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ATD 2012 Line-up Assassination Thread

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Old
03-21-2012, 12:23 PM
  #251
jkrx
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
IMO, Delvecchio is a better PKer than Alfredsson or Steen and Datsyuk may be too.

Solid depth PKer, though I don't like Svedberg there.
You may have a point there and it was something I were thinking of doing.

I feel I need to give some defense for my 3rd PK line-up- It's not actually supposed to kill the penalty but to be on ice, when allowed, at the end of penalties. This is when my offense will be deadliest with great transition players like Datyuk and Alex and a strong rusher in Svedberg (whos defense is very underrated in this parts) it will score goals.

I might even put Svedberg with Stevens and have Smith pairing up with McCrimmon.

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03-21-2012, 12:34 PM
  #252
markrander87
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
LES CANADIENS DE MONTR…AL



GM: BenchBrawl
Captain:kelly
Assistant:denneny
Assistant:nighbor

HEAD COACH

Pat Burns


ROSTER

Cy Denneny - Frank Nighbor - Helmut Balderis
Patrik Elias - Adam Oates - Bryan Hextall Sr.
Craig Ramsay - Phil Goyette - Claude Provost
Patrick Marleau - Vincent Lecavalier - Tomas Sandstrom

Harry Howell - Leonard ''Red'' Kelly
Barry Beck - Dan Boyle
Jamie Macoun - Ron Stackhouse

Harry Lumley
Andy Moog

spares: Craig Conroy , Andre Dupont , Jason Spezza



SPECIAL UNITS

PP
Denneny - Oates - Balderis
Boyle - Kelly

Elias/Lecavalier/Marleau - Nighbor - Hextall
Goyette - Beck


PK
Ramsay - Nighbor
Howell - Beck

Goyette - Provost
Kelly - Macoun

OFFENSIVE HERO LINE
Denneny - Oates - Hextall Sr.
Boyle - Kelly
( Nighbor , Balderis )

DEFENSIVE HERO LINE
Ramsay - Nighbor - Provost
Howell - Kelly





Line 1: I like the Denneny – Nighbor duo on your top line, they are pretty average offensively put an obvious plus defensively. I’m a little confused with the Balderis selection. Reading your bio I see he enjoyed to carry the puck a lot. This takes away from Nighbors playmaking, I’m not sure I’d want Balderis to be the primary puck carrier on a ATD 1st line. Will this line be used against other teams 1st or 2nd lines? If so I’d be a little nervous with Balderis who has no known defensive upside and could be prone to turnovers over handling the puck.


Line 2: Again I am a fan of the Oates – Hextall duo, they obviously bring great scoring and playmaking. I’m not sure what Elias role on the line is. As I already stated I believe you drafted Hextall under the impression that he was a physical power forward goal scoring type. I’ve read your bio, and im still not sold on his physical play. Who is the puck winner of the line? Larger defenseman and forwards will be able to push around Oates and Elias, who will stick up for them?


Line 3: I’m a big fan of your 3rd line, one of the best in this thing. I know you originally drafted Provost to play on your 1st line and then had to back up the bus and select Balderis, but it makes for a great 3rd line with Ramsay.


Overall there is no offensive game breaker on this team, it will have to be a "score by committee" type of team. My main concern with Nighbor who is the best offensive player on your team, is will you get full value out of his offense? Will he and Balderis be able to work well together?


D Pair 1: Above Average pairing with Kelly being a great number 1. Howell is slightly below average for a number 2 but he fits Kellys game well.

D Pair 2: I’ve already gone over this in the thread. IMHO this is one of the worst 2nd pairings in the draft. I’m wanting a reliable defensive presence on a 2nd pairing and I really don’t see it with either Beck or Boyle. Both are number 4’s and as a whole I’d be nervous seeing them against a ATD 1st or 2nd line and would put a lot of pressure on that top pairing.


Also im not sure of the function of your top unit PP. Who is the net presence? Who will be the playmaker Oates/Balderis or Boyle? There really isnt a trigger man.


Last edited by markrander87: 03-21-2012 at 01:24 PM.
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Old
03-21-2012, 12:47 PM
  #253
Hawkey Town 18
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Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
Toronto St.Pats

(1919-1927)
GM: Leafs Forever13
Head Coach: Jack Adams
Captain: Raymond Bourque
Assistant Captains: Wayne Cashman, Frank Boucher


Roy Conacher-Frank Boucher-Glenn Anderson
Gord Roberts-Marcel Dionne-Wayne Cashman
Fleming Mackell-Keith Primeau-Danny Gare
Marcel Bonin-Troy Murray-Rejean Houle

Raymond Bourque-Allan Stanley
Cy Wentworth-Gary Bergman
Red Dutton-George Owen

Ed Belfour
Al Rollins

Spares: Bobby Rowe, D/RW, Chris Drury C/LW, Stephane Richer W, Gerard Gallant LW,

PP1: Roy Conacher-Frank Boucher-Glenn Anderson
Raymond Bourque-Allan Stanley

PP2: Gord Roberts-Marcel Dionne-Wayne Cashman
Gary Bergman-George Owen

PK1:Fleming Mackell-Rejan Houle
Raymond Bourque-Cy Wentworth

PK2: Troy Murray-Marcel Bonin
Red Dutton-Allan Stanley
Forwards
1st Line: Frank Boucher is a great center and set-up man, and you got him a good goal scorer to work with in Roy Conacher. Anderson can bang away rebounds and do some corner work, which you need, but as far as 1st line RW's go, he's one of the weaker ones.

