I'd gamble on Dumba (if available), Reinhardt, Rielly or Trouba. In that order.
My personal favourite is Reinhardt.
By moving down 2-4 spots, you add a 2nd round pick. Pursue one of the top 3 goalies (Vasilevski, Subban, Dansk).
Pretty much, you get to keep Gagner, add Reinhardt/Top goalie prospect/another pick and don't fall victim to being forced to take a BPA you may not love. Looking at the history of the NHL draft and how depth is built within an organization, you may have more success with such a deal (long term). With good scouting a team can add some decent pieces while going the 'quantity' route. Not putting all your eggs in one basket.
It makes sense for the Oilers to move down.
No it doesn't and I bolded the reason for you. For the very same reason that Toronto fans here are saying they don't want Gagner we can't keep Gagner. The moment Edmonton took Nuge last year Gagner's term with Edmonton went on the clock. Edmonton needs size in their top six and both Eberle and Nuge are miles ahead of him so he needs to be traded to a team that has size and needs skill.
Sure the Oilers have good D prospects, but none of which are #1 D potential. It'd be wise for the Oilers to assess that this year, Murray or Dumba for sure.
Why is that? There are lots of templates that win Cups. A true #1 dman is a rarity in this league and I don't see one in this year's draft, myself. When you have a top ten pick at the draft you take BPA.
Nah, it was going around HFOil a couple of months ago and I am too lazy to go find it for you right now. So if you don't want to be believe me that's cool.
I heard him (Stu) say it in an interview on the radio.
If the don't take the BPA then fire the GM... You can shore up the defense through trade and free agency.
Nobody is waiting to trade us OEL, Hedman or Doughty just because we have a Grigorenko to dangle in trade. Top end, young dmen are rarely available in trade. The most recent example would be Erik Johnson and it is arguable how "top end" he would be considered anymore and his trade still raised eyebrows, because it was that shocking that he would be moved.
The "take the bpa we can always trade for need" sounds wonderful, but has little practical application in the real world. Doubtful anyone is going to trade the Oilers their Hamilton, Dumba or Murray.
Also of note, many Oiler fans are hopeful that the Oilers pick Grigorenko with the thought that means Gagner will be moved for a dman.
As others have pointed out, Gagner's value is questionable and to think he is going to return a top dman is most likely wishful thinking. Of course that assumes the Oilers would even move him at all, which is also highly questionable. They seem to fancy Sammy, and I could see him moving over to wing just as easily as being moved in a trade.
Nobody is waiting to trade us OEL, Hedman or Doughty just because we have a Grigorenko to dangle in trade. Top end, young dmen are rarely available in trade. The most recent example would be Erik Johnson and it is arguable how "top end" he would be considered anymore and his trade still raised eyebrows, because it was that shocking that he would be moved.
The "take the bpa we can always trade for need" sounds wonderful, but has little practical application in the real world. Doubtful anyone is going to trade the Oilers their Hamilton, Dumba or Murray.
Also of note, many Oiler fans are hopeful that the Oilers pick Grigorenko with the thought that means Gagner will be moved for a dman.
As others have pointed out, Gagner's value is questionable and to think he is going to return a top dman is most likely wishful thinking. Of course that assumes the Oilers would even move him at all, which is also highly questionable. They seem to fancy Sammy, and I could see him moving over to wing just as easily as being moved in a trade.
You know I am a big Dumba fan. But it is not at all clear to me that he will have the impact of a Doughty or an OEL. I personally favour Grigorenko or Galchenyuk because I think that they are
1) Better players in an absolute sense.
2) More likely to reach an impact level, and sooner by the way.
3) In a position to fill a need that I think is equally as pressing as the quest for a true #1.
We can certainly argue 1) and in that case I am happy to admit that in real terms my opinion is based on rather thin evidence. But it is my opinion.
I firmly believe that 2) is accurate.
3) is quite subjective, but based on where the Oilers are I think a model on the back end resembling the Canucks is both achievable and perhaps prudent.
