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All Purpose Playoff Push Thread: Elimination Table, Magic Numbers, etc

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Old
03-09-2012, 01:10 PM
  #1
Mercurial
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All Purpose Playoff Push Thread: Elimination Table, Magic Numbers, etc

Below is the maximum points a team can get factoring in head to head games. In the head to heads I always give losing team 1 point, so it's the maximum they can get.

The columns is the team that wins all their remaining games, the row will be the maximum the other teams can get if that team wins also wins at 100%. This obviously changes in when the two teams still have to play each other (i.e. the Devils could max 111 pts, but only 109 if the Sens win all their remaining games as we have 2 left against each other). The bold values in the row is the 9th placed team, i.e. the number you'd have to beat to be in 8th.

 CurrPtsPanthersDevilsSensCapsJetsSabresBoltsLeafs
Panthers74106106106105105105106105
Devils81111111109111111111110110
Sens80106104106106 105 105106105
Caps72101102 102 102100102100101
Jets7299100999810010098100
Sabres709798979798989796
Bolts699998999897989997
Leafs679696969697959597


Last edited by Mercurial: 03-09-2012 at 01:34 PM.
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Old
03-09-2012, 01:16 PM
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CanadianHockey
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So we need 101 points to lock the playoffs down as of this instant.

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Old
03-09-2012, 01:17 PM
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Senacus Maximus
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Leafs not included.

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Old
03-09-2012, 01:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenacusMaximus View Post


Leafs not included.


They can get 97 points max, and 8 of their remain 15 games are against teams in this group. I can add them pretty easily, but they'll probably be the first to be eliminated ... oh, wait.

brb.

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Old
03-11-2012, 12:02 AM
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After Friday & Saturday's games, 99 points to lock a playoff spot.

 CurrPtsPanthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Panthers 75 105 105 105 104 104 104 105 104
Devils 83 111 111 109 111 111 111 110 110
Sens 81 105 103 105 105 104 105 105 104
Caps 74 101 102 102 102 100 102 100 101
Jets 72 97 98 97 96 98 98 96 98
Sabres 72 97 98 98 97 98 98 97 96
Bolts 69 97 96 97 96 95 96 97 95
Leafs 68 95 95 95 95 96 94 94 96

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03-12-2012, 09:53 AM
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 CurrPtsPanthersDevilsSensCapsJetsSabresBoltsLeafs
Panthers 77 105 105 105 104 104 104 105 104
Devils 85 111 111 109 111 111 111 110 110
Sens 81 105 103 105 105 104 105 105 104
Caps 76 101 102 102 102 100 102 100 102
Jets 72 97 98 97 96 98 98 96 98
Sabres 72 97 98 98 97 98 98 97 96
Bolts 69 97 96 97 96 95 96 97 95
Leafs 68 93 93 93 94 94 92 92 94

The following is a mimum table, for those on the outside looking in. This is the minimum number of points a team can get. E.g. if you were trying to catch the Capitals, you would look in their column to see what they would get if they lost all their games (currently 76 points). Then look at the other teams in the column to see what their minimum would be (if they lost all their games too), in this case the Jets would also so have 76 points as they have two games left against the Capitals. This table will show elimiations before just looking at games remaining.


CurrPts Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Panthers 77 77 77 77 79 79 79 77 79
Devils 85 85 85 89 85 85 85 87 87
Sens 81 81 85 81 81 83 81 81 83
Caps 76 78 76 76 76 80 76 80 76
Jets 72 74 72 74 76 72 72 76 72
Sabres 72 74 72 72 74 72 72 74 76
Bolts 69 69 71 69 71 73 71 69 73
Leafs 68 70 70 70 68 68 72 72 68


