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Math playoff thread: Lost to Hurricanes 3-0, Mathematically Eliminated from Playoffs.

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Old
01-20-2012, 09:41 AM
  #1
robdicks
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Math playoff thread: Lost to Hurricanes 3-0, Mathematically Eliminated from Playoffs.

Every year someone posts a link to Club Sports Stats on a statistical probability distribution of the Leafs making the playoffs. Many have said that you can't use math to predict a team's playoff chances, but I tend to disagree. Statistical analysis judges trends and there are certainly trends in sports. Anyways love it or hate it the Leafs (even though they are currently in 9th) have a 62% chance of making it after their win against Minnesota last night. Some may wonder why we are in 9th and still have over 50% chance, but that is because this simulation weights home games, previous records, and schedule in it's prediction.

For those that like this http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...t/Toronto.html

As of Mar 20th., Lost to NY Islanders 2-5, playoff odds down 0.4 to 0.1%


Last edited by LeeIs: 03-27-2012 at 09:29 PM.
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Old
01-20-2012, 09:43 AM
  #2
Yosho
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Cool site!

Leafs need a STRONG finish.

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Old
01-20-2012, 09:44 AM
  #3
Kyle J
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It's simple, if they get 92 points it's a lock for playoffs.. They need 21 more wins for that. They need to 21-15 in the last 36 games. Done. Close thread.

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Old
01-20-2012, 09:56 AM
  #4
blue82
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if the site acknowledged trends then the leafs would have a 20% chance of making the playoffs, they have been a consistent .500 team since late october, and they need to go 6 games over or .583 the rest of the way..gonna be difficult

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Old
01-20-2012, 09:57 AM
  #5
blasted_Sabre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle J View Post
It's simple, if they get 92 points it's a lock for playoffs.. They need 21 more wins for that. They need to 21-15 in the last 36 games. Done. Close thread.
You know, people like to DISCUSS things on a DISCUSSION board, especially things that are continually changing

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Old
01-20-2012, 10:06 AM
  #6
paulster2626
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You started this one ALREADY?!! Now you have to update the title after every game with the percentage! Sucker!

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Old
01-20-2012, 10:08 AM
  #7
paulster2626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle J View Post
It's simple, if they get 92 points it's a lock for playoffs.. They need 21 more wins for that. They need to 21-15 in the last 36 games. Done. Close thread.
Didn't check out the link to the site in the thread you think is stupid, did you?

92 points is only an 84% chance - YOU LOSE!

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Old
01-20-2012, 10:23 AM
  #8
egd27
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19-12-5 gets them 94 points. Doable but not a lock by any stretch.

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Old
01-20-2012, 10:42 AM
  #9
dredeye
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I'm not sure how the leafs have a greater than 60% chance of getting in when they are on the outside looking in. Shouldn't they be 50/50 at best?

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Old
01-20-2012, 10:44 AM
  #10
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Let's just hope the wheels fall of the Sens and Panthers wagon and the Leafs push their way in.

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Old
01-20-2012, 10:57 AM
  #11
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The Leafs usually always go into beast mode after the all-star game

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Old
01-20-2012, 11:05 AM
  #12
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I'll add in this site I've been checking the last few years.
Link can be added to the OP along with any others we find.
It'll make it easier to check this thread for updates.

http://zorak.best.vwh.net/nhl/

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Old
01-20-2012, 11:22 AM
  #13
Leafsman
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I don't know about 62% chance to get in but I don't feel it's too far off.

The way I look at it is it is going to be up and down between 9th and a playoff spot as there is serious competition for the last spot or two.

Whoever I am helpful in that the schedule really allows the Leafs to bury the teams behind them. The leafs are being chased by Winnipeg, Buffalo, NYI and Montreal which besides Winnipeg there is already a small point cushion there. With 2 games left against buffalo, 3 against NYI, 4 against Montreal there is opportunity to take them out of the equation.

The real danger I feel is Winnipeg, there is only 1 game left against them and they seem to be posing a real risk.

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01-20-2012, 11:41 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robdicks View Post
Every year someone posts a link to Club Sports Stats on a statistical probability distribution of the Leafs making the playoffs.
They haven't because it is 62%, if it was 20% certain people would have been falling all over themselves to post this stat.

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01-20-2012, 11:42 AM
  #15
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In reality, all we need is New Jersey, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, or Washington to enter a massive slump, and we should have no problem passing them. I'm sure at least one of those teams (or the Leafs) will enter a large slump, and drop.

Winnipeg is the only team on our tail, so really, there's not too steep of competition.