I will say though that if after the cards fall the Oilers walk away with Dumba I am not going to hang my head. I love the way that kid plays and would perhaps be more excited to see what he can do than I would for any other player in this discussion.
I think the Oilers grab Grigs. He is would be an amazing counter to RNH down the middle. I know we need dman but both Murray and Dumba will take time to develope and by that time the top dman prospects we have drafted the last number of years will be ready as well (Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat, Musil).
I personally would love to see us draft Grigs and trade Gagner for Gormely. Add in what ever else we need to make it work.
Hall - RNH - Eberle
PRV - Grigs - Hemsky
Smid - Petry
Gormely - Whitney
Thats decent... thats enough to not make us dead last right?.... one can only hope
You know I am a big Dumba fan. But it is not at all clear to me that he will have the impact of a Doughty or an OEL. I personally favour Grigorenko or Galchenyuk because I think that they are
1) Better players in an absolute sense.
2) More likely to reach an impact level, and sooner by the way.
3) In a position to fill a need that I think is equally as pressing as the quest for a true #1.
We can certainly argue 1) and in that case I am happy to admit that in real terms my opinion is based on rather thin evidence. But it is my opinion.
I firmly believe that 2) is accurate.
3) is quite subjective, but based on where the Oilers are I think a model on the back end resembling the Canucks is both achievable and perhaps prudent.
I will say though that if after the cards fall the Oilers walk away with Dumba I am not going to hang my head. I love the way that kid plays and would perhaps be more excited to see what he can do than I would for any other player in this discussion.
Why in the world would the Oilers want to model their team after the Canucks? Is it a case of "well their d has no true #1 guy so we dont need one either?".
I dont really get that line of thinking, not only because I think its a really bad idea, but also because the Oilers are lacking in just about every other area you want to look at when comparing the two teams.
The Oilers keep loading up on top end forwards but it isnt getting them anywhere. The team is just as bad now as it was three years ago under Quinn.
People say they arent comfortable with Gagner as the #2C (Im in that group), but Im equally uncomfortable trotting out Corey Potter as the only dman on the first unit pp. Or a hobbled Ryan Whitney.
Dumba would go a long way to making that unit pop.
The Oilers keep loading up on top end forwards but it isnt getting them anywhere. The team is just as bad now as it was three years ago under Quinn.
No way, they are much better in many areas like special teams and goal differential than 3 years ago. The record may not show it, but the ingredients are there to improve. Fans just aren't enough at times to realize this.
Nobody is waiting to trade us OEL, Hedman or Doughty just because we have a Grigorenko to dangle in trade. Top end, young dmen are rarely available in trade. The most recent example would be Erik Johnson and it is arguable how "top end" he would be considered anymore and his trade still raised eyebrows, because it was that shocking that he would be moved.
The "take the bpa we can always trade for need" sounds wonderful, but has little practical application in the real world. Doubtful anyone is going to trade the Oilers their Hamilton, Dumba or Murray.
Also of note, many Oiler fans are hopeful that the Oilers pick Grigorenko with the thought that means Gagner will be moved for a dman.
As others have pointed out, Gagner's value is questionable and to think he is going to return a top dman is most likely wishful thinking. Of course that assumes the Oilers would even move him at all, which is also highly questionable. They seem to fancy Sammy, and I could see him moving over to wing just as easily as being moved in a trade.
This guy gets it. Not saying don't pick Grigorenko. I could care less. But if I'm an Oilers fan I'm hoping we get a dman/goalie.
BPA is all well and good but you've had the last two BPA's. If Morgan Rielly is the BPA to the ducks id be horrified if they picked him. Fowler, Rielly, Vatanen, Schultz. Too many PMDs. Different situation, but still. Teams need balance.
Why in the world would the Oilers want to model their team after the Canucks? Is it a case of "well their d has no true #1 guy so we dont need one either?".
I dont really get that line of thinking, not only because I think its a really bad idea, but also because the Oilers are lacking in just about every other area you want to look at when comparing the two teams.
