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Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXX (TDL Pregame)

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Old
02-24-2017, 01:10 PM
  #1
g00n
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Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXX (TDL Pregame)

previous: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=2185451


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02-24-2017, 01:13 PM
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Valhuen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sycamore View Post
St Louis fans have zero interest in Grubs + 1st rd pick for Shattenkirk. They want Vrana, nothing less.
Yeah...no. 1st I would be fine with (likely to be the 30th pick in a terrible draft year), but adding Vrana just for a pure rental? Nah.

Grubs has value at the deadline to net us an asset more likely to remain with the Caps next year. If rumors are true, we could not afford Shattenkirk at 7m a year at any rate (even if he did want to re-sign).

Save Grubs & Vrana for an offer better suited to our needs.

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02-24-2017, 01:13 PM
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Copied from last thread


Once their three stud finally got used to playing together in a new system it was only a matter of time, then the scoring depth could not be matched. Look at how the Caps played them. Fair to say that even with Kuzy missing the top 6 beat the pens top 6 which would usually win a series. Yet the Pens have Phil Kessel on the 3rd line which was too much to handle and the HBK line dominated because they had the talent to take over an entire series. Does Burakovsky-Eller-Connolly have that ability to take over a series???? No!

Flip the script to this season what is different. The Penguins still have their three studs going and arguably better than last year. Not healthy right now but that just means they will have fresh guys come playoff time.


It is very intimidating when everyone in the Metro is openly trying to add and trying to get better and the Caps are comfortable to stand pat. Look at the record vs. Metro teams this year its under .500. With all those teams getting better and the potential of having to play 3 Metro teams to get to the finals the Caps have to add.

21 games of intense pressure is a very long time to get to the finals, is this roster right now built for that?

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02-24-2017, 01:21 PM
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Never forget the reason we added Erat was because Laich tore his groin into swiss cheese. #PileonLaich

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02-24-2017, 01:28 PM
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Originally Posted by OV Rocks View Post
Copied from last thread


Once their three stud finally got used to playing together in a new system it was only a matter of time, then the scoring depth could not be matched. Look at how the Caps played them. Fair to say that even with Kuzy missing the top 6 beat the pens top 6 which would usually win a series. Yet the Pens have Phil Kessel on the 3rd line which was too much to handle and the HBK line dominated because they had the talent to take over an entire series. Does Burakovsky-Eller-Connolly have that ability to take over a series???? No!

Flip the script to this season what is different. The Penguins still have their three studs going and arguably better than last year. Not healthy right now but that just means they will have fresh guys come playoff time.


It is very intimidating when everyone in the Metro is openly trying to add and trying to get better and the Caps are comfortable to stand pat. Look at the record vs. Metro teams this year its under .500. With all those teams getting better and the potential of having to play 3 Metro teams to get to the finals the Caps have to add.

21 games of intense pressure is a very long time to get to the finals, is this roster right now built for that?
We are entering a very interesting period of finding out. This is the first time we have faced significant injuries to multiple players this season. Guess it's good it happened just before the tdl, giving GMBM a few games to see how the banged up lineup and the rookies from Hershey respond.

If we collapse the next few games, would at least hope GMBM attempts to pull the trigger on some viable trades.

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02-24-2017, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Never forget the reason we added Erat was because Laich tore his groin into swiss cheese. #PileonLaich
So in essence we can blame Laich for losing Forsberg?

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02-24-2017, 02:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Never forget the reason we added Erat was because Laich tore his groin into swiss cheese. #PileonLaich
In which Erat was promptly hurt. And then the "head coach" put Erat at 3C the following season. For as terrible a trade that was, Erat never really got a chance to play the role he was brought here for. It makes the dysfunction between McPhee and Oates that much worse.

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02-24-2017, 02:41 PM
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Did a quick look. HBK have 26 non ppg as of today. Eller Connolly and Burakovsky have 30

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02-24-2017, 02:43 PM
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Am I loosing my mind or wasn't the HBK line the Pens' second line that included Kessel?

Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd View Post
Did a quick look. HBK have 26 non ppg as of today. Eller Connolly and Burakovsky have 30
Imagine that. The "league" figured out they were just flinging the puck up the ice and then "skating in front of you" (interfering).


Last edited by LetsGoBears: 02-24-2017 at 02:50 PM.
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Old
02-24-2017, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
Did a quick look. HBK have 26 non ppg as of today. Eller Connolly and Burakovsky have 30
Shooting percentage (2017/career):
Hagelin (5.1%/8.8%)
Bonino (8.1%/10.1%)
Kessel (12.6%/10.8%)

Connolly (19%/10.9%)
Eller (11.6%/10.1%)
Burakovsky (12.9%/13.1%)

I'm not going to put any money on BC10 continuing to shoot 19%.

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02-24-2017, 02:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hivemind View Post
Shooting percentage (2017/career):
Hagelin (5.1%/8.8%)
Bonino (8.1%/10.1%)
Kessel (12.6%/10.8%)

Connolly (19%/10.9%)
Eller (11.6%/10.1%)
Burakovsky (12.9%/13.1%)

I'm not going to put any money on BC10 continuing to shoot 19%.
While I don't think 19% is sustainable; I don't think his 10.9% career is completely accurate.

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Old
02-24-2017, 02:56 PM
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Crosby on on. Malkin on one. Kessel on one.

Quick check. Pens have 3 guys with 20 plus. The caps have 2. Pens have 1 with 17. The caps have 3 with 18 or 19. The pens have one other with over over 10. The caps have 5 at 10 plus.