Last edited by Mercurial: 03-12-2012 at 09:59 AM.
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Old
03-14-2012, 10:10 AM
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Maximum Points - Still need 99 to lock
Pos GR CurrPts Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Panthers 3 13 79 105 105 105 104 104 104 105 105
Devils 6 12 85 109 109 107 109 109 109 108 108
Sens 7 12 81 105 103 105 105 104 105 105 104
Caps 8 12 78 101 102 102 102 100 102 100 102
Jets 10 13 72 97 98 97 96 98 98 96 98
Sabres 9 12 74 97 98 98 97 98 98 97 96
Bolts 11 13 71 97 96 97 96 95 96 97 95
Leafs 12 12 68 92 91 91 92 92 90 90 92

Minimum Points 79 is currently the minimum you could need to make the playoffs
Pos GR CurrPts Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Panthers 3 13 79 79 79 79 81 81 81 79 79
Devils 6 12 85 85 85 89 85 85 85 87 87
Sens 7 12 81 81 85 81 81 83 81 81 83
Caps 8 12 78 80 78 78 78 82 78 82 78
Jets 10 13 72 74 72 74 76 72 72 76 72
Sabres 9 12 74 76 74 74 76 74 74 76 78
Bolts 11 13 71 71 73 71 73 75 73 71 75
Leafs 12 12 68 68 70 70 68 68 72 72 68

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Old
03-14-2012, 10:49 AM
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Jesus, that means we need to be WAY above .500

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Old
03-14-2012, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
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Jesus, that means we need to be WAY above .500
If one of the other teams win out the rest of their season, yes.

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Old
03-14-2012, 10:55 AM
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Jesus, that means we need to be WAY above .500
This is if everybody is perfect

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Old
03-14-2012, 02:08 PM
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I did a .500 chart being which we will require around 93 points to make the playoffs which seems a bit more realistic.

So the teams would end up having these point totals going .500 the rest of the way

NYR-108
BOS-96
FLO-92
PITT-103
PHI-100
NJ-97
OTT-93
WAS-90



That's my guess if everything goes right.

with BUF-86 if they stable out at .500 so we have a fair chance


no team has ever missed the playoffs in the east with 93 points so that's the magic number and all we need to do is play .500 hockey, keeping my fingers crossed!


Last edited by the tribute: 03-14-2012 at 02:15 PM.
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Old
03-14-2012, 02:15 PM
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We have a pretty good schedule for the remainder. We should be okay vs Habs and Leafs. Jersey twice could skew the results (4 point games); also Boston.

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Old
03-15-2012, 09:35 AM
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Now with added Bruins goodness.

Maximum Points
Pos GR CurrPts Bruins Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Bruins 2 13 83 109 108 109 108 108 109 108 108 108
Panthers 3 13 79 104 105 105 105 104 104 104 105 105
Devils 6 12 85 109 109 109 107 109 109 109 108 108
Sens 7 11 82 103 104 102 104 104 103 104 104 103
Caps 8 12 78 101 101 102 102 102 100 102 100 102
Jets 10 12 74 98 97 98 97 96 98 98 96 98
Sabres 9 11 75 96 96 97 97 96 97 97 96 95
Bolts 11 13 71 96 97 96 97 96 95 96 97 95
Leafs 12 12 68 91 92 91 91 92 92 90 90 92

Minimum Points
Pos GR CurrPts Bruins Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Bruins 2 13 83 83 85 83 85 85 83 85 85 85
Panthers 3 13 79 81 79 79 79 81 81 81 79 79
Devils 6 12 85 85 85 85 89 85 85 85 87 87
Sens 7 11 82 84 82 86 82 82 84 82 82 84
Caps 8 12 78 80 80 78 78 78 82 78 82 78
Jets 10 12 74 74 76 74 76 78 74 74 78 74
Sabres 9 11 75 77 77 75 75 77 75 7577 79
Bolts 11 13 71 73 71 73 71 73 75 73 71 75
Leafs 12 12 68 70 68 70 70 68 68 72 72 68