The Oilers keep loading up on top end forwards but it isnt getting them anywhere. The team is just as bad now as it was three years ago under Quinn.
People say they arent comfortable with Gagner as the #2C (Im in that group), but Im equally uncomfortable trotting out Corey Potter as the only dman on the first unit pp. Or a hobbled Ryan Whitney.
Dumba would go a long way to making that unit pop.
I am no Canucks fan, but it is clear that they have had success without ever having a true high end dman. The same could be said of the Sharks.
Now if you want Stanley Cup champs rather than regular season warriors, you have Pittsburgh, Carolina and Tampa.
So no matter how you label it there are successful teams that had a solid to very good defense without a clear top end star.
To be honest Potter is a red herring, and I am sure you know it. Of course the Oilers are not going to be successful with him as the ppqb. But realistically how long do you expect that to continue?
I think that out of Smid, Schultz and Petry you have the makings of a solid top 4. We disagree on Whitney's longterm prospects, though far less so than we did at the beginning of the season. But to be honest I am not convinced that the gap between Dumba and guys like Klefbom, Maricicn and Gernat is so big that one of these 3 cannot fill the missing spot.
In the end though you don't have to sell me on why Dumba would be great to have on the Oilers. I already believe that. But so far you have not convinced me that he will have more impact than a guy like Grigorenko or Galchenyuk.
This guy gets it. Not saying don't pick Grigorenko. I could care less. But if I'm an Oilers fan I'm hoping we get a dman/goalie.
BPA is all well and good but you've had the last two BPA's. If Morgan Rielly is the BPA to the ducks id be horrified if they picked him. Fowler, Rielly, Vatanen, Schultz. Too many PMDs. Different situation, but still. Teams need balance.
First of all, if the Oilers pick a goalie at #2 Rexall will be burnt to the ground. So let's put that one to rest.
The Oilers highend forwards are playing in the NHL right now. Their best defensive prospects are not. At this point their prospect pool is loaded with very good dmen and is pretty sparse up front. So for the sake of balance you recommend choosing a dman?
To be honest if Larsson was in the pool, I'd be fully onside. But despite the hype about this being the draft for dmen, it seems there are legitimate questions about pretty much every one of the top dmen.
I love Dumba and think he will be able to translate his skills to the NHL. Murray is safer, but has potentially less upside. With both there are lots of people in the know wondering if they will be 1st pairing dmen. In fact, at this point it is not clear that either is a very big upgrade on Klefbom, who was a WJHC allstar and is currently playing very well in the SEL despite being only a few months older than Murray.
I don't know anyone who does not expect that the chances are high that Grigorenko and Galchenyuk will be significantly better than Gagner. And if they turn out to be the Oilers end up with a very strong 1-2 punch down the middle, something that almost every top team has.
Liquor makes a number of legitimate points. But I think you are mistaken if you think other Oiler fans simply don't get it. We know this team has lots of holes. No one player is going to fill them all.
I am no Canucks fan, but it is clear that they have had success without ever having a true high end dman. The same could be said of the Sharks.
Now if you want Stanley Cup champs rather than regular season warriors, you have Pittsburgh, Carolina and Tampa.
So no matter how you label it there are successful teams that had a solid to very good defense without a clear top end star.
To be honest Potter is a red herring, and I am sure you know it. Of course the Oilers are not going to be successful with him as the ppqb. But realistically how long do you expect that to continue?
I think that out of Smid, Schultz and Petry you have the makings of a solid top 4. We disagree on Whitney's longterm prospects, though far less so than we did at the beginning of the season. But to be honest I am not convinced that the gap between Dumba and guys like Klefbom, Maricicn and Gernat is so big that one of these 3 cannot fill the missing spot.
In the end though you don't have to sell me on why Dumba would be great to have on the Oilers. I already believe that. But so far you have not convinced me that he will have more impact than a guy like Grigorenko or Galchenyuk.
