This is very tough to say, but I'll give it a shot.
Shortest:
Detroit-As great as they have been, Lidstrom isn't going to play forever and when he is gone, unless they find a replacement, I think their window closes. If you think about it, what a perfect time for them to go out and sign Suter if he makes it to UFA.
I am also not very familiar with their farm system and I don't know who they have in the pipeline. For the past 20 years they seem to have done pretty well in that regard. So while I definitely don't rule them out as retooling their team and making it a contender again very soon, I think that with the guys they have now, they have the shortest window.
Philly-Pronger sure would make this team look better right now, but who knows if he even comes back or if he is the same player. Briere is getting older now as well. They do have some very good young players that could keep them in the hunt though.
Longest
Pittsburgh-Health is a concern, but a healthy Pittsburgh team will be a force for a long time, all of their key players are pretty young, they could even get better.
Shero also seems to come up with fantastic trades like Neal and Niskanen for Goligoski.
NYR-Their defense and goaltending alone will keep them in the conversation for years. They also have shown that they will sign the big name UFA when available so I expect them to do that when needed.
The Rangers also have some nice prospects to keep them stocked up.
This is just the very beginning for the Rangers, I just get the feeling that they will be near the top for a long time.
Boston-The only team that has older guys that may leave soon(Thomas) and the team already has replacements. Chara is probably going to play for another 5-7 years because he is a freak and there aren't many people on the planet who are as physically fit as he is. The entire core of the team except fot Thomas and Chara is 25 or under.
Rask seems ready to take over for Thomas and Dougie Hamilton seems like an elite talent from what he is doing in junior. I wouldn't expect Hamilton to be Chara's replacemnt next year or even the year after that, but after a couple of years in the NHL I think he has a very good shot at being a guy who could replace Chara.
The Bruins also have some nice forward prospects to keep it going.
Vancouver-I know a lot of people have them in the shortest column, but the Sedins, even though they are getting older are not that old and it's not like the game they play takes a huge physical toll on them. I could see them playing until they are close to 40.
They have a nice setup in goal with Schneider as a backup and I think that if this year Luongo falters in the playoffs, we will see Schneider take over and it may be for good.
The trick here is going to be hanging on to players when their deals are over and from the deals Bieksa and the Sedins have signed, it makes me think that the players on the team want to stay there.
Hodgson and Kassian are young guys with a lot of upside to keep it going as well.
They have a GM who isn't afraid to make moves.
The Jury is still out for me on Chicago, They have young players who are highly skilled in Toews and Kane, but I have been reading lately about Kane possibly being moved like it is a forgone conclusion.
I'm not convinced that their window hasn't already closed, I'd be pretty happy to say I am wrong since i really like this team, but I just get the feeling that they aren't going to be a contender for much longer without some serious work.
I would say Boston has 2 more years left. Looking at Lucic, Seguin and Marchand who will need pay rises as RFAs (not including Rask this year). They also would lose Ference to UFA in two years time (who I think is underrated under Seidenberg and Chara). I know Boston has Hamilton coming up through the prospect pool but I don't know if they could replace a Lucic, Seguin or Marchand if they had to sacrifice one to keep the other two. Not entirely familiar with Boston's prospects so correct me if I'm wrong.
The Bruins don't have any long term contract commitments that would restrict them from signing all of Lucic, Seguin, Marchand, and Rask. Supposedly that's why Chiarelli stayed out of the July 1st free agent sweepstakes with $7-9 Million in cap space available.
The biggest challenge for the Bruins will be come when Chara retires or his play drops off considerably. I think he has about 3-5 years of Norris caliber D left in him. Hamilton will be 23/24 by that time. He's just a prospect though. Not every highly touted prospect turns out. Teenage defenseman are even harder to predict.
Aside from that, everything else is in place to keep that window open for another several years IMO. Rask and Thomas have almost identical numbers over the past three seasons. No question who the more impactful goalie was, but the transition to Rask should be smooth.
Detroit's management deserves a lot of respect, but I think the Red Wings would seem to have the shortest window in my mind.
