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2012 CBA & Re-alignment: Uncle Gary Threatening Lockout (8-9-12)

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05-30-2012, 07:29 PM
  #101
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Hopefully those billions will turn into a real market for FLA, TB, PHX in the years ahead. North.

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05-30-2012, 08:52 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
The PA I can't imagine will back off 57% and why should they? The owners were patting themselves on the back after this CBA was announced seven years ago. They also assured the fans this deal would provide cost certainty.

With the cap being tied to profits, good luck trying to cry poor. The public will not be backing the owners like they did in '05.
The cap isn't tied to profits, it's tied to revenue. And how do you think public perception would change if the league pointed out that the players were getting between 75 and 80% of the profits. ALL expenses come out of the leagues 43% share. While my 75-80% is just back of the envelope math since we can't know for certain, it's close enough to make the point.

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05-30-2012, 09:20 PM
  #103
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The cap isn't tied to profits, it's tied to revenue. And how do you think public perception would change if the league pointed out that the players were getting between 75 and 80% of the profits. ALL expenses come out of the leagues 43% share. While my 75-80% is just back of the envelope math since we can't know for certain, it's close enough to make the point.
You think after announcing today the league hit an all time high of 3.3b in revenue, that Fehr won't have his PR machine portray the owners as greedy? With the concussion issues, especially Crosby, making big headlines all season, you think Fehr won't spin that in the NHLPA's favor? He is going to beat the hell out of the issue of how the owners assured the public they got the cost certainity they needed to run a healthy league. What is the over/under on how many times he will mention how the owner's got their cost certainity but don't have their own house in order (revenue sharing)?

What did Fehr say again today about the NHLPA? "They know they made huge concessions" when referring to the current CBA.

I don't know how many times I have to point it out to you that Fehr has continued to echo how the players got bent over and has been absolutely adamant they won't cut back on their current share.

Fehr has so much PR juice and avenues to deliver his agenda, that I am beyond certain he will roast the hell out of the owners if he has to.


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05-30-2012, 10:40 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
You think after announcing today the league hit an all time high of 3.3b in revenue, that Fehr won't have his PR machine portray the owners as greedy? With the concussion issues, especially Crosby, making big headlines all season, you think Fehr won't spin that in the NHLPA's favor? He is going to beat the hell out of the issue of how the owners assured the public they got the cost certainity they needed to run a healthy league. What is the over/under on how many times he will mention how the owner's got their cost certainity but don't have their own house in order (revenue sharing)?

What did Fehr say again today about the NHLPA? "They know they made huge concessions" when referring to the current CBA.

I don't know how many times I have to point it out to you that Fehr has continued to echo how the players got bent over and has been absolutely adamant they won't cut back on their current share.

Fehr has so much PR juice and avenues to deliver his agenda, that I am beyond certain he will roast the hell out of the owners if he has to.
You can point it out as often as you'd like, I've seen it and disregard it as the rhetoric that I believe it to be. To invoke Macbeth... it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Our only real difference here is that you are buying what Fehr is selling, and I'm not. I'm of the belief that it wouldn't matter if God himself was heading up the players union, the union would still fold under pressure. Fehr, or any other union leader, only has as much power as the solidarity of the union he is representing. If you believe that the union is ready to fall into lockstep and wait as long as it takes to completely and totally win this (and that's what keeping 57% would be) then I will respectfully agree to disagree with you and will certainly admit that I was wrong if they do.

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05-31-2012, 07:01 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Jonjmc View Post
You can point it out as often as you'd like, I've seen it and disregard it as the rhetoric that I believe it to be. To invoke Macbeth... it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Our only real difference here is that you are buying what Fehr is selling, and I'm not. I'm of the belief that it wouldn't matter if God himself was heading up the players union, the union would still fold under pressure. Fehr, or any other union leader, only has as much power as the solidarity of the union he is representing. If you believe that the union is ready to fall into lockstep and wait as long as it takes to completely and totally win this (and that's what keeping 57% would be) then I will respectfully agree to disagree with you and will certainly admit that I was wrong if they do.
The union was not nearly as educated in '04 like they are now, they were weak financially, they were divided from day one and they had a tremendous amount of pressure put on them by the public. Despite all of this, they still held out for a year.