2nd Line: Dionne is a great 2nd line center, and I like him in that role because I think not having to be "the man" could help his playoff woes. Gord Roberts seems like a fine 2nd line goal scorer to capitalize on Dionne's playmaking. Cashman is a great guy to do the dirty work for this line and make sure no one messes with Dionne.

3rd Line: Gare and Mackell are good defensive players that can chip in offensively. I'm not a fan of Primeau as the center for this line. He will likely be fine defensively, but I think you will lose out on some of the offense that Gare and Mackell can provide because Primeau is not good enough offensively for them...particularly at playmaking, which the line is lacking, (I'm assuming Mackell's high assist finishes were when he was playing center). That being said, looking at your 1st two lines, it's more important that this line is good defensively than offensively.

4th Line: Nothing out of this world, but a solid defensive line, which I think was a good way to go for your team.

Defense
1st pairing: Very good. Bourque is obviously an elite #1. Stanley seems like a good partner for him. This pair should be pretty solid defensively with great breakout passing.

2nd pairing: Wentworth seems like a below average #3 to me. Not much AS recognition. Seems like he steps it up in the playoffs though, which should help some. When you took Bergman I thought he was pretty good value where you got him, but being that it was the 15th round, he's still a below average #4. This is a weak spot on your team.

3rd pairing: Honestly, I don't know much about Red Dutton. If you're up for doing it, a bio would be helpful to me. Owen seems like an ok offensive #6, but now that people are saying he played forward at times I don't know what to think...Maybe Rowe should get some time here?

Goaltending
Belfour is a solid goalie. His stock has been rising, but I still think you got decent value on him compared to some of the guys that went before him.

Powerplay
1st unit: Very good...hard to go wrong when you start with Bourque and Boucher

2nd unit: Dionne has to be one of the best, if not the best, 2nd unit guy in the draft. Roberts is good, and I actually think Bergman is ok. I think I like Gare over Cashman here. I've already spoke about my issues with Owen, but I think he's fine in this role.

Penalty Kill
Defensemen are good. I'd consider swapping Bonin out for Primeau. That way you can move Troy Murray up to the 1st unit for Houle and still have someone to take faceoffs on the second unit.

Coaching
Jack Adams is just an average coach IMO. Not much to say here.

Leadership
Nothing special, but not a concern either...Seems about average to me.


Strengths
2 lines that will be real scoring threats and a good 1st pairing.

Weaknesses
2nd D pairing. Maybe the 3rd (I really just don't know much about them). I also would like to see a minute chart for this team. Stanley is on a first pairing that you would think will get a lot of ES minutes as well as the 1st PP and 2nd PK units. How much can he handle?


Last edited by Hawkey Town 18: 03-21-2012 at 01:23 PM.
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Old
03-21-2012, 01:00 PM
  #254
monster_bertuzzi
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
The proof of Hextall's physical play is in his bio , which I linked in my roster post , the amount of quotes has also already been discussed and the vast majority seemed to agree that I found enough stuff to prove Hextall was physical.I've already been called out on this and it's been debated to death and I had to dig more to find other stuff , which I managed to do successfully with the help of sturminator who has a NYTIME membership.

But hey mark , while you're at it , since you are obviously on my case for no apparant reason , take the time to assassinate my team completely , you seem to enjoy it.
It looks like your team has sparked a lot of controversey this time around once again. I don't assasinate non-divisional rivals but a couple quick thoughts:

-Deep top 9 forward group, missing star power though. Nighbour-Denneny is a great connection, but neither are good enough to light up the score board throughout the season. Balderis isn't 1st line material, but I understand how you balanced out the lines.

-Fantastic top pair on defence, but I would consider switching Howell and Beck to be honest. Beck is solid enough to be paired with Kelly, and Boyle could use a true stalwart like Howell to cover for his inevitable gaffe's.

-The way your D stands right now it's weak after the Howell/Kelly pair (who will be exhausted once Pat Burns realizes how much he needs to play them).

-Poor goaltending.

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Old
03-21-2012, 01:15 PM
  #255
BillyShoe1721
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I disagree on Reise's placement in those tiers, and seventies will back me up on this one. We don't have data beyond the top 4 for a couple of years in Reise's prime. Here is how the years 49-50 to 53-54 shake out for him:

49-50: 3rd in AS Voting(2nd Team All Star)
50-51: 4th in AS Voting(2nd Team All Star), also made the AS game on merit
51-52: Only top 4 in AS Voting available, Reise made AS Game on merit, one of 11 defensemen to do so, and was on the "First Team" according to HR. I don't know if that means anything.
52-53: Only top 4 in AS Voting available, Reise made AS game on merit, one of 6 defensemen to do so and play against the Canadiens.
53-54: 11th in AS Voting

As far as I'm concerned, that's 5 seasons of being, at worst, a top 11 defenseman. Reise was also a top pairing defenseman on 2 cup winning teams, being called the linchpin of the Detroit defense in the late 40s and early 50s. And he did being a primarily defensive defenseman who was a devastating hitter.


