He was a sure #2 pick when Oilers had that pick. But I'm still quite convinced CBJ will pick him at second as well.
It makes a bit of sense, but I'm not convinced. They have JJ, Wiz and Tyutin, as well as John Moore in the system. A d-man would probably be coming back in any deal for Nash as well, so I have a feeling they go forward. Although, I can't see it being Grigs, probably Galchenyuk, or maybe they do go the Murray route if they're not sold on him.
Although, I don't believe Yakupov at #1 is the sure thing everyone else seems to think it is.
I think there has been too much of an emphasis on guys going straight to the NHL after being drafted. Very few seem to light the league on fire and I'm not so sure it helps these kids as much as more lower level seasoning might. And I think that is especially true of defensemen. I would not try and move up for him.
Only thing I'm afraid of with the #6 pick is the options. I know there are some great players, and I may come off as very pessimistic, but what if Dumba turns into Phaneuf due to his size, and Trouba spurns us like Schultz ultimately will? Murray seems like the safest bet.
Not sure where he'll go, but Montreal has so many D products, and New York has picked forwards within the top-five the past two drafts. I think moving up two spots would help greatly moving into the future (all depending on what the Ducks would have to give up of course).
It makes a bit of sense, but I'm not convinced. They have JJ, Wiz and Tyutin, as well as John Moore in the system. A d-man would probably be coming back in any deal for Nash as well, so I have a feeling they go forward. Although, I can't see it being Grigs, probably Galchenyuk, or maybe they do go the Murray route if they're not sold on him.
Although, I don't believe Yakupov at #1 is the sure thing everyone else seems to think it is.
Well you are basing alot of this off of need. At the number 2 pick you don't draft for need. The mystery, which no one here can know, is who they have as their number 2 overall prospect in this draft. Whomever that is, defenseman or forward, they will take at that pick.
All the other stuff is generally irrelevant. Although I will say that the Nash return(young players or picks?) might dictate what they do.
Only thing I'm afraid of with the #6 pick is the options. I know there are some great players, and I may come off as very pessimistic, but what if Dumba turns into Phaneuf due to his size, and Trouba spurns us like Schultz ultimately will? Murray seems like the safest bet.
Not sure where he'll go, but Montreal has so many D products, and New York has picked forwards within the top-five the past two drafts. I think moving up two spots would help greatly moving into the future (all depending on what the Ducks would have to give up of course).
Only way a deal makes sense is if anaheim brass thinks Murray or one of the other prospects is a much much better prospect than a guy like Dumba. But then as you said? What do you have to give up to move up a few spots. IMO is isn't worth it.
New rankings are coming soon, the panel has concluded their discussion, now open to the entire staff. Later this month, guys. I suspect it will be worth a little wait.
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Danny Duberstein is good at two things ...
New rankings are coming soon, the panel has concluded their discussion, now open to the entire staff. Later this month, guys. I suspect it will be worth a little wait.
Nice. Thanks for the 411. I'm looking forward to it.
Well you are basing alot of this off of need. At the number 2 pick you don't draft for need. The mystery, which no one here can know, is who they have as their number 2 overall prospect in this draft. Whomever that is, defenseman or forward, they will take at that pick.
All the other stuff is generally irrelevant. Although I will say that the Nash return(young players or picks?) might dictate what they do.
Well actually some teams most certainly do draft for need, even that high up. If there's a clear cut #2, then no, but in this draft, there really isn't, and when two, three or even four players are virtually even in BPA sense, team need becomes the tie-breaker(if it doesn't have priority already). Columbus has proven to go somewhat off the board in favor of need(trading down for Moore, Johansen at 4) as well.
And when you've had major issues with two high-profile Russian prospects, you do tend to re-think the matter, that's pretty key. Even forgetting that, Columbus can't risk this high of a pick on a guy who'll potentially bolt if he doesn't get his way(a lot of teams can't, which IMO is why Grigs could fall to us and maybe beyond), not to mention the other things going against him. On the other hand with Murray, even ignoring a lack of positional need for a defenseman, he's an odd case altogether. On one hand, he's probably far and away the safest pick in the draft, especially at that point. On the other, he likely won't develop into the superstar a lot of these other guys could. A team like Columbus could go either way. You're basically getting Glen Wesley for 7+ years, and Columbus, with the organization in the state it's in, can't afford to blow this pick, so it'd make sense to play it safe. Of course, their organization's in tough enough spot that they really need a potential superstar rather than Glen Wesley. Tough spot to be in.
Well actually some teams most certainly do draft for need, even that high up. If there's a clear cut #2, then no, but in this draft, there really isn't, and when two, three or even four players are virtually even in BPA sense, team need becomes the tie-breaker(if it doesn't have priority already). Columbus has proven to go somewhat off the board in favor of need(trading down for Moore, Johansen at 4) as well.
