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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft Pt. 2

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Old
03-25-2012, 05:41 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Lagoon View Post
I didn't read the link, but the examples looked pretty definitive - the 6-10 picks seem like the classic HF Boards trade bait: "take Kadri, Paavarji, Gagner, Filatov, please," or busts ala Shep. Hopefully Granlund ends up better than our last 9 overall.
Of course, if you not so randomly grab years to prove a point:

2003

1 - Fleury
2 - E. Staal
3 - Horton
4 - Zherdev
5 - Vanek
----------------------
6 - M. Michalek
7 - Suter
8 - Coburn
9 - Phaneuf
10 - A. Kostitsyn


2001
1 - Kovalchuk
2 - Spezza
3 - Svitov
4 - Weiss
5 - Chistov
------------------
6 - M. Koivu
7 - Komisarek
8 - Leclaire
9 - T. Ruutu
10 - Blackburn


Of course the higher picks are going to be better, that's why they're picked higher.

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03-26-2012, 08:58 AM
  #52
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Back up to 4th actual, 4th projected.

But look at that, one point separating 2-4. It's really, really possible to get up to 2nd overall. And then you have an 18.8% shot of getting 1st.

Pythagorean Draft Position
DraftTeamPtsGRPPGPythProjOddsHighest
1stCOLUMBUS5570.730.3416025.0%1st
2ndEDMONTON7160.930.4647718.8%1st
3rdMONTREAL7160.930.4757714.2%1st
4thMINNESOTA7270.960.3657810.7%1st
5thNY ISLANDERS7370.970.383798.1%1st
6thTORONTO7560.990.452816.2%2nd
7thCAROLINA7560.990.454814.7%3rd
8thANAHEIM7560.990.454813.6%4th
9thTAMPA BAY7581.010.406822.7%5th
10thWINNIPEG7871.040.462852.1%6th
11thCALGARY8361.090.458891.5%7th
12thBUFFALO8461.110.467901.1%8th
13thWASHINGTON8461.110.483910.8%9th
14thCOLORADO8651.120.476910.5%10th
15thPHOENIX8751.130.506930.0%15th
16thOTTAWA8661.130.514930.0%16th
17thSAN JOSE8671.150.519940.0%17th
18thFLORIDA8771.160.460940.0%18th
19thLOS ANGELES8671.150.537940.0%19th
20thDALLAS8771.160.492950.0%20th
21stNEW JERSEY9061.180.498970.0%21st
22ndCHICAGO9261.210.521990.0%22nd
23rdBOSTON9171.210.6271010.0%23rd
24thNASHVILLE9661.260.5521030.0%24th
25thDETROIT9571.270.5971040.0%25th
26thPHILADELPHIA9671.280.5741050.0%26th
27thVANCOUVER9971.320.6031080.0%27th
28thPITTSBURGH10071.330.6171100.0%28th
29thNY RANGERS10171.350.6061110.0%29th
30thST LOUIS10361.360.6571120.0%30th

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Old
03-26-2012, 09:14 AM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
But look at that, one point separating 2-4. It's really, really possible to get up to 2nd overall. And then you have an 18.8% shot of getting 1st.
And that is about all we have to look forward to, and why I am praying that while we stay somewhat competitive, we do not win a single game out of our remaining schedule. I want feel good losses from here on out.

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03-26-2012, 09:20 AM
  #54
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We are dangerously close to 9th, but I'd have to guess at least two of the teams with 75 points earn at least 2 more wins this year. As long as we stay under 4 wins the rest of the way, we should finish no worse than 7th. For reference, here are the remaining schedules for the Wild and others nearby:

Montreal - FLA, NYR, WSH, TB, CAR, TOR (3 teams playing for something, 3 teams threatening our draft position)
Edmonton - DAL, LA, ANA, LA, ANA, VAN (4 teams playing for something, 2 teams threatening our draft position)
NYI - PIT, PIT, BOS, OTT, NJD, WPG, CBJ (4 teams playing for something, 2 teams not, don't help us)
TOR - CAR, PHI, BUF, BUF, TB, MTL (3 teams playing for something, 3 teams threatening our draft position)
CAR - TOR, WPG, NJD, OTT, MTL, FLA (3 teams playing for something, 2 teams threatening our draft position, 1 team unaffected)
ANA - SJS, PHX, EDM, VAN, EDM, CGY (2-3 teams playing for something, 2 teams threatening our draft position, 1-2 teams unaffected)
TB - PHI, BOS, NJD, WPG, WSH, MTL, TOR, WPG (4 teams playing for something, 2 teams threatening our draft position, 2 teams unaffected)


MIN - NYR, FLA, LA, CHI, NSH, CHI, PHX (5 teams playing for something, 2 trying hard not to move "up" [Chicago's better off as 6 seed playing Dallas than 5 playing Nashville])

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03-26-2012, 09:21 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Back up to 4th actual, 4th projected.

But look at that, one point separating 2-4. It's really, really possible to get up to 2nd overall. And then you have an 18.8% shot of getting 1st.

