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2011-2012 Anaheim Ducks Prospects Update Part II ‎

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Old
05-09-2012, 02:29 AM
  #251
Ducks DVM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Except smarts and talents aren't the same thing. Etem's talents, such as his speed, shot, etc. aren't refutable. His smarts are a question mark, absolutely, but they don't take away from his talent. His talent says he can score 40, his smarts could say otherwise, we'll see. That's what I've said from the beginning.

And not only does draft position mean nothing, but Etem did have a couple flags. One was thought to be a lack of offensive creativity, that all he did was skate fast and shoot. I thought he did quite a good job of shutting that one down the last couple seasons. The other? His skating stride.
That's your personal opinion, not definitions found in Webster's or the NHL rule book. My personal assessment of NHL "talent" involves how the player meshes their physical skills with their hockey skills with their hockey smarts.

I'm sorry, draft position most assuredly means something when you're throwing around "40 goal potential". That's a ludicrous statement. Those players are in such short supply that they 100% do not make it to the bottom of the first round unless the scouts feel that their physical talents (which I don't understand how you see as irrefutable until they are tested against adults) are so outweighed by the red flags that......... the player does NOT have 40 goal potential. if you're talking about PURELY physical skills, then IMO I want to see those skills against NHL players before calling them as 40 goal potential. I keep saying this and you keep ignoring it but 40 goal scorer means top 5-7 player, top 2-3 wing. You're saying his shot and "talent" is Kovalchuk/Parise/Gaborik/Malkin/Stamkos quality, you realize that, right?

Potential is based off the total package, not just a skill set.

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05-09-2012, 02:31 AM
  #252
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Honestly, this feels like you're speaking for the scouts now. Where is this irrefutable evidence that he the talent you speak of? I've seen him plenty, but I do not see a player who can claim a top 5 NHL shot, or a top 5 skater. I don't see a set of tools that puts him into the category of an Kovalchuk or a Gaborik. Because that would be what I'd expect to see out of the prospect you're describing. Not great offensive potential, but elite offensive potential. World class ability. A lot of player's came into the NHL with great offensive potential. Most of them don't end up scoring 40 goals.
Since when do you need to be Kovalchuk or Gaborik to score 40 in the NHL? I'm sure other players, lesser skilled players, have done it. Etem doesn't have a top 5 shot or skating ability, not now anyway, but you don't need those things to hit 40. Plenty of other guys don't have them and still did it.

But yeah, I was way off base a couple days ago with the whole pessimism/conservatism point on this board. It's super common to see posters grasp at straws and argue semantics to attempt to say why their prospect isn't as good. And spare me any argument about just being realistic or the like, saying Etem's capable of 40 goals isn't ridiculous in the least, but getting your panties in a bunch over that statement is. It's not unrealistic to think he could do it, and saying so is just arguing for the sake of arguing.

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05-09-2012, 02:34 AM
  #253
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Right. We're the ones grasping at straws. Unbelievable. I think DVM is right. The rules only apply to you. No one else can say Etem doesn't have the talent to score 40 because MVPeyton thinks he does.

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05-09-2012, 02:40 AM
  #254
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
That's your personal opinion, not definitions found in Webster's or the NHL rule book. My personal assessment of NHL "talent" involves how the player meshes their physical skills with their hockey skills with their hockey smarts.

I'm sorry, draft position most assuredly means something when you're throwing around "40 goal potential". That's a ludicrous statement. Those players are in such short supply that they 100% do not make it to the bottom of the first round unless the scouts feel that their physical talents (which I don't understand how you see as irrefutable until they are tested against adults) are so outweighed by the red flags that......... the player does NOT have 40 goal potential. if you're talking about PURELY physical skills, then IMO I want to see those skills against NHL players before calling them as 40 goal potential.

Potential is based off the total package, not just a skill set.
Well, actually the very definition of talent doesn't include smarts. It's natural abilities and skills, not the understanding of the game. That may be your personal assessment of talent, but it's wrong. And don't take this as I don't think highly of smarts, I absolutely do, but smarts and talents are two different things.