Last edited by BillyShoe1721: 03-21-2012 at 01:35 PM.
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Old
03-21-2012, 01:42 PM
  #256
Jafar
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I don't think Nighbor is my best offensive player , Denneny is superior , I don't see the problem with their offense , you guys are underestimated them , not to mention my 2nd line is easily one of the best offensively while not being a complete mess defensively.

thanks to arrrbez , mark and sturm for the review , I will probably debate point by point tomorrow with some assassination on my part.It's a wonderful day outside , I'm out of here.

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Old
03-21-2012, 01:55 PM
  #257
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Much like Brian Rafalski in New Jersey, Vadnais was failure as a #1 defenseman while still in his physical prime - which casts doubt on his ability to handle top line forwards (and real NHL top lines are no better than ATD 2nd lines, and often worse). Vadnais' best seasons from an AST voting perspective were playing behind the greatest defenseman of all-time. Both Beck and Boyle have been very good #1s for about 8 seasons now. Boyle's teams have been on the whole quite good, and Beck was actually the best single player on somewhat lesser teams over most of his prime.

Looking quickly through the roster thread, I would rate the #4 defensemen roughly as follows:

High End: Crawford, Lowe, Beck/Boyle, Vasko/F. Patrick, Goldham/Ross, Housley, Hatcher/Duncan, Schoenfeld, Neilson/Simpson, Hall/Pratt

Above Average: Mortson, Wentworth/Bergman, Vadnais, Heller, Ramsey, Reise Jr., Harper

Below Average: Foote, Sjoberg, Burrows/Talbot, Drinkwater/Grant, Hollett, Harris, Carlyle, Tsygankov, Watson

Low End: Smith, Stanowski, Huddy, St. Laurent, Numminen, Ivanov

I think it's a toss-up who in the "high end" category is the best #4 in the league; there is no clear best #4 this year. You could order those players in any way and it would be plausible. There are also a number of defensemen playing #3 and even #2 roles who could be thrown into this mix, but I have restricted it only to #4 defensemen for our purposes. The teams that have two of these players (I count six of them) end up with about average second pairings, maybe slightly below average (ymmv), but certainly not bad ones.

...I'm sure this is going to create a huge ****storm, but so be it. It is probably for the best that we have a meaningful discussion of these players, many of whom have been grossly under or overrated historically in the draft.
I think Art Ross is clearly the best guy you have listed, though he's really Hawkey Town's #3. I'd probably pick Simpson next followed by Crawford/Duncan/Housley. I just don't see Beck/Lowe/whoever in their class and Boyle is still a few years away, IMO. For what it's worse, Housley, Crawford, Ross, and Simpson are the only guys listed who got serious consideration for the HOH top defensemen project (Housely's name came up a few rounds early IMO and Ross Crawford and Simpson would have come up in a couple of rounds if we extended the project).

Calling Boyle "a number 1 for eight years" is somewhat misleading. I don't think he even got the toughest assignments in San Jose until Blake retired, right?

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Old
03-21-2012, 02:01 PM
  #258
Velociraptor
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
1st Line

This line is going to have to do a bit of puckwinning by committee. It's not really strong in that area, but it shouldn't hold it back. The chemistry works well with Francis passing to Conacher the sniper, and Shutt cleaning things up in front. It should be good in its own end as well with Shutt and Francis. A well built first line.
Puck winning is the only flaw IMO, and it can be partially fixed by committee. The premise of this line is almost like the combination of both wingers' famous lines. Ron Francis draws a lot of similarities to Joe Primeau, Conachers' middleman on 'the Kid Line'. Steve Shutt was never the primary scorer on his line, Guy Lafleur was, so he'll be the net presence and he can clean up the garbage.

Quote:
2nd Line

This line should be a good two-way line as well. Lewis and Fedorov bring the necessary playmaking to take advantage of the goal-biased Leach, who you got very good value on. This line should be especially strong in the playoffs. It lacks a bit of oomph and offensive firepower though. In terms of 2nd lines, it's probably a bit behind offensively, but ahead of the pack defensively. I don't see a puckwinner on this line either.
And also, just wondering why you think it's a bit behind offensively. Fedorov was a high-octane offensive player, and Leach was a dynamic goalscorer. It has two-thirds of a dangerous offensive line IMO, Lewis is also above average offensively.

Quote:
3rd Line

This line should be quite difficult to play against. All 3 of these guys were good forecheckers, hitters, and corner men. They should be effective in pinning the other team in their own zone with the cycle game and physicality. They bring a good blend of physicality and two-way play to the table. They'll chip in points, but aren't great offensively.
Holik is an instrumental piece to matchup against Gretzky, Mikita, Beliveau, Crosby and Yzerman, the real 'big guns' in the Foster Hewitt division. A task I think he will prove to be very effective at.

Quote:
He was this hulking, 6'3" 220lb shutdown center, a fantastic faceoff man and one of the best defensive forwards in the game, shutting down the likes of Mark Messier and Eric Lindros.
I think the line will cycle it's opposition to death, and make themselves a real threat.

4th Line

Much like your 3rd line, this line will be quite annoying to play against as well. They'll be strong on the forecheck, and good in their own zone. They'll chip in some goals, but not too many.

