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2011-2012 Anaheim Ducks Prospects Update Part II ‎

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05-09-2012, 01:02 AM
  #226
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
You asked me to list reasons why he couldn't hit 40. I gave you several. Nowhere did I categorically state he wouldn't, I said you were stretching it saying he had 40 goal potential. You ignored every point I made and instead paint me as irrational for ignoring your points. How about we let the guy who didn't show up in camp last year and didn't show up for the 2nd round of the WHL playoffs -against better competition- actually show up before we decide he's an elite NHL wing?

Btw, it's not like saying he's potentially a 30G guy is saying he's a bust........
Yes, I asked you to list reasons why he couldn't, not why he wouldn't. There's quite a large difference. You listed nothing to say he isn't capable of it, because you probably can't. You just listed off reasons why he probably won't, which has nothing to do with his potential, but rather his expectations, an original point I made that everyone in the thread missed because they were too busy making a big deal over why he won't do it.

You're not irrational, you just don't know what the word potential means.

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05-09-2012, 01:07 AM
  #227
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Oh please. You basically said he has the talent to be a 40 goal guy, and that you don't understand how people could suggest otherwise. Don't make it sound like the responses came out of no where. Taken in context with what you said, the responses make perfect sense.

Question: "How can you disagree he has the potential to score 40 goals."

Answer: "Because scoring 40 goals is hard, and few players can do it."
I don't understand how anyone can say otherwise. Even when people point out that Ryan and Kessel haven't hit 40 yet, that doesn't mean they don't have 40 goal potential, they absolutely do, they just haven't reached it yet, and might not reach it. No one's ever pointed out anything about his talents, just that in the one time they watched him, he didn't look so great, or how it's hard to do. The latter being a decent reason why he might not, but far from a reason why he can't, the former being absolutely ridiculous.

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05-09-2012, 01:13 AM
  #228
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
I don't understand how anyone can say otherwise. Even when people point out that Ryan and Kessel haven't hit 40 yet, that doesn't mean they don't have 40 goal potential, they absolutely do, they just haven't reached it yet, and might not reach it. No one's ever pointed out anything about his talents, just that in the one time they watched him, he didn't look so great, or how it's hard to do. The latter being a decent reason why he might not, but far from a reason why he can't, the former being absolutely ridiculous.
(groan) With that logic Palmieri has the potential to score 40 goals too, as would just about any top six potential forward who can score.

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05-09-2012, 01:23 AM
  #229
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(groan) With that logic Palmieri has the potential to score 40 goals too, as would just about any top six potential forward who can score.
To get lucky in a Jason Blake-eque type way, perhaps he could, but he's lacks the skill to say he really has that potential. Etem doesn't, not at all. He possesses the talent capable of hitting 40 goals in the NHL, that's what I'm saying.

Oh, and that's been my point from the beginning, don't blame me for your lack of comprehension.

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05-09-2012, 01:29 AM
  #230
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
To get lucky in a Jason Blake-eque type way, perhaps he could, but he's lacks the skill to say he really has that potential. Etem doesn't, not at all. He possesses the talent capable of hitting 40 goals in the NHL, that's what I'm saying.

Oh, and that's been my point from the beginning, don't blame me for your lack of comprehension.
That's ridiculous. If I say I don't think Etem has the talent, what are you going to say to that?

"Yes, he does."

And then what?

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05-09-2012, 01:32 AM
  #231
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Yes, I asked you to list reasons why he couldn't, not why he wouldn't. There's quite a large difference. You listed nothing to say he isn't capable of it, because you probably can't. You just listed off reasons why he probably won't, which has nothing to do with his potential, but rather his expectations, an original point I made that everyone in the thread missed because they were too busy making a big deal over why he won't do it.

You're not irrational, you just don't know what the word potential means.
So you're a sophist? You asked me why anyone wouldn't THINK he had the potential to be a 40 goal scorer. I actually answered your question - the fact that Crosby has only hit 40 once, the number of 40 goal scorers dropping dramatically with the return of clutch and grab hockey, and the fact that wonder boy didn't perform in preseason are excellent reasons to THINK he will never reach 40. And if you don't THINK he will ever reach 40, then you don't think he has 40 goal POTENTIAL. You're so busy trying to obfuscate your point you don't realize the discussion you're actually putting forth. Show me on the Wild Wing doll where I SAID he didn't have 40 goal "potential"?

