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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft Pt. 2

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04-09-2012, 09:40 AM
  #901
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Wow, Dumba fell all the way to #11 and Ceci is at #6. Also of note is that Maata is above Reinhart and Trouba on these rankings. The Wild are going to have a lot of options at this pick, it seems like everyone is all over the place past the top 3 or 4.

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04-09-2012, 09:48 AM
  #902
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Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
Wow, Maatta ahead of Dumba...

Is there a place to find archived rankings from years past? It would be interesting to see how they ranked the 2004-2007 drafts, and see which players they hit and missed on.
I believe centralscouting.nhl.com has them hosted. I've never looked and the nhl.com websites don't like to load on my work computer. Wikipedia has at least the last few years listed on their individual draft pages.

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04-09-2012, 09:53 AM
  #903
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Also, as a note, the CSS rankings always have a couple weird quirks. For example, in 2010, Pysyk was ranked 7th amongst NA skaters, drafted 23rd. Etem was ranked 8th, drafted 29th, Johansen ranked 10th, drafted 4th. Same goes for 2011, Beaulieu (17) was ranked above Strome (5), and Jaskin (41) ranked above Klefbom (19).

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04-09-2012, 10:38 AM
  #904
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Dumba, Murray, or Reinhart.

Or Grigrenko if he falls. Cause I want to see:

Coyle-Koivu-Philllips
Zucker-Grigrenko-Granlund
Bulmer-Brodziak-Larsson
Kassian-Powe-Clutterbuck

Time travel me to 2014 plz.

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04-09-2012, 10:59 AM
  #905
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It's sounding more and more like Montreal's draft board goes Yakupov-Galchenyuk-huge space-everyone else.

With that in mind, unless something crazy happens (like new GM demanding Grigorenko be the draft pick) the top 3 (barring lotto changes) will likely be:

1-Yakupov
2-Murray
3-Galchenyuk

So, with NYI @ 4 likely to go wing or defense, it'll be interesting to see how things turn out. Maybe Burke doesn't like Grigorenko (has he ever drafted a Russian?) and goes off the board. We could end up seeing:

4-Dumba
5-Rielly
6-Forsberg (yes, I'm being ridiculous at this point)
7-Grigorenko

Another possibility being:

4-Forsberg
5-Dumba
6-Trouba
7-Grigorenko

Or perhaps:

4-Forsberg
5-Trouba
6-Grigorenko
7-Dumba

If Edmonton selects Murray and Montreal goes with Galchenyuk, things can get very interesting very quickly.

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04-09-2012, 11:07 AM
  #906
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Dang, It's a shame that Galchenyuk is continually ranked so high. There's no way he falls to us.

From the CSS rankings - Wow, I was extremely surprised to see how Ceci, Faksa, and Maatta were ranked so high. I haven't heard anything extremely impressive about them. Could be an interesting draft with quite a few highly ranked players falling.

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04-09-2012, 11:11 AM
  #907
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Originally Posted by Minnesota View Post
Dang, It's a shame that Galchenyuk is continually ranked so high. There's no way he falls to us.

From the CSS rankings - Wow, I was extremely surprised to see how Ceci, Faksa, and Maatta were ranked so high. I haven't heard anything extremely impressive about them. Could be an interesting draft with quite a few highly ranked players falling.
Maatta's a bit baffling. However, Ceci has been ranked in the top 10 pretty consistently. Faksa (until the injury, which isn't considered) was easily the 5th best forward in the draft.

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04-09-2012, 11:12 AM
  #908
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Trouba vs Reinhart.. They seem so similar. And I've seen people on each side of the fence saying one has the higher upside. Wonder if Reinhart's bloodlines will give him an edge. Either way, I just hope Fletcher doesn't settle on whoever he picks.

Brodin and Granlund were near the top of his list. If the players at the top of his list are gone I'd rather him trade back rather than make a pick for the sake of making one.

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04-09-2012, 11:18 AM
  #909
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Trouba vs Reinhart.. They seem so similar. And I've seen people on each side of the fence saying one has the higher upside. Wonder if Reinhart's bloodlines will give him an edge. Either way, I just hope Fletcher doesn't settle on whoever he picks.
Couldn't be farther from the truth, sir!

Trouba has more physicality and offensive element to his game. Reinhart is a more reliable, shut-down type. He hasn't fully developed a physical edge to his game yet. Reinhart is further along in his development, and is looking like the safer pick. Trouba has a much higher ceiling because he hasn't even attended college yet. He's somewhat unpredictable.

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04-09-2012, 11:18 AM
  #910
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
It's sounding more and more like Montreal's draft board goes Yakupov-Galchenyuk-huge space-everyone else.

