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Is Halak a product of his team?

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He is a product of his team. 23 13.53%
He is able to carry a team and he is doing it with Blues to some extent. 27 15.88%
He is a good goalie on a good team. 120 70.59%
Voters: 170. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-10-2012, 12:59 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Nicko999 View Post
Halak is a top 10 goaltender in the NHL... problem is, he can't play more than 60 games per season so you have to have a decent backup.
45 games*

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03-10-2012, 01:14 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by CuDi View Post
Leave Halak out of that and your right. He was great before StL anyways.

He's only 26 too so there's a lot of potential.
still played under Martin in a defense first system before Hitch. The only time he was "bad" was when he didnt play in a defensive system last October.

That said, yes hes still young, but hes been very fortunate so far in his career.

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03-10-2012, 01:30 PM
  #53
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Well in the 64 games prior to Hitchcock in St. Louis Halak had a .906 SV%. Hard to argue the system isn't helping him significantly.

He's a good goalie but an elite goalie IMO

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03-10-2012, 02:26 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by price131 View Post
Well in the 64 games prior to Hitchcock in St. Louis Halak had a .906 SV%. Hard to argue the system isn't helping him significantly.

He's a good goalie but an elite goalie IMO
And the season before with Montreal? Last season we were hit hard with injuries and he had a ton of expectations with his first season as the full time starter and a new team.

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03-10-2012, 02:27 PM
  #55
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Obviously stats are more important than actually watching someone play.

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03-10-2012, 02:36 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
Obviously stats are more important than actually watching someone play.
I've watched him play a ton and it completely backs up what I think, he's a good goalie capable of getting hot but he's not an elite guy and his stats are inflated right now.

A great team doesn't make a goalie but if you're looking at things like SV%, wins or GAA it definitely inflates them.

He's a good goalie, probably somewhere between 10th - 15th in the league.

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03-10-2012, 02:51 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by price131 View Post
I've watched him play a ton and it completely backs up what I think, he's a good goalie capable of getting hot but he's not an elite guy and his stats are inflated right now.

A great team doesn't make a goalie but if you're looking at things like SV%, wins or GAA it definitely inflates them.

He's a good goalie, probably somewhere between 10th - 15th in the league.
The argument against him early in the season was his low SV%, now that it is among the best in the league, it is also being held against him. Since Halak typically faces the lowest amounts of shots around the league, the fact that he has a really high SV% speaks volumes of his talent level. The arguments against Halak never fail to amuse me.

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03-10-2012, 03:08 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
The argument against him early in the season was his low SV%, now that it is among the best in the league, it is also being held against him. Since Halak typically faces the lowest amounts of shots around the league, the fact that he has a really high SV% speaks volumes of his talent level. The arguments against Halak never fail to amuse me.
I don't even understand what you're arguing, seems like it's just some kind of defensive mechanism in favor of your favorite goalie. I never mentioned his low SV% early in the season. I only mentioned that his stats are extremely higher under Hitchcock. My opinion of him is the same as it was when his stats were mediocre last season and awful in October. He's good. TBH I don't really use SV% to assess goalies, ever. The fact that his SV% was so low for most of his tenure with the Blues and so high under Hitchcock just illustrates how team reliant of a stat it is.

I've felt the same about him all season. I'm happy he's having success, but do you think he's one of the top 5-6 goalies in the world? I've seen him a ton and I just don't see it, and I definitely don't see it with Elliott either but that's OK.

If you look at a goalie's stats on a great defensive team, they tend to be inflated. Halak's under Hitchcock are pretty clearly inflated. He's never played at that level, not in St. Louis, not in Montreal. Never. Not even close.

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03-10-2012, 03:50 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by price131 View Post
I don't even understand what you're arguing, seems like it's just some kind of defensive mechanism in favor of your favorite goalie. I never mentioned his low SV% early in the season. I only mentioned that his stats are extremely higher under Hitchcock. My opinion of him is the same as it was when his stats were mediocre last season and awful in October. He's good. TBH I don't really use SV% to assess goalies, ever. The fact that his SV% was so low for most of his tenure with the Blues and so high under Hitchcock just illustrates how team reliant of a stat it is.