With regard to that site, there is also a 50/50 option that gives statistics based on if every game and chance of a team winning is 50/50 rather than how it weights upcoming games and teams schedules to calculate winning.

We are 5-2-0 at home this year so far. Not too shabby, and we've only played once on the Road (and lost).

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Old
01-20-2012, 11:49 AM
  #16
leafspyinottawa
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as of Jan 20/12 we have 36 games left and need at least 43 more points. To get it we need to go (at least):
21-14-1
20-13-3
19-12-5
18-11-7
17-10-9
16-9-11
15-8-13
14-7-15
13-6-17
12-5-19
11-4-21
10-3-23
9-2-25
8-1-27
7-0-29

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Old
01-20-2012, 12:19 PM
  #17
Kessely Snipes
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The way I see it, the Leafs beat the panthers to get in. Buffalo shouldn't catch up the way they have been playing, I don't think Winnipeg has it in the long run (lets not forget, they are still the Thrashers). This is assuming the Leafs don't have an epic collapse.

I just don't see Florida winning the division over Washington.

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Old
01-20-2012, 12:20 PM
  #18
Dutch77
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I can't see any of the top 7 teams falling out, barring injury. It comes down to the Leafs and Panthers.

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Old
01-20-2012, 12:31 PM
  #19
Leafsman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle J View Post
It's simple, if they get 92 points it's a lock for playoffs.. They need 21 more wins for that. They need to 21-15 in the last 36 games. Done. Close thread.
NO! It is not a lock!!! Over 92 pts then it becomes more of a lock but still by no means guaranteed!

They need minimum 20-15-1 to get 92. (I believe, my math is not all that great). Which is not all that unreasonable.

Out of the remaining games. The Leafs play:

Top 10 teams - 13 times
Mid - 10 - 8 times
Bottom 10 - 15 times



I'm guessing:

4-6-3 Top 10 (11 pts)
4-3-1 Mid (9 pts)
9-3-3 bottom (21 pts)

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Old
01-20-2012, 12:45 PM
  #20
dredeye
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Originally Posted by IronMan77 View Post
I can't see any of the top 7 teams falling out, barring injury. It comes down to the Leafs and Panthers.
Not saying the top 7 are a lock but the Panthers are the one team most likely to fall out of the run. Just take a look at how many points they have for losing games. They aren't a good pressure team. Teams have figured out they just need to shut down the Versteeg line and there chances are really good of winning. Theodore being hurt doesn't do them much good either.

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Old
01-20-2012, 12:46 PM
  #21
Nizdizzle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
I'm not sure how the leafs have a greater than 60% chance of getting in when they are on the outside looking in. Shouldn't they be 50/50 at best?
The default setting assumes that each team will have a heavily weighted chance at beating teams lower than them in the standing, then simulates in many, many times and gives the % of times for each outcome. The Leafs have an easier schedule to finish out the year, with lots of games against teams lower than them in the schedule. Thats why its >60% chance right now. In the top left you can change the simulation to each game having a 50/50 for each team to win if you'd prefer that.

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Old
01-20-2012, 12:49 PM
  #22
MajorityRules
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IronMan77 View Post
I can't see any of the top 7 teams falling out, barring injury. It comes down to the Leafs and Panthers.
Really?

Just a few weeks ago Washington was out of the playoffs and it looked like they might miss them altogether.
Florida was in 3rd after a hot start and are now in danger of missing the playoffs.
Pittsburgh was in first early in the season and then were flirting with falling out of the playoff mix.
Ottawa was a basically a .500 team until January hit where they've only lost 1 game so far this month.

Besides injuries there are hot streaks and cold streaks and so far beyond Boston and NYR and maybe Philly, nobody has shown any type of consistency to confidently say the top 7 are sure things.

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Old
01-20-2012, 01:41 PM
  #23
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19-12-5 looks good, and possible.

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Old
01-20-2012, 02:14 PM
  #24
Nizdizzle
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We just need to string some wins together in the next bunch of games. A really, really easy schedule. If we miss the playoffs, its because we failed to get wins against teams we should be winning against.

Montreal, NYI, NYI, Pittsburgh... We should be able to get at least three wins if we play smart, disciplined hockey and Gust/Reims don't *$#@ the bed.

*knock on wood*

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Old
01-20-2012, 02:26 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by Nathan311 View Post
We just need to string some wins together in the next bunch of games. A really, really easy schedule. If we miss the playoffs, its because we failed to get wins against teams we should be winning against.

Montreal, NYI, NYI, Pittsburgh... We should be able to get at least three wins if we play smart, disciplined hockey and Gust/Reims don't *$#@ the bed.

*knock on wood*
That is the key.

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