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Off day topic- Braun and his impending RFA status

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Old
03-17-2012, 03:09 AM
  #26
OrrNumber4
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Do you watch him play? How do you come to the conclusion he doesn't contribute offensively?

I think what you're trying to say is he hasn't scored many points this year? Which is a terrible way to evaluate the contributions of a defenseman who barely plays on the power play. But if you insist...the Sharks have only scored on 6% of their even strength shots this season when Braun has been on the ice - which is ridiculously, unsustainably low. Even despite that, Braun has recorded more primary assists per 60 minutes than Nicklas Lidstrom, Ryan Suter, Erik Johnson, Brent Seabrook, Cam Fowler, Brian Campbell, Francois Beauchemin, Marc Staal, Niklas Kronwall, Sheldon Souray, John-Michael Liles, Dan Hamhuis, Tomas Kaberle, etc. etc.

Considering the unreliability and inconsistency of the way secondary assists are awarded has been pretty well exposed, that list is a pretty good indication that Braun can contribute offensively, especially when you consider how unlucky the Sharks have been in making their shots when he's on the ice. Or at least that's what I would argue in contract negotiations this summer if I was his agent.
Why do you think he isn't playing on the PP?

I love that statistic that you pick out. If anything, it shows you the stupidity of your methodology. Do you really think Braun is contributing more/better offensively than even half of those guys that you listed?

I watch him and he is playing a very safe, very conservative game. Good shooting, will jump up on the rush but not pinch on a cycle. Not a great passer in the zone. Not a great playmaker. He's shown the ability to be better offensively. If the only way he can play well defensively is if sacrifices offensively, his utility becomes lowered.

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Considering the unreliability and inconsistency of the way secondary assists are awarded has been pretty well exposed,
Right. Because one analyst subjectively doing an analysis for one player on one team during one season = pretty well exposed. Hockey eisegesis!

And, by the way, Karlsson got those secondary assists by virtue of his teammates, you could argue. So corsi QT should be able to show that.

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03-17-2012, 03:18 AM
  #27
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i've been super impressed with his play as of late...he has been one of the first people in on the rush...if not leading the rush, he somehow always is the 3rd guy in...i've been really happy with his play as of late...if he just works on his scoring in the off season he'll be a huge threat...i say sign him up!!!!

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03-17-2012, 03:18 AM
  #28
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I like Braun so much that I plan to get his name on my sweater eventually. He's really coming into his own now. Doesn't matter that he may have been getting sheltered minutes early on and doesn't really matter to me if his production has gone down, he's still a good puckmover. Ian White, for example, never really had good point totals and he's seen as a puckmoving defenseman. As long as Braun keeps getting better at playing defense then he'll help out the offense with his speed and passing eventually.

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03-17-2012, 03:32 AM
  #29
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03-17-2012, 04:55 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by hohosaregood View Post
I like Braun so much that I plan to get his name on my sweater eventually. He's really coming into his own now. Doesn't matter that he may have been getting sheltered minutes early on and doesn't really matter to me if his production has gone down, he's still a good puckmover. Ian White, for example, never really had good point totals and he's seen as a puckmoving defenseman. As long as Braun keeps getting better at playing defense then he'll help out the offense with his speed and passing eventually.
I'd wait for a bit. He or Demers is probably gone at the draft.

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03-17-2012, 11:08 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Eighth Fret View Post
His offensive contributions might not show up on the scoresheet, but I see him playing well in the other team's end. Has a good sense of when to pinch, can open up a shooting lane for himself (his shots almost always go through to the net), and moves well along the blue line to maintain possession and keep pucks from going out.
I agree he does a great job knowing when to pinch, and has great puck moving skills and a decent shot. He also does great jumping up in the play on transitions. At this point I think he is our 4th best D man behind Vlasic, Burns, and Boyle.

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03-17-2012, 11:16 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
I still want to see more from Braun..
This, I still don't think Braun has proven much of anything

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Old
03-17-2012, 11:34 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
Why do you think he isn't playing on the PP?

I love that statistic that you pick out. If anything, it shows you the stupidity of your methodology. Do you really think Braun is contributing more/better offensively than even half of those guys that you listed?

I watch him and he is playing a very safe, very conservative game. Good shooting, will jump up on the rush but not pinch on a cycle. Not a great passer in the zone. Not a great playmaker. He's shown the ability to be better offensively. If the only way he can play well defensively is if sacrifices offensively, his utility becomes lowered.

Right. Because one analyst subjectively doing an analysis for one player on one team during one season = pretty well exposed. Hockey eisegesis!

And, by the way, Karlsson got those secondary assists by virtue of his teammates, you could argue. So corsi QT should be able to show that.
Um, he doesn't play on the power play because the Sharks have Boyle, Pavelski, Burns and Demers.