I've felt the same about him all season. I'm happy he's having success, but do you think he's one of the top 5-6 goalies in the world? I've seen him a ton and I just don't see it, and I definitely don't see it with Elliott either but that's OK.

If you look at a goalie's stats on a great defensive team, they tend to be inflated. Halak's under Hitchcock are pretty clearly inflated. He's never played at that level, not in St. Louis, not in Montreal. Never. Not even close.
Okay price131, lol.

Halak's two "full" years in Montreal (under Martin): 0.920 SV% (2266/2463)
Halak's two "full" years in St. Louis (under Payne/Hitchcock): 0.918 SV% (2289/2497)

Not even close, really, lol. That's almost a full 5000 shot sample size, which is pretty decently big, and covers a few different systems, rosters, opposition, situations, roles, etc. Maybe, just maybe, he is a 0.918-0.920 goalie, which is pretty damn good. Means his 0.926 is certainly "inflated" (and perhaps his 0.910 was deflated equally "naturally"), but maybe he isn't quite as "average" (or below) as the residual Price fanboy propaganda suggests. Also not surprising that you base your opinion of him on everything AFTER the 2010 playoffs.

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03-10-2012, 04:02 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Okay price131, lol.

Halak's two "full" years in Montreal (under Martin): 0.920 SV% (2266/2463)
Halak's two "full" years in St. Louis (under Payne/Hitchcock): 0.918 SV% (2289/2497)

Not even close, really, lol. That's almost a full 5000 shot sample size, which is pretty decently big, and covers a few different systems, rosters, opposition, situations, roles, etc. Maybe, just maybe, he is a 0.918-0.920 goalie, which is pretty damn good. Means his 0.926 is certainly "inflated" (and perhaps his 0.910 was deflated equally "naturally"), but maybe he isn't quite as "average" (or below) as the residual Price fanboy propaganda suggests. Also not surprising that you base your opinion of him on everything AFTER the 2010 playoffs.
Well you're clearly misrepresenting what I said, as suggested by your selective highlighting. I said the way he's played under Hitchcock is unlike anything he's ever done, anywhere. He has a .940 SV% in 32 games since Hitchcock took over. That is unlike anything he's ever done. In Montreal, in St. Louis prior to Hitchcock. Anywhere. That's all I said. Your big production was worthless and baseless.

Also, I said his .910 and slow start were never things I considered, I was illustrating how big team/system can impact SV%. The truth probably lies somewhere between last year and this year which is again, what I said. I called him a top 10-15 goalie in the world, do you disagree?

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03-10-2012, 04:12 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by price131 View Post
I don't even understand what you're arguing, seems like it's just some kind of defensive mechanism in favor of your favorite goalie. I never mentioned his low SV% early in the season. I only mentioned that his stats are extremely higher under Hitchcock. My opinion of him is the same as it was when his stats were mediocre last season and awful in October. He's good. TBH I don't really use SV% to assess goalies, ever. The fact that his SV% was so low for most of his tenure with the Blues and so high under Hitchcock just illustrates how team reliant of a stat it is.

I've felt the same about him all season. I'm happy he's having success, but do you think he's one of the top 5-6 goalies in the world? I've seen him a ton and I just don't see it, and I definitely don't see it with Elliott either but that's OK.

If you look at a goalie's stats on a great defensive team, they tend to be inflated. Halak's under Hitchcock are pretty clearly inflated. He's never played at that level, not in St. Louis, not in Montreal. Never. Not even close.
Not you specifically, but the typical argument against Halak being a top 10 goalie earlier was that he had a lower sv%. Now that his sv% is greatly improved, those same people, again not you specifically, now simply say it is because of Halak.

Our record setting defense is not solely because of Hitchcock. Yes, it wouldn't be where it is at if it wasn't for Hitchcock, but the same can be said for Pietrangelo, Halak, and Elliott.