Everyone said Detroit's window was closing 10 years ago with Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Shannahan, etc., slowing down. But they did have a young Datsyuk and Zetterberg waiting in the wings, and Lidstrom was in his early 30s.
Detroit may have a nice prospect pool now, but I don't see any Datsyuk or Zetterberg type of talents ready to emerge in the next 2-3 years, and you can only do so much in terms of UFA signings.
In five years, Lidstrom will be nearly 47, Holmstrom 44, Bertuzzi 42, Datsyuk nearly 39, Franzen 38, and Zetterberg will be around 36. Some of those players will be gone for sure, and the others likely will be experiencing a severe erosion of their skills due to age.
One common theme for Detroit's success in the last 20 years has been Lidstrom, who I think has been perhaps underrated during his career. He is one of the very best defensemen to ever play in the NHL and at the age of 42 is in the Norris Trophy discussion.
Signing a Suter will help, but he cannot be considered a replacement for Lidstrom. You simply do not replace a Lidstrom IMO.
The Devils are in a spot where things could go either way very quickly. This season, they are contending on the basis of 1) Strong offensive performances from a deep group of forwards and 2) Underrated two-way performances from the same group of forwards and 3) Even more underrated shut-down performances on the blue line.
The only constant in the long term among that forward group is Kovalchuck, who is signed through forever and still young. Patrick Elias, Dainus Zubrus and Petyr Sykora are all getting old, and their underrated two-way production will have to be replaced. Travis Zajac, David Clarkson, and Zach Parise are younger, but free agency is a threat. I think the Devils have a pretty good chance of retaining all three younger guys - they have the cap room.
Assuming that at least one of Adam Henrique, Jacob Josefson, or Mattias Tedenby develop into top-6 guys, the Devils will only need to bring in two forwards to fill spots. Very doable, considering their cap space.
On defense, Adam Larsson is the key. If he develops into a true #1 (We've seen glimpses so far, but still waiting on consistency), the Devils are in great shape. The cast behind him is largely set for some time, between Tallinder/Greene/Volchenkov/Fayne, plus whomever else emerges from the deep farm system.
Goaltending is a question mark, but its not like Brodeur/Hedberg are actually carrying the Devils this season. They are doing better than their stats suggest, but aren't that big of a net advantage for the Devils. They could improve, and at the very least can do better on their cap situation.
Its not hard to imagine a Devils window of opportunity over the next 5 years centered around Larsson, Kovalchuck, Parise, Henrique, Zajac, and Volchenkov.
Meh. Good teams tend to stay good teams, and bad teams tend to stay bad teams. Windows are open a lot longer than anyone seems to realize, or cares to admit.
Good teams build cultures of winning, attract free agents and retain their players at more cap friendly deals, and tend to have strong scouting and player development systems, which is how they became good teams in the first place. Good players may depart or retire, but they always seem to quickly retool. Detroit is a perfect example of a good team who has seen huge roster turn-over over the last 10-15 years yet remained a top contender annually.
Bad teams have cultures of losing, have trouble attracting free agents and retaining players (and when they do, they overpay, throwing their salary system out of whack). They often scout poorly and have a record of ruining draft picks or handling their development poorly. It can take many years for a bad team to crawl out of the cellar, even with a parade of high draft picks.
I think with Mike Gillis at the helm that the window for the Canucks could be open indefinitely.
Not worried about Vancouver at all....with Gillis running a top notch organization, being an ideal place to live and raise families, and as they have continued to demonstrate with their various FA signings, they will always be able to attract more than their fair share of FAs with guys willing to take 'home town' discounts that will give them an slight edge over comparable teams going forward.
I know that Wings fans feel that their prospect pool is better than it has been for a long while, but when I look down those names I see complimentary pieces rather than reference points.
I suppose we'll see... and there's always free agency.
I'm pretty Zetterberg was ranked 20 something by the hockey news the year before he came over for Detroit prospects and Datsyuk was even lower.
I think Nyquist and Jarnkrok are 2 forwards to keep an eye on, they could be 70 point forwards. Then couple that with one big free agent up front (Parise ) you suddenly have a solid core.
On D Smith is an elite prospect as well.