If you are still under these same assumptions, you obviously haven't done your homework. The union is much stronger this time around, the owners are the ones divided and they will get little public sympathy after coming off a record breaking season for revenues, despite how they want to spin their share of the profits. This is the CBA they pushed for and assured the public that they needed to have a solvent league. They will have a tough time trying to garner sympathy when you consider the owners got all of the concessions they wanted in this CBA....

Since you enjoy quotes so much, I'll leave you with one of my favorite proverbs on leadership:

"Where there is no vision, the people perish"

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05-31-2012, 09:12 AM
  #106
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I have to say I wasn't all that happy when Fehr was chosen but the fact that he was chosen is itself a signal that the NHLPA has their **** together (unlike the last time), and that they are more unified than the last time.

You don't pick a guy like Fehr unless you're ready for a fight. It's that simple. He is a divisive figure, not a guy known for bringing parties together. He's plays games and he plays hardball. He's not a dispassionate negotiator, arguing for his side. To me, his mere presence indicates the union's intentions, which are to give as little as possible, in light of how much they gave last time.

Won't be shocked if there's an NBA-like delay to the season where it ends up starting in December instead of October but hopefully not. I don't think there's any danger of losing the whole season though. Games lost will be a tactic, not a sign of players willing to sit the whole season out and risk what the league has built. No one wants that and everyone is smart enough to know the damage it would do.

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05-31-2012, 12:03 PM
  #107
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Revenues are only half of the profit equation.

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05-31-2012, 12:31 PM
  #108
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I am not sure why prople thing $3.3 billion in revenues gives ammo to the players as far as the public perception battle goes. It proves pretty handily that the owners were right, that the system that they cam up with has risen all boats, including strongly so for the players. An adjustment to bring the owner/player division of profits in line with every other major sport is not going to sound unreasonable, and tinkering with any other part of the system would be madness given how well this system has worked.

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06-05-2012, 08:11 AM
  #109
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Looks like Sid had a conversation with Donald Fehr and said he "will be involved" in the process. Interesting. Might there be some talk there about how player contracts are able to be structured...? I think it's a good sign regardless. I don't see Sid as someone who will make divisive suggestions but rather will use common sense and put the game first and league competitiveness first. Starting with "I'll take whatever money I want even if it's $8.7 dollars a season; you're not breaking up my team with new salary demands for marquee players."

http://triblive.com/sports/penguins/...ent-bargaining

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06-05-2012, 08:37 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Hopefully those billions will turn into a real market for FLA, TB, PHX in the years ahead. North.
Florida would be a fine market if there weren't two teams there I think.


Last edited by Ogrezilla: 06-05-2012 at 08:44 AM.
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06-05-2012, 09:06 AM
  #111
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Florida would be a fine market if there weren't two teams there I think.
Doesn't help that they stuck their arena in the middle of the everglades, and there's zero chance they'll build a new one that's for sure.

IMO there is minimal interest in S. Florida for hockey and only slightly more interest in Tampa. When the teams play well, some fans come out and they do OK. When the teams struggle the arenas are half empty or worse. Not that any team wouldn't have some decrease in ticket sales when struggling year over year, but not to the degree those two teams do. It was a failed theory / experiment (not much different than ATL) by the NHL and they need to admit they made a mistake.

The idea was that if the city is big enough, enough people will come despite the lack of regional interest, but big population is secondary to interest level. Places like Winnipeg are better hockey markets than much larger towns like Miami and Tamp and PHX. Nashville is better because of the lack of competition from other teams. You need the right mix of circumstances and those will never exist in Miami, Tampa and PHX IMO. There will always be too little year-to-year interest and too much competition from other sports that fans care about much more than hockey.

Move the teams somewhere they will be appreciated and be "the big gig in town".