Forwards Overall

One of the strongest group of forwards defensively in the draft. Leach and Conacher are the only 2 guys that aren't solid two-way players in your forward group. Unfortunately, this comes at the expense of offense. You have a good first line, a below average 2nd line, and an average bottom 6 in terms of offense. This group should be more successful and effective in the tighter checking playoffs compared to the regular season.

1st Pairing

You've got a gem in Potvin, and a nice stay at home guy paired next to him. A very solid 1st pairing.

Quote:
2nd Pairing

I find this pairing a bit underwhelming. Carlyle had one great season, and not much else after that in terms of a voting record. I think he's best suited as a very good #5. I'm a bit skeptical of Mohns' Norris record because in the years you listed, HR lists him as(in same order of the finishes in your bio): LW, D/RW, LW, D, D, D/LW, D/LW. Can somebody tell me how much he was actually playing D, and how much it might have been people looking at the leading scorers for "defensemen" and saying hey, he got a lot of points, I'll vote for him?
Despite starting out as an offensive-heavy defenseman, Carlyle became more efficient defensively and balanced out into a pretty complete defenseman in the final years of his career. As for Mohns, he played all over the place and it is kind of difficult to keep track of when he was playing up and when he was playing back, it's a lot like Red Kelly's case. He was predominantly at D for his 20-goal season, I know that much. But Mohns wasn't one-dimensional, he was also regarded as a solid defensive rearguard in addition to having good offensive assets.

3rd Pairing

Leduc and Morrow are both satisfactory bottom pairing defensemen, nothing special.

Goalies

I'm a fan of Parent, and I think you got good value where you took LeSueur. A solid goaltending tandem.

Quote:
Coaching

Hitchcock is a decent coach, and a great fit for this team. He'll love all the tight checking two-way forwards.
I think Hitch is the most appropriate coach for the team.

PP

Quote:
First unit looks good, 2nd units looks average to below average with Leduc bringing it down a bit.
I don't necessarily see how Leduc would bring it down? he wasn't an offensive liability, he is definitely the weakest roster defenseman, but he was solid enough offensively to make the second PP unit.

Quote:
PK

Very good PK units, which is to be expected because of all the good defensive forwards in your lineup. Maybe switch Francis and Fedorov on your PP units, which would allow Fedorov to be on your PK, which was one of the best things he did. Then slide Lewis to the 3rd unit. It would give you 2 wingers that would need to take a draw on the 3rd unit, but the weakness that causes is much smaller than the strength you get by replacing Lewis with Fedorov on the 2nd unit.
I will take this into consideration, thanks. Francis has a higher career power play percentage than Fedorov, I did it awhile ago but I think Francis was 73% or something around there.

Quote:
Overall

A pretty well built team. They will be very strong in their own end, and this team is built for the playoffs. The biggest issues I see are a lack of secondary scoring which could be exploited if somebody can shut down your top line, and a below average 2nd pair.
Thanks for the review, Billy. I think the second line is slightly underestimated by you, they are definitely offensively all there and can provide secondary scoring. This team is definitely constructed for the playoffs, 47 Stanley Cups, and a few players with fantastic playoff resumes, including Fedorov.

Edit: And the assassinations post is updated here:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=159[/QUOTE]

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Old
03-21-2012, 02:02 PM
  #259
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Nalyd Psycho, thanks for the good job you did with my team. I moved Erixon up to PK1.

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Old
03-21-2012, 02:10 PM
  #260
BillyShoe1721
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I thought that Fedorov was a lot better offensively in the regular season than he actually is. In the dead puck era, he only ever topped 80 points once. He had 2 big seasons in the early 90s. Leach had 3 huge seasons, and then not much else besides that. There are only four top 10s in points among all 3 of them. For a 2nd liner that played in the early O6, just 2 top 10s in points is a little concerning in a 32 team draft.

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Old
03-21-2012, 02:28 PM
  #261
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Yeah I don't think that Boyle has caught Heller at this point. Boyle has 3 top 6's in Norris Trophy voting so far, plus a season just outside of the top ten, Heller has 4 top 6s in All-Star voting, plus three seasons just outside of the top ten, plus more seasons with token all-star consideration. Lest we forget that offensively they're probably pretty similar considering that Heller has seven top 5 finishes in assists among defensemen. I think Heller isn't underrated according to his draft spot, but may be a little underrated when it comes time to rating teams and playing games. He just played such a solid game that he is forgotten about.

Plus Heller is better defensively than Boyle. He was large for his day and was strong with keeping people out of the slot, something Boyle can't do. Heller wasn't the skater Boyle was, but he at least was a good skater. Also he was known for being tough, and Boyle isn't necessarily a weakling, but he isn't physical either. Lest we forget Heller does still have a longevity edge.
aside: you missed a relevant finish for Boyle. Here is his AST voting record:

Quote:
Dan Boyle:

2002-03: 10th
2006-07: 4th
2008-09: 4th
2009-10: 6th
2010-11: 11th
*this season...my guess is Boyle finishes in the 10th-15th range. He's been the same player he was except for a bad 10 game stint where he was skating with a broken foot*
At any rate...I guess you just volunteered, which is probably a good thing because Heller is an almost perfect defenseman to illustrate my point. Here are Heller's relevant AST voting finishes* (I list 1st place votes after the dash for placements out of the top-4):

