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Old
03-30-2012, 06:42 PM
  #151
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You really think getting shot in the parking lot of Home Depot is going to become common place? I don't know, I just don't see it like that. There are over 300 million people in the US and only a small, tiny, almost infinitesimal amount of those people are victims of random violence. I do think people should be aware of their surroundings but in general I just don't understand making a point to protect yourself against something that is so unlikely to occur.
I really do. Been to the gas pumps lately? It's only going to get worse. Better to be safe than sorry. If something happened to my family and I was unarmed and useless, I could never forgive myself.

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03-30-2012, 08:32 PM
  #152
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Why does it bother you? or rather, why does it matter? Most of the time you won't even know if the friendly father of three next to you is CCing. If they are the type of person who's dedicated enough to carry constantly, attend training and all that, they are a public asset rather than a liability. Both times that it's saved me, the mere presence of a way to defend myself took me out of the victim category and into the "He's too much trouble" one. The use of deadly force is the absolute last option in the playbook.

I also deep carried a knife (mostly for utility), with the clip visibly showing. If you were joe public you probably wouldn't recognize it on my pocket or you'd think it was a pen. The less wholesome types knew exactly what that clip was and hopefully moved along.
Bother me? Oh I really don't care all that much, I was just curious about the psychology behind it. While I don't find it necessary, if it helps you to feel safer I guess there is nothing wrong with that.

I can say if I was a criminal I honestly wouldn't care about your knife or your gun, I'd just jack you from behind and be done with it.

That's because like a lot of beginning students (2:14 mark of video), I will attack you wrong. lol



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Originally Posted by doaner View Post
I really do. Been to the gas pumps lately? It's only going to get worse. Better to be safe than sorry. If something happened to my family and I was unarmed and useless, I could never forgive myself.
lol...I drive a 3/4 ton pickup if that answers your question! Anyway, I fail to see how higher gas prices are going to cause random murder to become common place. You say get worse like things are so horrible now, apparently I'm in some sort of denial because I don't think things are all that bad.


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Old
03-30-2012, 08:40 PM
  #153
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Bother me? Oh I really don't care all that much, I was just curious about the psychology behind it. While I don't find it necessary, if it helps you to feel safer I guess there is nothing wrong with that.

I can say if I was a criminal I honestly wouldn't care about your knife or your gun, I'd just jack you from behind and be done with it.


lol...I drive a 3/4 ton pickup if that answers your question! Anyway, I fail to see how higher gas prices are going to cause random murder to become common place. You say get worse like things are so horrible now, apparently I'm in some sort of denial because I don't think things are all that bad.
Lol. I had an f350. I needed to pull a gas station behind my truck.

Just look around. Idk if it's my job or what that makes me analyze everything. I read somewhere where gas is expected to reach 10 dollars and our pres and his top guy in the field wants it to hit there like it is in the UK so people stop using gas. I can see ppl stealing gas and things like that to occur easily if it hits that high.

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Old
03-30-2012, 09:02 PM
  #154
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Lol. I had an f350. I needed to pull a gas station behind my truck.

Just look around. Idk if it's my job or what that makes me analyze everything. I read somewhere where gas is expected to reach 10 dollars and our pres and his top guy in the field wants it to hit there like it is in the UK so people stop using gas. I can see ppl stealing gas and things like that to occur easily if it hits that high.
You know my pain then, those trucks are ridiculous! Mine is the F250 with the V10 so it's extra thirsty. Granted I knew what I was getting into when I bought it and only did so because I don't have to drive that often. I really just wanted a truck for camping/utility, I plan to keep the thing for the next 20 years. Once it's paid off I'll be heading straight back to my true love, sports cars!!!!!

I think you might be letting yourself get a little paranoid man. I have no doubt you read that somewhere but the real question is where? I'd be very surprised if that didn't come from an extremely biased and/or tinfoil like source.

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03-30-2012, 09:28 PM
  #155
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You know my pain then, those trucks are ridiculous! Mine is the F250 with the V10 so it's extra thirsty. Granted I knew what I was getting into when I bought it and only did so because I don't have to drive that often. I really just wanted a truck for camping/utility, I plan to keep the thing for the next 20 years. Once it's paid off I'll be heading straight back to my true love, sports cars!!!!!

