1958
Registered User
 
Canadiens1958's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 11,652
vCash: 500
Post 1967 Scoring

A number of reasons.

The 1967 expansion coincided with the end of the sponsorship era for junior hockey. Within two seasons you had the start of the three league CHL, combining the various provincial leagues out west into one, the OHA was enlarged to include Northern Ontario and the two Quebec junior leagues MMJHL and QJHL were merged to form the QMJHL.

Independant junior owners, without NHL sponsorship dollars focused on scoring and fighting to sell the game. Check the scoring levels in the various CHL leagues during the seventies compared to the pre 1967 OHA.

The two goalie system in junior, the minors and the NHL meant that the teams played their weaker goalie between 20-50% of the games.

Curved stick and the slapshot. By the end of the 1970`s the slapshot was an NHL mainstay.

Canadiens1958 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 01:37 PM
  #22
seventieslord
Moderator
 
seventieslord's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Country: Canada
Posts: 25,183
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
The two goalie system in junior, the minors and the NHL meant that the teams played their weaker goalie between 20-50% of the games.
If this increased everyone's goals against over the season, then why do they keep doing it?

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, I have long said that New Jersey has it figured out and plays their best goalie as often as possible, and is better for it.

But if what you're saying is true, then if teams played their #1 all season, scoring would be lower, but the general idea behind having a backup is because his occasional performances give your starter a rest, allowing him to continue to be as good as he is, rather than wear down and degrade over the season, and you'll be better off in the long run. (i.e. the extra goals the backup allows are not as much as the extra goals your starter might allow once he's fatigued)

I've always questioned this, and your premise seems to agree with that.

But the red herring to all of it is - if you and I are right, why on earth does every team still insist on playing an inferior goalie for 20-30 games?

seventieslord is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-06-2012, 02:22 PM
  #23
Canadiens1958
Registered User
 
Canadiens1958's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 11,652
vCash: 500
Goalie Training

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
If this increased everyone's goals against over the season, then why do they keep doing it?

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, I have long said that New Jersey has it figured out and plays their best goalie as often as possible, and is better for it.

But if what you're saying is true, then if teams played their #1 all season, scoring would be lower, but the general idea behind having a backup is because his occasional performances give your starter a rest, allowing him to continue to be as good as he is, rather than wear down and degrade over the season, and you'll be better off in the long run. (i.e. the extra goals the backup allows are not as much as the extra goals your starter might allow once he's fatigued)

I've always questioned this, and your premise seems to agree with that.

But the red herring to all of it is - if you and I are right, why on earth does every team still insist on playing an inferior goalie for 20-30 games?
Comes down to how goalies are groomed during the developmental years.

Pre two goalie systems teams from Pee Wee on up had one goalie and he played. Atom and novice were not really a factor inj those days. Once the two goalie system became systematic down to the lowest levels both goalies had to play since the parents of each were paying fees. The load was more or less split so the neither goalie developed the physical or mental stamina to play a complete season.

Recently there was a thread about why Ontario has not produced an elite level goalie in generations. Ontario is a proponant of the MINOR - first year in a category / MAJOR - second year in a category classifications. A double letter MAJOR team plays both its goalies equally since both sets of parents pay the same fees. So the goalies do not develop stamina as described above.

Quebec on the other hand does not favour the MINOR/MAJOR distinction. AS a result most double letter teams and higher, feature a first year and a second year in category goalie. Splitting the role about 1/3 - 2/3. This continues into junior where teams unless stacking for a Memorial Cup run will have a 16/17 year old goalie, two if rebuilding from near zero to a 16/17 and an 18/19 year old combo with the older goalie playing a solid majority, at least 2/3 of the games.

Playing the #1 goalie all season. You would need a goalie strong enough to do it. Brodeur is, as are some of the others - Price, Lundqvist, Kipprusoff, come to mind immediately, most are not.

Biggest issue years ago was the stamina factor out of junior to the NHL when the junior schedule was 42-48 games vs a 70 game NHL schedule. Still an issue today.

Playing an inferior goalie - no different than playing 3rd or 4th liners or bottom pairing dmen. Cannot afford to burn out your top 5-10 skaters so you play the dregs. After all roster sizes are fixedand you have to pay them the high minimum at least.


Last edited by Canadiens1958: 03-07-2012 at 01:08 PM. Reason: addition
Canadiens1958 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:58 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.