Quote:
1936-37: Siebert (21), Seibert (21), Goodfellow (15), Conacher (13), Wentworth (4-2), Heller (3-0), Coulter (2), Horner (2), McDonald (2)

1938-39: Shore (32), Coulter (22), Seibert (18), Clapper (16), Portland (9-1), Siebert (5-2), Buswell (4-1), Heller (3-2), Goodfellow (3-1), Crawford (3-1), Horner (3-1)

1939-40: Clapper (25), Goodfellow (25), Coulter (18), Seibert (20), Heller (8-3), C. Conacher (4-4)

1940-41: Clapper (28), Stanowski (17), Seibert (16), Heller (11), Goodfellow (13-2)??, Kampman (7-1)

1941-42: Anderson (25), Seibert (24), Egan (11), McDonald (10), Crawford (9-6), Kampman (8-1), Coulter (6-3), Clapper (5-4), Heller (4-1), Hollett (4-0)
*this took a lot of work...I hate going through AST data from this period*

Summed up:

6th (3 votes - 0 first place votes...narrowly beats Coulter)
8th (3 votes - 2 first place votes...way behind Coulter)
5th (8 votes - 3 first place votes...way behind Coulter)
4th (11 votes...well ahead of Coulter)
9th (4 votes - 1 first place vote...narrowly behind Coulter)

Other than that, Heller received token votes, mostly during wartime seasons. So what shall we make of this? Well, this is obviously Heller's athletic peak, as these seasons are all in order with a break only for 1937-38, when he only received one vote. At his peak, Heller was legitimately a clear #1 defenseman and finished 4th overall in the league one time (1940-41), in what was a mediocre season for defensemen (Stanowski 1st AST, Bingo Kampman in the top-6 vote-getters). He also curiously beat out Ebbie Goodfellow for the final all-star slot even though Goodfellow had received more AST votes, overall (and I believe 1st and 2nd team votes were valued equally...which is it's own can of worms). In Heller's next best season, he finishes a distant 5th and is the clear #2 on his own team. After that, he gets 4, 3 and 3 votes total, once clearly as a #2 and twice he and Coulter are close. How shall we translate this into modern terms?

I think if you magically pick Heller up and drop him at the start of his prime into, say, 2003-04, you probably end up with something like this:

Quote:
6th
8th
11th
12th
16th
...which basically makes him Mike Ramsey in terms of AST voting. He's only got one season in his career where he was clearly the best defenseman on his own team, and another couple seasons where he may have been. Is that as good as Dan Boyle? Almost certainly not. Heller is a good #4, but not a great one, and an almost perfect example of why we need to look much more closely into the voting records of these players.

Any more takers? I don't mean that in an adversarial way, but I've spent a fair amount of time digging into the records of these sort of mid-tier defensemen, and I've no problem explaining my conclusions to those who ask. As I have no horse in this race, I don't really care who gains and who loses in all of this.


Last edited by Sturminator: 03-21-2012 at 04:14 PM.
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Old
03-21-2012, 02:35 PM
  #262
vecens24
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Lol wait Sturm. You're now magically picking people up and dropping them into an era?! Dear god that's problematic. You can't just guess what people would have voted and how he would have been voted. That just is not sensible in any way.

Let alone if we move to their actual ATDvalue where Heller is a complete defenseman good at everything (glad you skipped over the seven top five finishes in assists during his career), and Boyle has obvious deficiencies that can be exploited such as his strength and relative defensive inadequacies compared to others.

I'm literally just going to ignore you posting that part about where he slots in a new era because that is literally entirely a nonsensical practice.

I find them as comparable defenseman in skill that Boyle just hasn't surpassed in longevity yet.

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Old
03-21-2012, 02:40 PM
  #263
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Harry Howell and Jack Crawford

I've been meaning to do this comparison for awhile, as I feel Jack Crawford (who I have) has traditionally been underrated here. I have also for some time suspected that Howell might be one of the classic cases of "only looking at the good things about an original 6 player," a feeling that grew with the defenseman project in HoH.

Harry Howell's Norris record: 1, 5, 6, 6, 9, 9, 10

Jack Crawford's All Star record: 1, 3, 5, 5, 7, 8, 8*

*not including 2 6s in the two war years when he had injury issues*

We have much more complete Norris results than we do AS results during Howell's career, which is why I'm using them.

By no means do I think Crawford is actually as good as Howell - his competition for these placements is much lower. But I think Howell has been historically overrated in the ATD as a guy who won a single Norris and never came close again. I think Howell is a passable #2, but probably best served as a
#3. If Howell played post-expansion, I doubt he makes the HHoF.

I also don't know why he has a rep as a defensive rock. For most of his career, he was among the leaders in points from defensemen and received very little in the way of Norris votes. His Rangers were usually at or near the bottom of the league in team defense. Seems he was elite defensively at the end of his career, but not for the majority of it. I think the ATD has traditionally overrated his D and underrated his O. He's not going to get torn apart on a top pairing though (he's a passable #2, though a weak one).

Like I said, Crawford is not as good as Howell due to the weakness of the league in the 1940s, but I think he falls somewhere around Babe Pratt/Jimmy Thomson territory as the best defenseman of the 40s not named Quackenbush, Stewart, Bouchard, or Reardon.

