Stats show he's gotten better as of late - his save percentage is up and just watching him, he's making confident moves. Then again, this just might be the Schultz effect.Competent defending can make good goalies look elite - see Bryzgalov (a year ago), Smith, Elliot, Halak...
You add a top-group dman (solid in his own end, good at puck moving) and wait for Whitney to get his game back by opening night? Call me crazy, but Ryan "Mark Howe" Murray and a healthy Whitney could make Dubnyk look fantastic.
Let's be quite honest - is there another goalie in the league, free agent or not, who you'd rather have as a starter that could be got for a reasonable price? IMO, I'll take Dubynk over Bernier, a 7-million dollar Vokoun, or Brent Johnson/Josh Harding.
I'd be much happier if he stopped doing that crazy Markannen-style poke check.
I agree. Dmen and goalies need each other to work well to get the synergy of playing as one. Everyone knows that the Oilers defense has been playing poorly and inconsistently either due to injuries, poor plays and or inexperience. As a result, Dubnyk did not get a fair chance to play well in front of an experience dmen corp. The poor work of the dmen further exacerbate the situation for Dubnyk.
Too early to judge if he is a playoff goalie or not. Given his great numbers lately as well as his poise, he is still youmg and will develop better. I have no doubt he will be fine in the playoffs.
Fair enough, he hasnt had a chance to show his stuff in the playoffs.... but he also hasnt been nearly good enough to give the oilers a chance to get to the playoffs. The team isnt great, but he has been a very large part of that lack of greatness.
His regular season mediocrity makes be worry about him playing 7 games in 2 weeks against the best teams in the league.
Fair enough, he hasnt had a chance to show his stuff in the playoffs.... but he also hasnt been nearly good enough to give the oilers a chance to get to the playoffs. The team isnt great, but he has been a very large part of that lack of greatness.
His regular season mediocrity makes be worry about him playing 7 games in 2 weeks against the best teams in the league.
Over the years of watching other young goalies developed into solid tenders, they all face alot of inconsistencies during their development. Some nights they seemed to be ready to take on the starter role and some nights they are showing their inexperience. Dubnyk is fitting that trend and is no different. It doesn't help his progress when 2/3 of our dmen have played poorly in front of him. Not only is he trying to develop but he is doing it without much help in front of him. He obviously has solid fundamentals, poised, quickness for a huge goalie and very coachable and likable guy. The Oilers staff have faith in this guy and they are willing to bring him along slowly. We just have to be patient and stay the course.
Over the years of watching other young goalies developed into solid tenders, they all face alot of inconsistencies during their development. Some nights they seemed to be ready to take on the starter role and some nights they are showing their inexperience. Dubnyk is fitting that trend and is no different. It doesn't help his progress when 2/3 of our dmen have played poorly in front of him. Not only is he trying to develop but he is doing it without much help in front of him. He obviously has solid fundamentals, poised, quickness for a huge goalie and very coachable and likable guy. The Oilers staff have faith in this guy and they are willing to bring him along slowly. We just have to be patient and stay the course.
Agreed, I'm not thrilled with Duby or anything but it would be crazy to give up him right now. He does seem to have a great attitude, not only in being coachable and likeable but he can battle as well. There was a game a couple of weeks ago where he let in a softy. Renney said in postgame that Duby said "Get to the shootout and we will win.", and he did. Also that last game in Florida, he looked like he was going to stop anything in the 3rd period and shootout. As much as a goalie can battle, Duby looks like he has it.
There are some technical aspects of his game that he needs to improve no doubt. Like others have pointed out, he gets out of position sometimes and he can't handle the puck very well. I'm willing to wait a bit for him, I'd rather wait then give up some good assets in a trade for another goalie.
Agreed, I'm not thrilled with Duby or anything but it would be crazy to give up him right now. He does seem to have a great attitude, not only in being coachable and likeable but he can battle as well. There was a game a couple of weeks ago where he let in a softy. Renney said in postgame that Duby said "Get to the shootout and we will win.", and he did. Also that last game in Florida, he looked like he was going to stop anything in the 3rd period and shootout. As much as a goalie can battle, Duby looks like he has it.There are some technical aspects of his game that he needs to improve no doubt. Like others have pointed out, he gets out of position sometimes and he can't handle the puck very well. I'm willing to wait a bit for him, I'd rather wait then give up some good assets in a trade for another goalie.