And no, draft position doesn't factor in. Are you saying that Fowler doesn't have the potential to be an elite d-man because he fell to 12? Of course not. Just because a bunch of GMs messed up doesn't mean he doesn't have great potential. Look at Perry, who people knew had great potential but he had some flags, or Patrick O'Sullivan from the same year(list goes on and on with guys who had great potential and fell in the draft). Draft position is meaningless.

And by it's very definition, potential is his capacity to develop to that point. By arguing with me, you're not saying he likely won't reach that point, you're saying he can't. I'd just love to hear why. Also, I exclude smarts from the equation because there are probably few people who actually know what his hockey IQ is like, so it'd be pointless to debate too much about it, especially when just dealing with his potential.

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05-09-2012, 02:43 AM
  #255
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oh god here we go questioning Etems smarts/intelligence again. it's really old and lazy as hell, he's one of the smartest young men you will ever meet. and yes it can translate to the ice, watch how he plays angles and moves around on the PP. i cannot wait til' he becomes a top 6 forward for us

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05-09-2012, 02:44 AM
  #256
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Right. We're the ones grasping at straws. Unbelievable. I think DVM is right. The rules only apply to you. No one else can say Etem doesn't have the talent to score 40 because MVPeyton thinks he does.
Well yeah, you guys are. All I'm saying, and have ever said, is that he could score 40 one day. It's hilarious that such a statement could set everyone off, especially when it's our own prospect we're talking about.

Also, the rules don't only apply to me, I'm just the only one who follows them. Again, it's not my fault most on here don't know what potential actually means. Really, I guess I was asking for it, though. A guy should know better than to say something optimistic about a prospect on this board.

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05-09-2012, 02:44 AM
  #257
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It just gets better.

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05-09-2012, 02:45 AM
  #258
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Well yeah, you guys are. All I'm saying, and have ever said, is that he could score 40 one day. It's hilarious that such a statement could set everyone off, especially when it's our own prospect we're talking about.

Also, the rules don't only apply to me, I'm just the only one who follows them. Again, it's not my fault most on here don't know what potential actually means. Really, I guess I was asking for it, though. A guy should know better than to say something optimistic about a prospect on this board.
Just... wow.

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05-09-2012, 02:47 AM
  #259
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Originally Posted by OccupySheen View Post
oh god here we go questioning Etems smarts/intelligence again. it's really old and lazy as hell, he's one of the smartest young men you will ever meet. and yes it can translate to the ice, watch how he plays angles and moves around on the PP. i cannot wait til' he becomes a top 6 forward for us
Whoa man, you can't say that. We have no idea if he'll become that and thus can't make any statement of that sort. You also can't talk about his actual play in the dub unless you mention how it was against teenagers. You can only talk absolutely about his play in the preseason.

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05-09-2012, 02:50 AM
  #260
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Just... wow.
Just as I expected, a nothing response because you have nothing to say. Saying he could hit 40 isn't outrageous, you just acted like it was. Again, not my fault.

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05-09-2012, 02:55 AM
  #261
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
I've never seen a great prospect bring out so much conservatism before. Etem's a fantastic prospect, enjoy it, don't get your panties in a bunch because someone makes a semi-optimistic statement about him.
The only one getting his panties in a bunch is yourself because some people don't rate Etem as highly as you do.

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05-09-2012, 02:59 AM
  #262
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Just as I expected, a nothing response because you have nothing to say. Saying he could hit 40 isn't outrageous, you just acted like it was. Again, not my fault.
No, you're right. At least about me having nothing to say now. The arrogance of your response has made it clear that I'd be wasting my time continuing this conversation.

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05-09-2012, 03:02 AM
  #263
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Well, actually the very definition of talent doesn't include smarts. It's natural abilities and skills, not the understanding of the game. That may be your personal assessment of talent, but it's wrong.
Quote:
tal·ent
noun \ˈta-lənt\
1
a : any of several ancient units of weight b : a unit of value equal to the value of a talent of gold or silver
2
archaic : a characteristic feature, aptitude, or disposition of a person or animal
3
: the natural endowments of a person
4
a : a special often athletic, creative, or artistic aptitude b : general intelligence or mental power : ability

5
: a person of talent or a group of persons of talent in a field or activity

Christ.