I think you might be letting yourself get a little paranoid man. I have no doubt you read that somewhere but the real question is where? I'd be very surprised if that didn't come from an extremely biased and/or tinfoil like source.
I rolled my f150 w camper s of payson and wanted a tank after that. I had used it for camping and went to the Tetons park in Wyoming. Stopped in each town. Mine was also the v10 gas. Yikes.

It actually came from the horses mouth. I'll find it and PM you if you care.

Bottom line is like anything else. Always better to be prepared. It's like having a spare tire on your car. Do you need it everyday? No. But when something happens, always nice to have it.

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03-30-2012, 09:30 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Sinurgy View Post
I think you might be letting yourself get a little paranoid man. I have no doubt you read that somewhere but the real question is where? I'd be very surprised if that didn't come from an extremely biased and/or tinfoil like source.
It's not rocket science. Oil is a finite resource. There's an every increasing amount of demand for it. All of the geopolitical nonsense boils down to that. China 'growing up' is going to change the world. I was part of a commodity study on nickel, which is a major ingredient in stainless steel. Even if all of the current and future projects (mines) came online at a high yield it would only feed about half of China's future projected demand (not counting the rest of the world) Everyday China adds 38,000 cars. Someone buys a car every 2.3 seconds. China already produces 1.3 million more cars than all of Europe combined.

It's not hard to see where this is leading. Though I do think technology will bail us out of our inability to get off of oil. Alternative energy will simply become more cost effective.

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03-30-2012, 09:59 PM
  #157
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I do think technology will bail us out of our inability to get off of oil. Alternative energy will simply become more cost effective.
We will never run out of oil. Someone will come up with an alternative long before we get to that point. As the price for oil grows, so does the motivation to find a substitute. At $20/barrel there is little incentive. At $200/barrel however...


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03-30-2012, 10:16 PM
  #158
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We will never run out of oil. Someone will come up with an alternative long before we get to that point. As the price for oil grows, so does the motivation to find a substitute. At $20/barrel there is little incentive. At $200/barrel however...

It's stupid to raise prices that high until there is an affordable alternative. Right now there is none.

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03-30-2012, 10:29 PM
  #159
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It's stupid to raise prices that high until there is an affordable alternative. Right now there is none.
I am not sure I understand. I am not suggesting we artificially raise the price. I am saying...

As the demand rises, so will the price. Eventually we will see $200/barrel (or $300 - just a number I picked at random) oil just based on simple economics. When that day comes, and maybe before then, alternatives will come into play. Eventually, oil will no longer be the most inexpensive choice and cease to be used.


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03-30-2012, 11:09 PM
  #160
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I am not sure I understand. I am not suggesting we artificially raise the price. I am saying...

As the demand rises, so will the price. Eventually we will see $200/barrel (or $300 - just a number I picked at random) oil just based on simple economics. When that day comes, and maybe before then, alternatives will come into play. Eventually, oil will no longer be the most inexpensive choice and cease to be used.
Or, as more relevant to the oil situation, as supply decreases.

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03-30-2012, 11:26 PM
  #161
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Or, as more relevant to the oil situation, as supply decreases.
I think the supply of easily accessible oil is the key. David Frum (a nice Canadian boy who wrote for George Bush 2) said it best (7 years ago) :

"In this new era of expensive oil, the process of substitution will accelerate. It may reach too into growing markets such as India and China. As it does, oil in the ground may become less valuable. And we will move closer to the day when M.A. Adelman's ultimate prediction comes true: As consumers substitute other energy sources for oil, oil in the ground will gradually become less valuable and producers will gradually lose interest in searching for more.

The world will never run out of oil. It will just stop using it. When that happens, the world will never know and never care how much oil remains in the Earth."


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03-30-2012, 11:34 PM
  #162
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The world will never run out of oil. It will just stop using it. When that happens, the world will never know and never care how much oil remains in the Earth."[/B]
Pretty much my point. The only question is just where the tipping point is. Everyone can't switch to electric cars tomorrow, and oil products are involved in practically every sector of industry. There will definitely be some pain before we get to alternative energy.

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03-31-2012, 12:16 AM
  #163
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Only problem with the current price per barrel of oil is that it has been artificially inflated due to the relatively new presence of banks and 401k investments in the oil futures markets. Historically, futures have been off-limits to those groups. Futures markets have a direct relationship to the price of gas.