Nice to read that this likeable guy is very competitive and growing his confidence. In the last 6-8 games, he is defintely gaining confidence. With confidence, players have known to do incredible things.
Over the years of watching other young goalies developed into solid tenders, they all face alot of inconsistencies during their development. Some nights they seemed to be ready to take on the starter role and some nights they are showing their inexperience. Dubnyk is fitting that trend and is no different. It doesn't help his progress when 2/3 of our dmen have played poorly in front of him. Not only is he trying to develop but he is doing it without much help in front of him. He obviously has solid fundamentals, poised, quickness for a huge goalie and very coachable and likable guy. The Oilers staff have faith in this guy and they are willing to bring him along slowly. We just have to be patient and stay the course.
The thing with goaltenders is, even in their prime, they can be inconsistant from season to season. You'll have a season when you're a vezna candidate, and follow it with one where you are around 15-20 in the league.
The thing you need to look for in goaltenders is who is MORE consistantly good. You cant get caught up in a goalies recent hot streak and say "You know he's really showing what he can be". Pretty much EVERY goalie in this league has had a stretch where you could say he looks like a GOOD number 1. Thats not the point though... you need to look at goalies who USUALY look like a good number 1.
Like I said, I agree that the Oilers defense is a tough one to develope behind, but there has been every bit the same number of goalies where it is PAINFULLY obvious that Dubnyk is the cause, and that he is making our defense look even worse than they already are.
Obviously, with goalies, at any given time, they could just flip the switch into a number 1 role. Im not saying Dubnyk wont... im saying he's given me no reason to think he will. DONT get caught up in a string of good games.
All the doom and gloom aside, an argument can be made that he has improved his game slightly over the last calander year. Is it enough to keep him around, i think so.. i am only responding to the fact that people say Dubnyk ISNT a number 1 goalie, which I think is false. I am also stating that being a number 1 goalie isnt enough in the NHL... you want a top 15 guy to make a push... not a top 30 guy.
I agree. Dmen and goalies need each other to work well to get the synergy of playing as one. Everyone knows that the Oilers defense has been playing poorly and inconsistently either due to injuries, poor plays and or inexperience. As a result, Dubnyk did not get a fair chance to play well in front of an experience dmen corp. The poor work of the dmen further exacerbate the situation for Dubnyk.
Exactly, does anybody think Corey Schnieder has a .934 sv% in Edmonton? I certainly don't. In his final AHL season it was .919, in his first NHL season behind an elite defensive group it was .924, quite the improvement for a guy moving up a level. Personally i think defense has a lot to do with it, and IMO Dubnyk has looked good behind what little we have.
Fair enough, he hasnt had a chance to show his stuff in the playoffs.... but he also hasnt been nearly good enough to give the oilers a chance to get to the playoffs. The team isnt great, but he has been a very large part of that lack of greatness.
His regular season mediocrity makes be worry about him playing 7 games in 2 weeks against the best teams in the league.
His .500 record over the past two seasons is a far cry better than the Oilers' overall record. Given he's played roughly 40 games each season, it's pretty hard to blame that on small sample size or somehow getting 40 "easy" games each season, when the team is the underdog virtually every game.
To put it another way, it appears that the Oilers would be significantly closer to the playoffs if they got Dubnyk-level goaltending for 82 games. And we know quite well that there are plenty of other deficiencies on the team - if he compiles a .500 record on a mediocre team, how about behind a good team? On top of that, he's still young for a goaltender, a position that's notoriously difficult to project and tends to develop late.
I don't think we'll really know what we have in Dubnyk until 3 things happen:
1. he gets a full season as starter, not sharing the load. Next season is the perfect season to give this a try, since there's no readily available goaltender that's going to step in and make the team a Cup contender.
2. he gets a chance to play behind improved defensive and overall team play.
3. he's given a bit more time to develop.
Particularly with item number 1, it's kind of ridiculous to blame Dubnyk for the Oilers not being a playoff team, when the team's record over two seasons now is far, far worse when he's not in the net.
Here's where I am on Dubnyk, and I hope the team takes this stance as well.
If he keeps playing at this level for the rest of the season, anoint him the #1 goaltender going into the offseason and next year. Let him go through Camp and the start of the season as the #1 guy. Then if he can't find the consistency required from a #1 tender say over the 1st month +, pull the pin on the situation an go in a different direction.