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03-10-2012, 06:13 PM
  #62
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[QUOTE=price131;45845105]I don't even understand what you're arguing, seems like it's just some kind of defensive mechanism in favor of your favorite goalie. I never mentioned his low SV% early in the season. I only mentioned that his stats are extremely higher under Hitchcock. My opinion of him is the same as it was when his stats were mediocre last season and awful in October. He's good. TBH I don't really use SV% to assess goalies, ever. The fact that his SV% was so low for most of his tenure with the Blues and so high under Hitchcock just illustrates how team reliant of a stat it is.

I've felt the same about him all season. I'm happy he's having success, but do you think he's one of the top 5-6 goalies in the world? I've seen him a ton and I just don't see it, and I definitely don't see it with Elliott either but that's OK.

If you look at a goalie's stats on a great defensive team, they tend to be inflated. Halak's under Hitchcock are pretty clearly inflated. He's never played at that level, not in St. Louis, not in Montreal. Never. Not even close.[/QUOTE]

Halak has loads of potential and he's reached it this year, how is that so hard to understand? He makes saves 75% of goalies can't make in the NHL today.

He's top 10 in the league and only getting better.

Watch some Blues games.

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03-10-2012, 06:29 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Okay price131, lol.

Halak's two "full" years in Montreal (under Martin): 0.920 SV% (2266/2463)
Halak's two "full" years in St. Louis (under Payne/Hitchcock): 0.918 SV% (2289/2497)

Not even close, really, lol. That's almost a full 5000 shot sample size, which is pretty decently big, and covers a few different systems, rosters, opposition, situations, roles, etc. Maybe, just maybe, he is a 0.918-0.920 goalie, which is pretty damn good. Means his 0.926 is certainly "inflated" (and perhaps his 0.910 was deflated equally "naturally"), but maybe he isn't quite as "average" (or below) as the residual Price fanboy propaganda suggests. Also not surprising that you base your opinion of him on everything AFTER the 2010 playoffs.
I am a HUGE Price supporter based on his ability, and even I can admit Halak is an amazing goalie. STL fans have a point, you can't use weak save % against him both ways as a negative. People are so quick to put people down to help whatever point they are trying to make. (Not directed towards yourself at all)

Another HUGE issue with save % is this, what were the quality of shots faced? Was it 18 shots a game with 9 major meltdowns, or 30 shots with 3 minor meltdowns. Context means a lot when deciding these things.

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03-10-2012, 07:40 PM
  #64
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Another HUGE issue with save % is this, what were the quality of shots faced? Was it 18 shots a game with 9 major meltdowns, or 30 shots with 3 minor meltdowns. Context means a lot when deciding these things.
If a goalie starts enough games, they face more shots. The more they play, the more shots, and the more different shots. Each game is so different (players, tactics, bounces, randomness, etc, etc), and each shot is so different in so many variables that it's impossible to rank one shot against the next in terms of "quality".

Oh, on a micro level you can say that a shot from outside the blueline isn't as "good" as a shot from the top of the crease. But they do go in from literally everywhere, and while there are shots that goalies "should" stop that they don't, they also make stops that they perhaps "shouldn't". Then there are shots/rebounds that defenses "should" have cleared but weren't, and desperation plays that "shouldn't" have worked, but did. And if someone thinks that it makes sense to compare ratios and success rate of every possible shot, separated into different categories for each velocity, handedness of the shooter, skill of the shooter, shot taken vs what a goalie might expect based on the player he's facing (goalies scout players/shooters), release time of the shot, rate at which the puck carrier is changing the angle as he approaches the net, available passing and tipping options the goalie must consider, point of shot origin, % view obstruction through traffic, target area of shooter, corrections for ease of judging pucks coming in at different trajectories closer to the eye, relative lighting levels in each rink, as any amount of astigmatism in a goalie would prove a greater challenge in lower lit arenas, etc, etc, etc... good luck with that.

Or, you can just keep it simple, stupid. If a goalie only has a small body of work, of course you can't extrapolate too much from it. If a goalie has faced 5000 shots, though, I submit a simple SV% calculation will more "accurately" and precisely give you an idea of the goalie's skill (or simply his performance over the period you study) relative to his peers than any formula that tries to incorporate all of those things in the preceding paragraph (and much, much more, if EVERYTHING is to be accounted for) for every goalie, in every situation, in the league at a given time.