Now on to a mini-assassination of Reen's team:

I think Reen probably has the best two-way top 9 forwards in the draft, backed up by Red Kelly who should have great chemistry with Nighbor. Pat Burns was a very defensive coach, but he wasn't Lemaire - he'd let Kelly join the attack if he was confident he could get back (which he will be).

I don't think you have an offensive superstar, but mark is underrating Denneny - he, not Nighbor, is your best offensive guy and I think his power game makes him a very solid net guy.

The weakness of this team is on the back end. Your forwards can be the best defensive forwards in the draft (and they probably are), *but the majority of the responsibly of keeping the puck out of the net will fall to the defense and goaltending by the nature of the position. This would be an outright scary team if you had the defense and goaltending to back up that group of forwards. Red Kelly is great, but the defense beyond him is mediocre - I think Howell is a very weak #2 and Boyle is a few years away from being a legit #3. This team really could have used a high end #3 to make up for the weak #2 and I don't think it has one.

And I don't know if your goaltending is good enough to cover the issue. *

This team will be a contender. *The forwards + Red Kelly (who IMO is just as good as Denis Potvin) will guarantee that. *But I do think the rest of the back end could be an Achilles heal.

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03-21-2012, 02:41 PM
  #264
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
I disagree on Reise's placement in those tiers, and seventies will back me up on this one. We don't have data beyond the top 4 for a couple of years in Reise's prime. Here is how the years 49-50 to 53-54 shake out for him:

49-50: 3rd in AS Voting(2nd Team All Star)
50-51: 4th in AS Voting(2nd Team All Star), also made the AS game on merit
51-52: Only top 4 in AS Voting available, Reise made AS Game on merit, one of 11 defensemen to do so, and was on the "First Team" according to HR. I don't know if that means anything.
52-53: Only top 4 in AS Voting available, Reise made AS game on merit, one of 6 defensemen to do so and play against the Canadiens.
53-54: 11th in AS Voting

As far as I'm concerned, that's 5 seasons of being, at worst, a top 11 defenseman. Reise was also a top pairing defenseman on 2 cup winning teams, being called the linchpin of the Detroit defense in the late 40s and early 50s. And he did being a primarily defensive defenseman who was a devastating hitter.
And that in a relatively weak era is worth the same as Boyle's record? Was Reise ever the clear #1 on his own team? Transpose Reise's performance to present day, and my guess is you come out with something roughly like:

Quote:
4th
6th
9th
12th
15th
Which puts him right in the tier I've got him in. You guys don't think I posted this stuff without thinking about it, do you?

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03-21-2012, 02:43 PM
  #265
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Red Kelly (who IMO is just as good as Denis Potvin)

What makes you think that? When Reen first brought it up, there wasn't much credible information that Kelly was just as good, what makes you think he was on an equal level with Potvin?

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03-21-2012, 02:44 PM
  #266
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I'm literally just going to ignore you posting that part about where he slots in a new era because that is literally entirely a nonsensical practice.
It is? Don't we do pretty much the same thing when evaluating scoring for old-time players?

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03-21-2012, 02:44 PM
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Lol wait Sturm. You're now magically picking people up and dropping them into an era?! Dear god that's problematic. You can't just guess what people would have voted and how he would have been voted. That just is not sensible in any way.
...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
And that in a relatively weak era is worth the same as Boyle's record? Was Reise ever the clear #1 on his own team? Transpose Reise's performance to present day, and my guess is you come out with something roughly like:

Which puts him right in the tier I've got him in. You guys don't think I posted this stuff without thinking about it, do you?



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03-21-2012, 02:48 PM
  #268
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It is? Don't we do pretty much the same thing when evaluating scoring for old-time players?
Yes it absolutely is and no we don't. It's an entirely different idea when there are between 2-4 leagues playing high level hockey as compared to one singular league where all of the talent is concentrated. It's a totally different practice altogether.

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03-21-2012, 02:50 PM
  #269
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What makes you think that? When Reen first brought it up, there wasn't much credible information that Kelly was just as good, what makes you think he was on an equal level with Potvin?
Read round 2 of the defenseman project on HoH board. Basically, Kelly was even better offensively, while being excellent defensively too. Kelly and Doug Harvey were regular contenders for the Hart trophy when no other defenseman came close even once.

I think Kelly probably peaked just as high as Potvin, and for almost as long.

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03-21-2012, 02:53 PM
  #270
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So... what exactly makes Vadnais so much better than Ramage?
Well for one thing, a massive gap in all-star recognition. Also, about 2 more minutes per game for teams about 10% better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
I disagree on Reise's placement in those tiers, and seventies will back me up on this one. We don't have data beyond the top 4 for a couple of years in Reise's prime. Here is how the years 49-50 to 53-54 shake out for him:

49-50: 3rd in AS Voting(2nd Team All Star)
50-51: 4th in AS Voting(2nd Team All Star), also made the AS game on merit
51-52: Only top 4 in AS Voting available, Reise made AS Game on merit, one of 11 defensemen to do so, and was on the "First Team" according to HR. I don't know if that means anything.
52-53: Only top 4 in AS Voting available, Reise made AS game on merit, one of 6 defensemen to do so and play against the Canadiens.
53-54: 11th in AS Voting