I realize that seems harsh, but he's got to put up or shut up now, and doing what I suggested would accomplish just that.
I don't know. DD has done this in the past. Plays strong for a bunch of games down the stretch and gets my hopes up that we have something. At this point you almost have to re-sign him as there isn't a whole lot out there that is a guarantee better goalie.
The other issue is what the heck do you do when you strike out with the Schneider/Bernier types, can't sign a UFA and then are left with Bulin and nothing else?
Tough to know. He has played some very good games for us this year. He has to eliminate the softies he lets in. One thing I am not in favor of is going after one of these popular backup tenders and paying a big price to do so.
Here's where I am on Dubnyk, and I hope the team takes this stance as well.
If he keeps playing at this level for the rest of the season, anoint him the #1 goaltender going into the offseason and next year. Let him go through Camp and the start of the season as the #1 guy. Then if he can't find the consistency required from a #1 tender say over the 1st month +, pull the pin on the situation an go in a different direction.
I realize that seems harsh, but he's got to put up or shut up now, and doing what I suggested would accomplish just that.
I don't think it's harsh, it's the truth. The biggest problem is what direction do you going during the year?
Exactly, does anybody think Corey Schnieder has a .934 sv% in Edmonton? I certainly don't. In his final AHL season it was .919, in his first NHL season behind an elite defensive group it was .924, quite the improvement for a guy moving up a level. Personally i think defense has a lot to do with it, and IMO Dubnyk has looked good behind what little we have.
Dubnyk has had an issue with giving up soft goals...that has virtually nothing to do with the defence.
Its all on him.
He needs to be consistent for at least 30 games when the games mean something.
This is a tough call because if the Oilers do not go out and sign a #1 goalie then they are putting all their eggs in the Dubnyk basket.
He hasn't shown the consistency required of a #1 goalie up to this point so its a risk. Will he turn the corner...who knows.
Tambo's history suggests that he will go with Dubnyk and hope for the best.
well, he has definitely had a decent final 3rd or the season. He has improved, and will improve more. His peak is yet to come. the question is how high? will he improve enough to out-play a semi-final opponent? who knows.
Keep in mind that when the Oil are good enough to play into May, they will be because of their strong offense. Shutout goaltending may not be required; decent goaltending may be enough.
in any event, his play of late makes me confident that he is probably as good as any goalie that might be available.
Dubnyk has had an issue with giving up soft goals...that has virtually nothing to do with the defence.
He needs to be consistent for at least 30 games when the games mean something.
Some of the goals people on here call soft is ridiculous (Like the blues game, Andy McDonald in the slot isn't a "softie"). Every goalie lets in "softies", part of the development of a young goalie is eliminating goals like that and getting better. Dubnyk is developing still, and i say that because he never really stopped. This is a guy getting better year in year out. Goalie development is a fickle thing but until i see signs of regression i won't think its wise to move him. He's mature in terms of his mentality, when he does let in a soft goal he doesn't seem to get rattled.
Lets look at the top young goalies their ages, save percentage, position on the depth chart, quality of team, and perhaps other key info.
Schnieder -- 26, .934, Backup - On a top team, possibly easier starts
Rask ------- 25, .929, Backup - On a top team, possibly easier starts
Halak ------ 26, .927, Starter - On a top team, backups numbers are unreal
Quick ------ 26, .926, Starter - Good team, top defence
Howard ---- 27, .920, Starter - Very good team
Fleury ----- 27, .918, Starter - On a top team
Harding ---- 27, .918, Backup - Poor team, possibly easier starts
Price ------- 24, .917, Starter - Poor team
Enroth ------ 23, .916, Backup - Average team, possibly easier starts Dubnyk ---- 25, .914, Co-Starter - Poor team, poor defence
Varlamov --- 23, .913, Starter - Average team, had very high value last offseason
Bishop ------ 25, .912, Backup - Only 9 games, returned a 2nd, sv% last year .899
Bernier ------ 23, .911, Backup - See Quick, Only 15 games, sv% last year .913
Pavelec ----- 24, .909, Starter - Average team
Crawford ---- 27, .902, Starter - Very good team
Reimer ------ 24, .900, Co-Starter - Poor team
Neuvirth ---- 24, .900, Backup - Average team
Bobrovsky -- 23, .899, Backup - Very good team
Mason ------ 23, .895, Starter - Worst team, former Calder winner
We can see the best 6 goaltenders in this comp. are all on top teams with excellent defence, or in Quicks case behind a top defence. If you consider age, team, and responsibility it sure looks like Dubnyk is a very solid young goalie.
rfa next year they be smart to lock him up cheap for say 3 million a year for 5 years he is a #1 they dont call him big easy for nothing.
your need to be calm in net thats what he is.
you're not serious, are you?
we have decent prospects in the system and I can't a see 5 year contract for someone so wildly inconsistant who at best has shown he would be an adequate career back-up.
he's not a starter. can he be, maybe.