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06-05-2012, 09:16 AM
  #112
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Doesn't help that they stuck their arena in the middle of the everglades, and there's zero chance they'll build a new one that's for sure.

IMO there is minimal interest in S. Florida for hockey and only slightly more interest in Tampa. When the teams play well, some fans come out and they do OK. When the teams struggle the arenas are half empty or worse. Not that any team wouldn't have some decrease in ticket sales when struggling year over year, but not to the degree those two teams do. It was a failed theory / experiment (not much different than ATL) by the NHL and they need to admit they made a mistake.

The idea was that if the city is big enough, enough people will come despite the lack of regional interest, but big population is secondary to interest level. Places like Winnipeg are better hockey markets than much larger towns like Miami and Tamp and PHX. Nashville is better because of the lack of competition from other teams. You need the right mix of circumstances and those will never exist in Miami, Tampa and PHX IMO. There will always be too little year-to-year interest and too much competition from other sports that fans care about much more than hockey.

Move the teams somewhere they will be appreciated and be "the big gig in town".
After seeing our team almost move I will never wish for another fan base to lose a team. That doesn't mean it won't happen or shouldn't happen, but I won't wish it on them.


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06-05-2012, 09:25 AM
  #113
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After seeing our team almost move I will never wish for another fan base to lose a team. That doesn't mean it won't happen or shouldn't happen, but I won't wish it on them. .

My interest is in the health of the league long-term. The league never stood to gain by losing the Penguins. That would've been a loss to all involved. I understand too that the Steelers are the biggest game in town, but Pittsburgh is a decent sized city AND... PA in general has hockey roots and there is a lot more regional interest in the game itself, than anywhere in FLA or AZ. You know the league... they don't learn. They were dumb enough to make the same mistake twice in ATL. When I was a kid, there were some hockey leagues down there... but it doesn't matter. The city as a whole doesn't care about hockey. Some places everything takes a seat in the trunk (not the back seat) to football. ATL and FLA are two such places.

It's not as much about south as it is about demographics. It can work in places like Nashville and Raleigh because the demographics works, the mix works. I don't see it ever changing in FLA, even if more youth hockey is introduced. Not a question of youth interest and building a base (the ole soccer theory, which still hasn't panned out 30 years later).

I don't want the teams to move on account of not caring about the small group of die hard fans there, but on account of wanting some other city (like Winnipeg or Nashville) to have a franchise that is the toast of the town and has great long-term prospects.

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06-05-2012, 09:34 AM
  #114
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My interest is in the health of the league long-term. The league never stood to gain by losing the Penguins. That would've been a loss to all involved. I understand too that the Steelers are the biggest game in town, but Pittsburgh is a decent sized city AND... PA in general has hockey roots and there is a lot more regional interest in the game itself, than anywhere in FLA or AZ. You know the league... they don't learn. They were dumb enough to make the same mistake twice in ATL. When I was a kid, there were some hockey leagues down there... but it doesn't matter. The city as a whole doesn't care about hockey. Some places everything takes a seat in the trunk (not the back seat) to football. ATL and FLA are two such places.

It's not as much about south as it is about demographics. It can work in places like Nashville and Raleigh because the demographics works, the mix works. I don't see it ever changing in FLA, even if more youth hockey is introduced. Not a question of youth interest and building a base (the ole soccer theory, which still hasn't panned out 30 years later).

I don't want the teams to move on account of not caring about the small group of die hard fans there, but on account of wanting some other city (like Winnipeg or Nashville) to have a franchise that is the toast of the town and has great long-term prospects.
I really like the idea of spreading hockey in general. Youth hockey in Florida is growing. I think eventually it'll catch on more than it has so far. You can't expect it to take off in a few years or maybe even 15-20 years. But eventually it'll be better for the game and for the league to have southern states interested in hockey.

How many new fans does the NHL or hockey in general get by adding a team in Canada? About zero. It helps with revenue right now, but long term bringing in new fans somewhere else spreads the game.

