Tough call. The question is whether Weber's much better defensive play can overcome Karlsson's big lead in offence. I think it almost comes down to a coin flip but I think that Karlsson may take it. The last two defencemen to achieve 80 points at his age are in the Hall of Fame. He's had a pretty amazing season offensively compared to the competition and has improved his defence enough to not just be considered an offensive defenceman.
Looking at Karlsson's numbers in a historical sense...
Currently Erik Karlsson has scored 155% more points than the 2nd place defenseman. Here's a look at all years when the leading Dman scored 145% or more of 2nd place in NHL history...
Year
Player
% of #2
Norris
1971
Bobby Orr
273
Won
1970
Bobby Orr
273
Won
1972
Bobby Orr
229
Won
1974
Bobby Orr
207
Won
1973
Bobby Orr
191
Won
1951
Red Kelly
186
Won*
1975
Bobby Orr
180
Won
1953
Red Kelly
170
Won*
1965
Pierre Pilote
169
Won
1986
Paul Coffey
168
Won
1930
King Clancy
167
N/A
1985
Paul Coffey
166
Won
1984
Paul Coffey
164
2nd
1952
Red Kelly
162
Won*
1989
Paul Coffey
153
2nd
1964
Pierre Pilote
147
Won
1942
Tom Anderson
146
Won*
1969
Bobby Orr
145
Won
Notes: The starred years were before the Norris existed, so I used end of season All Star voting instead. King Clancy's 1930 season was before even All Star teams existed, so it is N/A.
That leaves only two seasons in which a player did not win the Norris. Both of those are Paul Coffey. In both seasons Coffey was playing with an offensive freak of a forward on his own team (one year Gretzky and one year Lemieux), a situation Karlsson is not in.
Based on this, you have to think Karlsson has a strong chance to take home the hardware this year.
I think Petro is more deserving of 2nd place than Weber, who has Suter to make him look good (and vice-versa). Pietrangelo has been a stud and largely partnered with Carlo Colaiacovo <yikes>
Weber is having a great year but he plays with another arguably top 5 defencemen, the other two have played way above expectations and are a big reason for there teams being where they are.
Karlsson at this point should be easy winner. I really just hope AP gets a top 3 dont really care if its 2nd or 3rd. Just as long as he is top 3 along with Weber.
Let me start by saying I'm sure this is some kind of weird coincidence, but it happens that I've watched about 15 Karlsson games this year, and he was mediocre at best defensively. Sometimes he would be brutal yet finish the game with two secondary assists.
I'm absolutely sure it is not representative of his full season, given the Sens fans tireless arguing about his defensive upside, which I'm sure is valid, but it's still worth noting. I mean, if it was 3-4 games, that would be one thing, but I'm talking about a near fifth of his full season.
I would be compelled to give the Norris to a real legit two-way D. I'm sure Karlsson will one day be one, just not this year, from my own personal observation.
Karlsson's advantage is that the hater vote will be split between the other two nominees. By virtue of him being so popular and polarizing.
So an EK win could be possible even if most voters don't believe that Karlsson should win. You can roughly see that effect reflected in this poll.
I wouldn't call it the 'hater vote'. I think the vote will be split between those who look to more of a two way defenceman (Weber and Pietrangelo) and those who look at the offensive numbers. (We saw some of that with Mike Green too.) This likely gives Karlsson the win.
Let me start by saying I'm sure this is some kind of weird coincidence, but it happens that I've watched about 15 Karlsson games this year, and he was mediocre at best defensively. Sometimes he would be brutal yet finish the game with two secondary assists.
I'm absolutely sure it is not representative of his full season, given the Sens fans tireless arguing about his defensive upside, which I'm sure is valid, but it's still worth noting. I mean, if it was 3-4 games, that would be one thing, but I'm talking about a near fifth of his full season.
I would be compelled to give the Norris to a real legit two-way D. I'm sure Karlsson will one day be one, just not this year, from my own personal observation.