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05-09-2012, 03:06 AM
  #264
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Originally Posted by OccupySheen View Post
oh god here we go questioning Etems smarts/intelligence again. it's really old and lazy as hell, he's one of the smartest young men you will ever meet. and yes it can translate to the ice, watch how he plays angles and moves around on the PP. i cannot wait til' he becomes a top 6 forward for us
Sigh. No one doubts his intelligence as a person, and you even suggesting that is the most asinine thing that has come up in these discussions to date. Has he scored the way he has because he has elite hockey sense? Scouts have and continue to question that. Nobody doubts that he has talents. It's just not certain that those talents will be enough to make him a scorer as succesful as in juniors. Everybody around here would be excited if he proved he can. All you're trying to do is saying he has proven something that shouldn't be considered a given at this date.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Whoa man, you can't say that. We have no idea if he'll become that and thus can't make any statement of that sort. You also can't talk about his actual play in the dub unless you mention how it was against teenagers. You can only talk absolutely about his play in the preseason.
Don't go to that level. Nobody said he won't be a top-6 forward. There is a world of difference between that and what has been suggested. Preseason has not nearly been as much of a focus (rightfully) as his actual play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Well yeah, you guys are. All I'm saying, and have ever said, is that he could score 40 one day. It's hilarious that such a statement could set everyone off, especially when it's our own prospect we're talking about.
Well, in that sense, every prospect could be a 10.0, since the sky is the limit for everyone, as everyone could put it all together, with the only difference being the likeliness. In many ways, that's paying respect to the realities of the game, it's just not a very rational way of looking at things. It doesn't say much.

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05-09-2012, 03:30 AM
  #265
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Originally Posted by MVPeyton View Post
Well, actually the very definition of talent doesn't include smarts. It's natural abilities and skills, not the understanding of the game. That may be your personal assessment of talent, but it's wrong. And don't take this as I don't think highly of smarts, I absolutely do, but smarts and talents are two different things.

And no, draft position doesn't factor in. Are you saying that Fowler doesn't have the potential to be an elite d-man because he fell to 12? Of course not. Just because a bunch of GMs messed up doesn't mean he doesn't have great potential. Look at Perry, who people knew had great potential but he had some flags, or Patrick O'Sullivan from the same year(list goes on and on with guys who had great potential and fell in the draft). Draft position is meaningless.

And by it's very definition, potential is his capacity to develop to that point. By arguing with me, you're not saying he likely won't reach that point, you're saying he can't. I'd just love to hear why. Also, I exclude smarts from the equation because there are probably few people who actually know what his hockey IQ is like, so it'd be pointless to debate too much about it, especially when just dealing with his potential.

You are not using the word talent correctly. One can define it by only the natural aptitude aspect of "talent", but that doesn't preclude mental abilities from being talents. Poets, painters and singers have talent, so do writers. PLAYING hockey can be a talent, you can break that down into skills which are both physical and mental but having the hockey smarts to find the open spaces like Selanne and Hull is still a talent. Gretzky had a talent for knowing where everyone is on the ice. Some mental aspects of hockey are learned, some players have a natural aptitude and for them they can be considered talents Again, you are substituting your personal definitions for those found in dictionaries. Hockey talent is not just the physical skills you have decided it is. You may feel the word has no connection to mental abilities, but, as you put it, you'd be wrong. Find me a definition in a dictionary that EXCLUSIVELY links "talent" to physical abilities if you can, until then stop making dogmatic statements that are opinion rather than fact.


Yes, draft position DOES matter. Absolutely nobody thought Perry would be a 40-50 goal scorer. The proof is in being willing to trade him AND a first for Comrie after he was drafted. 20-30 goal scorer, you're right. 40 goal scorer? There's absolutely no way he falls to 29. It's a ridiculous argument. There are so few of them around you draft him........unless you don't think the total package is a potential 40 goal scorer.