With that in mind, unless something crazy happens (like new GM demanding Grigorenko be the draft pick) the top 3 (barring lotto changes) will likely be:

1-Yakupov
2-Murray
3-Galchenyuk

So, with NYI @ 4 likely to go wing or defense, it'll be interesting to see how things turn out. Maybe Burke doesn't like Grigorenko (has he ever drafted a Russian?) and goes off the board. We could end up seeing:

4-Dumba
5-Rielly
6-Forsberg (yes, I'm being ridiculous at this point)
7-Grigorenko

Another possibility being:

4-Forsberg
5-Dumba
6-Trouba
7-Grigorenko

Or perhaps:

4-Forsberg
5-Trouba
6-Grigorenko
7-Dumba

If Edmonton selects Murray and Montreal goes with Galchenyuk, things can get very interesting very quickly.
I don't think we'll see Grigorenko drop just because he's so talented, but Dumba may fall because people don't think it'll translate over to the NHL. I think NYI are going to go defense or maybe even Grigorenko if he drops to #4. I'm not sure it's a lock that the Oilers don't take Grigorenko, and we could see the Habs taking Galchenyuk. That would give Murray to the Isles at #4, but I don't think Grigorenko, Yakupov, Murray, or Galchenyuk will be available at our pick.

We'll be looking at Trouba, Dumba, Reinhart, Rielly, Ceci, Maata, Forsberg, and Faksa range. That's so many different ways we can go. Dumba scares me a lot, but the high end reward could be worth it.

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04-09-2012, 11:21 AM
  #911
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Originally Posted by Generic User View Post
Trouba vs Reinhart.. They seem so similar. And I've seen people on each side of the fence saying one has the higher upside. Wonder if Reinhart's bloodlines will give him an edge. Either way, I just hope Fletcher doesn't settle on whoever he picks.

Brodin and Granlund were near the top of his list. If the players at the top of his list are gone I'd rather him trade back rather than make a pick for the sake of making one.
The trouble with trading back is, if you don't trade back, you get the guy at the top of the list now. Unless that would have been seen as "a reach," by definition you're going to get a guy the team has a lesser opinion of. So really, you're weighing the value of an additional pick against the loss in value from that player you traded back from. If you have a barren prospect pool, moving back means you get to pick up more options for restocking. That makes the value of the extra pick rather high. However, if you're brimming with good prospects, you don't get much value from the extra pick.

Basically, I'd expect Fletcher to try move back only if he feels there is little difference between the players remaining on his draft board, or he feels absolutely certain no one is going to swoop in and select all the top guys remaining on the list. Of course, there's always the option to trade the pick for a player, but I don't expect anyone to offer fair enough value for that pick.

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04-09-2012, 11:24 AM
  #912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnesota View Post
Couldn't be farther from the truth, sir!

Trouba has more physicality and offensive element to his game. Reinhart is a more reliable, shut-down type. He hasn't fully developed a physical edge to his game yet. Reinhart is further along in his development, and is looking like the safer pick. Trouba has a much higher ceiling because he hasn't even attended college yet. He's somewhat unpredictable.
Interesting.. I just finished reading that both of them are developing into very capable two-way defenders with more of offensive edge than defensive ones with bursts of physicality now and again.

Well, good to know. The safer pick never has the higher ceiling- why God?

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04-09-2012, 11:26 AM
  #913
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnwildgophers View Post
We'll be looking at Trouba, Dumba, Reinhart, Rielly, Ceci, Maata, Forsberg, and Faksa range. That's so many different ways we can go. Dumba scares me a lot, but the high end reward could be worth it.
I agree with your feelings on Dumba. With his size, I don't see how he'll be able to continue playing his physical style at the NHL level.

I know the easy argument is Kronwall or Subban, but I don't see Dumba following the same path.

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04-09-2012, 11:27 AM
  #914
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Originally Posted by Minnesota View Post
Couldn't be farther from the truth, sir!

Trouba has more physicality and offensive element to his game. Reinhart is a more reliable, shut-down type. He hasn't fully developed a physical edge to his game yet. Reinhart is further along in his development, and is looking like the safer pick. Trouba has a much higher ceiling because he hasn't even attended college yet. He's somewhat unpredictable.
I'd disagree with your comparison. Reinhart has the higher ceiling because he has the complete package but hasn't put it together. If Reinhart were able to get everything settled and develop properly, he'd be by far the best defenseman in this draft. However, much like our Justin Falk, he just doesn't have that consistent mean streak. He's shown flashes of the offensive game, but isn't going to be Weber any time soon. Everything is there for the taking, he just needs to grab it, but he has a lot of learning to reach that point.

Trouba, however, is a little more distant from the NHL, but he's far more likely to actually reach his ceiling. He's a long way out because we've never seen what he can do against real quality competition, but he seems to be in the right place with his game. Maybe he misses the NHL entirely, but I would give him a better chance of becoming a solid top 4 defenseman than I would give Reinhart.