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06-05-2012, 10:42 AM
  #115
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I really like the idea of spreading hockey in general. Youth hockey in Florida is growing. I think eventually it'll catch on more than it has so far. You can't expect it to take off in a few years or maybe even 15-20 years. But eventually it'll be better for the game and for the league to have southern states interested in hockey.
Actually I don't think it matters at all in the scheme of things. The league can have tremendous financial success, even subtracting the southern (and one western) team we're talking about. It's not about spreading or multiplying; it's about the quality of the product and part of that is filling arenas and having fans who really know and love the game.

As I mentioned I don't think youth hockey will have any more impact on the general interest level of ticket paying adults over time, than youth soccer has had on that sport (which has endured not only failed franchises but failed leagues). Soccer is still a second rate sport in this country despite decades of strong push for youth soccer, that has spread like killer dandelions all over the country. Youth soccer is everywhere; it's a huge success and has been for years... but it never translated at the pro level because the fan interest is not there for filling 50K-100K seat stadiums all over the country, the way it is everywhere else. Most people who played soccer as kids, lose interest. It's that simple.

Americans can't stomach watching endless back-and-forth sports with low scoring or even games that end 0-0. It's not in our DNA. The only reason more Americans like hockey is because of the physical elements of the game. The hitting, the 100mph slapshots... it makes the 2-1 games tolerable for many people. The whole OTL thing was introduced party for this reason: so there is always a winner. That is something the NHL people did right.

Bottom line though, is you need a very specific mix of factors to have a successful NHL franchise and "big city with little interest but youth programs" will never cut it, anymore than it cuts it for soccer. IMO.

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06-08-2012, 09:55 AM
  #116
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Everyone, keep the debate on point and if someone takes a personal swipe / makes a smart-assed comment with no other points made, let the mods handle it. Report it if you think it's bad enough. We'll catch it at some point during the day.

Thanks guys.


Last edited by Homeland Security: 06-08-2012 at 12:51 PM. Reason: Removed QP
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06-08-2012, 11:54 AM
  #117
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{MOD EDIT}

Everyone, keep the debate on point and if someone takes a personal swipe / makes a smart-assed comment with no other points made, let the mods handle it. Report it if you think it's bad enough. We'll catch it at some point during the day.

Thanks guys.
Guys,
I wasn't taking a swipe at anyone. Revenues are the entire pot of money brought into an organization. They aren't part of the profit equation.


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06-08-2012, 12:01 PM
  #118
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Guys,
I wasn't taking a swipe at anyone. Revenues are the entire pot of money brought into an organization. They aren't part of the profit equation.
Haha. They aren't?

Profit = revenue - cost


The point of my original post was that even though revenues go up, costs will go up also, especially with smaller market teams. Some teams are already operating on a budget to ensure they don't lose money. The fact that things can be tied to revenues is fine, but it has to be noted that how long will the revenues go up, which in turn makes the cap go up, and then you have more budget teams than teams spending to the cap. I mean, teams are in this to be profitable.

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06-08-2012, 12:15 PM
  #119
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STOP.

This is not an accounting class; do not derail the Chancellor's thread.

Anyone who is really dying for some financial reading, go here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profit_(accounting)

Keep all talk in this thread to information regarding the new CBA, the salary cap or re-alignment.

Thank you.


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06-08-2012, 02:49 PM
  #120
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Actually I don't think it matters at all in the scheme of things. The league can have tremendous financial success, even subtracting the southern (and one western) team we're talking about. It's not about spreading or multiplying; it's about the quality of the product and part of that is filling arenas and having fans who really know and love the game.

As I mentioned I don't think youth hockey will have any more impact on the general interest level of ticket paying adults over time, than youth soccer has had on that sport (which has endured not only failed franchises but failed leagues). Soccer is still a second rate sport in this country despite decades of strong push for youth soccer, that has spread like killer dandelions all over the country. Youth soccer is everywhere; it's a huge success and has been for years... but it never translated at the pro level because the fan interest is not there for filling 50K-100K seat stadiums all over the country, the way it is everywhere else. Most people who played soccer as kids, lose interest. It's that simple.

