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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft Pt. 2

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04-03-2012, 09:52 AM
  #501
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Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
Problem is we're on a hot streak and I think they want to end the season on a 'good' note.
And as players, they should. I'm just saying, look at the rest of the season. We play @ Nashville, Chicago and Phoenix. All playoff teams, playing for positioning. Meanwhile...

Tampa Bay @ Montreal
Tampa Bay @ Toronto
Montreal @ Carolina
Edmonton @ Anaheim
Anaheim @ Calgary
Toronto @ Montreal
Carolina @ a bipolar Florida
NYI @ Columbus

... all between now and the end of the season.

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04-03-2012, 09:52 AM
  #502
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I hate the fact that I am agreeing with you more and more as this nightmare year just drags out toward its unenviable conclusion.
Muhahahahah! Welcome to the DARK SIDE!

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04-03-2012, 09:56 AM
  #503
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Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
And as players, they should. I'm just saying, look at the rest of the season. We play @ Nashville, Chicago and Phoenix. All playoff teams, playing for positioning. Meanwhile...
Yes, and so was Calgary when we beat them, Chicago when we beat them, and Florida.

Quote:
Tampa Bay @ Montreal
Tampa Bay @ Toronto
Montreal @ Carolina
Edmonton @ Anaheim
Anaheim @ Calgary
Toronto @ Montreal
Carolina @ a bipolar Florida
NYI @ Columbus
What does this prove? Minnesota might not end up 10th but it looks more than likely they'll sit outside the top 5 AGAIN this year and probably end up 7th or 8th.

There are two tiers this year in prospects, top 5 and 5-10.

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04-03-2012, 09:57 AM
  #504
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Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
Yes, and so was Calgary when we beat them, Chicago when we beat them, and Florida.



What does this prove? Minnesota might not end up 10th but it looks more than likely they'll sit outside the top 5 AGAIN this year and probably end up 7th or 8th.

There are two tiers this year in prospects, top 5 and 5-10.
I would say there are three tiers. Top 3, 3-6, and then 7-10.

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04-03-2012, 10:00 AM
  #505
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Originally Posted by Avder View Post
I would say there are three tiers. Top 3, 3-6, and then 7-10.
I think 2-5 can be interchangeable if someone decides to be crazy like Edmonton.

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04-03-2012, 10:03 AM
  #506
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Originally Posted by Avder View Post
I would say there are three tiers. Top 3, 3-6, and then 7-10.
There's something of 3 tiers, but it goes:

Yakupov
2-5/6 (depending on your view of Forsberg/Rielly)
6/7-9

More explicitly:

Yakupov

Galchenyuk, Dumba, Grigorenko, Murray, Forsberg/Rielly (imo in that order, possibly swapping Grig and Dumba)

Rielly/Forsberg, Trouba, Ceci, Reinhart

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04-03-2012, 10:03 AM
  #507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
Yes, and so was Calgary when we beat them, Chicago when we beat them, and Florida.



What does this prove? Minnesota might not end up 10th but it looks more than likely they'll sit outside the top 5 AGAIN this year and probably end up 7th or 8th.

There are two tiers this year in prospects, top 5 and 5-10.
This proves that teams surrounding us in the standings are guaranteed to get points, and we are not.

I'm not sure where you heard the tiers, but I've seen a lot of variation from picks 2-7 or 8.

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04-03-2012, 10:03 AM
  #508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avder View Post
I would say there are three tiers. Top 3, 3-6, and then 7-10.
Disagree, I would say two.

(in no particular order)

Nail Yakupov
Mikhail Grigorenko
Ryan Murray
-----
Filip Forsberg
Matt Dumba
Morgan Reilly
Alex Galchenyuk
Griffin Reinhart
Jacob Trouba

Thats the way I see it. Reilly and Galchenyuk have great upsides but injuries have limited their viewings and raised questions of their progressions. So that latter group can all move around, wouldn't be surprised to see one taken over the other.

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04-03-2012, 10:09 AM
  #509
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Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
This proves that teams surrounding us in the standings are guaranteed to get points, and we are not.
Guaranteed?

I think the 3rd spot is definitely out of question. 4th is questionable too because Columbus has been on a hot streak as well and they got the 1st slot all but locked up.


I just don't see Minnesota moving up to the 5th spot without winning the lottery.

Quote:
I'm not sure where you heard the tiers, but I've seen a lot of variation from picks 2-7 or 8.
Variations on defense. There is a lot of questions surrounding the defensemen but Murray is apparently head of the pack...so around 1-4, 1-5...