I agree with those that said Khabi not only turned out to be a mistake as a starter but not a good mentor for a young guy.
Some of the goals people on here call soft is ridiculous (Like the blues game, Andy McDonald in the slot isn't a "softie"). Every goalie lets in "softies", part of the development of a young goalie is eliminating goals like that and getting better. Dubnyk is developing still, and i say that because he never really stopped. This is a guy getting better year in year out. Goalie development is a fickle thing but until i see signs of regression i won't think its wise to move him. He's mature in terms of his mentality, when he does let in a soft goal he doesn't seem to get rattled.
no offense, but you don't consider his play in the first 70 Oiler games of this year a regression? I'd like you to explain why not.
considering how he played the last half of last year, and how he has played until recently, I didn't see any forward development. I thought he took a step back and only now is as playing as good as he was last year. not better, but as good.
Some of the goals people on here call soft is ridiculous (Like the blues game, Andy McDonald in the slot isn't a "softie"). Every goalie lets in "softies", part of the development of a young goalie is eliminating goals like that and getting better. Dubnyk is developing still, and i say that because he never really stopped. This is a guy getting better year in year out. Goalie development is a fickle thing but until i see signs of regression i won't think its wise to move him. He's mature in terms of his mentality, when he does let in a soft goal he doesn't seem to get rattled.
Lets look at the top young goalies their ages, save percentage, position on the depth chart, quality of team, and perhaps other key info.
Schnieder -- 26, .934, Backup - On a top team, possibly easier starts
Rask ------- 25, .929, Backup - On a top team, possibly easier starts
Halak ------ 26, .927, Starter - On a top team, backups numbers are unreal
Quick ------ 26, .926, Starter - Good team, top defence
Howard ---- 27, .920, Starter - Very good team
Fleury ----- 27, .918, Starter - On a top team
Harding ---- 27, .918, Backup - Poor team, possibly easier starts
Price ------- 24, .917, Starter - Poor team
Enroth ------ 23, .916, Backup - Average team, possibly easier starts Dubnyk ---- 25, .914, Co-Starter - Poor team, poor defence
Varlamov --- 23, .913, Starter - Average team, had very high value last offseason
Bishop ------ 25, .912, Backup - Only 9 games, returned a 2nd, sv% last year .899
Bernier ------ 23, .911, Backup - See Quick, Only 15 games, sv% last year .913
Pavelec ----- 24, .909, Starter - Average team
Crawford ---- 27, .902, Starter - Very good team
Reimer ------ 24, .900, Co-Starter - Poor team
Neuvirth ---- 24, .900, Backup - Average team
Bobrovsky -- 23, .899, Backup - Very good team
Mason ------ 23, .895, Starter - Worst team, former Calder winner
We can see the best 6 goaltenders in this comp. are all on top teams with excellent defence, or in Quicks case behind a top defence. If you consider age, team, and responsibility it sure looks like Dubnyk is a very solid young goalie.
I am not speaking for anyone else so it doesn't matter to me what other posters claim. It becomes pretty clear which goals he should have stopped especially when Dubnyk himself talks about it.
Dubnyk was giving up a minimum of 1 bad goal per game for long stretches this season. He seems to have turned that around for now playing these meaningless games...the big question is will it continue when the games have meaning.
We won't know until next season.
As for your stats....I agree that SP% is the best stat to gauge the ability of a goaltender.
The missing piece is games played. That provides some additional context.
no offense, but you don't consider his play in the first 70 Oiler games of this year a regression? I'd like you to explain why not.
considering how he played the last half of last year, and how he has played until recently, I didn't see any forward development. I thought he took a step back and only now is as playing as good as he was last year. not better, but as good.
Progress can move rather slowly (ask Smid, Gagner), but it doesn't mean it isn't happening, and i don't see a regression. He's looked good to me and appears more comfortable in the starters role, i call that progress.