People have just started seriously messing around with shot quality statistically, and I still haven't seen a model that gives us a clearer indication of a goalie's "talent" than their SV% in its current form, with obvious weight being given to the busiest goalies, because the length of the schedule/work load is really the main obstacle, imo; not the different kinds of shots that different goalies have to face behind different teams over an impossibly large and variable sample size for such consideration. I'm kinda tired of the spreading mantra that "shot quality" is some huge burden on the SV% stat. I don't think has proven, yet, that such extensive and cumbersome micro-accounting provides a better "measure" of a goalie (or the work demanded of him) than what has been used (SV%, games played, shots faced, etc) forever (with the proper context, of course).


Last edited by Ohashi_Jouzu: 03-10-2012 at 07:46 PM.
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03-10-2012, 07:47 PM
  #65
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It is also proven that Halak is statistically better when he faces more shots, which is even more impressive with his stats and the low amount of shots that the Blues give up.

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03-10-2012, 07:50 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
If a goalie starts enough games, they face more shots. The more they play, the more shots, and the more different shots. Each game is so different (players, tactics, bounces, randomness, etc, etc), and each shot is so different in so many variables that it's impossible to rank one shot against the next in terms of "quality".

Oh, on a micro level you can say that a shot from outside the blueline isn't as "good" as a shot from the top of the crease. But they do go in from literally everywhere, and while there are shots that goalies "should" stop that they don't, they also make stops that they perhaps "shouldn't". Then there are shots/rebounds that defenses "should" have cleared but weren't, and desperation plays that "shouldn't" have worked, but did. And if someone thinks that it makes sense to compare ratios and success rate of every possible shot, separated into different categories for each velocity, handedness of the shooter, skill of the shooter, shot taken vs what a goalie might expect based on the player he's facing (goalies scout players/shooters), release time of the shot, rate at which the puck carrier is changing the angle as he approaches the net, available passing and tipping options the goalie must consider, point of shot origin, % view obstruction through traffic, target area of shooter, corrections for ease of judging pucks coming in at different trajectories closer to the eye, relative lighting levels in each rink, as any amount of astigmatism in a goalie would prove a greater challenge in lower lit arenas, etc, etc, etc... good luck with that.

Or, you can just keep it simple, stupid. If a goalie only has a small body of work, of course you can't extrapolate too much from it. If a goalie has faced 5000 shots, though, I submit a simple SV% calculation will more "accurately" and precisely give you an idea of the goalie's skill (or simply his performance over the period you study) relative to his peers than any formula that tries to incorporate all of those things in the preceding paragraph for every goalie, in every situation, in the league at a given time.

People have just started seriously messing around with shot quality statistically, and I still haven't seen a model that gives us a clearer indication of a goalie's "talent" than their SV% in its current form, with obvious weight being given to the busiest goalies, because the length of the schedule/work load is really the main obstacle, imo; not the different kinds of shots that different goalies have to face behind different teams over an impossibly large and variable sample size for such consideration.
What about by scoring chances faced / shots on goal. There are set guidelines that each rink is suppose to award them for. I realize the stats at the moment can be bad rink to rink but what if the league tracked them.

My point is this:

A goalie getting 30 shots a game with 5 scoring chances, could look better than a goalie getting 30 shots a game with 10 scoring chances while not really being the better goalie. Obviously this isn't perfect either as the scoring chances can be of different difficulties but I feel it tells more of the story regarding a goalies play. Think of any good goalie on a weak defensive team, I am sure they would love to have other teams systems and D-men clearing those high % scoring chances away.

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03-10-2012, 07:53 PM
  #67
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Halak > Price sorry Habs fans but it's true. You don't trade guys who throw your team on their back through 3 playoff rounds. I thought it a mistake then and still do today.