Americans can't stomach watching endless back-and-forth sports with low scoring or even games that end 0-0. It's not in our DNA. The only reason more Americans like hockey is because of the physical elements of the game. The hitting, the 100mph slapshots... it makes the 2-1 games tolerable for many people. The whole OTL thing was introduced party for this reason: so there is always a winner. That is something the NHL people did right.

Bottom line though, is you need a very specific mix of factors to have a successful NHL franchise and "big city with little interest but youth programs" will never cut it, anymore than it cuts it for soccer. IMO.
Then explain Dallas?

I'm about to move to Atlanta from Louisiana and I've been a Penguin fan since 1991. Hockey did not survive in my city (Baton Rouge) due to this being a college town that puts LSU and Southern University athletics before anything else. This is football country, which is why I don't think the Hornets will last here either. However, I looked at Atlanta the same way I see Dallas .... It's a city that has a lot of people moving in from elsewhere so the mindset changes. My Louisiana cities don't have that so hockey couldn't grow here like it should have.

Atlanta's issue was ownership ... It is an international city, like Dallas, that should have been able to handle a major team in each professional league.

You are correct that it takes a lot of factors to have a flourishing NHL franchise .... could you imagine if Lemieux didn't come in? OWNERSHIP is an important factor which is what killed Atlanta. They had a base like Nashville, but the ownership did not invest properly in that team and had thoughts of 41 extra dates for the Phillips Arena (with the Georgia Dome dwarfing it right there, a similar situation to New Orleans fairly soon in my opinion).

While it will help the coffers of the NHL to move to cities more familar with the game, it won't grow the game and will keep it a distant fourth in the US.

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06-08-2012, 03:20 PM
  #121
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I disagree WRT to ATL. Nashville is a much better town in terms of loyal sports fans, because unlike Atlantans they appreciate what they have, win or lose.

BOTH times the league thought "Here's a big city with lots of midwestern transplants; hockey will work in ATL... fans will come." And both times it was proven over the course of several years to be false. You can only use the owner excuse so much before you have to acknowledge the possibility that the people just don't give a ****. Granted ATL did not have good teams, but they did have a great arena and some major talents there for a while (Kovachoo, Hossa most notably).

The reality is Atlantans as a whole, simply do not give a **** about hockey. The right mix of demographics is not present in that city. This is how sports rank in GA and ATL:


1. College Football (UGA, GA TECH, now GA ST)
3. The Falcons
4. The Braves if they're winning big
5. HS Football
6. The Hawks if they're winning big
7. The Thrashers / everything else

Notice I skipped 2. Hockey will never be a viable, profitable sport year over year in ATL. Nor will it be in FLA or PHX IMO. You put the teams where the sport has roots in the public consciousness. Dallas is a better sports town than ATL is the simplest explanation there although probably not the whole story. They follow their teams more closely, win or lose, save for the way people in ATL follow college football. Note I've spent some of my life in ATL and have relatives there still, including disenfranchised fans of former IHL and NHL teams. They all verify what I suspect: fans don't care. Even fans who attended Thrasher games were said to be there more socially than to follow the game / team. It's part of the culture there that is the problem.

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06-08-2012, 03:50 PM
  #122
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I disagree WRT to ATL. Nashville is a much better town in terms of loyal sports fans, because unlike Atlantans they appreciate what they have, win or lose.

BOTH times the league thought "Here's a big city with lots of midwestern transplants; hockey will work in ATL... fans will come." And both times it was proven over the course of several years to be false. You can only use the owner excuse so much before you have to acknowledge the possibility that the people just don't give a ****. Granted ATL did not have good teams, but they did have a great arena and some major talents there for a while (Kovachoo, Hossa most notably).