A player's "potential" is 100% based on "expectations", what a ridiculous argument. Your statement of his 40 goal potential is based on your personal opinions on how his skills will translate, I can just as easily make the argument that you can't make an argument that his potential WILL translate to a 40 goal potential, because you also can't make that argument. You look at how he plays against boys, you not only ignore but actually dismiss his performance against NHL players, make no assessment of how CHL numbers typically fall when a player enters the NHL (Snark, hard numbers please), don't make comparisons of how players who play his STYLE translate to the NHL, ignore how the NHL is allowing interference to slow down and neuter the play of fast players with uncalled interference and the effect that will have on a player whose game is based on speed, etc etc etc.. I'm not even mad, it's just funny you think your argument isn't subject to the same rules you apply to everyone else's.

EDIT - With the direction the league has been headed, your argument boils down to Etem has the skills to be a top 5-7 goal scoring forward in the NHL. Meaning a top 2-3 wing. The burden of proof is on you to explain why you think he has that potential, because that's a REALLY strong statement about a guy everyone who rates players for a living projects as a top 6 player.


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05-09-2012, 01:33 AM
  #232
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
You haven't been looking all that hard, then, many are raving about Etem, and on the prospect board a few non-Duck fans predicted he'd hit 40, which also is completely different from rating his potential.
What the hell is that supposed to mean? My point was that no one that actually has scouting experience has said that about Etem, just a handful of homers that think he walks on water. Who cares if JoJoTheHockeyFan420 confirmed what you wanted to hear in the prospect forum?

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05-09-2012, 01:35 AM
  #233
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
That's ridiculous. If I say I don't think Etem has the talent, what are you going to say to that?

"Yes, he does."

And then what?
Well then you'd just look silly.

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05-09-2012, 01:42 AM
  #234
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Well then you'd just look silly.
For what. For disagreeing with your own very subjective analysis of his talent level? That's basically what this comes down to. You're arguing Etem's potential based on your opinion of his talent, but not allowing for a difference of opinion on his talent. That's all it takes for someone to look at Etem and say "I don't think he has that potential, realistically."

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05-09-2012, 01:44 AM
  #235
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Well then you'd just look silly.
I don't think anyone would look silly by saying Etem does not have the talents to score 40 goals in the NHL. Because that's something only very few players achieve, as has been explained. There have been many great scorers in their senior seasons in junior hockey to not come close to thirty goals, so I really don't understand the point why we would feel the need to proclaim that having the potential to score 30 goals in the NHL - which not that many players get to do each year these days, either - does not do him justice. Unless you are a top-3-ish prospect in your draft, you don't generally don't prove 40-goal NHL potential by scoring in juniors.

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05-09-2012, 01:47 AM
  #236
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Originally Posted by Andrew Knoll View Post
If Etem turns into a second-liner he will have fulfilled his potential, both in terms of being drafted and current projections.

Probably the highest praise comparison I've heard is Marian Gaborik lite, which basically means a second-line with respectable numbers.
Let me point to this again.

The -highest- praise comparison he's heard is Gaborik-lite. That's a "lite" version of the Gaborik who scores 40 goals, mind you. A lesser version of a 40 goal scorer.

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05-09-2012, 01:48 AM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
So you're a sophist? You asked me why anyone wouldn't THINK he had the potential to be a 40 goal scorer. I actually answered your question - the fact that Crosby has only hit 40 once, the number of 40 goal scorers dropping dramatically with the return of clutch and grab hockey, and the fact that wonder boy didn't perform in preseason are excellent reasons to THINK he will never reach 40. And if you don't THINK he will ever reach 40, then you don't think he has 40 goal POTENTIAL. You're so busy trying to obfuscate your point you don't realize the discussion you're actually putting forth. Show me on the Wild Wing doll where I SAID he didn't have 40 goal "potential"?