Tampa had Dan Boyle at his peak, so they shouldnt be included. As for Carolina, they were paper champions and I dont believe they have even made the playoffs since they won the cup. Pittsburgh could be considered having no #1dman, although they have a pretty good one now, and when they didnt have one, they had the best player in the world, which cant really be duplicated.
Potter a red herring? Not with the current coaching staff and a two year extension in place. I could see Renney trotting out Potter on the pp for the next couple of years very easily, if he is around to do so of course.
Petry and Smid are good bets going forward, a little early to be counting on Schultz for anything. Dumba is already much better than Musil, Gernat, Marincin and Klefbom. Im suprised that you would suggest otherwise tbh. Of course Dumba is much younger than all of the above, and is one of the youngest players in this draft year.
Grigorenko/Galchenyuk may start sooner than Dumba, but they will inevitably be in the #2 slot both at C and on the pp. So their TOI will reflect that. Say about 15-16min a night. Dumba is capable of playing up to thirty, but most likely will be playing 20-25min in his prime. That's a rough difference of 10minutes a night. Every night. I also doubt that Grigs or Gally would ever be used on the pk either, but it is possible that Dumba or Murray or another top end dman from the draft would be.
Take the best player available. If it happens to be a forward, try to make a deal for Dman using Paajarvi, Gagner, etc. as trade bait in the off season.
I think people are over valuing Gagner. He is not worth Gormley or any other high end prospect. At best he is worth a 2nd round pick. Apart from an 8 point game he has been somewhat of a disappointment for his draft location.
First of all, if the Oilers pick a goalie at #2 Rexall will be burnt to the ground. So let's put that one to rest.
The Oilers highend forwards are playing in the NHL right now. Their best defensive prospects are not. At this point their prospect pool is loaded with very good dmen and is pretty sparse up front. So for the sake of balance you recommend choosing a dman?
To be honest if Larsson was in the pool, I'd be fully onside. But despite the hype about this being the draft for dmen, it seems there are legitimate questions about pretty much every one of the top dmen.
I love Dumba and think he will be able to translate his skills to the NHL. Murray is safer, but has potentially less upside. With both there are lots of people in the know wondering if they will be 1st pairing dmen. In fact, at this point it is not clear that either is a very big upgrade on Klefbom, who was a WJHC allstar and is currently playing very well in the SEL despite being only a few months older than Murray.
I don't know anyone who does not expect that the chances are high that Grigorenko and Galchenyuk will be significantly better than Gagner. And if they turn out to be the Oilers end up with a very strong 1-2 punch down the middle, something that almost every top team has.
Liquor makes a number of legitimate points. But I think you are mistaken if you think other Oiler fans simply don't get it. We know this team has lots of holes. No one player is going to fill them all.
Obviously. But if Gagner is as good as you guys lead us to believe then passing over to a defender can't hurt too bad can it?
And I'd laugh my *** off if they picked a goalie at two. Don't worry. I'm just saying at SOME point they should pick one.
Tampa had Dan Boyle at his peak, so they shouldnt be included. As for Carolina, they were paper champions and I dont believe they have even made the playoffs since they won the cup. Pittsburgh could be considered having no #1dman, although they have a pretty good one now, and when they didnt have one, they had the best player in the world, which cant really be duplicated.
Potter a red herring? Not with the current coaching staff and a two year extension in place. I could see Renney trotting out Potter on the pp for the next couple of years very easily, if he is around to do so of course.
Petry and Smid are good bets going forward, a little early to be counting on Schultz for anything. Dumba is already much better than Musil, Gernat, Marincin and Klefbom. Im suprised that you would suggest otherwise tbh. Of course Dumba is much younger than all of the above, and is one of the youngest players in this draft year.
Grigorenko/Galchenyuk may start sooner than Dumba, but they will inevitably be in the #2 slot both at C and on the pp. So their TOI will reflect that. Say about 15-16min a night. Dumba is capable of playing up to thirty, but most likely will be playing 20-25min in his prime. That's a rough difference of 10minutes a night. Every night. I also doubt that Grigs or Gally would ever be used on the pk either, but it is possible that Dumba or Murray or another top end dman from the draft would be.