Reinhart's all but guaranteed to bottom out at as a 6/7 defenseman, but he has a larger jump to get to be even a 3/4 guy than Trouba has from his floor of career AHL guy to that same 3/4 level.

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04-09-2012, 11:29 AM
  #915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
It's sounding more and more like Montreal's draft board goes Yakupov-Galchenyuk-huge space-everyone else.

With that in mind, unless something crazy happens (like new GM demanding Grigorenko be the draft pick) the top 3 (barring lotto changes) will likely be:

1-Yakupov
2-Murray
3-Galchenyuk

So, with NYI @ 4 likely to go wing or defense, it'll be interesting to see how things turn out. Maybe Burke doesn't like Grigorenko (has he ever drafted a Russian?) and goes off the board. We could end up seeing:

4-Dumba
5-Rielly
6-Forsberg (yes, I'm being ridiculous at this point)
7-Grigorenko

Another possibility being:

4-Forsberg
5-Dumba
6-Trouba
7-Grigorenko

Or perhaps:

4-Forsberg
5-Trouba
6-Grigorenko
7-Dumba

If Edmonton selects Murray and Montreal goes with Galchenyuk, things can get very interesting very quickly.
Isn't Roy rumored to be Montreal's new GM?

Apparently he's in love with Grigs, and Edmonton is finally getting on track to pick a defender, as obvious as it should be, fans still want another center ( ). Islanders fans seem to think that Trouba/Dumba is their guy, and they will more than likely go after a defender rather than any offensive guy. Toronto wants a #1 center and do not need help on the back-end. Galchenyuk for them, I'd imagine. Possibly Forsberg, but I doubt it. Anaheim wants a #2 center, they might might take Faksa if given the opportunity, but if they lose out on Gal then I'd guess they take a defender.

And we're sitting there picking up the scraps. Unless we win the lottery.


1. CBJ - Yakupov
2. EDM - Murray
3. MON - Grigorenko
4. NYI - Dumba/Trouba
5. TOR - Galchenyuk/Forsberg
6. ANA - Galchenyuk/Faksa/Trouba
7. MIN - the guy no one wants

Or, we could somehow have what you said happen and Galchenyuk is taken by Montreal, ****ing over everyone. Burke will more than likely not take a Russian, so Grigorenko would not be a Leaf. Forsberg/Faksa would go to Toronto, IMO. Anaheim would then take the defender that New York does not take, leaving us to take Grigorenko. UNTIL Washington offers the #11(Colorado) + #whatever(Washington) + rights to Semin to take Grigorenko.

At #11, we would then take Teuvo, with the other first we could take one of the Swedish defenders in Lindholm or Bystrom, and we would have Semin possibly coming in. I don't really want him, but he could potentially be a great player. Trade his rights again for a 2013 2nd to a contending team.

1. Yakupov
2. Murray
3. Galchenyuk
4. Trouba/Dumba
5. Forsberg
6. Trouba/Dumba
7. WAS - Grigorenko
8. CAR - Faksa
9. WPG - Gaunce
10. TB - Ceci
11. MIN - Teravainen

/pipedream

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04-09-2012, 11:30 AM
  #916
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The trouble with trading back is, if you don't trade back, you get the guy at the top of the list now. Unless that would have been seen as "a reach," by definition you're going to get a guy the team has a lesser opinion of. So really, you're weighing the value of an additional pick against the loss in value from that player you traded back from. If you have a barren prospect pool, moving back means you get to pick up more options for restocking. That makes the value of the extra pick rather high. However, if you're brimming with good prospects, you don't get much value from the extra pick.

Basically, I'd expect Fletcher to try move back only if he feels there is little difference between the players remaining on his draft board, or he feels absolutely certain no one is going to swoop in and select all the top guys remaining on the list. Of course, there's always the option to trade the pick for a player, but I don't expect anyone to offer fair enough value for that pick.
Well, I just remember from Becoming Wild they were saying that they were going to get the guy they wanted at #10, and it was good that they didn't move up to get him. Also, I remember the Blues offered us like 2 picks in the 30-40 range for the #28 and they didn't end up taking it because they wanted to see who was there at #28. I don't think we'll see a trade back, it doesn't make sense at this point.

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04-09-2012, 11:30 AM
  #917
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However, much like our Justin Falk, he just doesn't have that consistent mean streak.
That's enough to make me balk at picking him. I hate consistency concerns.

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04-09-2012, 11:31 AM
  #918
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Well, I just remember from Becoming Wild they were saying that they were going to get the guy they wanted at #10, and it was good that they didn't move up to get him. Also, I remember the Blues offered us like 2 picks in the 30-40 range for the #28 and they didn't end up taking it because they wanted to see who was there at #28. I don't think we'll see a trade back, it doesn't make sense at this point.
42 and 46 IIRC. And Fletcher and Flahr were considering it. Said something like "That might be too far back.. So do you just wanna see who's on the board at #28 and then make the decision?" Had Phillips not been there, they just might've taken that deal.