The reality is Atlantans as a whole, simply do not give a **** about hockey. The right mix of demographics is not present in that city. This is how sports rank in GA and ATL:


1. College Football (UGA, GA TECH, now GA ST)
3. The Falcons
4. The Braves if they're winning big
5. HS Football
6. The Hawks if they're winning big
7. The Thrashers / everything else

Notice I skipped 2. Hockey will never be a viable, profitable sport year over year in ATL. Nor will it be in FLA or PHX IMO. You put the teams where the sport has roots in the public consciousness. Dallas is a better sports town than ATL is the simplest explanation there although probably not the whole story. They follow their teams more closely, win or lose, save for the way people in ATL follow college football. Note I've spent some of my life in ATL and have relatives there still, including disenfranchised fans of former IHL and NHL teams. They all verify what I suspect: fans don't care. Even fans who attended Thrasher games were said to be there more socially than to follow the game / team. It's part of the culture there that is the problem.
I'm dreading that part of this move .... I'm from a place where college football is king and the NFL is a close second. I have no affection for any ATL teams.

Where do you think these two frnachises would be better? I don't see any other Canadian cities that can satisfy what the NHL needs so you are looking at Southern or Western US cities again, excluding Kansas City, who has lost a team just like Atlanta.

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06-08-2012, 04:12 PM
  #123
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Haha. They aren't?

Profit = revenue - cost


The point of my original post was that even though revenues go up, costs will go up also, especially with smaller market teams. Some teams are already operating on a budget to ensure they don't lose money. The fact that things can be tied to revenues is fine, but it has to be noted that how long will the revenues go up, which in turn makes the cap go up, and then you have more budget teams than teams spending to the cap. I mean, teams are in this to be profitable.
I was thinking you were confusing revenue with profit, hence my comment. My apologies if that wasn't the case. Back on topic here, I agree costs are going up, but is that a function of the salary floor? That topic has been debated ad nauseum on the business board, but I do agree with it. As the cap goes up, by necessity, so does the floor. It will be interesting to see how this is addressed next go around. I think this is where Fehr will work over some of the owners who aren't thrilled already with where the floor currently resides. He's a huge proponent of revenue sharing & this is a ready made case for it. The richer teams won't like it, but since pro sports are a little more socialist by definition than traditional business, it shouldn't be that big a deal. Having said that, it will be....

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06-08-2012, 06:41 PM
  #124
Darth Vitale
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Originally Posted by Kingfish79 View Post
I'm dreading that part of this move .... I'm from a place where college football is king and the NFL is a close second. I have no affection for any ATL teams.

Where do you think these two frnachises would be better?
Kansas City for one. I think you have a demographic there very similar to STL and a similar situation that will yield a successful franchise. They will go for hockey before baseball IMO. The Chiefs and whoever ends up in the hockey rink will be the big shows in town. And the arena is ready to roll.

Portland would also be good but I believe there's some type of problem with their arena so a new building would be required / can't use the Rose Garden.

Seattle possibly

Canada: Quebec City, maybe a second (suburban) team in the Toronto region... although I know people argue against that too and the Leafs wouldn't like it.

If the arena part can be made to happen, any of those places would have a much more loyal and productive fan base than any of PHX, TB, FLA.

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Old
06-08-2012, 06:52 PM
  #125
Ogrezilla
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Kansas City for one. I think you have a demographic there very similar to STL and a similar situation that will yield a successful franchise. They will go for hockey before baseball IMO. The Chiefs and whoever ends up in the hockey rink will be the big shows in town. And the arena is ready to roll.

Portland would also be good but I believe there's some type of problem with their arena so a new building would be required / can't use the Rose Garden.

Seattle possibly

Canada: Quebec City, maybe a second (suburban) team in the Toronto region... although I know people argue against that too and the Leafs wouldn't like it.

If the arena part can be made to happen, any of those places would have a much more loyal and productive fan base than any of PHX, TB, FLA.
I don't know much about KC, but does Missouri really need two teams?

Seattle makes sense. Canada does too though I think the more Canadian the league the more of a stigma it will have in the States. Adding Canadian teams isn't the way to get better coverage here.

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