A player's "potential" is 100% based on "expectations", what a ridiculous argument. Your statement of his 40 goal potential is based on your personal opinions on how his skills will translate, I can just as easily make the argument that you can't make an argument that his potential WILL translate to a 40 goal potential, because you also can't make that argument. You look at how he plays against boys, you not only ignore but actually dismiss his performance against NHL players, make no assessment of how CHL numbers typically fall when a player enters the NHL (Snark, hard numbers please), don't make comparisons of how players who play his STYLE translate to the NHL, ignore how the NHL is allowing interference to slow down and neuter the play of fast players with uncalled interference and the effect that will have on a player whose game is based on speed, etc etc etc.. I'm not even mad, it's just funny you think your argument isn't subject to the same rules you apply to everyone else's.
Well if you didn't say or mean that, then I don't know what we're arguing about. I've simply said he has the capability of scoring 40 in this league. I have no idea if Etem will hit 40, but he certainly can.

And that's not my assessment at all, where you pulled that from is beyond me. I've said nothing about how he'll translate, I have no idea, but in terms of his talents, as in things that can't be refuted, he definitely has that potential. Whether he fulfills it or not is the question.

And of course I dismiss his preseason. It'd be ridiculous to base an opinion of a 19-year old prospect on a couple games.

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What the hell is that supposed to mean? My point was that no one that actually has scouting experience has said that about Etem, just a handful of homers that think he walks on water. Who cares if JoJoTheHockeyFan420 confirmed what you wanted to hear in the prospect forum?
I've never seen a scouting report that doubted his skill at all, or said he didn't have great offensive potential. And let's face it, it's not like either of us have read all the teams' scouting reports on him.

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05-09-2012, 01:48 AM
  #238
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
To get lucky in a Jason Blake-eque type way, perhaps he could, but he's lacks the skill to say he really has that potential. Etem doesn't, not at all. He possesses the talent capable of hitting 40 goals in the NHL, that's what I'm saying.

Oh, and that's been my point from the beginning, don't blame me for your lack of comprehension.


Have you noticed that the definitions you're using are apparently shared by no one else?

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05-09-2012, 01:52 AM
  #239
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I've never seen a scouting report that doubted his skill at all, or said he didn't have great offensive potential. And let's face it, it's not like either of us have read all the teams' scouting reports on him.
That is a massive shifting of the goal posts, there. Not labeling a player as a potential 40 goal scorer is not synonymous with doubting his skill.

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05-09-2012, 01:56 AM
  #240
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Never seen a prospect bring out so much homerism before........

I didn't realise people weren't allowed to doubt a prospects potential around these parts anymore without being called an idiot, stupid etc.

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05-09-2012, 01:57 AM
  #241
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I don't think anyone would look silly by saying Etem does not have the talents to score 40 goals in the NHL. Because that's something only very few players achieve, as has been explained. There have been many great scorers in their senior seasons in junior hockey to not come close to thirty goals, so I really don't understand the point why we would feel the need to proclaim that having the potential to score 30 goals in the NHL - which not that many players get to do each year these days, either - does not do him justice. Unless you are a top-3-ish prospect in your draft, you don't generally don't prove 40-goal NHL potential by scoring in juniors.
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For what. For disagreeing with your own very subjective analysis of his talent level? That's basically what this comes down to. You're arguing Etem's potential based on your opinion of his talent, but not allowing for a difference of opinion on his talent. That's all it takes for someone to look at Etem and say "I don't think he has that potential, realistically."
Yes, and for the most part, the lack of success with those guys had nothing to do with talent. When one says talent, they talk about his speed, his shot, how he handles the puck, strength, etc. It isn't even subjective analysis, it's very objective, all those are traits that can't be denied. Doing so would be you arguing for the sake or arguing.

And again, I don't think people understand how good of a junior scorer Etem was. This isn't like Jeremy Williams or Colton Yellow Horn where he has a decent year or two, his career GPG was at an insane level. I found a third player with a better one, Jamie Benn, who didn't play in the Dub pre-draft like Etem did(and in comparing just their 18 and 19 year old years, Etem's GPG is better). I know almost everyone on here has spent way too much time trying to say how it means nothing, it's pretty significant. When only John Tavares and Steven Stamkos score at a higher rate than you, that's pretty elite company.

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05-09-2012, 01:59 AM
  #242
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post

I've never seen a scouting report that doubted his skill at all, or said he didn't have great offensive potential. And let's face it, it's not like either of us have read all the teams' scouting reports on him.
Pretty much any forward with top six potential has great offensive potential. Any prospect with a realistic hope of being a top six talent needs to be a complete stud.

