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NHL has massive home ice advantage

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Old
03-16-2012, 09:56 PM
  #1
frivolousz21
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NHL has massive home ice advantage

http://espn.go.com/nhl/standings/_/s...ercent/group/2


The Blues and the Wings are killing it.

Both are going to win 30 games at home.

The Wings have 8 home games left. No one since the lockout has won more than 32 at home in a season. The wings just have to go 5-3. I can see them even injury plagued winning 33/34 games.

The blues have 5 left at home. I think they will win 3, maybe 4. Probably at least 3 and that would be 32 wins.

anyways, it is amazing the incredible advantage teams have home.

What are the reasons? I guess part of it is mental. But maybe because of travel as well.

Does the home team get more times on the PP?

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03-16-2012, 09:57 PM
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Unlike other sports, there is a real advantage to being at home: last change.

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03-16-2012, 09:59 PM
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Yeah it's getting the matchups. That's why as you pointed out teams with good coaches like Hitch and Babs win at home more than maybe the look of there roster suggests they should.

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03-16-2012, 10:04 PM
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frivolousz21
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It is an NHL gold mine.

Sales reps can quote those stats, but it speaks for it self.

Fans in seats during wins = euphoric chemical reactions.

euphoric chemical reactions == $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


Your favorite team can suck but still do great at home and have great attendance.

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03-16-2012, 10:08 PM
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MasterofGrond
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~56%? I'm not sure I would call that "massive." It's a little above historical norms, but even so is still smaller than the NFL and (especially) NBA. From what I remember, baseball is just short of 55%.

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03-16-2012, 10:13 PM
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frivolousz21
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Originally Posted by MasterofGrond View Post
~56%? I'm not sure I would call that "massive." It's a little above historical norms, but even so is still smaller than the NFL and (especially) NBA. From what I remember, baseball is just short of 55%.

Are you counting OT loses?

because they might be a loss but they are a net positive result. Points are points. Getting a half is better than nothing.

So I think that should be neutral and only wins vs regulation loses should count.

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03-16-2012, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by frivolousz21 View Post
Are you counting OT loses?

because they might be a loss but they are a net positive result. Points are points. Getting a half is better than nothing.

So I think that should be neutral and only wins vs regulation loses should count.
If you want to remove all non-regulation events and then look at it (since regular season OT and shootout success tend to be much more random and less sustainable), I accept that, but the math doesn't really tell us anything if you simply ignore OT losses.

Edit: unless you then compare that percentage with "hockey .500" which is .560 or something, but that's just extra complication.

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03-16-2012, 10:22 PM
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Last change is big. Crowd, and knowing the board helps too.

In other sports the next biggest help is (other then the crowd) weather, but only if it's a southern team playing in an open stadium in the north.

NHL home ice advantage>>>>>>NFL/CFL home advantage>>>>MLB home advantage>>>>NBA home advantage

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03-16-2012, 10:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
NHL home ice advantage>>>>>>NFL/CFL home advantage>>>>MLB home advantage>>>>NBA home advantage
Seriously, look up the stats.

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03-16-2012, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingPantherExtreme View Post
Yeah it's getting the matchups. That's why as you pointed out teams with good coaches like Hitch and Babs win at home more than maybe the look of there roster suggests they should.
Babs didn't do a great job of winning at home last season. It's pretty weird how Detroit went from strong road record/meh home record to great home record/poor road record in a matter of a year with essentially the same roster.

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03-16-2012, 10:48 PM
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SI had a pretty insightful article about this some time ago.

Every sport has a home field advantage, every single one. It has nothing to do with the fans. It has nothing to do with the players feeling more comfortable. It has everything to do with the officiating. Home teams get more calls (or non calls) in their favor than the opponent does.

Officiating gives the home team the advantage.

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03-16-2012, 11:07 PM
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Isn't there also something about the home team's centers getting to put their stick down second for the faceoffs, or something like that?

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03-16-2012, 11:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpringfieldSkins View Post
SI had a pretty insightful article about this some time ago.