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04-09-2012, 11:32 AM
  #919
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I don't think we'll see Grigorenko drop just because he's so talented, but Dumba may fall because people don't think it'll translate over to the NHL. I think NYI are going to go defense or maybe even Grigorenko if he drops to #4. I'm not sure it's a lock that the Oilers don't take Grigorenko, and we could see the Habs taking Galchenyuk. That would give Murray to the Isles at #4, but I don't think Grigorenko, Yakupov, Murray, or Galchenyuk will be available at our pick.

We'll be looking at Trouba, Dumba, Reinhart, Rielly, Ceci, Maata, Forsberg, and Faksa range. That's so many different ways we can go. Dumba scares me a lot, but the high end reward could be worth it.
I can't see any way that the Islanders will select a (natural) center. It's always possible, but they have Tavares, and they're not going to give up on Strome at this point. Their blue line is worse than ours and they don't have any real wingers to pair up with Tavares. I don't see them grabbing a forward not named Yakupov or Forsberg.

Edmonton could grab Galchenyuk or Forsberg, which would blow a lot of things out of the water. They could go with Dumba too, however, it seems they're rather high on Murray, and it's expected they'd go that route. You never know on draft day (Rick Nash for 2nd overall so Columbus can keep Gally and Yaks together?) but this seems to be a reasonable direction at this point.

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04-09-2012, 11:32 AM
  #920
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I think Edmonton absolutely takes another forward just for the hell of it. Murray still seems like a guy who's going to slide, to me anyway.

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04-09-2012, 11:34 AM
  #921
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I think Edmonton absolutely takes another forward just for the hell of it. Murray still seems like a guy who's going to slide, to me anyway.
They're going to pick Galchenuk just to piss everybody off.

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04-09-2012, 11:38 AM
  #922
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All I know, is that I always get my heart set on one player. Nino last year, don't remember who the year before, and every year we either take someone else, or they're not falling to where we pick. So far, I can't say that I've been disappointed with who we've taken instead. I'm sure this trend will continue. I am okay with it. For the record I'm rooting heavily for Galyenchuk.

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04-09-2012, 11:38 AM
  #923
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Isn't Roy rumored to be Montreal's new GM?

Apparently he's in love with Grigs, and Edmonton is finally getting on track to pick a defender, as obvious as it should be, fans still want another center ( ). Islanders fans seem to think that Trouba/Dumba is their guy, and they will more than likely go after a defender rather than any offensive guy. Toronto wants a #1 center and do not need help on the back-end. Galchenyuk for them, I'd imagine. Possibly Forsberg, but I doubt it. Anaheim wants a #2 center, they might might take Faksa if given the opportunity, but if they lose out on Gal then I'd guess they take a defender.
Burke is always a shifty one. He rarely does what he's expected to do. Toronto does need a #1C, but that doesn't mean he'll grab the best center available. Just think, both Forsberg and Trouba seem like "Burke kind of guys" even if they don't seem to be the best fit for his team.

As for Montreal, Roy could become the new GM, but who really makes the selection in their administration? Is it Roy (e.g. Fletcher) or Timmins (e.g. Flahr)? Timmins is apparently crazy about Galchenyuk, and really really doesn't care for Grigorenko. It seems relatively likely that they'd pick one of those two no matter what though.

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04-09-2012, 11:40 AM
  #924
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Very important thing to note: with the Wild finishing 7th, we can still jump ahead of Montreal if we win the lottery. Assuming Edmonton goes defense, that guarantees us our pick of forwards if we so choose.

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04-09-2012, 11:42 AM
  #925
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I can't see any way that the Islanders will select a (natural) center. It's always possible, but they have Tavares, and they're not going to give up on Strome at this point. Their blue line is worse than ours and they don't have any real wingers to pair up with Tavares. I don't see them grabbing a forward not named Yakupov or Forsberg.

Edmonton could grab Galchenyuk or Forsberg, which would blow a lot of things out of the water. They could go with Dumba too, however, it seems they're rather high on Murray, and it's expected they'd go that route. You never know on draft day (Rick Nash for 2nd overall so Columbus can keep Gally and Yaks together?) but this seems to be a reasonable direction at this point.
I agree with you on the Islanders take, but I'm just saying that it's possible they could fall in love with him and take him because he does have some huge skills. I still think the Oilers take Grigorenko, the Habs go Galchenyuk, and then Murray goes to the Isles at #4.

I just get this feeling that the Oilers are going to go for a forward rather than Murray. We'll see a guy rise at the draft, and a guy fall. I want to say it's going to be Grigorenko, but I just think he's too talented for someone not to pick him up within the top 5.

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