Pythagorean Draft Position
DraftTeamPtsGRPPGPythProjOddsHighest
1stCOLUMBUS5570.730.3416025.0%1st
2ndEDMONTON7160.930.4647718.8%1st
3rdMONTREAL7160.930.4757714.2%1st
4thMINNESOTA7270.960.3657810.7%1st
5thNY ISLANDERS7370.970.383798.1%1st
6thTORONTO7560.990.452816.2%2nd
7thCAROLINA7560.990.454814.7%3rd
8thANAHEIM7560.990.454813.6%4th
9thTAMPA BAY7581.010.406822.7%5th
10thWINNIPEG7871.040.462852.1%6th
11thCALGARY8361.090.458891.5%7th
12thBUFFALO8461.110.467901.1%8th
13thWASHINGTON8461.110.483910.8%9th
14thCOLORADO8651.120.476910.5%10th
15thPHOENIX8751.130.506930.0%15th
16thOTTAWA8661.130.514930.0%16th
17thSAN JOSE8671.150.519940.0%17th
18thFLORIDA8771.160.460940.0%18th
19thLOS ANGELES8671.150.537940.0%19th
20thDALLAS8771.160.492950.0%20th
21stNEW JERSEY9061.180.498970.0%21st
22ndCHICAGO9261.210.521990.0%22nd
23rdBOSTON9171.210.6271010.0%23rd
24thNASHVILLE9661.260.5521030.0%24th
25thDETROIT9571.270.5971040.0%25th
26thPHILADELPHIA9671.280.5741050.0%26th
27thVANCOUVER9971.320.6031080.0%27th
28thPITTSBURGH10071.330.6171100.0%28th
29thNY RANGERS10171.350.6061110.0%29th
30thST LOUIS10361.360.6571120.0%30th
Haha! Look at St. Louis, they have no chance at getting Yakupov... morons.

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Old
03-26-2012, 09:25 AM
  #56
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Columbus actually locked up last place. 55 points with 7 games is max 14 points which would be 69, less than Edmonton now.

As for the Wild, I don't care if they aren't competitive. I really don't care about the team as it's currently constructed. I liked Brodziak a little, otherwise they had their chance and blew it. I'd love a franchise guy to come in and take over and the prospects to replace the garbage roster over the next couple years. I don't think I'd be sad seeing anyone traded off, including Koivu.

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03-26-2012, 09:30 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Columbus actually locked up last place. 55 points with 7 games is max 14 points which would be 69, less than Edmonton now.

As for the Wild, I don't care if they aren't competitive. I really don't care about the team as it's currently constructed. I liked Brodziak a little, otherwise they had their chance and blew it. I'd love a franchise guy to come in and take over and the prospects to replace the garbage roster over the next couple years. I don't think I'd be sad seeing anyone traded off, including Koivu.
I agree with most of this, I just hope they don't look like total garbage because despite everything, I will still be watching the last few games I think I need help.

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03-26-2012, 09:32 AM
  #58
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With our remaining schedule, I don't know if we can win 2 games out of those 7. I could see FLA and CHI being wins which should get us into the top 5. The team is just bad as currently constructed, a 2nd overall pick in this draft would go a long ways in making this horrible year worth it.

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03-26-2012, 09:49 AM
  #59
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God we might get the #2 overall and get within striking distance of Nail.

I wonder what Columbus is going to do. They need a Stamkos like #1 pick, but that isn't available this year. I can see them having question marks with Nail and Grigs. Do they trade down and go Gal?

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03-26-2012, 09:53 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by nickschultzfan View Post
God we might get the #2 overall and get within striking distance of Nail.

I wonder what Columbus is going to do. They need a Stamkos like #1 pick, but that isn't available this year. I can see them having question marks with Nail and Grigs. Do they trade down and go Gal?
They'll take Nail if they get #1, I think anyone would.

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03-26-2012, 10:01 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Columbus actually locked up last place. 55 points with 7 games is max 14 points which would be 69, less than Edmonton now.

As for the Wild, I don't care if they aren't competitive. I really don't care about the team as it's currently constructed. I liked Brodziak a little, otherwise they had their chance and blew it. I'd love a franchise guy to come in and take over and the prospects to replace the garbage roster over the next couple years. I don't think I'd be sad seeing anyone traded off, including Koivu.
I've thought about this a lot, the last month. As long as our top prospects aren't included in a trade, anyone currently on our NHL roster should be fair game in my book. If we are to trade Koivu, I'm sure we all agree, we need Granlund to sign first.

The Brodziak extension to me signified that we were afraid of losing him now but once, we see what we have with some of these prospects, he's as good as gone in a few years.

And as much, as I don't want to admit it. Clutterbuck might be our greatest trade asset. Realistically, what do you think he could bring us back at the draft?

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03-26-2012, 10:13 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by nickschultzfan View Post
God we might get the #2 overall and get within striking distance of Nail.

I wonder what Columbus is going to do. They need a Stamkos like #1 pick, but that isn't available this year. I can see them having question marks with Nail and Grigs. Do they trade down and go Gal?
Stats-wise, there's not much of a difference between Nail and Stammer.