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04-03-2012, 10:17 AM
  #510
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Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
Guaranteed?

I think the 3rd spot is definitely out of question. 4th is questionable too because Columbus has been on a hot streak as well and they got the 1st slot all but locked up.


I just don't see Minnesota moving up to the 5th spot without winning the lottery.



Variations on defense. There is a lot of questions surrounding the defensemen but Murray is apparently head of the pack...so around 1-4, 1-5...
Yes, guaranteed. With the way that NHL point system is constructed, when two team play each other, one of the teams is guaranteed to receive points in the standings, whether it be two points for a victory or one point for a loss in overtime or a shootout.

So, what I am saying is that either the teams below us will get more points, thus potentially passing us in the standings and ensuring us a better draft pick, or the teams above us will get points, ensuring us to stay below them and not get a worse pick. Of course this all depends on what we do in our remaining games, but still.

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04-03-2012, 10:18 AM
  #511
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Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
Guaranteed?

I think the 3rd spot is definitely out of question. 4th is questionable too because Columbus has been on a hot streak as well and they got the 1st slot all but locked up.


I just don't see Minnesota moving up to the 5th spot without winning the lottery.



Variations on defense. There is a lot of questions surrounding the defensemen but Murray is apparently head of the pack...so around 1-4, 1-5...
Dumba has become more or less the consensus "best d-man" in the draft. Rielly is viewed as the most talented defenseman, but has injury worries. It's entirely likely that 4 forwards (Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, Forsberg) go in the top 5 picks. If they don't, it's probably Galchenyuk (who is #2 on "my board" and Flahr is infatuated with) who slips. It's highly improbable we pick outside of the 4-8 range. The worst case scenario in that range is we end up with Trouba or Ceci/Reinhart. Ask a couple people around here what they think of ending up with Trouba...

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04-03-2012, 10:22 AM
  #512
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Dumba has become more or less the consensus "best d-man" in the draft.
I've been seeing Murray since last year as the best.

Quote:
Rielly is viewed as the most talented defenseman, but has injury worries. It's entirely likely that 4 forwards (Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, Forsberg) go in the top 5 picks. If they don't, it's probably Galchenyuk (who is #2 on "my board" and Flahr is infatuated with) who slips. It's highly improbable we pick outside of the 4-8 range. The worst case scenario in that range is we end up with Trouba or Ceci/Reinhart. Ask a couple people around here what they think of ending up with Trouba...
Ask what people think about Trouba vs Grigorenko?

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04-03-2012, 10:27 AM
  #513
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
I've been seeing Murray since last year as the best.



Ask what people think about Trouba vs Grigorenko?
Grigorenko will almost certainly be off the board in the top 5. Trouba and Grigorenko are not even close to being in the same tier.

There was one "anonymous scout" (more like attention ***** or publicity artist) who cried about Grigorenko's work ethic. It's quite likely he ends up in Montreal.


Edit to address Murray comment:

And we've been hearing since last year that Ebert is one of the top 5 defensemen in the draft. Now he's hoping not to fall past the 2nd round. There's a very open debate as to whether Dumba or Murray is the better defenseman, and it seems that Dumba has taken the edge (with off the wall people like Button ranking Murray almost out of the top 10).

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04-03-2012, 10:38 AM
  #514
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Dumba has become more or less the consensus "best d-man" in the draft. Rielly is viewed as the most talented defenseman, but has injury worries. It's entirely likely that 4 forwards (Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, Forsberg) go in the top 5 picks. If they don't, it's probably Galchenyuk (who is #2 on "my board" and Flahr is infatuated with) who slips. It's highly improbable we pick outside of the 4-8 range. The worst case scenario in that range is we end up with Trouba or Ceci/Reinhart. Ask a couple people around here what they think of ending up with Trouba...


Quote:
Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
Ask what people think about Trouba vs Grigorenko?
Trouba, hands down. I know these views been debated both here and on other boards, but the fact that some scouts are apparently questioning his competitiveness is a huge red flag for me. I could not care less that he is russian, I just want a guy to compete. Trouba is that guy.

My rational:

Trouba hits hard. He's got a shot. He hits hard. He's pretty big and his hockey I.Q. is apparently pretty damn good. Plus, I don't think I've mentioned this, but he hits hard. Put him on this team right now and wait a bit for him to get used to the game/speed and I guarantee he would be our best hitter within 1-2 months. Maybe not as many as Clutterbuck(hell, I highly doubt he ever gets Clutter's numbers), but I bet he would get more consistently big/game-changing hits than Clutter.