Of course he isn't close to any of those guys. But your implication seemed to be "moar pointz = moar offense" which is a hilariously simplistic way to judge a defenseman's contribution to offense.

Braun's value offensively is that he moves the puck up the ice as well as any Sharks defenseman not named Boyle. He can already make the breakout passes that most defensemen in the league with his level of experience struggle with. He can also flat out skate the puck up the ice from his own zone to the offensive end when he doesn't have an option on the breakout. He can make split-second decisions against a forecheck that even guys like Burns sometimes **** up.

But, really, the whole separation of defense and offense is a terrible way to look at the game IMO and the sign of someone who just doesn't get it. You're trying to outscore your opponents and the players who contribute to outscoring the most are the valuable ones, regardless of what makeup of offensive and defensive ability goes into that. When Braun is on the ice, the Sharks have offensive-zone possession at a better rate than when any other defenseman except Burns is on the ice. And Burns starts 54% of his shifts already in the offensive zone; Braun starts just 47%. A lot of that is that he plays third-pairing minutes against third and fourth-liners but there was no reasonable expectation of him cracking the top four this season.

That post is just one example but secondary assists, especially for defensemen, are more or less just noise. Single-season point totals overall are complete *********.

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03-17-2012, 12:32 PM
  #34
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A small note on offense for Sharks dmen. White is an offense killer. If a guy is getting his minutes next to White, he should get a partial pass. And, Braun has played a lot of minutes next to White (so has Demers). The second issue for the stats is Braun's qualteam. If he is playing behind the third and fourth lines, it is another partial pass as they are among the least productive in the league. LW can do the lookup if he so desires.

My own two cents. Braun's skating is way out there. Just the type of thing that the Sharks need on their blueline to be competitive with upper echelon teams. Get to the puck before the forecheckers get there and get it out.

FF,
One difference between Braun and Demers on contracts. Braun is older at the time of the second contract; it might provide a bump (~$500k) over the value of Demers' second contract.

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03-17-2012, 12:35 PM
  #35
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You give him what you gave Demers in 2010. He's at the same point in terms of showing potential, game time, and overall usefulness. Demers got his contract after playing 51 games with 21 points and playing 15:26 a night which included a 5 points in 15 games playoff run. Braun is producing less than that but playing more and more effectively overall than Demers was then but to me it's pretty much a wash in terms of assessing contract value.

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Old
03-17-2012, 12:35 PM
  #36
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Braun has averaged 1:19 mins/game PP TOI, 10th on the Sharks (4th for Shark's D). Demers averages 2:02 as an example.

I am liking the kid's game.

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03-17-2012, 12:39 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
A small note on offense for Sharks dmen. White is an offense killer. If a guy is getting his minutes next to White, he should get a partial pass. And, Braun has played a lot of minutes next to White (so has Demers). The second issue for the stats is Braun's qualteam. If he is playing behind the third and fourth lines, it is another partial pass as they are among the least productive in the league. LW can do the lookup if he so desires.

My own two cents. Braun's skating is way out there. Just the type of thing that the Sharks need on their blueline to be competitive with upper echelon teams. Get to the puck before the forecheckers get there and get it out.

FF,
One difference between Braun and Demers on contracts. Braun is older at the time of the second contract; it might provide a bump (~$500k) over the value of Demers' second contract.
True but the flipside is that he's also playing against other teams' third and fourth lines.

Anyway I really think using point totals to evaluate defensemen is really flawed. It's hilarious to me that people think Erik Karlsson should even sniff the Norris this year but I'm sure he'll win it because that's how awards are voted on. It's pathetic.

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03-17-2012, 01:02 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
True but the flipside is that he's also playing against other teams' third and fourth lines.

Anyway I really think using point totals to evaluate defensemen is really flawed. It's hilarious to me that people think Erik Karlsson should even sniff the Norris this year but I'm sure he'll win it because that's how awards are voted on. It's pathetic.
I was comparing Sharks 3rd and 4th to other 3rd's and 4th's in the league. Like I said partial pass because the Sharks are behind the eightball in that regard. If he was playing behind the top guys and showing the same totals, I would be concerned. I agree to an extent that points are not as indicative for dmen although they do tend to segregate puckmovers from non-puckmovers. I am a proponent of a team aiming to get 6 puckmovers if possible, filling the defensive dman roles with guys like Z. Michalek, Seidenberg, Hamhuis, etc. Not guys like Phillips, Regehr, et al.

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03-17-2012, 03:20 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
FF,
One difference between Braun and Demers on contracts. Braun is older at the time of the second contract; it might provide a bump (~$500k) over the value of Demers' second contract.
Shouldn't inflation also be considered. +500K sounds about right to me.