Columbus will draft Nail unless they can get "fair value" for the pick. I can't see "fair value" existing out there. Unless a team like Montreal finishes 2nd or 3rd and tries to move up, Columbus won't be able to net fair value. I can't imagine Howson will be in charge at that point, and Columbus would probably get screwed over in pretty much any trade I can imagine teams offering.

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03-26-2012, 10:14 AM
  #63
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Just to be a complete Debbie Downer for a moment, remember that with the Wild's luck, someone within 4 picks behind us will win the draft lotto and push us back a spot so it's safe to assume we'll be picking 1 worse than our final position indicates.

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03-26-2012, 10:18 AM
  #64
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And as much, as I don't want to admit it. Clutterbuck might be our greatest trade asset. Realistically, what do you think he could bring us back at the draft?
I don't know if I'd be in favor of it, but packaging him with our (Washington's) 2nd rounder, I wonder how far back into the 1st that could get us?

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03-26-2012, 10:19 AM
  #65
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True, and that's why I'm pretty okay with a #2 or #3 finish, but #4 or #5 worries me.

I think Brodziak was re-signed because our current NHL depth is garbage and Cullen is clearly not as advertised. Granted this year was probably worse than even your worst-case scenario for injuries, but you need to have someone reliable if and when your primary option(s) go down.

Not to mention guys like Coyle and Larsson are a couple years away, and we still need four NHL centers next year.

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03-26-2012, 10:20 AM
  #66
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I don't know if I'd be in favor of it, but packaging him with our (Washington's) 2nd rounder, I wonder how far back into the 1st that could get us?
Guessing ~ 15th?

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03-26-2012, 10:20 AM
  #67
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Just to be a complete Debbie Downer for a moment, remember that with the Wild's luck, someone within 4 picks behind us will win the draft lotto and push us back a spot so it's safe to assume we'll be picking 1 worse than our final position indicates.
Get outta here Negative Nancy.

It could happen, but maybe we get #2 overall and have a great shot at winning the lottery. Columbus only has a 25% chance to win the lottery, doesn't that seem a little low? Also, I can't ever seem to remember, but someone always "wins" the lottery right? I mean the percentages add up to 100%, so that's what I would think. Those odds seem low for a team that had to endure a tough year like Columbus has, but I get not wanting teams to tank.

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03-26-2012, 10:24 AM
  #68
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I would put the odds of the Wild not drafting a Russian (where ever they are in the draft; and in any round) at 99%. I don't believe for a second that they'll draft one. Even if they were to get the first overall...

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03-26-2012, 10:25 AM
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Guessing ~ 15th?
Interesting... I wonder if our 3rd + Clutter would get us back in there, maybe in the bottom 3rd?

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03-26-2012, 10:25 AM
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Last year New Jersey won the lottery with 3.6% odds and moved up to 4th to grab Larsson.

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03-26-2012, 10:26 AM
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I would put the odds of the Wild not drafting a Russian (where ever they are in the draft; and in any round) at 99%. I don't believe for a second that they'll draft one. Even if they were to get the first overall...
Why would you say that? This group has no history with them.

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03-26-2012, 10:26 AM
  #72
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I would put the odds of the Wild not drafting a Russian (where ever they are in the draft; and in any round) at 99%. I don't believe for a second that they'll draft one. Even if they were to get the first overall...
I think they'd go Nail #1 (you HAVE to) but my guess is they go top defenseman if they get #2 or later. Although I'd have to think Grigo and Gal have a higher ceiling than all other non-Nail skaters.

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03-26-2012, 10:30 AM
  #73
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Why would you say that? This group has no history with them.
Gut. Just watching how they approach the draft and where they're drafting from and who/what type of prospects they're passing up.

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I think they'd go Nail #1 (you HAVE to) but my guess is they go top defenseman if they get #2 or later. Although I'd have to think Grigo and Gal have a higher ceiling than all other non-Nail skaters.
I think they'd spin it that Murray has been there right with Yakupov the entire way. Murray has had the hype for several years now. Not saying that it would be the right move, it's just the impression I get.

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03-26-2012, 10:32 AM
  #74
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If that's the case, I'd hope they'd trade down first, then grab him at 3-4.

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03-26-2012, 10:33 AM
  #75
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Get outta here Negative Nancy.

It could happen, but maybe we get #2 overall and have a great shot at winning the lottery. Columbus only has a 25% chance to win the lottery, doesn't that seem a little low? Also, I can't ever seem to remember, but someone always "wins" the lottery right? I mean the percentages add up to 100%, so that's what I would think. Those odds seem low for a team that had to endure a tough year like Columbus has, but I get not wanting teams to tank.
Columbus has a 25% chance of "winning" the lottery, but remember, if anyone 6th or later wins the lottery, Columbus gets the same result. The only way the last place team doesn't "win" is if a team in 2nd-5th wins. It calculates out to about 48.2% chance Columbus picks 1st.

Edit: typed 4th when I meant 5th...


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