As far as I'm concerned, that's 5 seasons of being, at worst, a top 11 defenseman. Reise was also a top pairing defenseman on 2 cup winning teams, being called the linchpin of the Detroit defense in the late 40s and early 50s. And he did being a primarily defensive defenseman who was a devastating hitter.
I dunno, heís above average at least. I donít know if Iím interested in quibbling over whether heís above average or high end. If that 1954 is legitimate and not just 1-2 votes, I guess that helps. I agree that the ASGs should be considered, and make his relevant all-star record is about 3, 4, 7, 8, which, with competition considered, would put him just a tad ahead of Ott Heller. I imagine if Sturm was to extrapolate those finishes to modern terms heíd have him right around Heller too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
Lol wait Sturm. You're now magically picking people up and dropping them into an era?! Dear god that's problematic. You can't just guess what people would have voted and how he would have been voted. That just is not sensible in any way..
There is definite merit to this. I think itís clear that any finish beyond the top-2 from past years isnít considered at the same ďlevelĒ as the same finish in more modern times, and some sort of adjustment should be made. Sturm is just displaying a visual of what almost all of us already do in our heads when evaluating players across eras. I donít know if heís using an actual formula or just ballparking it, nor do I want to comment on its accuracy at this time. But heís on the right track.

You may remember in the last MLD, when discussing Barry Gibbsí 9th and 11th AS finishes I made major concessions to my opponents, equating them to 18th and 22nd finishes in a mode modern context. I was much, much more harsh on my own player (who only played 40 years ago!) than Sturmís being to your guy from 80 years ago.

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03-21-2012, 03:01 PM
  #271
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Sturm is just displaying a visual of what almost all of us already do in our heads when evaluating players across eras. I donít know if heís using an actual formula or just ballparking it, nor do I want to comment on its accuracy at this time. But heís on the right track.
Just ballparking it based on a granular judgment of the value of each individual year's all-stars. So even within a single career, like Heller's, there is a phase where the all-star defensemen are pretty strong and one where they are pretty weak.

I don't know that a formula would do any better than the fuzzy math of my own addled mind.

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03-21-2012, 03:16 PM
  #272
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I think Art Ross is clearly the best guy you have listed, though he's really Hawkey Town's #3. I'd probably pick Simpson next followed by Crawford/Duncan/Housley. I just don't see Beck/Lowe/whoever in their class and Boyle is still a few years away, IMO. For what it's worse, Housley, Crawford, Ross, and Simpson are the only guys listed who got serious consideration for the HOH top defensemen project (Housely's name came up a few rounds early IMO and Ross Crawford and Simpson would have come up in a couple of rounds if we extended the project).

Calling Boyle "a number 1 for eight years" is somewhat misleading. I don't think he even got the toughest assignments in San Jose until Blake retired, right?
Boyle has led the Sharks in ES icetime by a good gap twice, and twice been very close to Vlasic, and that is mainly because Vlasic gets the shift right after powerplays while Boyle is resting. Yes, he is definitely the #1 at even strength. If you look at the wierd modern stats like QUALCOM and such, Boyle actually comes out surprisingly well over the past three seasons (dunno about his time in Tampa...my guess is that he had the tough assignments at least in his all-star season there...he led the NHL in ES minutes in 2006-07). I think he was playing somewhat sheltered minutes only in his first year in San Jose, but he was outright dominant in that role. In terms of overall icetime, he is by far the #1 in San Jose (he even plays a couple of PK minutes per night), and has been the team's best playoff performer, so yeah...he's the #1.

In terms of matching defensive pairings to opposing stars, McLellan doesn't really do it too much. He seems to believe in splitting up his best defensemen (which is why the #1 Boyle has almost always skated with Lukowich or Murray...blech), and pretty much just sends the top-2 pairings out based on who is fresh.

Regarding the list...I personally think Housley is the best player in that group, and maybe easily, but he's such a controversial figure, and I do think it is fairly damning that his ES performances were really pretty mediocre (as evidenced by a variety of stats). Simpson and Ross...there is so much we don't know about these guys. It's all pretty much gut feeling in judging these guys, isn't it? The upper limit of what they might have been is very good, but the lower boundary is also pretty low. Ross is ancient, and Simpson's best years were played in the utter obscurity of the WHL. It's just really hard to say.

Duncan, I've already had a crack at. I have a lot of respect for what he did in his best season, but the simple fact of the matter is that competition for PCHA all star berths on defense during Duncan's prime was quite weak. At the top, there was basically Moose and...? We can only assign so much credit based on the data that we have on Duncan.

I will have a go at Crawford presently.