Ok. I'll give you Boyle, though interestingly enough he was never drafted!
Don't get me started on Renney's decisions with respect to how he uses players on the pp. But Potter is a red herring. Renney or not there is no chance he is running the pp for much longer. That said, as much as I like Dumba I doubt he makes the Oilers next year. I would bet they would send him back because of his age and because of his size relative to how he plays. But mostly, I think they send him back because it is much harder for a dman to make the jump straight out of junior than it was for someone like the Nuge. So even if you pick Dumba, Potter is still a factor for one more year.
Again, you know that I love Dumba. His skill set is quite unique. And if I had the choice I would absolutely pick him over Klefbom. But I don't think either one of us can say that he is much better at this point. Klefbom is now playing significant minutes on a team in the SEL with lots of depth on the backend. He was a WJHC allstar, and deserved the award. I don't see the offensive upside in him that Dumba has, but it is really too early to declare which of these two will have the greatest career. Klefbom is a year older than Dumba but all of 2 months older than Murray.
Obviously. But if Gagner is as good as you guys lead us to believe then passing over to a defender can't hurt too bad can it?
And I'd laugh my *** off if they picked a goalie at two. Don't worry. I'm just saying at SOME point they should pick one.
Gagner is a decent #2 center. The debate on whether or not he is the guy to go forward with is certainly heated amongst Oiler fans. Personally, I don't think he complements the teams top players, particularly RNH. I'd look to upgrade even if they pick a dman.
As long as defencemen take to mature, goalies are even more long-term. It's pretty hard to see the Oilers correcting their goaltending issues in the next few years with someone they draft this year. And while I am sure you know this, the Oilers did draft 4 goalies in the last 3 years so it is not like they never do so.
They are definitely taking a D. Forwards are usually the sexier picks but it would be stupid to pick another instead of a top end D-man.
Stupid to draft by need instead of best player available.
That Parise guy is so small. We have Todd Marchand and Comrie as our centers and both are small.
Oilers trade down and draft Marc Pouliot. New Jersey gets Parise. A year later neither center is even on the team.
Who knows what trades can happen over the summer and maybe d is a weakness in june and by august isnt. Ever since that draft best player available and if one of the russian forwards is as good as Hall or RNH are trade them for a dman as they will have more value anyways
Ok. I'll give you Boyle, though interestingly enough he was never drafted!
Don't get me started on Renney's decisions with respect to how he uses players on the pp. But Potter is a red herring. Renney or not there is no chance he is running the pp for much longer. That said, as much as I like Dumba I doubt he makes the Oilers next year. I would bet they would send him back because of his age and because of his size relative to how he plays. But mostly, I think they send him back because it is much harder for a dman to make the jump straight out of junior than it was for someone like the Nuge. So even if you pick Dumba, Potter is still a factor for one more year.
Again, you know that I love Dumba. His skill set is quite unique. And if I had the choice I would absolutely pick him over Klefbom. But I don't think either one of us can say that he is much better at this point. Klefbom is now playing significant minutes on a team in the SEL with lots of depth on the backend. He was a WJHC allstar, and deserved the award. I don't see the offensive upside in him that Dumba has, but it is really too early to declare which of these two will have the greatest career. Klefbom is a year older than Dumba but all of 2 months older than Murray.
To me it makes no difference whether Dumba could play next year or not, and I tend to agree that the wise choice would be another year in Red Deer. The Oilers arent going anywhere next year and will likely be a lottery team again, at which point they can then look at getting their center, whether that be MacKinnon, Monahan or someone else.
If you load up with another forward, particularly a center, then the void between forwards and defense on the Oilers becomes even larger, and you put yourself in a precarious position next year picking from the lottery.