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05-09-2012, 02:00 AM
  #243
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Well if you didn't say or mean that, then I don't know what we're arguing about. I've simply said he has the capability of scoring 40 in this league. I have no idea if Etem will hit 40, but he certainly can.

And that's not my assessment at all, where you pulled that from is beyond me. I've said nothing about how he'll translate, I have no idea, but in terms of his talents, as in things that can't be refuted, he definitely has that potential. Whether he fulfills it or not is the question.

And of course I dismiss his preseason. It'd be ridiculous to base an opinion of a 19-year old prospect on a couple games.



I've never seen a scouting report that doubted his skill at all, or said he didn't have great offensive potential. And let's face it, it's not like either of us have read all the teams' scouting reports on him.
I honestly have no idea what you're even talking about any more. Not being an ass, I just don't know what you mean by that's not your assessment of him.

What irrefutable talents are you talking about? His ability to streak past teenagers? His ability to put a shot past a teenage goaltender? His speed that will be hampered by being interfered with? His game is at least partially predicated on his speed, which wasn't enough in preseason - he was trying things he got away with in juniors and failing. I personally feel he has to show he's a player with enough smarts to modify his game before calling his talents irrefutable, and that won't happen until he's playing NHL players, not children. You're free to have your opinion but I don't see how you can call mine incorrect either.

It's true, neither of us have seen the team scouting reports on him. But 40 goal potential is currently top 2-3 wing territory. It's certain that nobody thought that about him last year, because no team would let that player drop to the bottom of the 1st round, unless he had some serious red flags, which doesn't appear to be the case.

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05-09-2012, 02:01 AM
  #244
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Never seen a prospect bring out so much homerism before........

I didn't realise people weren't allowed to doubt a prospects potential around these parts anymore without being called an idiot, stupid etc.
That's because you're an idiot!


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05-09-2012, 02:03 AM
  #245
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Have you noticed that the definitions you're using are apparently shared by no one else?
For one, not my fault, as they're the proper definitions. Also, that tends to happen when people see "40 goals" and miss the part where I'm talking solely about his potential, not his expectations.

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That is a massive shifting of the goal posts, there. Not labeling a player as a potential 40 goal scorer is not synonymous with doubting his skill.
In a way, it is. No one questions his tools, just his toolbox. His toolbox has nothing to do with his potential, but rather his ability to fulfill it.

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Never seen a prospect bring out so much homerism before........

I didn't realise people weren't allowed to doubt a prospects potential around these parts anymore without being called an idiot, stupid etc.
I've never seen a great prospect bring out so much conservatism before. Etem's a fantastic prospect, enjoy it, don't get your panties in a bunch because someone makes a semi-optimistic statement about him.

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05-09-2012, 02:10 AM
  #246
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Yes, and for the most part, the lack of success with those guys had nothing to do with talent. When one says talent, they talk about his speed, his shot, how he handles the puck, strength, etc. It isn't even subjective analysis, it's very objective, all those are traits that can't be denied. Doing so would be you arguing for the sake or arguing.
I have not seen speed, strength and shot being denied by anyone. His pure puck skills, for example, I actually would deny, at least when it comes to the degree of proclaiming elite skills. I haven't see anything from him that would suggest elite level puck skills. And remember that all I'm saying is that he doesn't appear to have those as of now. I'm not sure Perry had them when he played in juniors (I actually don't know, as I haven't been following prospects closely back those days), so it's not like he's a finished product. But it's up to him to show signs of that at the pro level, before raising expectations to an absolute elite level.

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I know almost everyone on here has spent way too much time trying to say how it means nothing, it's pretty significant. When only John Tavares and Steven Stamkos score at a higher rate than you, that's pretty elite company.
I don't think anybody ever said it means nothing. It's why there's a reason for us to be as excited over a orospect we drafted 29th as we are. And while elite company for junior scoring is a great achievement that nobdy takes (or would want to take) away from him, it's not necessarily a safe projector for elite company in professional hockey. Let's leave a bit more of showing that up to him.

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Etem's a fantastic prospect, enjoy it, don't get your panties in a bunch because someone makes a semi-optimistic statement about him.
If 40-goal potential is "semi-optimistic", I don't think I'd want to know what the "optimistic", "highly optimistic" and "ecstatic" statements about him are going to be.