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03-31-2012, 12:21 AM
  #164
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Its been reported that at least 1 winning Mega Millions ticket was sold in Maryland.

The dream is over for now!!

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03-31-2012, 01:16 AM
  #165
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Heard another one is in kansas, having to split that would suck, but the best kind of sucking I am sure

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03-31-2012, 01:24 AM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Mayo Taco Monday View Post
Only problem with the current price per barrel of oil is that it has been artificially inflated due to the relatively new presence of banks and 401k investments in the oil futures markets. Historically, futures have been off-limits to those groups. Futures markets have a direct relationship to the price of gas.
Oil is a hedge. It's not likely to lose it's value overnight and price movement is very easy to forecast based on current trends or news. The immense amount of money those institutions wield makes it even safer. Americans still pay some of the lowest prices in the world so I'm not complaining. The impact a rise in price would have is compounded by the fact that most cities do not have well developed public transit and suffer from urban sprawl. Arizona is the worst in this regard.

In the very near future (10 years) cars will be autonomous, communication technology will improve and most everybody will be driving a hybrid of sorts. Solar, LFTR, Fusion (ITER) etc... will pass oil and coal. The progress at which technology is advancing is mind blowing. It's hard to see because we've got so many great, relatively new technologies that are a part of our lives now. It's exponential and that's something humans do not understand well. I recommend anything by Ray Kurzweil or the movie Transcendent Man (free on netflix) if you are interested in this sort of thing.

Great TEDtalk on energy:


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03-31-2012, 02:22 AM
  #167
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I rolled my f150 w camper s of payson and wanted a tank after that. I had used it for camping and went to the Tetons park in Wyoming. Stopped in each town. Mine was also the v10 gas. Yikes.

It actually came from the horses mouth. I'll find it and PM you if you care.

Bottom line is like anything else. Always better to be prepared. It's like having a spare tire on your car. Do you need it everyday? No. But when something happens, always nice to have it.
You rolled your truck and lived to tell about it, talk about fortunate!

Sure if you have a reliable source that backs up specifically what you said, by all means post it or send it to me, I'd be interested in seeing it.

That's just it, it's not like having a spare tire in your car. Few Americans will go their whole life not needing a spare tire, while almost all will go their whole life without the need for a gun. I think it's just a mental thing, some people just need a gun to feel safe.

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It's not rocket science. Oil is a finite resource. There's an every increasing amount of demand for it. All of the geopolitical nonsense boils down to that. China 'growing up' is going to change the world. I was part of a commodity study on nickel, which is a major ingredient in stainless steel. Even if all of the current and future projects (mines) came online at a high yield it would only feed about half of China's future projected demand (not counting the rest of the world) Everyday China adds 38,000 cars. Someone buys a car every 2.3 seconds. China already produces 1.3 million more cars than all of Europe combined.

It's not hard to see where this is leading. Though I do think technology will bail us out of our inability to get off of oil. Alternative energy will simply become more cost effective.
You replied to me but I don't understand your point. Are you insinuating random violence is about to become common place because of the above reasons? If so, I definitely disagree with you.

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In the very near future (10 years) cars will be autonomous, communication technology will improve and most everybody will be driving a hybrid of sorts. Solar, LFTR, Fusion (ITER) etc... will pass oil and coal. The progress at which technology is advancing is mind blowing. It's hard to see because we've got so many great, relatively new technologies that are a part of our lives now. It's exponential and that's something humans do not understand well. I recommend anything by Ray Kurzweil or the movie Transcendent Man (free on netflix) if you are interested in this sort of thing.

Great TEDtalk on energy:
Kurzweil is awesome but he's a bit of an evangelist. I think his vision is pretty spot on but I don't agree with his timeline (I highly doubt a computer passes the Turing test by 2025). btw...I say skip the movie and instead check out his book The Age of Spiritual Machines. I'd say a lot of that book closely aligns with many of my core expectations of the future (minus the utopia like fluff).

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03-31-2012, 02:31 AM
  #168
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You replied to me but I don't understand your point. Are you insinuating random violence is about to become common place because of the above reasons? If so, I definitely disagree with you.
I'm not. If anything, the new technologies will drop crime by large factors.