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03-17-2012, 06:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
I was comparing Sharks 3rd and 4th to other 3rd's and 4th's in the league. Like I said partial pass because the Sharks are behind the eightball in that regard. If he was playing behind the top guys and showing the same totals, I would be concerned. I agree to an extent that points are not as indicative for dmen although they do tend to segregate puckmovers from non-puckmovers. I am a proponent of a team aiming to get 6 puckmovers if possible, filling the defensive dman roles with guys like Z. Michalek, Seidenberg, Hamhuis, etc. Not guys like Phillips, Regehr, et al.
Well, if TM is smart and will keep benching White/Vandy (we know he won't), we basically have only one pylon. And if Murray is replaced with Stuart next season... he's not necessarily as mobile but definitely an upgrade. It'll be one hell of a D.

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03-17-2012, 07:04 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Kitten Mittons View Post
Well, if TM is smart and will keep benching White/Vandy (we know he won't), we basically have only one pylon. And if Murray is replaced with Stuart next season... he's not necessarily as mobile but definitely an upgrade. It'll be one hell of a D.
You really don't think Stuart is more mobile then Murray?

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03-17-2012, 07:06 PM
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You really don't think Stuart is more mobile then Murray?
But it's Murray... there are only few players in the galaxy who are as immobile as him...

Where were you when I assumed Heatley was fast when he was getting traded here...

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03-17-2012, 07:15 PM
  #43
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But it's Murray... there are only few players in the galaxy who are as immobile as him...

Where were you when I assumed Heatley was fast when he was getting traded here...
Stuart is a good skater in the NHL. Its not that he is only a little better then Murray.

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03-17-2012, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by WantonAbandon View Post
Stuart is a good skater in the NHL. Its not that he is only a little better then Murray.
Oh that's what you meant. I meant it as he is not as mobile as Burns/Boyle.

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03-18-2012, 12:36 AM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Eighth Fret View Post
His offensive contributions might not show up on the scoresheet, but I see him playing well in the other team's end. Has a good sense of when to pinch, can open up a shooting lane for himself (his shots almost always go through to the net), and moves well along the blue line to maintain possession and keep pucks from going out.

I am glad that people see D-men for more than just being an offensive defenseman. Just because

he does not score all the time does not mean hes good. He makes some of the smartest plays in the

opponents end. I hope to see more of this guy. But on topic I think that he is going to get 2y/2m give

or take a few 100k. I think a 3 or 4 year could be smart because if he breaks out, we could have him

for a while and for cheap!

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03-18-2012, 01:36 AM
  #46
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I think a 3 or 4 year could be smart because if he breaks out, we could have him

for a while and for cheap!
I agree. He seems to be improving at a very rapid rate, and he seems to be getting better almost every game. I think he a long with Burns and Vlasic are going to be the top 3 D-man in a couple of years.

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03-18-2012, 11:58 AM
  #47
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I am glad that people see D-men for more than just being an offensive defenseman. Just because

he does not score all the time does not mean hes good. He makes some of the smartest plays in the

opponents end. I hope to see more of this guy. But on topic I think that he is going to get 2y/2m give

or take a few 100k. I think a 3 or 4 year could be smart because if he breaks out, we could have him

for a while and for cheap!
He should fire his agent if he takes 4 years at less than $3mil. That would be buying UFA years. DW's mode seems to be a short intermediate contract for players of his type. One or two years at less than $2mil. Then, watch out.

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03-18-2012, 12:49 PM
  #48
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My take on Braun is that he is a high quality 5/6 guy who needs to clean up a bit of his game to crack a regular top 4 spot. With that said 1 to 2 years at a one way 1.5 million ceiling sounds good.

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03-18-2012, 06:02 PM
  #49
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Definitely a keeper in our D. Demers, Braun, Vlasic, Burns, Boyle. We need more lefties to round it out a bit.

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03-20-2012, 11:45 AM
  #50
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I have been watching Braun going for 7 years as I am a UMass alum and I have to say this guy just keeps getting better and better every year. I think he already deserves more time than he is getting. I'd have him on the 2nd PP unit over Demers personally. I think Braun has more offensive skill than Demers but he plays a smarter more responsible game leading to the impression that Demers is better offensively. Braun is very quick, has good puck skills and has solid judgement for when to Pinch or carry the puck up the ice.

I'd sign him for 4 years and 5 Million. I think he is going to progess a ton over the next 2 years if we give him 15-18 minutes a game. He has the potential to be one of the better #3 or #4 d-men in the league. I think his numbers offensively could skyrocket too. He has all the tools of being a very effective 2-way d-man.

Demers on the other hand should be traded IMO. I don't see him value rising much higher than it is now. Package him at the draft or during the offseason to get Nash.

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