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Old
03-25-2012, 12:35 PM
  #1
Steve Shutt
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Lottery Odds

The 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Odds are listed below - as of March 23rd

25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs
6.2% - Minnesota Wild
4.7% - Tampa Bay Lightning
3.6% - Anaheim Ducks
2.7% - Carolina Hurricanes
2.1% - Winnipeg Jets
1.5% - Buffalo Sabres
1.1% - Calgary Flames
0.8% - San Jose Sharks
0.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado)

See: http://www.mynhldraft.com/2012-nhl-draft-lottery-odds/

Important to note that Montreal not only has a 14.2 % of moving up but that they also have a 29.7% chance of moving back to 4th if NYI, Toronto, Minny, or Tampa win the lottery.

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Old
03-25-2012, 12:37 PM
  #2
Jack Bourdain
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Toronto's going to win the lottery.

/jinx

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Old
03-25-2012, 12:40 PM
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schumway2
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I'm very excited for April 10th considering the last time we we're involved in one of these we came out very well.

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03-25-2012, 12:43 PM
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Steve Shutt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schumway2 View Post
I'm very excited for April 10th considering the last time we we're involved in one of these we came out very well.
Agreed - Carey Price was a pretty sweet addition at #5. I remember biting my nails as the lottery involved all teams and we slowly looked like we might have a shot at Crosby

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03-25-2012, 12:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Shutt View Post
The 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Odds are listed below - as of March 23rd

25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs
6.2% - Minnesota Wild
4.7% - Tampa Bay Lightning
3.6% - Anaheim Ducks
2.7% - Carolina Hurricanes
2.1% - Winnipeg Jets
1.5% - Buffalo Sabres
1.1% - Calgary Flames
0.8% - San Jose Sharks
0.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado)

See: http://www.mynhldraft.com/2012-nhl-draft-lottery-odds/

Important to note that Montreal not only has a 14.2 % of moving up but that they also have a 29.7% chance of moving back to 4th if NYI, Toronto, Minny, or Tampa win the lottery.
Lucky as they are this year...That's exactly what's gonna happen !

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Old
03-25-2012, 12:45 PM
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DAChampion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Shutt View Post
The 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Odds are listed below - as of March 23rd

25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs
6.2% - Minnesota Wild
4.7% - Tampa Bay Lightning
3.6% - Anaheim Ducks
2.7% - Carolina Hurricanes
2.1% - Winnipeg Jets
1.5% - Buffalo Sabres
1.1% - Calgary Flames
0.8% - San Jose Sharks
0.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado)

See: http://www.mynhldraft.com/2012-nhl-draft-lottery-odds/

Important to note that Montreal not only has a 14.2 % of moving up but that they also have a 29.7% chance of moving back to 4th if NYI, Toronto, Minny, or Tampa win the lottery.
FYI those are not the true odds as they don't take into account the rule that a team can only move up or down by 4 spots.

One would need to know exactly how it's calculated to figure out the adjusted odds. Do they pick the 16th place team first or the 1st place team first?

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Old
03-25-2012, 12:45 PM
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If we finish 3rd,

14.2% chance of drafting 1st
56.1% chance of drafting 3rd
29.7% chance of drafting 4th

If we finish 2nd,

18.8% chance of drafting 1st
42.0% chance of drafting 2nd
39.2% chance of drafting 3rd

We gotta pass EDM.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
FYI those are not the true odds as they don't take into account the rule that a team can only move up or down by 4 spots.

One would need to know exactly how it's calculated to figure out the adjusted odds. Do they pick the 16th place team first or the 1st place team first?
They are the odds of winning the lottery (hence moving up four spots, or drafting 1st overall if you're in the Top 5). Only one ball is removed from the ping pong machine. That team is the lottery winner and moves up four spots. The rest of the order is adjusted accordingly.

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Old
03-25-2012, 12:48 PM
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Strik_IX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
FYI those are not the true odds as they don't take into account the rule that a team can only move up or down by 4 spots.

One would need to know exactly how it's calculated to figure out the adjusted odds. Do they pick the 16th place team first or the 1st place team first?
I thought it was can't move uo more than 4 and can't move down more than 1 spot.

