14.2% chance of drafting 1st
56.1% chance of drafting 3rd
29.7% chance of drafting 4th
If we finish 2nd,
18.8% chance of drafting 1st
42.0% chance of drafting 2nd
39.2% chance of drafting 3rd
We gotta pass EDM.
Originally Posted by DAChampion
FYI those are not the true odds as they don't take into account the rule that a team can only move up or down by 4 spots.
One would need to know exactly how it's calculated to figure out the adjusted odds. Do they pick the 16th place team first or the 1st place team first?
They are the odds of winning the lottery (hence moving up four spots, or drafting 1st overall if you're in the Top 5). Only one ball is removed from the ping pong machine. That team is the lottery winner and moves up four spots. The rest of the order is adjusted accordingly.
Important to note that Montreal not only has a 14.2 % of moving up but that they also have a 29.7% chance of moving back to 4th if NYI, Toronto, Minny, or Tampa win the lottery.
In that case the sad sack Blue Jackets would drop one notch, but it was the intention of the NHL to put a speed bump in the way of teams deliberately dropping to the bottom. That's how the Penguins ended up with Malkin instead of Ovechkin, although it's not exactly a tragedy.