By arguing with you, I'm pointing out you're providing nothing but pure speculative opinion not backed up by statistical evidence or real tests. I'm not saying that he's incapable of being a potential 40 goal scorer, I'm saying YOU have failed to prove your thesis that he IS a potential 40 goal scorer. There's a significant difference between the two positions. You made the strong statement, the burden of proof is on you to provide a convincing argument as to how his skill set compares favorably to players who ACTUALLY score 40 goals in the modern NHL (Parise, Gaborik, Stamkos, Malkin, Crosby) by solely their own skills. Yes, there are some players below that rank who hit 40 (Kesler, Marleau, Cheechoo), but they do it by playing with Art Ross winners on their line or PP unit, and as you are saying Etem has the "potential" to hit 40 those players are irrelevant to this discussion - being dragged there by a true all-star isn't potential, it's luck.

Your entire argument really comes across as "because I said so", wrapped up in plausible deniability clauses and delivered with arrogant condescension.


Last edited by Ducks DVM: 05-09-2012 at 03:43 AM.
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05-09-2012, 04:01 AM
  #266
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This **** just got real lol.

Doubt Etem scores 40. The odds are against him.

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05-09-2012, 08:02 AM
  #267
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Guarantee he'll hit 50 at least two times in the NHL

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05-09-2012, 08:16 AM
  #268
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Guarantee he'll hit 50 at least two times in the NHL
A lock? I think in last years only Sid, Stamko and Ovi was locks Oh well...

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05-09-2012, 08:47 AM
  #269
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Quick post, don't have time to expand. Will say more later.

I actually agree with MVPeyton that "potential" and "expected" are different. And that potential is always much higher. I actually always thought Perry had 50 goal potential. Ryan too.

Disagree that talent does not include the mental part. Unless you refer only to physical talent. Mental component is extremely important, and I think it counts as a talent. Things like going to the net, being willing to actually shoot. OTH I do not question Etem's hockey sense in regards to goal scoring. I do question his hockey sense in regards to being a complete offensive player. Passing and using his teammates. And being able to be a threat to both pass and shoot (which makes it a little harder to defend). But that affects total points more than goals.

In terms of talent and potential, though, I actually do not think Etem has 40 goal potential. Take this with a big grain of salt because I have had limited viewing and did not even get a chance to see all of his goals (anyone have a link to that video?). His shot is very good but not elite. It seems like his shot is very good when he has possession of the puck, but his shot off of the pass is only good. Near-elite skating, as in near best of age group but not best of NHL type skating. Does not have extreme handles at high speed. Not too much of a dual threat to pass and shoot. Does go to dirty areas and the crease. Has good ability to "be where the puck is" (incidentally this is where Perry excels even though his shot is only good). All in all I would say 30 goal to mid-30 goal potential.

Kessel, for example, is limited by extreme tunnel vision, but he has a better shot, is slightly faster fast, and better handles at high speed.

I think actually that Etem's "likely" upside and his "potential" are actually not as far apart as many 1st round picks. I think his great work ethic will help him achieve most of his potential. I just don't think his talents are quite as good as some here say.

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05-09-2012, 09:24 AM
  #270
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Guarantee he'll hit 50 at least two times in the NHL
Quoted.

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05-09-2012, 12:13 PM
  #271
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I asked Hockey Prospectus's Corey Pronman two questions via Twitter last night. Here are his responses:

Me: How good can Rakell be?
CP: Top Six winger. Crazy puck skills could elevate value.

Me: How about Peter Holland? Top-6 Center?
CP: If his development keeps going well, I could definitely see that.

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05-09-2012, 12:29 PM
  #272
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Not sure if posted but Ducks are 9th in the latest organizational rankings dated 5/9/12.

Florida #1.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl_organisation_rankings/

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05-09-2012, 12:36 PM
  #273
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Toronto still has Keith Aulie in there as their #5 prospect. Fun. No idea why they would get by us, but whatever.

EDIT: And Rundblad in there for the Sens. Do they voluntarily keep those transactions off this?

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05-09-2012, 12:44 PM
  #274
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Not sure if posted but Ducks are 9th in the latest organizational rankings dated 5/9/12.

Florida #1.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl_organisation_rankings/
I find this kind of stuff interesting to read with the season over, but hardly put any meaning into it.

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05-09-2012, 12:54 PM
  #275
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I find this kind of stuff interesting to read with the season over, but hardly put any meaning into it.
Oh I agree. Especially looking at the over rating of the Toronto prospect pool. Fun to read though.

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