Not sure what more you want

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02-24-2017, 02:58 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hivemind View Post
Shooting percentage (2017/career):
Hagelin (5.1%/8.8%)
Bonino (8.1%/10.1%)
Kessel (12.6%/10.8%)

Connolly (19%/10.9%)
Eller (11.6%/10.1%)
Burakovsky (12.9%/13.1%)

I'm not going to put any money on BC10 continuing to shoot 19%.
If you take away half of connolly's goals they are still even

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Old
02-24-2017, 03:02 PM
  #14
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I agree with Langway/twabby -- I would spend the 1st on a target that would make them significantly better, but I don't know if there is one. I would not sell the farm for Shattenkirk, as tempting as it is hypothetically to round out the defense like that.

Overall, if there's to be any "medium-impact" add, I think I'd rather it be a forward. Caps can't play it safe and try to really insure against a guy like Niskanen going down. They ought to try to maximize "everybody is healthy" performance, IMO.

Against a team like the Pens, I think it'll come down to the simple "who can tilt the ice". Who can put more pressure on the opponents' D. Possession. Beagle is a bit suspect in that regard, and IMO so is the 2nd line -- their stats look pretty good, but I'm not sure whether they can do it against top teams.

Hence, look at a guy like Boyle, with added bonus of C depth; maybe some middle-6 guy with a motor (Eaves?).

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02-24-2017, 03:14 PM
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Stat boys! What's the typical drop-off in shooting % between regular and postseason?

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02-24-2017, 03:18 PM
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txpd, per your own math, HBK has 26 while the Caps 3rd line has 30. So, no, taking away half of Connolly's ESGs (5.5 of 11), that would put the Caps 3rd line just behind HBK.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGoBears View Post
While I don't think 19% is sustainable; I don't think his 10.9% career is completely accurate.
Why not? 10.9% is a more than respectable career shooting%. It's essentially equal with Phil Kessel's career sh%. Burakovsky is the only guy of those 6 with significantly above it, and he's still young enough that his shooting rates are fairly volatile. The average among NHL forwards from 2005-2013 was 10.82% (and has likely fallen slightly in the years since then, as sv% have continued to climb).

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02-24-2017, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCupFantasy View Post
Stat boys! What's the typical drop-off in shooting % between regular and postseason?
Regular season since 2007-08: 9.08%
Playoffs since 2007-08: 8.72%

So a dropoff of 0.36%.

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02-24-2017, 03:28 PM
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negligible....good to know thx.

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02-24-2017, 03:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twabby View Post
Regular season since 2007-08: 9.08%
Playoffs since 2007-08: 8.72%

So a dropoff of 0.36%.
The number is magnified by the 7 game series too. Need goals which means need goal scorers

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02-24-2017, 05:00 PM
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Never forget the reason we added Erat was because Laich tore his groin into swiss cheese. #PileonLaich
That's not quite the way it happened. Laich was returning from injury at the TDL that year. Pretty sure the game after the TDL was his first game back, and without a crystal ball that meant we were getting back a guy we really liked.

Regardless about how anyone felt about the trade, the result was that we'd already been playing well at that point, were getting Laich back finally fully healed (ha!), and just added an impact top-6 guy that averaged 50 points a year playing for a defensive team.

I hated that trade from the jump as I'm sure most of us did, but at that moment there WAS a sense of, "We've been resurgent of late and Laich and Erat make us even better." And Latta sounded like he had upside, too.

Then, of course, Laich went right back in the toilet, Erat got hurt and Oates kept him in the doghouse for whatever reason, Latta didn't pan out like we'd hoped, and Forsberg became a star. That trade stunk outright, but man, hindsight has really piled on since.

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02-24-2017, 05:05 PM
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Eaves goes to Anaheim for a second that, along the lines of the Gilbert deal, is conditional and can turn into a first if they get to the Conference Finals and he plays half their games. We'll probably see more of those type deals. Jurco also off my board to Chicago for a third.

The upside with many of the sub-$2M depth adds is they ought to be open to sticking around next season at a reasonable price unless they totally go off in the playoffs. Or, in the case of the more expensive D depth options that would require salary retention, maybe there's room or a willingness to make it should they move on from Alzner and have a short-term need/fit.

BTW, with Ness & Barber up CapFriendly has the Caps at a mere ~$1.1M in projected deadline cap space. When those two are assigned that will bump it up a bit but not a whole lot so, again, the cap is the most restrictive limitation they're working with. It takes them out of the running for some higher AAV rental options unless they move Winnik and, despite his lack of playoff production, that seems unlikely.

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02-24-2017, 05:11 PM
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There's also the possibility of salary retention from the other team, but that can only be up to 50% of the cap hit. So every $1 the Caps spend on call-ups is a potential $2 they can't spend at the deadline.


That's why I'm glad Barber is seeing game action. If they're going to be calling players up, at least get some value out of them. Don't just give them the extra paycheck and a vacation away from Hershey.

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02-24-2017, 05:14 PM
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Quote:
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That's not quite the way it happened. Laich was returning from injury at the TDL that year.....
I have long thought we got a top 6 because we had a top 6 injured.

Both were 2LWs. It seems pretty obvious why we got him to me. Oates immediately stuck Erat at RW, and the rest is history.

If you heard George say otherwise, George lies. And he wouldn't say he didn't trust the rebuilt Brooks, regardless.

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02-24-2017, 05:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hivemind View Post
There's also the possibility of salary retention from the other team, but that can only be up to 50% of the cap hit. So every $1 the Caps spend on call-ups is a potential $2 they can't spend at the deadline.
Right. There is some flexibility but when it comes to options like Iginla or Sharp it's no easy fit (and perhaps there's no willingness to make room for them in every sense anyhow).

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02-24-2017, 05:23 PM
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Kinda strange that Dallas trades Eaves within conference, but oh well.

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