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Old
03-25-2012, 12:52 PM
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The lottery is on April 10th?!!?! So soon!

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Old
03-25-2012, 12:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strik_IX View Post
I thought it was can't move uo more than 4 and can't move down more than 1 spot.
Yup.

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Old
03-25-2012, 01:03 PM
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Steve Shutt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PyrettaBlaze View Post
The lottery is on April 10th?!!?! So soon!
It will be live on TSN as well.

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Old
03-25-2012, 01:04 PM
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Should be interesting. I would not be surprised if we fall a spot back, but who knows. I certainly hope not.

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03-25-2012, 01:08 PM
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Gary320
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Knowing our luck this year, it wouldn't shock me if we move back a spot.

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Old
03-25-2012, 01:11 PM
  #14
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If we win the lottery........

:heartattack:

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Old
03-25-2012, 01:16 PM
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Habsfan18
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We MUST finish in bottom 3.

Must.

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03-25-2012, 01:19 PM
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We Want The 25
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we are probably gonna get screwed over and move back . i think the most you can move ahead or back is 4 spots right?

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03-25-2012, 01:20 PM
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LyricalLyricist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by We Want The 25 View Post
we are probably gonna get screwed over and move back . i think the most you can move ahead or back is 4 spots right?
Yes, most up (towards #1) is 4 spots and max back is 1 spot.

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Old
03-25-2012, 02:07 PM
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Ice Poutine
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Quote:
Originally Posted by We Want The 25 View Post
we are probably gonna get screwed over and move back . i think the most you can move ahead or back is 4 spots right?
...with our luck they'll find some new technicality and move us back like 15 spots.

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03-25-2012, 02:09 PM
  #19
Habaneros
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Originally Posted by Ice Poutine View Post
...with our luck they'll find some new technicality and move us back like 15 spots.
at the 39 second mark of this video , everyone touch the screen 3 times ..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0xeX...eature=channel

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Old
03-25-2012, 02:11 PM
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Havent been this excited for A day with the Habs since last April vs the Bruins in game 7 when Subban scored.

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03-25-2012, 02:14 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by Habs4life74 View Post
Havent been this excited for A day with the Habs since last April vs the Bruins in game 7 when Subban scored.
I will never forget that goal.
Can hardly wait to see more of those.

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Old
03-25-2012, 02:20 PM
  #22
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I will never forget that goal.
Can hardly wait to see more of those.
Watching it now gives me goosebumps. The hand jester was PRICELESS.

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Old
03-25-2012, 02:30 PM
  #23
dcal64
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Originally Posted by Steve Shutt View Post
It will be live on TSN as well.
Who do you think the Habs send to TSN to represent them?

Maybe we should have a poll on this, my guess is that it will not be PG.

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Old
03-25-2012, 02:35 PM
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Bill McNeal
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Originally Posted by dcal64 View Post
Who do you think the Habs send to TSN to represent them?

Maybe we should have a poll on this, my guess is that it will not be PG.
Molson. Just seems like the type of thing he'd do.

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Old
03-25-2012, 03:12 PM
  #25
Teufelsdreck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Shutt View Post
The 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Odds are listed below - as of March 23rd

25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs
6.2% - Minnesota Wild
4.7% - Tampa Bay Lightning
3.6% - Anaheim Ducks
2.7% - Carolina Hurricanes
2.1% - Winnipeg Jets
1.5% - Buffalo Sabres
1.1% - Calgary Flames
0.8% - San Jose Sharks
0.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado)

See: http://www.mynhldraft.com/2012-nhl-draft-lottery-odds/

Important to note that Montreal not only has a 14.2 % of moving up but that they also have a 29.7% chance of moving back to 4th if NYI, Toronto, Minny, or Tampa win the lottery.
In that case the sad sack Blue Jackets would drop one notch, but it was the intention of the NHL to put a speed bump in the way of teams deliberately dropping to the bottom. That's how the Penguins ended up with Malkin instead of Ovechkin, although it's not exactly a tragedy.

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