He is currently on pace for 99.39 points... so if he maintains this pace, 50/50, but for sure he will hit 95, and if he had not missed those 4 games I would say he would definitely hit 100.
He needs 1.31 ppg to do it
First 16 games of the year: 19 points at 1.19 ppg
Second 16 games: 26 points at 1.63 ppg
Third 16 games: 15 points at 0.94ppg (these games directly after concussion, 5 of these scored in last 3 of that stretch)
Last 14 games: 19 points at 1.36 ppg
Overall averaged: 1.27 ppg
In his last 20 games (which is when I figure he was back to normal after concussion) he is at 27 points, at 1.35 ppg pace. If he maintains this for next 16 games he would finish with 101 points.
Likely scenarios depending on play in ppg terms:
Worst (taking worst stretches over year): 1ppg. Would finish on 95 points
Bad (taking into account worst healthy stretch): 1.19 ppg. Would finish on 98 points
Mid (average over year): 1.27 ppg. Would finish on 99 points
High (taking last 20 games into account): 1.35ppg, 101 points
Best (taking into account best 16 game stretch), 105 points
These guys, Datsyuk, Lupul and Eberle are the only players on for even PPG pace this year... 4-6 other guys have a shot at it, namely Karlsson, Hossa, the Sedins, Elias and Tavares, reckon only 2-3 of them will hit PPG
Shows how dominant Malkin, Stamkos and Giroux have been.
There is also a decent chance no player will hit 100 points, last time that happened was 03-04. Since the expansion this has only happened three times (excluding lock out shortened season.) 99-00, 01-02, 03-04.
If Malkin wins the Art Ross, he will be the first new multiple winner since Jagr in 97-98. (Though to be fair, between 1980-81 and 2000-01, only three guys won it! Gretzky, Lemieux and Jagr.)
I believe a lot rides on how Hartnell and Jagr do... if Harts has a real hot stretch or two, Giroux will get many more Assists... if Jagr stays in the lineup, Giroux benefits down the stretch as well. The three together, healthy and playing well bodes well for G's quest.
Also, PP time and First Unit proficiency means a lot also... The Flyers have more PP chances than any other team in the League -- by far IIRC -- and when they are clicking, they amass quite a few goals... I believe I read that Giroux has more PP points than anyone in the NHL, and I know Hartnell has more goals which goes a long way in explaining Giroux's position.
Playing time down the stretch can add to the mix... a maintenance game off at the end, or giving him less minutes in games could effect his total... I don't imagine Lavy or the Flyers would risk a drained Giroux for a 100 point season for a player. Conversely, a tight seeding race and added minutes and urgency could add points.
I think it will be close... and I'm leaning to it depending on if Hartnell goes on another hot streak... My money's on Giroux.
I was just going back and looking at some old Giroux threads, and I found one (from 2009) where BobbyClarkeFan16 said that in a few years, Giroux will be a 100 point scorer and a scoring leader alongside Malkin: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...=670427&page=2
Everyone told him to chill out and stop putting G on a pedestal, and now this thread exists.
I was just going back and looking at some old Giroux threads, and I found one (from 2009) where BobbyClarkeFan16 said that in a few years, Giroux will be a 100 point scorer and a scoring leader alongside Malkin: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...=670427&page=2
Everyone told him to chill out and stop putting G on a pedestal, and now this thread exists.
lol......it's all good. I've seen Giroux numerous times when he played in Gatineau (I'm originally from the Ottawa area) and knew back when he was going to be very special. There are some players that you can just see greatness in and Giroux was one of those players. You can't teach the skill that he has and more important, he's got the drive in which he wants to be the best. Anyways, I think it's great that the Flyers drafted what could be considered the best player of that draft year.
lol......it's all good. I've seen Giroux numerous times when he played in Gatineau (I'm originally from the Ottawa area) and knew back when he was going to be very special. There are some players that you can just see greatness in and Giroux was one of those players. You can't teach the skill that he has and more important, he's got the drive in which he wants to be the best. Anyways, I think it's great that the Flyers drafted what could be considered the best player of that draft year.
Great call on that... he is touch and go for 100 points in the fourth lowest (individual scoring) year since 1968! And if he had not missed those 4 games he'd have been a lock!
I think a lot of flyers fans knew he was going to be something special in the 08-09 playoffs... my moment of realization was this:
I felt like bumping that thread a week ago, but decided against it.