Every sport has a home field advantage, every single one. It has nothing to do with the fans. It has nothing to do with the players feeling more comfortable. It has everything to do with the officiating. Home teams get more calls (or non calls) in their favor than the opponent does.

Officiating gives the home team the advantage.
Some team with elite shutdown defenceman and offense base on star powers (like tampa bay in the best) could have a good disavantage on the road I presume also.

Hockey have real subjective advantage for the home team, the bench are no equaly placed, last change, first stick for the faceoff, board bounce, etc...

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03-16-2012, 11:16 PM
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Faceoff advantage (last stick down) and last change are huge.

I'm not sure I buy the notion that officiating favours the home side, but I haven't looked at the numbers. Even then, I don't buy the idea that it's a conscious decisions by the refs.

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03-17-2012, 12:53 AM
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Home ice advantage allows for familiarity with the little details of the rink but more importantly you get the advantage of last change. When teams are at home, it's usually easier for the coaches to get the match ups they want. For some teams, those small things can make a huge impact on their performance. The fans can definitely provide confidence to their home team as well but I think people stress far too much on the crowds and not enough on the obvious on ice advantages that come from being the home team.

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03-17-2012, 12:57 AM
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I strongly believe home field, ice, court advantage is just a myth. In the world series, it's a little different because it means one of the teams has to play to a different set of rules for 4 of the 7 games.

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03-17-2012, 01:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJB Devils23 View Post
I strongly believe home field, ice, court advantage is just a myth. In the world series, it's a little different because it means one of the teams has to play to a different set of rules for 4 of the 7 games.
If it were a myth then you could simply bet the away line at Vegas every single game and become a millionaire in no time.

It might be overblown by a lot of fans, but there is definitely a statistically significant difference.

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03-17-2012, 01:04 AM
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Last change is an enormous advantage.

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03-17-2012, 01:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJB Devils23 View Post
I strongly believe home field, ice, court advantage is just a myth. In the world series, it's a little different because it means one of the teams has to play to a different set of rules for 4 of the 7 games.
Almost all teams have a better home records:
http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm...12012&type=CON

And it is true almost every year.

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03-17-2012, 01:10 AM
  #20
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Last change & faceoff gives hockey a true "home-ice advantage."

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03-17-2012, 01:13 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
Last change is big. Crowd, and knowing the board helps too.

In other sports the next biggest help is (other then the crowd) weather, but only if it's a southern team playing in an open stadium in the north.

NHL home ice advantage>>>>>>NFL/CFL home advantage>>>>MLB home advantage>>>>NBA home advantage
Huh? Are you serious? You don't even have to go through all of the standings, just look at the Lakers record at home vs away.

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03-17-2012, 01:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpringfieldSkins View Post
SI had a pretty insightful article about this some time ago.

Every sport has a home field advantage, every single one. It has nothing to do with the fans. It has nothing to do with the players feeling more comfortable. It has everything to do with the officiating. Home teams get more calls (or non calls) in their favor than the opponent does.

Officiating gives the home team the advantage.
Preposterous.

To suggest that home field has no advantage other than "biased" officiating? Asinine and ludicrous.

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Old
03-17-2012, 01:37 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
last change is big. Crowd, and knowing the board helps too.

In other sports the next biggest help is (other then the crowd) weather, but only if it's a southern team playing in an open stadium in the north.

Nhl home ice advantage>>>>>>nfl/cfl home advantage>>>>mlb home advantage>>>>nba home advantage
nba>>nfl>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>nhl>mlb

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03-17-2012, 01:43 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by EmbraceTheHaiti View Post
I'd bet cheering fans affect the officiating.
Maybe bad matchup would also influence the number of penalty (4 lines traps in the defensive zone againts home team 1)

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03-17-2012, 01:46 AM
  #25
FlashyG
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Stats

#'s are from 2008-2011 but according to these numbers it goes

NBA>NFL>MLB>NHL with basketball having almost twice as big an advantage over all the other sports.

Also interesting to note that apparently teams that play in Florida, more specifically Miami don't get much of advantage in any sport.

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