The pieces are there to build around by adding one or two more guys
Also, I dont understand the thinking that because Lidstrom cannot be "replaced", the team is going to suck when he retires. How come a lot of other NHL teams can get by without a Lidstrom caliber player but the Red Wings wouldn't be able to? That just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
Can somebody explain to me how a team that has a quarter of their goals scored by rookies and the most rookie points is considered to have a short window?
I think Vancouver may be the next Detroit just not quite as elite as they may not be in top 3 teams but for atleast the next 10 years they will make the playoffs and always be able to do damage.
Longest: Rangers/Boston
Each team has one question mark
Boston can they replace Chara in 5 years?
Rangers can they find the goalie of the future and develop him behind Hank(they have alot of time)
Management & good coaching is the biggest key here, I think.
Like others have said, look Detroit. I don't think I've gone through a season yet without hearing that this is their last year of dominance and to expect them to slow down for the next few seasons.
Your farm system means nothing if management can't hold onto them, coaches don't develop them and/or the team doesn't have a solid set of vets to guide them.
I think Vancouver may be the next Detroit just not quite as elite as they may not be in top 3 teams but for atleast the next 10 years they will make the playoffs and always be able to do damage.
Longest: Rangers/Boston
Each team has one question mark
Boston can they replace Chara in 5 years?
Rangers can they find the goalie of the future and develop him behind Hank(they have alot of time)
The issue with them is their best players are in their primes already and they have no major reinforcements on the way. They can still contend, but their best chance to win is now - before some of the other contenders with younger squads get better.
I think peopl are underrating how big of an impact Lidstrom has on and off the Ice. He's constantly one of the best d-man every yr and his contract is pretty sweet. Even if you replace him with a high talent FA, your still losing a lot of exp and leadership. I don't think the Wings will be push overs when he retires but it will have a big impact IMO.
For the Canucks, it all depends on the Sedins. Our defence is locked up and our forwards are relatively young. Once the Sedins retire/decline we'll be short a #1 line and probably be a bubble team until we get them replaced. I'd say we have at least 3 more years in the elite before we have to do some retooling.
look at this strictly by current players ages, cap space, and in system replacements.
shortest:
Detroit- the core (elite) parts of that team are old. they have a solid prospect group but they are going to need some magic as i dont think any of their current prospects are highly likely to replace datsyuk, zetterberg, or lidstrom. of course they have already pulled this rabbit out of their hat once before when they transitioned from the yzerman federov shanny era to the dats zetterburg franson one.can they strike gold twice? (obviously with cap space if they land suter or parise that helps immensely)
San Jose- the core of that team is slowing down despite not being that old. couture looks like hes going to be damn good but they dont have a slew of elite prospects to start replacing aging stars. cap looks like its an issue that will keep them from scoring a major free agent to help fix their impending issues
Longest
Boston- the core on offense is all in their prime or havent yet hit their prime (no one over 27 right now) and well done contracts have them with plenty of cap space. they also have a solid group of forward prospects to fill secondary scoring (plus a 20 year old franchise type player in Seguin) the two main guys who are old are Chara and Thomas. Rask is a great goalie and will make a smooth transition. Chara has 3 or 4 good years left and the bruins have about as elite of a d prospect as you can hope for in hamilton tearing up the ohl. If hamilton flops boston still has 4 years left
if he rounds into a number 1 type d-man boston could have 8-10 years of contention without needing to do much except ride the wave.
St Louis- see above in terms of core. (they have a young d-core as well) their biggest issue is elite offense. they are deep and young on offense but do they have enough elite level guys which you need to step it up in the playoffs. (we should find that out starting this season)
Pittsburgh- health is the biggest factor here. if healthy a team with crosby, malkin, letang, and fleury should be in the playoffs with just a marginal gm. shero seems like a pretty good gm so i expect he will do a good job of keeping the secondary scorers and muckers streaming in.