15 games is a lot (in seriousness it is). I'm quite surprised you'd come to that conclusion after 15 games of Karlsson. Only thing that would make sense to me is that you watched him predominantly at the beginning of the year in your 15 game sample size or you legitimately watched him on every single "bad" game he played this year outside of the early games in the season and this is some kind of crazy coincidence.
Also possible you're not familiar with the system that Ottawa runs on defense that involves a lot of chasing in the defensive zone.
I say this as someone who has watched about 74 Sens game this year.
You're of course entitled to your opinion, but I find it very surprising.
Karlsson is great and all, offensively and no matter how much Sens fans scream their throat out regarding Karlssons defensiv play... the fact still remain that he only log on average 0:31 PK time a game. He actually play the least PK time of all Sens defensemans.
None of these other defensemen have had outstanding years. I mean theyve been as good as they usually are. Karlsson is a huge reason Ottowa is where it is in the standings.
Also to all of you saying he doesnt deserve it beacuse he puts up points but doesnt defend LOL@ you if you seriously think points dont have a massive part of the Norris decision. If I was a betting man he wins it.
Well Pietrangelo is only the MVP of the best team in NHL right now, nothing special.
Let me start by saying I'm sure this is some kind of weird coincidence, but it happens that I've watched about 15 Karlsson games this year, and he was mediocre at best defensively. Sometimes he would be brutal yet finish the game with two secondary assists.
I'm absolutely sure it is not representative of his full season, given the Sens fans tireless arguing about his defensive upside, which I'm sure is valid, but it's still worth noting. I mean, if it was 3-4 games, that would be one thing, but I'm talking about a near fifth of his full season.
I would be compelled to give the Norris to a real legit two-way D. I'm sure Karlsson will one day be one, just not this year, from my own personal observation.
By secondary assist you do mean made a great breakout pass after taking it away from the other team?
Karlsson is great and all, offensively and no matter how much Sens fans scream their throat out regarding Karlssons defensiv play... the fact still remain that he only log on average 0:31 PK time a game. He actually play the least PK time of all Sens defensemans.
And the fact remains, that Karlsson is a good penalty killer. Him only playing 31 seconds has nothing to do with his ability on the pk.
Looking at QUALCOMP, Karlsson is consistently going up against the other team's best at even strength (along with Kuba), and the other defensemen on the team are not close. IMO this makes the low PK time much less of a factor. If he can handle the tough matchups at ES, I don't see why he couldn't on the PK. It's more likely that they're just saving his minutes for ES and PP where they will really get the most out of him.
And the fact remains, that Karlsson is a good penalty killer. Him only playing 31 seconds has nothing to do with his ability on the pk.
That might be the case, but this season he hasn't shown that he is a good penalty killer because he doesn't consistently kill penalties. That doesn't mean he isn't good at it or even great at it. But he just hasn't done it.
Not that I don't think he should win the Norris. He is having an incredible year, I would have no objections whatsoever if he won it.
This sort of offense from Karlsson isn't that unheard of though. It was only a couple years ago that Green was better than a point per game defenseman and had ungodly +/- numbers to back it up. He didn't win the norris either year either.
There seems to be the tendency with elite scoring defensemen that they must be bad defensively. That rarely actually seems to be the case. My vote would be to Karlsson I think. If not Chara and then third maybe Pietrangelo.
That might be the case, but this season he hasn't shown that he is a good penalty killer because he doesn't consistently kill penalties. That doesn't mean he isn't good at it or even great at it. But he just hasn't done it.
Not that I don't think he should win the Norris. He is having an incredible year, I would have no objections whatsoever if he won it.
This sort of offense from Karlsson isn't that unheard of though. It was only a couple years ago that Green was better than a point per game defenseman and had ungodly +/- numbers to back it up. He didn't win the norris either year either.
There seems to be the tendency with elite scoring defensemen that they must be bad defensively. That rarely actually seems to be the case. My vote would be to Karlsson I think. If not Chara and then third maybe Pietrangelo.
Yes but that dont stop A-Pie from also playing top PP and top PK minutes for his team. No matter what the reason is, fact remain that Karlsson log very little PK minutes.