And when you've had major issues with two high-profile Russian prospects, you do tend to re-think the matter, that's pretty key. Even forgetting that, Columbus can't risk this high of a pick on a guy who'll potentially bolt if he doesn't get his way(a lot of teams can't, which IMO is why Grigs could fall to us and maybe beyond), not to mention the other things going against him. On the other hand with Murray, even ignoring a lack of positional need for a defenseman, he's an odd case altogether. On one hand, he's probably far and away the safest pick in the draft, especially at that point. On the other, he likely won't develop into the superstar a lot of these other guys could. A team like Columbus could go either way. You're basically getting Glen Wesley for 7+ years, and Columbus, with the organization in the state it's in, can't afford to blow this pick, so it'd make sense to play it safe. Of course, their organization's in tough enough spot that they really need a potential superstar rather than Glen Wesley. Tough spot to be in.
I won't argue the drafting based on need, its subjective IMO. Johansen and Moore weren't considered "off the board" at all when drafted. Drafting someone a spot or two ahead of where they are ranked isn't off the board. Drafting a guy like Hickey at 4 when he is ranked around 20th is "off the board".
That being said, I don't disagree with your second paragraph. And a lot of what you said in that paragraph is exactly the reason why I hope the Ducks try and trade the 6th overall pick either for a center or trade down.
Do you have any more info on Perlini? Seemed to have a solid end to his college career. Was hoping the Ducks would sign him but nothing has been done there. Do you think he has any chance to be signed?
I won't argue the drafting based on need, its subjective IMO. Johansen and Moore weren't considered "off the board" at all when drafted. Drafting someone a spot or two ahead of where they are ranked isn't off the board. Drafting a guy like Hickey at 4 when he is ranked around 20th is "off the board".
That being said, I don't disagree with your second paragraph. And a lot of what you said in that paragraph is exactly the reason why I hope the Ducks try and trade the 6th overall pick either for a center or trade down.
Didn't mean off the board in the Hickey sense, meant a tad off the board, or basically a tad surprising, which IMO Johansen was. Also, I too hope they trade it for a center, way too many question marks in even the top 10 this year.
always liked Andy Welinski great shot mobile D-man could maybe be 4th d man for us down the road or good bottom pairing guy if we get Dumba or Trouba with this draft as well and Schultz stay we might just the best prospect D group in the league
I second this. I was hoping we would hear from schultz much earlier than this. Wasnt he going to make some sort of decision at the end of the month?
The fact that we're not hearing anything is a very good sign, because he's contemplating staying in school and negotiating solely with us. He could easily declare he's leaving now and it would make no difference, so if his mind was made up, he probably would've done it. Or it's May Long weekend, the semesters over, and that'll get handled tomorrow or the next day. Hopefully not, but the longer we hear nothing the better IMO, and if June 1 goes by and still nothing, that's a very, very good sign.
The fact that we're not hearing anything is a very good sign, because he's contemplating staying in school and negotiating solely with us. He could easily declare he's leaving now and it would make no difference, so if his mind was made up, he probably would've done it. Or it's May Long weekend, the semesters over, and that'll get handled tomorrow or the next day. Hopefully not, but the longer we hear nothing the better IMO, and if June 1 goes by and still nothing, that's a very, very good sign.
He may just not want to deal with the media. He's a kid, and if he declares anything right now he's going to have to answer a lot of questions.
According to the OC Register, the Ducks have been in contact with Schultz and his agent. GM Bob Murray is hoping for a decision in the upcoming week. Murray had this to say:
“Last week, I*had a good chat with him. I think Justin has got his exams and he’ll figure out what he wants to do after he gets his schoolwork done. He wanted to concentrate on school and I think he gets done for the year sometime next week. We expect to know something on that in the next little while.”
Ignoring any clues given out by the respective parties, I'm actually reading it the exact opposite. I think June 1st is the first day he can declare he wants to be a UFA without having to go back into the draft.
If this were true (and it's not really clear in the CBA), then if he had already decided to be UFA this would be when he would do it.
edit: Oh and I don't see how his rights would be retained until August 15 of next year even if he returned to college. I think as soon as he leaves college he will be UFA, even if it were in the middle of the year.
Last edited by snarktacular: 05-21-2012 at 08:47 PM.
Ignoring any clues given out by the respective parties, I'm actually reading it the exact opposite. I think June 1st is the first day he can declare he wants to be a UFA without having to go back into the draft.
If this were true (and it's not really clear in the CBA), then if he had already decided to be UFA this would be when he would do it.
edit: Oh and I don't see how his rights would be retained until August 15 of next year even if he returned to college. I think as soon as he leaves college he will be UFA, even if it were in the middle of the year.
I know there is talk in another thread debating more of the fine print in the CBA. But the original presumption of the CBA required him to give notice of leaving school by June 1. If he did not give notice of leaving school by then, then his rights automatically extended to Aug 15 of 2013. He could quit school any time, but if notice was not given before June 1 then his rights would automatically be extended...according to previous interpretations of the CBA.
I read the other thread and agree there is all kinds of new and different interpretations including the possibility of going back in the draft. The only thing I would say to that is I can't see any scenario where getting drafted again would be his desire. Whatever he does now, I have to believe it involves how to go UFA.