Rangers - lundquist the d group and a solid group of prospects should make them elite for as long as richards gaborik and callahan do their thing. they are not the deepest offense in the world so they need the quality prospects in their system to be good secondary scorers. their biggest issue could be sathers. if they get impatient and make a dumb trade or dumb signing they could shorten their expectancy considerable.(like bringing in nash for a hefty price of picks prospects and players) that would hurt their screw their cap up and put a dent in the secondary scorers/shutdown forwards that are essential to playoff success.
the could go either way group
Chicago- should have a long window but they are a strange team. keith seabrook kane toews hossa sharp should have them as a perennial top tier team but they dont seem to show that during the regular season. i think the issue here is depth and goaltending. they need to stabilize the goaltending and do a better job of drafting guys who can contribute as secondary scorers and shutdown forwards.
Vancouver-the sedins aging process will decide this. if they age gracefully the team still has a solid window and time to wheel and deal to set themselves for the long term. if they hit a wall vancouver lacks any up and coming elite talent now that they dealt hodgson. they still have time to make something happen though
Washington- who knows. they apear to be coming apart at the seems this year. if ovi doesnt return to form they could be toast as a contender. backstrom is a damn good player and i like the young d-men as well as johansson but their core seems incapable of putting it all together.
Philly- the offense has lots of young talent but the d doesnt have a number 1 without pronger and hes no spring chicken. the goaltending is also unbelievable. its as if no goalie can do well in philly. bryz either must re-find his game or they must find a way to trade him because that contract with the pronger over 35 one will ruin them over the next couple season if both guys are useless. i dont know their d prospects but im not sure they have an highly touted guys with good chances of being a number 1.
my humble opinion
nothing is ever set in stone though 1 career ending injury, horrible contract, or unhappy star could ruin those with long outlooks while a diamond in the rough or brilliant gming could flip a team from downturn into upturn.
Longest: Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Boston.
Shortest: Don't know who really qualifies here. I guess most by most people's standards San Jose would go here, but to be honest I don't think San Jose is a contender at all. I agree with the consensus that the Wings seem like they have a short window left with Z, Dat, and Lidstrom, but like everyone has already said, who's really going to doubt them?
Teams like Chicago have solid cores but their goaltending situation is pretty scary, and off the beaten path I still think a core led by Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan should always be solid, especially given the extremely reasonable price I believe the first two are signed to.
Man I really wish people would stop with the Detroit meltdown. I've been hoping for it forever and it hasn't happened.
I realize if you say it every year you will eventually be right but Detroit should now be exempt from this at least until they miss the Playoffs two years in a row.
I know they are soft and too many euros but that made them the best team in the 90's. I know they are too old but that made them the best team in 2002. I know when they lose Lidstrom they won't compete. I heard that in 2006 when everyone said that would happen after Yzerman and Shanahan both left. No possible way you can possibly ompete losing two great HOFers. I know we have no one that is as great as Datsyuk and Zetterburg in line waiting but according to "the online experts" we didn't have a Datsyuk and Zetterburg in line waiting when they were on the third and fourth line with the Wings at the time. And in between all that time they were PT winners more than anyone else and annual favorites to win it all almost every year. Keep in mind every single year since the mid 90's we were too soft and too old then too and done.
look at this strictly by current players ages, cap space, and in system replacements.
shortest:
Detroit- the core (elite) parts of that team are old. they have a solid prospect group but they are going to need some magic as i dont think any of their current prospects are highly likely to replace datsyuk, zetterberg, or lidstrom. of course they have already pulled this rabbit out of their hat once before when they transitioned from the yzerman federov shanny era to the dats zetterburg franson one.can they strike gold twice? (obviously with cap space if they land suter or parise that helps immensely)
San Jose- the core of that team is slowing down despite not being that old. couture looks like hes going to be damn good but they dont have a slew of elite prospects to start replacing aging stars. cap looks like its an issue that will keep them from scoring a major free agent to help fix their impending issues
Longest
Boston- the core on offense is all in their prime or havent yet hit their prime (no one over 27 right now) and well done contracts have them with plenty of cap space. they also have a solid group of forward prospects to fill secondary scoring (plus a 20 year old franchise type player in Seguin) the two main guys who are old are Chara and Thomas. Rask is a great goalie and will make a smooth transition. Chara has 3 or 4 good years left and the bruins have about as elite of a d prospect as you can hope for in hamilton tearing up the ohl. If hamilton flops boston still has 4 years left
if he rounds into a number 1 type d-man boston could have 8-10 years of contention without needing to do much except ride the wave.