Here is to hoping Roo can bring us a championship; after that I'll start worrying about him have a 100pt year. Either way would be fun to see a Flyer with 100pts.
Would really be something to see him get there. Without looking it up I would guess Lindros and Recchi would be our last two players to reach triple digits. Malkin, despite having absolutely no defensive skill or PK skill, will probably end up winning the Hart anyway although I would argue that Giroux's overall game of being good in his own end, a vital PK asset, and still tallying those numbers makes him a better candidate.
We have never had an Art Ross trophy winner and Lindros was our last Hart, so just to see it happen would be nice but compared to a Cup I could care less, they are just nice bonuses.
EDIT: Also now that Crosby's returning potentially this week against the Rangers, I would expect some of Malkin's ice time and production to take a slight hit, maybe just enough to give Roux the points (which is all anyone looks at for Hart 95% of the time) to get the votes for Hart.
Would really be something to see him get there. Without looking it up I would guess Lindros and Recchi would be our last two players to reach triple digits. Malkin, despite having absolutely no defensive skill or PK skill, will probably end up winning the Hart anyway although I would argue that Giroux's overall game of being good in his own end, a vital PK asset, and still tallying those numbers makes him a better candidate.
We have never had an Art Ross trophy winner and Lindros was our last Hart, so just to see it happen would be nice but compared to a Cup I could care less, they are just nice bonuses.
EDIT: Also now that Crosby's returning potentially this week against the Rangers, I would expect some of Malkin's ice time and production to take a slight hit, maybe just enough to give Roux the points (which is all anyone looks at for Hart 95% of the time) to get the votes for Hart.
I think Giroux has no shot at the Hart Trophy, even if he catches Malkin/Stamkos. The voters are just going to see Malkin doing it "by himself" without Crosby, while Giroux had Jagr, Hartnell, etc. I know the Pens have more than just Malkin, but Malkin putting up gobs of points without Crosby there looks more like an MVP than Giroux doing it with a supporting cast. Think of it this way, Penguins without Malkin are in a worse situation than the Flyers without Giroux. Malkin is gonna win and deserves it. Giroux could nab the Art Ross though.
If anyone gets a nod, I'd believe it would be Stamkos, as he is truely shining on a bad team this year. Malkin benefits off Neal the same way Giroux does off Hartnell.
If anyone gets a nod, I'd believe it would be Stamkos, as he is truely shining on a bad team this year. Malkin benefits off Neal the same way Giroux does off Hartnell.
Yeah but that's the thing, Stamkos is doing great on a bad defensive team. Without Stamkos the the Lightning would be worse, for sure, but without Malkin (and Crosby) I don't see the Pens as a playoff team. Stamkos is running away with the Richard trophy and could also grab the Art Ross, but I think the Hart is as good as Malkin's. Stamkos has a solid supporting cast around him, it's just the defense (most GA in the league) that seems to be killing TB.
I think Giroux has no shot at the Hart Trophy, even if he catches Malkin/Stamkos. The voters are just going to see Malkin doing it "by himself" without Crosby, while Giroux had Jagr, Hartnell, etc. I know the Pens have more than just Malkin, but Malkin putting up gobs of points without Crosby there looks more like an MVP than Giroux doing it with a supporting cast. Think of it this way, Penguins without Malkin are in a worse situation than the Flyers without Giroux. Malkin is gonna win and deserves it. Giroux could nab the Art Ross though.
Malkin's linemates are better than a 40 year old winger and someone who is typically a grinder/garbage goal scorer, nothing against Jagr or Hartnell. Neal has been emerging the last two years before having his breakout season, and Kunitz has been a solid linemate of Crosby and Malkin for seasons. With Jagr's injuries and lack of speed throughout the season and Hartnell's penalty's and the fact that he isn't your typical top line player, I'd say Malkin has better finishers as linemates. As a goal scorer I think Malkin has the edge over G, being that hes a gifted playmaker.
Hart Trophy SHOULD be for the best overall player however the voters love to go with the sexy and safe pick which is Malkin whom has absolutely no backchecking or defensive skill at all. The MVP of the Pen's is the shootout, without it they would be the 7th/8th seed right now.
Last edited by Brostradamus: 03-11-2012 at 05:59 PM.