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05-09-2012, 02:10 AM
  #247
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I honestly have no idea what you're even talking about any more. Not being an ass, I just don't know what you mean by that's not your assessment of him.

What irrefutable talents are you talking about? His ability to streak past teenagers? His ability to put a shot past a teenage goaltender? His speed that will be hampered by being interfered with? His game is at least partially predicated on his speed, which wasn't enough in preseason - he was trying things he got away with in juniors and failing. I personally feel he has to show he's a player with enough smarts to modify his game before calling his talents irrefutable, and that won't happen until he's playing NHL players, not children. You're free to have your opinion but I don't see how you can call mine incorrect either.

It's true, neither of us have seen the team scouting reports on him. But 40 goal potential is currently top 2-3 wing territory. It's certain that nobody thought that about him last year, because no team would let that player drop to the bottom of the 1st round, unless he had some serious red flags, which doesn't appear to be the case.
Except smarts and talents aren't the same thing. Etem's talents, such as his speed, shot, etc. aren't refutable. His smarts are a question mark, absolutely, but they don't take away from his talent. His talent says he can score 40, his smarts could say otherwise, we'll see. That's what I've said from the beginning.

And not only does draft position mean nothing, but Etem did have a couple flags. One was thought to be a lack of offensive creativity, that all he did was skate fast and shoot. I thought he did quite a good job of shutting that one down the last couple seasons. The other? His skating stride.

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05-09-2012, 02:15 AM
  #248
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I have not seen speed, strength and shot being denied by anyone. His pure puck skills, for example, I actually would deny, at least when it comes to the degree of proclaiming elite skills. I haven't see anything from him that would suggest elite level puck skills. And remember that all I'm saying is that he doesn't appear to have those as of now. I'm not sure Perry had them when he played in juniors (I actually don't know, as I haven't been following prospects closely back those days), so it's not like he's a finished product. But it's up to him to show signs of that at the pro level, before raising expectations to an absolute elite level.


I don't think anybody ever said it means nothing. It's why there's a reason for us to be as excited over a orospect we drafted 29th as we are. And while elite company for junior scoring is a great achievement that nobdy takes (or would want to take) away from him, it's not necessarily the best projector for elite company in professional hockey. Let's leave a bit more of showing that up to him.
I can see your point about puck skills, but he does handle it great at full speed, and if he was a magician with it, then let's face it, we'd wouldn't be having any discussions other than the hype train for him, he has to be only good in some area. And, his skills with the puck, along with his elite everything else, are enough to maintain a 40 goal capability. Again, I'm not expecting this out of him, I'm just saying he can do it if he puts it together.

And I'm not basing much off of it, but some are very quick to write it off. I'm just showing why it's actually worth noting and not comparable to guys like Williams and Yellow Horn.

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05-09-2012, 02:16 AM
  #249
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Honestly, this feels like you're speaking for the scouts now. Where is this irrefutable evidence that he the talent you speak of? I've seen him plenty, but I do not see a player who can claim a top 5 NHL shot, or a top 5 skater. I don't see a set of tools that puts him into the category of an Kovalchuk or a Gaborik. Because that would be what I'd expect to see out of the prospect you're describing. Not great offensive potential, but elite offensive potential. World class ability. A lot of player's came into the NHL with great offensive potential. Most of them don't end up scoring 40 goals.

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05-09-2012, 02:22 AM
  #250
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
For one, not my fault, as they're the proper definitions. Also, that tends to happen when people see "40 goals" and miss the part where I'm talking solely about his potential, not his expectations.
The first rule of argument is to find a common statement of definitions. The fact is that you seem more than happy to tell us how wrong our definitions are, but you haven't actually taken any steps to explain what the correct definitions are.

Quote:
In a way, it is. No one questions his tools, just his toolbox. His toolbox has nothing to do with his potential, but rather his ability to fulfill it.
Huh? Etem was pegged as a boom-bust project when he was drafted. His tools were questioned from the outset. There's a reason why he fell to us: risk.

Quote:
I've never seen a great prospect bring out so much conservatism before. Etem's a fantastic prospect, enjoy it, don't get your panties in a bunch because someone makes a semi-optimistic statement about him.
Let me guess, you have a theory about that, but you don't want to risk getting banned.


Last edited by Exit Dose: 05-09-2012 at 02:27 AM. Reason: Grammar.
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