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03-21-2012, 04:03 PM
  #273
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Jack Crawford's relevant AST voting record:

Quote:
1938-39: Shore (32), Coulter (22), Seibert (18), Clapper (16), Portland (9-1), Siebert (5-2), Buswell (4-1), Heller (3-2), Goodfellow (3-1), Crawford (3-1), Horner (3-1)

1940-41: Clapper (28), Stanowski (17), Seibert (16), Heller (11), Goodfellow (13-2)??, Kampman (7-1), Wilf Field (5-0), Coulter (4-1), Jack Crawford (4-0)

1941-42: Anderson (25), Seibert (24), Egan (11), McDonald (10), Crawford (9-6), Kampman (8-1), Coulter (6-3), Clapper (5-4), Heller (4-1), Hollett (4-0)

1942-43: Stewart (24), Seibert (21), Crawford (18), Hollett (16), Pratt (12-3), Clapper (5-0)

1943-44: Babe Pratt, Tor 632 (2-19-3-2); Earl Seibert, Chi 612 (16-4-4-4); Butch Bouchard, Mtl 277 (6-2-6-4); Dit Clapper, Bos 129 (1-3-2-1); Flash Hollett, Det 93 (0-0-3-7); Jack Crawford, Bos 67 (0-0-4-5); Cully Simon, Det 46 (1-0-1-1); Bob Davidson, Tor 42 (1-0-0-0)

1944-45: Butch Bouchard, Mtl 340.5 (15-10-1-0); Flash Hollett, Det 273 (1-12-5-7); Babe Pratt, Tor 93.5 (1-1-5-9); Glen Harmon, Mtl 60 (2-1-1-0); Frank Eddolls, Mtl 58.5 (1-0-2-1); Jack Crawford, Bos 57 (3-2-4-0); Earl Seibert, Chi 45 (0-1-6-2); Leo Lamoureux, Mtl 30 (3-0-1-0)

1945-46: Jack Crawford, Bos (6-3-3-3); Butch Bouchard, Mtl (5-6-0-1); Ken Reardon, Mtl (2-0-4-1); Jack Stewart Det (3-8-3-3); Bill Quackenbush, Det (0-0-2-4); Leo Lamoureux, Mtl (1-0-1-1)

1946-47: Ken Reardon, Mtl 13 (4-0-1); Butch Bouchard, Mtl 12 (2-3-0); Jack Stewart Det 11 (2-2-1); Bill Quackenbush, Det 11 (2-2-1); Jack Crawford, Bos 9 (1-3-0); Wally Stanowski, Tor 5 (1-0-2); Neil Colville, NYR 5 (0-1-3)

1947-48: Bill Quackenbush, Det 23 (4-1-0); Jack Stewart Det 21 (3-2-0); Ken Reardon, Mtl 19 (2-3-0); Neal Colville, NYR 14 (2-1-1); Jim Thomson, Tor 12 (1-2-1); Butch Bouchard, Mtl 7 (0-2-1); Jack Crawford, Bos 7 (0-1-4); Frank Eddolls, NYR 2 (0-0-2)
In simplified terms:

1938-39: tied for 9th in a pretty strong season - #3 on his own team
1940-41: 9th in a pretty weak season - way behind Clapper
1941-42: 5th in a very weak season - a bit ahead of Clapper
1942-43: 3rd in a weak season - clear #1
1943-44: 6th in a war year - well behind Clapper
1944-45: 6th in a war year - clear #1 (Clapper is all but done)
1945-46: 1st in a reasonably good year - clear #1
1946-47: 5th in a so-so year (6th and 7th are pretty bad) - clear #1
1947-48: 7th in a reasonable year - clear #1

In modern terms, I think that works out to something like (I will give the seasons I'm translating, you those of you scoring at home can more easily follow my arguments):

Quote:
2nd (1945-46)
5th (1942-43)
7th (1946-47)
9th (1941-42)
11th (1947-48)
13th (1943-44)
14th (1944-45)
DNP (1940-41)
DNP (1938-39)
I think that's being pretty fair. Crawford was a clear #1 for five seasons, once on a Cup winner, and four times on mediocre teams. The above probably does put Crawford ahead of Boyle, though only narrowly. Crawford is difficult to approximate because he peaked in almost precisely the worst competitive era in NHL history, so the actual and adjusted finishes are sometimes not that close, which I think is proper.

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03-21-2012, 04:22 PM
  #274
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Sturm, I think it's interesting that you listed Bergman as an above-average 4. I like him too and have drafted him in the past, but based on his usual draft position most GMs don't agree.

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03-21-2012, 04:28 PM
  #275
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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
Yes it absolutely is and no we don't. It's an entirely different idea when there are between 2-4 leagues playing high level hockey as compared to one singular league where all of the talent is concentrated. It's a totally different practice altogether.
What on earth are you talking about?

I am referring to the use of Vs2 scoring comparisons to approximate the value of scoring placements across eras rather than blindly throwing out top-10 scoring placements as though they are the same at all points in history.

With defensemen, there is a lot more fudging necessary because there is no clear numerical method of leveling the playing field, but it is absolutely necessary to put AST voting finishes in their proper context. Mid-tier old time defensemen have been overrated for far too long in the ATD, basically for two reasons:

- their achievements look better on paper than they would in a modern context because they played against shallower competition.

- we know almost nothing about their weaknesses

You can blubber all you want about how Dan Boyle is this or that, but if Boyle played during Heller's era, he's almost certainly a three-time all-star (probably once a 1st teamer) and called a "totally radical two-way defenseman!1!" by some ATD GM who digs up a few positive quotes about his defensive play (and there are plenty of them out there if you want to Google him, because he is actually a good two-way player).

We've made this transition already for the forwards, and rightfully so. It's time we move it along for the defensemen, as well.

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