Trade Rumors and Free Agent TalkTrade rumors, transactions, and free agent talk. Rumors must contain the word RUMOR in post title. Proposals must contain the word PROPOSAL in post title.
Its hardly getting overrated. Thats the going price for a potential franchise player. Look at all the 2nd overalls from the past like 8 years. All but maybe JVR would garner whats being asked from Edmonton fans.
We dont have to trade it at all. If you want the pick, you gotta pay for it. If you dont like it, dont make an offer. We're not gonna trade it for scraps or players that dont fill needs on our roster.
The #2 pick is a POTENTIAL franchise player. Myers+? Subban+? Schenn+a Top 5 pick?
Trading a sure thing (relatively speaking, there is still some time to go, but Myers/Subban at MINIMUM Top 4 D with stud potential) for a "lottery ticket" is never a smart long-term strategy
Have you ever looked at a list of #1 and #2 overall picks before? They're massively valuable because they produce elite + star level players routinely with a much lower chance of busting than the picks even just after them. Not to mention, teams control the players they draft for an extensive period, at a huge discount to what a similarly performing but older player would receive.
Educate yourself.
Routinely produce elite level players?? The last few years have been an anomaly. The spot has produced a lot of great players, but it also has produced guys like Daigle, Yashin, Stefan, Berard, Legwand, DiPietro..as well as a bunch of 'quality' (but not star) guys like Hamerlik, J. Staal, Lethonen, etc..
Is there a really good chance of getting a star player? Of course. The numbers prove that. But Myers is ALREADY on his way. a 6'8" D-man that can put up points. At WORST he stays at his current level (Top 4 D), but has more likely Top 2 potential. You could make a similar argument for Subban
Doesn't make sense to value a 75% chance at a first-liner, for a young star with about the same chance, but is already contributing... AND add a quality piece to it.
player development occurs faster (due to nutrition and training advances) making it easier to project players into the future.
scouting has also improved due to reduced travel costs, extended use of video, and the internet.
picking top-2 is as sure of thing as there is these days, the chances that player busts is equal to the chances an established NHL player falls off a cliff.
Let's evaluate that list of players you mentioned.
Daigle, Stefan, Legwand, Hamrlik - legitimate "bust" types considering their draft spot. Scouting has drastically improved since then I would hope you admit.
Berard, Dipietro - were showing signs of being stud players before injuries derailed them. You're including them could easily be countered by the obvious statement that ANY player can have injuries that end their career at any time. Poor luck is all.
Lehtonen - could be included in the injury group, but has been a top 5 - 10 goalie this year, maybe now that he's healthy, he was worth a top 2 pick?
Yashin - was a legitimate superstar until he went to the Islanders. Another career ruined by a Mickey Mouse organization.
J. Staal - not a superstar, but a top 2nd line center on any team (this year proves that), and could likely be a number one. I don't know why you included him.
So, at best, half of your list can be considered bad picks, and those were all in times before scouting was as good as now. The number two pick this year has very, very little chance of being a "bust". About as much as any other young star player regressing and becoming one. And Grigorenko and Galchenyuk have a much better chance at being a legitimate franchise player than the guys being discussed in trades for that pick.
Quote:
Originally Posted by T_Cage
Routinely produce elite level players?? The last few years have been an anomaly. The spot has produced a lot of great players, but it also has produced guys like Daigle, Yashin, Stefan, Berard, Legwand, DiPietro..as well as a bunch of 'quality' (but not star) guys like Hamerlik, J. Staal, Lethonen, etc..
Is there a really good chance of getting a star player? Of course. The numbers prove that. But Myers is ALREADY on his way. a 6'8" D-man that can put up points. At WORST he stays at his current level (Top 4 D), but has more likely Top 2 potential. You could make a similar argument for Subban
Doesn't make sense to value a 75% chance at a first-liner, for a young star with about the same chance, but is already contributing... AND add a quality piece to it.
2nd Overall
LA 3rd Rounder 2012 (from Penner deal)
TOR 1st (5th-8th overall)
Luke Schenn
Leafs get Grigorenko with the pick and also get into the 3rd round, while Edmonton gets a young, physical defenceman and can still draft the likes of a Reinhardt/Trouba/Reilly/Pouliot with the pick - they make two solid acquisitions to move the rebuild forward.
Seems like a good deal for both sides.
That really isn't a bad deal. Yes, Schenn is playing horribly and looks like a turnover machine this year but the value really isn't all that bad. There are a few problems, though.
1: We need puck moving defensemen.
2: Schenn would be playing behind two other stay at home d-men and he'd have to keep pulling his socks up to stop our younger d from overtaking him.
3: Not sure Edmonton wants to eat that much cap space.