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Kurzweil is awesome but he's a bit of an evangelist. I think his vision is pretty spot on but I don't agree with his timeline (I highly doubt a computer passes the Turing test by 2025). btw...I say skip the movie and instead check out his book The Age of Spiritual Machines. I'd say a lot of that book closely aligns with many of my core expectations of the future (minus the utopia like fluff).
He's an evangelist, for sure, but no more so than Bill Gates is for the PC or Jobs was for design. When you've invented as many technologies as he has, you can get away with it. He likes to look on the bright side, which is fine. Nobody is going to want to pursue nanotech if you mention to them how it can be used to create simple viruses that can wipe out humanity. I haven't read Spiritual Machines but I have read the newer one The Singularity is Near. Not a fan? He has a new biomedical one coming out later this year.

I believe his timeline for the Turing test is 2029-30, which is more reasonable. I think it's a bit irrelevant as the scale at which computing is improving has much larger, more profound implications.

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03-31-2012, 02:59 AM
  #169
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I'm not. If anything, the new technologies will drop crime by large factors.



He's an evangelist, for sure, but no more so than Bill Gates is for the PC or Jobs was for design. When you've invented as many technologies as he has, you can get away with it. He likes to look on the bright side, which is fine. Nobody is going to want to pursue nanotech if you mention to them how it can be used to create simple viruses that can wipe out humanity. I haven't read Spiritual Machines but I have read the newer one The Singularity is Near. Not a fan? He has a new biomedical one coming out later this year.

I believe his timeline for the Turing test is 2029-30, which is more reasonable. I think it's a bit irrelevant as the scale at which computing is improving has much larger, more profound implications.
I would agree he's got the track record to back up such grandiose words. I definitely like the guy and as I mentioned before I'm actually very much in agreement with most of his outlook, specifically the man/machine things. It's why I think the Turing test will be a big deal. Granted when you think about it the Turing test is a bit ambiguous, I mean yeah a computer needs to fool a human but to me it's more HOW it fooled the human than it just doing it. If it's a true AI (admittedly even that is hard to define at the moment), humans as we now know them will quickly cease to exist.

We're the opposite, I haven't read the newer one but I have read the old one. I actually own The Singularity is Near but I've just never taken the time to read. At 600 pages I'm worried it's a little verbose, The Age of Spiritual Machines on the other hand was a pretty efficient read.

Speaking of him looking on the bright side, while he does seem to do that, I believe one of the main reason behind the Singularity Institute (or whatever it's called) is to attempt to be proactive in making sure these new technologies don't ultimately lead to our demise. So while he acts all optimistic during the dog and pony shows, he's clearly concerned, as he should be.

btw...this topic reminds me of a funny pic someone made for the open enrollment Stanford Artificial Intelligence class last semester. I think he pretty much nailed what we were all thinking when we signed up. lol

ai_is_math.jpg

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03-31-2012, 04:07 AM
  #170
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03-31-2012, 12:07 PM
  #171
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Ugh... Autonomous cars? Gag me now. If I wanted to be driven, I would take a bus or taxi.

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03-31-2012, 12:15 PM
  #172
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I haven't read Spiritual Machines but I have read the newer one The Singularity is Near. Not a fan? He has a new biomedical one coming out later this year.
I got to quickly meet him in Temp when Singularity Is Near came out. He was doing a keynote in a small tech school. I knew nothing about his work, but to me he came out as a crazy futurist. I've got his book at home but haven't started it yet. I guess I should...

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03-31-2012, 04:06 PM
  #173
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Ugh... Autonomous cars? Gag me now. If I wanted to be driven, I would take a bus or taxi.
That's a pretty ignorant statement.

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03-31-2012, 05:24 PM
  #174
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Ugh... Autonomous cars? Gag me now. If I wanted to be driven, I would take a bus or taxi.
Google and numerous other companies have already logged hundreds of thousands of miles on fully autonomous cars. There will still be a manual option, but I doubt you'd miss all the accidents, road rage, traffic jams and inconvenience. I'm most looking forward to not having to drive on the same road as old people or teenagers. I'm a gearhead and love driving but I can appreciate the benefits. For the boozers out there, you can call for your car to come from wherever it is to drive you home. No more DUI.

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03-31-2012, 08:46 PM
  #175
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That's a pretty ignorant statement.
How is that an ignorant statement? I love driving...

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