Say you go with Grigorenko this year, and then next year, you are in a position to take Pulock. Will he be ready to step right into the nhl after his draft year? How many years of development will he need? Wouldnt that put the Oilers even further behind in the rebuild?
What happens if the Oilers take Grigorenko and then are staring MacKinnon straight in the face? You take MacKinnon and then what? Run with three top end centers? Trade Grigorenko? For who exactly? Will you have to take a hit because the market isnt paying full value for Grigorenko? Will you be getting damaged goods in return?
All of these nasty hypotheticals can be avoided by taking a dman this year. That way you are flexible in who you take next year. Personally I like the crop of forwards next year much better than this year.
No way, they are much better in many areas like special teams and goal differential than 3 years ago. The record may not show it, but the ingredients are there to improve. Fans just aren't enough at times to realize this.
Problem is the record and all the advanced stats show they are way better
All of these nasty hypotheticals can be avoided by taking a dman this year. That way you are flexible in who you take next year. Personally I like the crop of forwards next year much better than this year.
We have drafted our dmen. They are maturing in the minors and overseas right now. And they probably arrive about the same time that Dumba is ready. A little over a year from now. I still say we grab the 1b centre and try winning 6-5 for a year until we get a goalie and the defensive prospects arrive because we are never going to win anything with Gagner as our second centre.
We have drafted our dmen. They are maturing in the minors and overseas right now. And they probably arrive about the same time that Dumba is ready. A little over a year from now. I still say we grab the 1b centre and try winning 6-5 for a year until we get a goalie and the defensive prospects arrive because we are never going to win anything with Gagner as our second centre.
Never.
Be patient one more year. Take Dumba/Murray, and next year take MacKinnon/Monahan. Then going forward you have the center AND a top d prospect, both likely Canadians.
I like that model much more.
I dont have as much faith as you do in our d prospects. They could end up being snake eyes. Counting on them to solve our problems on d is a recipe for disaster. Some may make it, some may not. The likelihood of all of them turning out as good as weve hoped is likely nothing more than pure fantasy.
Smid and Petry look to be the only two we can count on going forward. Jury is still out on Schultz. Whitney is done. And the others are just place holders.
This guy gets it. Not saying don't pick Grigorenko. I could care less. But if I'm an Oilers fan I'm hoping we get a dman/goalie.
BPA is all well and good but you've had the last two BPA's. If Morgan Rielly is the BPA to the ducks id be horrified if they picked him. Fowler, Rielly, Vatanen, Schultz. Too many PMDs. Different situation, but still. Teams need balance.
Drafting for need in the top 2-3 is a recipe for disaster. You almost always go for BPA and worry about needs later.
In this draft as far as upside is concerned, it appears that the 2 Russians and perhaps add Galchenyuk to that list all have considerably higher upside than the Dmen so if that is indeed the case then the Oilers would be fools to pass on one of the Russians for the Dman if they are drafting in the top 2.
Now, if they are indeed higher on the Dmen than the Russians then they should just trade down a spot or two, gain some assets and pick their guy otherwise, drafting Murray/Dumba in the top 2 would be the dumbest move that they can make.
I would actually be fine with this scenario although i'm starting to lean towards drafting one of the Russian centers but either way, drafting Dumba/Murray at 1 or 2 should not be an option in any scenario especially if Montreal is the team drafting 3rd because i highly doubt that they go with the Dman.
Be patient one more year. Take Dumba/Murray, and next year take MacKinnon/Monahan. Then going forward you have the center AND a top d prospect, both likely Canadians.
I like that model much more.
I dont have as much faith as you do in our d prospects. They could end up being snake eyes. Counting on them to solve our problems on d is a recipe for disaster. Some may make it, some may not. The likelihood of all of them turning out as good as weve hoped is likely nothing more than pure fantasy.
Smid and Petry look to be the only two we can count on going forward. Jury is still out on Schultz. Whitney is done. And the others are just place holders.
It's ridiculous to depend on drafting in the lottery again next year to get the center.
If the Oilers are in that position again then everybody should be and probably will be fired.