4: As usual, if Toronto was willing to take Horcoff's contract in return, this deal would easily be done. Heck, you could upgrade that 3rd or our 2nd in such an instance.
4: As usual, if Toronto was willing to take Horcoff's contract in return, this deal would easily be done. Heck, you could upgrade that 3rd or our 2nd in such an instance.
Pretty sure you'd be upgrading that 3rd to a 2013 1st if the Maple Leafs took Horcoff.
Pretty sure you'd be upgrading that 3rd to a 2013 1st if the Maple Leafs took Horcoff.
Why? Horcoff might be overpaid but he's not "Here we will include this potential lottery pick with Horcoff because he's not an NHL player anymore" bad.
I honestly can only see Edmonton trading that pick to Montreal for Subban. Edmonton would want a young, marketable top pairing defenseman for that pick, and Subban is probably the best guy for that job in Edmonton right now
yeah well it ain't ever happening. habs won't deal subban and certainly not to move up one spot. the difference between grigs and galch is not that significant
Why? Horcoff might be overpaid but he's not "Here we will include this potential lottery pick with Horcoff because he's not an NHL player anymore" bad.
He's bad enough to strangle you with his contract if you're a team that operates anywhere near the cap. He's probably a $3M player at best, and there's several years left on his contract. The point is that he's an asset teams just don't want.
yeah well it ain't ever happening. habs won't deal subban and certainly not to move up one spot. the difference between grigs and galch is not that significant
I didn't mean in a position to move up, I meant in a position to have 2 picks in a row. They could get both Grigs and Galch. Or grab Murray.
I wouldn't trade Subban straight up for 2nd overall. Isn't Dumba's potential as a slightly better player than Subban? That's his potential...which isn't always reached, not really worth the risk.
I'd be interested in another top 5 pick for montreal but we don't have what it takes. Well we do, but we're not giving it up, bad trading partners.
I wouldn't pay to move up 1 spot either. We'll deal with whatever you dont take.
I wouldn't trade Subban straight up for 2nd overall. Isn't Dumba's potential as a slightly better player than Subban? That's his potential...which isn't always reached, not really worth the risk.
I'd be interested in another top 5 pick for montreal but we don't have what it takes. Well we do, but we're not giving it up, bad trading partners.
I wouldn't pay to move up 1 spot either. We'll deal with whatever you dont take.
I think it's most likely that they don't do any kind of deal, especially now that Subban seems to be getting along great with everyone on the team and all now. I just imagine how scary a Hall/RNH/Eberle powerplay would be with Subban ringing bullets from the backend. I guess there is always Sochi.
I know the NHL and NFL are very different and you can't really compare the two very well, but after seeing what the #2 pick in the NFL just went for (3 1sts and a 2nd), I would assume that even if a team wanted to move from 4 to 2 it would cost them this years 1st, a second and probably next years 1st.
I think it's most likely that they don't do any kind of deal, especially now that Subban seems to be getting along great with everyone on the team and all now. I just imagine how scary a Hall/RNH/Eberle powerplay would be with Subban ringing bullets from the backend. I guess there is always Sochi.
Don't worry, i dont blame you for asking for subban. I agree, with that type of forward talent, a guy like subban would add to an already exciting team. I think Dumba is your guy. Trade down, draft him and get another pick in the process IMO.
Don't worry, i dont blame you for asking for subban. I agree, with that type of forward talent, a guy like subban would add to an already exciting team. I think Dumba is your guy. Trade down, draft him and get another pick in the process IMO.
Thing with Dumba is he won't play for probably 3-4 years for sure. He needs to gain 50 lbs to play his game in the NHL.
I know the NHL and NFL are very different and you can't really compare the two very well, but after seeing what the #2 pick in the NFL just went for (3 1sts and a 2nd), I would assume that even if a team wanted to move from 4 to 2 it would cost them this years 1st, a second and probably next years 1st.
No, it wouldn't.
In 1999, moving from 4th to 1st cost the 4th overall + two 3rds.
It's basically Gagner for Hodgson and the 2nd overall for Myers. But yeah, I can see their fans not being thrilled, but like I said, the deal has to be a very good one on Edmonton's part.
Don't worry, i dont blame you for asking for subban. I agree, with that type of forward talent, a guy like subban would add to an already exciting team. I think Dumba is your guy. Trade down, draft him and get another pick in the process IMO.
I actually think Murray is our best option right now, since he's more of a play now guy. I think he could slot into our second pairing with Whitney to teach him the way. I honestly hope we end up picking third. Our defense needs a strong young presence. We've got enough forwards right now. I'd also like to move our 2nd round pick + to get a later first round pick to go after Malcom Subban. I've watched a few of his games, and he seems to have a lot of talent, and is quite athletic. I think he projects as more of a #1 than either of our goalie prospects (Bunz and Oliver Roy)