St Louis- see above in terms of core. (they have a young d-core as well) their biggest issue is elite offense. they are deep and young on offense but do they have enough elite level guys which you need to step it up in the playoffs. (we should find that out starting this season)
Pittsburgh- health is the biggest factor here. if healthy a team with crosby, malkin, letang, and fleury should be in the playoffs with just a marginal gm. shero seems like a pretty good gm so i expect he will do a good job of keeping the secondary scorers and muckers streaming in.
Rangers - lundquist the d group and a solid group of prospects should make them elite for as long as richards gaborik and callahan do their thing. they are not the deepest offense in the world so they need the quality prospects in their system to be good secondary scorers. their biggest issue could be sathers. if they get impatient and make a dumb trade or dumb signing they could shorten their expectancy considerable.(like bringing in nash for a hefty price of picks prospects and players) that would hurt their screw their cap up and put a dent in the secondary scorers/shutdown forwards that are essential to playoff success.
the could go either way group
Chicago- should have a long window but they are a strange team. keith seabrook kane toews hossa sharp should have them as a perennial top tier team but they dont seem to show that during the regular season. i think the issue here is depth and goaltending. they need to stabilize the goaltending and do a better job of drafting guys who can contribute as secondary scorers and shutdown forwards.
Vancouver-the sedins aging process will decide this. if they age gracefully the team still has a solid window and time to wheel and deal to set themselves for the long term. if they hit a wall vancouver lacks any up and coming elite talent now that they dealt hodgson. they still have time to make something happen though
Washington- who knows. they apear to be coming apart at the seems this year. if ovi doesnt return to form they could be toast as a contender. backstrom is a damn good player and i like the young d-men as well as johansson but their core seems incapable of putting it all together.
Philly- the offense has lots of young talent but the d doesnt have a number 1 without pronger and hes no spring chicken. the goaltending is also unbelievable. its as if no goalie can do well in philly. bryz either must re-find his game or they must find a way to trade him because that contract with the pronger over 35 one will ruin them over the next couple season if both guys are useless. i dont know their d prospects but im not sure they have an highly touted guys with good chances of being a number 1.
my humble opinion
nothing is ever set in stone though 1 career ending injury, horrible contract, or unhappy star could ruin those with long outlooks while a diamond in the rough or brilliant gming could flip a team from downturn into upturn.
Have you seen a flyers game recently? Bryz has been very solid for the last 6 or 7 games, and he's been unbelievable for the past 3-4. He's been keeping us in games and if his current play is an indication of a turning point for him, goaltending will not be an issue.
People will say "well that's only a small sample size, he'll come back down to earth" without realizing that his bad play through the middle of the season could be regarded as a sample size. It's just as easy to say THIS is Bryz as it is to say THAT was Bryz. I really think it just took him a bit to get acclimated to a new environment that is a polar opposite of Phoenix. The media, the system, a new city with a family, new team mates. I think that Bryz will be fine and he really seems to be settling in ever since the leadership group took him aside and reassured him.
He's proven he is a legit starting goaltender in this league and he has the numbers to prove it, so he may very well be turning it around.
Can somebody explain to me how a team that has a quarter of their goals scored by rookies and the most rookie points is considered to have a short window?
Because your third leading scorer is 40, your best all-round D-man after Pronger (who is himself in doubt for the future) is 37 soon, and every single prospect of little or large note is already on your NHL team. With several of those you count on for the long term still having to prove that they can be reference points (Couturier, Schenn, JVR etc.)
Philly is a good team and will remain so. But personally I think they belong in the same "up in the air" bracket as several other teams behind a group of obvious picks with the Pens, St.Louis, Boston and Chicago on top.
I think Ottawa have a great future also if they keep building on what they have now.
) you suddenly have a solid core.
. The team is built much like detroit I can see them being able have the same type of success.