Trouba looks like he could be a future Olympian. When was the last time the Wild had an actual American Olympic player? Finnish and Czech and Slovakian guys are nice and all, but no one but the true die hards care about them. When Olympics roll around guys want to cheer for their team first, players second. I cheer for Team USA over any other team in the Olympics and I would love to be able to buy a Team USA jersey I could wear at a Wild game and not feel like one of the Calgary-wearing losers at Edmonton/Wild games.

I was an advocate for taking Gal if we were down in the 2-4 range but right now it is looking like he'll be gone by wherever we pick now. Trouba is our guy.

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04-03-2012, 10:52 AM
  #515
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I think if we are in the top 9, you can't go wrong with any of the picks. Each of them have top line/pairing upsides. For me, you can discuss who you rather have, but at the end of the day, you aren't going to be disappointed either way.

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04-03-2012, 10:54 AM
  #516
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I think if we are in the top 9, you can't go wrong with any of the picks. Each of them have top line/pairing upsides. For me, you can discuss who you rather have, but at the end of the day, you aren't going to be disappointed either way.
I feel the same way. Granted, I have my favorites of the lot and it'd sure be nice to have Yakupov but honestly. Some just seem to be over-dramatic for the sake of doing so.

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04-03-2012, 04:14 PM
  #517
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I'm still not sold on Forsberg and would rather take a defenseman over him if the top 3 big forwards are off the board. If the top 3 F are off the board, I'm looking for a defenseman. If we can't get an elite forward, we sure as Shirley better get an elite D.

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04-03-2012, 04:23 PM
  #518
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I'm still not sold on Forsberg and would rather take a defenseman over him if the top 3 big forwards are off the board. If the top 3 F are off the board, I'm looking for a defenseman. If we can't get an elite forward, we sure as Shirley better get an elite D.


I'd be happy with anyone in the top 7(ish). Bottom line? Any of those players will be a huge upgrade over who we have plugging our injury-riddled team.

I'm actually kind of happy that we moved down - now we can realistically snag Trouba.

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04-03-2012, 04:31 PM
  #519
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I'd be happy with anyone in the top 7(ish). Bottom line? Any of those players will be a huge upgrade over who we have plugging our injury-riddled team.

I'm actually kind of happy that we moved down - now we can realistically snag Trouba.
I'd be happy with that. And going on with what tyratoku said, we'd actually have someone to cheer for in the Olympics. It'd be nice having one on our team that we can actually root for personally.

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04-03-2012, 04:35 PM
  #520
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I'd be happy with that. And going on with what tyratoku said, we'd actually have someone to cheer for in the Olympics. It'd be nice having one on our team that we can actually root for personally.
That would be nice.

Canada and Russia are always powerhouses, I tend to root for the U.S, Finland, and Sweden because they're semi-underdogs who still have a chance to win gold.

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04-03-2012, 04:39 PM
  #521
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That would be nice.

Canada and Russia are always powerhouses, I tend to root for the U.S, Finland, and Sweden because they're semi-underdogs who still have a chance to win gold.
Definitely. And it felt amazing to watch Sweden dominate everybody during the WJC. Not to mention being able to see 3 prospects succeed. Well, Gustaffson succeeding is debatable, but he did win the Gold.

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04-03-2012, 04:54 PM
  #522
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Here's an interesting question, if we are picking 8, and Grigrenko is dropping, do we snagged him if he's still on the board? When it is worth it to grab him? At some point, despite his concerns, he becomes a steal. Where is that point?

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04-03-2012, 04:58 PM
  #523
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Here's an interesting question, if we are picking 8, and Grigrenko is dropping, do we snagged him if he's still on the board? When it is worth it to grab him? At some point, despite his concerns, he becomes a steal. Where is that point?
Depends on who got picked ahead of him to make him drop. If, for some reason, Rielly or Trouba are still there as well, then maybe we let him pass. If we're staring at Reinhart, Gaunce or Grigorenko, then he deserves a hard look. I know it could be bad logic (especially with a recent example like Fowler), but there very well could be a good reason that he would be dropping.

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04-03-2012, 04:58 PM
  #524
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As much as I have my concerns about Grigo, if he's there at 8 you take him and don't look back. "I never look a gift horse in the mouth"

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04-03-2012, 04:59 PM
  #525
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Here's an interesting question, if we are picking 8, and Grigrenko is dropping, do we snagged him if he's still on the board? When it is worth it to grab him? At some point, despite his concerns, he becomes a steal. Where is that point?
And a steal can still be a bust... O'Sullivan was supposed to go in the top half of the first round, we all celebrated such a steal late in the second...look how that turned out.

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