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03-10-2012, 07:57 PM
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I really apreciate if Habs fan stop posting their BSts here...if they cant admit that Halak is amazing goalie then they should visit nearest psychiatric institute...his stats are now worse in defensive (fans love to use word trapping) system than he had in Montreal with zero defensive help from D so im really curious what will be next excuse from theese fans

im done posting my arguments about Price/Halak bc my last post cost me infraction on Habs forum...so last words...Habs fans : enjoy your overpaid goalie

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03-10-2012, 08:00 PM
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Originally Posted by danisonfire View Post
What about by scoring chances faced / shots on goal. There are set guidelines that each rink is suppose to award them for. I realize the stats at the moment can be bad rink to rink but what if the league tracked them.

My point is this:

A goalie getting 30 shots a game with 5 scoring chances, could look better than a goalie getting 30 shots a game with 10 scoring chances while not really being the better goalie. Obviously this isn't perfect either as the scoring chances can be of different difficulties but I feel it tells more of the story regarding a goalies play. Think of any good goalie on a weak defensive team, I am sure they would love to have other teams systems and D-men clearing those high % scoring chances away.
Yeah, but how many % points is that all worth, if there's supposed to be a "correction factor" for all of it? How do we know that, in effect, the difference with all that considered isn't closer to 0.001 instead of 0.010? Maybe if there was even a halfway reliable "scoring chance" stat that we could all look at, and compare team to team, we could see if goalies who face 2:1 ratios of scoring chances against have lower SV%s than goalies who face even 1:1 chances, and maybe we could even set max and min "constraints" on the effect based on deviations we notice as the disparity increases/decreases.

Maybe. Once I see someone lay out the simplest possible model for accounting for the most influential/impactful aspects of a "shot", I'll start testing it against my own notions of how to rank goalies based on stats AND observation. It's so hopelessly subjective that I doubt anyone will "prove" any time soon that the SV%, in its current form, fails prohibitively at comparing goalies' performances relative to one another given at least a "season"-worth of data.

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03-10-2012, 08:01 PM
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I really apreciate if Habs fan stop posting their BSts here..
<-- Habs fan

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03-10-2012, 08:36 PM
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<-- Habs fan
my apologize...i mean all habs fans which still consider Price as a star goalie and cant recognize Halaks true potential...

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03-10-2012, 08:41 PM
  #72
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Yeah, but how many % points is that all worth, if there's supposed to be a "correction factor" for all of it? How do we know that, in effect, the difference with all that considered isn't closer to 0.001 instead of 0.010? Maybe if there was even a halfway reliable "scoring chance" stat that we could all look at, and compare team to team, we could see if goalies who face 2:1 ratios of scoring chances against have lower SV%s than goalies who face even 1:1 chances, and maybe we could even set max and min "constraints" on the effect based on deviations we notice as the disparity increases/decreases.

Maybe. Once I see someone lay out the simplest possible model for accounting for the most influential/impactful aspects of a "shot", I'll start testing it against my own notions of how to rank goalies based on stats AND observation. It's so hopelessly subjective that I doubt anyone will "prove" any time soon that the SV%, in its current form, fails prohibitively at comparing goalies' performances relative to one another given at least a "season"-worth of data.
I would keep save %, It is still important. I was suggesting better tracking of scoring chances for and against for each team. I want to find those goalies that suffer from poor defensive breakdowns. Hockey is a team sport and if the 5 in front of you are not doing their jobs you can face a lot of high quality scoring chances (these don't help your stats) that a good team may allow less frequently.

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03-11-2012, 11:20 AM
  #73
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my apologize...i mean all habs fans which still consider Price as a star goalie and cant recognize Halaks true potential...
I feel that there are VERY few Habs fans that don`t appreciate Halaks talent and drive, even if the most hopes that Price will turn out to be better goalie in the long term. Both stances aren`t mutually exclusive.

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03-11-2012, 11:23 AM
  #74
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He took a brutal Hab team deeep. He single Handedly won every game

He's awesome

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03-12-2012, 10:15 AM
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Did anyone catch the game last night? It was against a ****** Columbus team that Halak bailed his defense out.

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