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Old
03-19-2012, 09:25 AM
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Maximum Points: 97 points to lock.
Pos GR CurrPts Bruins Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Bruins 2 11 85 107 107 107 106 106 107 106 106 106
Panthers 3 11 83 104 105 105 105 104 104 105 105 105
Devils 6 10 87 107 107 107 105 107 107 107 106 106
Sens 7 9 84 101 102 100 102 102 101 102 102 102
Caps 8 10 78 97 97 98 98 98 97 97 97 98
Jets 9 10 76 96 95 96 95 95 96 96 94 96
Sabres 10 10 76 95 96 96 96 95 96 96 95 94
Bolts 13 11 71 92 93 92 93 92 91 92 93 92
Leafs 12 10 72 91 92 91 92 92 92 90 91 92

Minimum Points: Chasing down the caps would mean that 79 is the minimum currently required to get it in.
Pos GR CurrPts Bruins Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Bruins 2 11 85 85 85 85 87 87 85 87 87 87
Panthers 3 11 83 85 83 83 83 85 85 83 83 83
Devils 6 10 87 87 87 87 91 87 87 87 89 89
Sens 7 9 84 86 84 88 84 84 86 84 84 84
Caps 8 10 78 80 80 78 78 78 80 80 80 78
Jets 9 10 76 76 78 76 78 78 76 76 80 76
Sabres 10 10 76 78 76 76 76 78 76 76 78 80
Bolts 13 11 71 73 71 73 71 73 75 73 71 73
Leafs 12 10 72 74 72 74 72 72 72 76 74 72

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Old
03-24-2012, 10:46 PM
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Bumping this thread.

Mendes has tweeted that our Magic Number is 10.

The magic number is the number of points needed to clinch a playoff spot.
The number is a combination of points from Sens wins and OTLs, and points that the Sabres miss out on earning (ie 1 point for a Sabres OTL, 2 points for a regulation loss).

Eg the Sens go 2-1-1 and the Sabres go 1-2-1 in the next 4 games. That means 5 points earned by us + 5 points missed by Buffalo, which equals the 10 points we need to clinch.

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Old
03-24-2012, 11:29 PM
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I'm still going by the tried and tested 92 points. Today's win was huge. That leaves 3 wins that we need. The fact that Washington and Buffalo play each other is a big plus in our favour. Shouldn't completely overlook the possibility that Florida or Boston misses. Probably a longshot, but not out of the realm of the possible.

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Old
03-26-2012, 09:04 AM
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Maximum Points: 97 current minumum required. Caps appear to be the team to beat out, right now.

Pos GR CurrPts Bruins Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Bruins 2 7 91 105 105 105 104 104 105 104 104 105
Panthers 3 7 87 101 101 101 101 100 100 101 101 101
Devils 6 6 90 102 102 102 101 102 102 102 101 102
Sens 7 6 86 97 98 97 98 98 97 98 98 98
Caps 8 6 84 95 95 96 96 96 96 95 95 96
Sabres 9 7 84 97 98 98 98 97 98 98 98 96
Jets 10 7 78 92 91 92 91 92 92 92 90 92
Bolts 11 8 75 90 91 90 91 90 89 91 91 90
Leafs 13 6 75 87 87 87 87 87 87 85 86 87

Minimum Points; 87 is the current minimum you need without a tie breaker, so for Leafs to get in, they'd have to win 6 straight to get to 87, the Caps & Sabres after tonight can't pick up any more points. After tonight the max either of those two could have would be 86 & 85.

Pos GR CurrPts Bruins Panthers Devils Sens Caps Jets Sabres Bolts Leafs
Bruins 2 7 91 91 91 91 93 93 91 93 93 91
Panthers 3 7 87 87 87 87 87 89 89 87 87 87
Devils 6 6 90 90 90 90 92 90 90 90 92 90
Sens 7 6 86 88 86 88 86 86 88 86 86 86
Caps 8 6 84 86 86 84 84 84 84 86 86 84
Sabres 9 7 84 86 84 84 84 86 84 84 84 88
Jets 10 7 78 78 80 78 80 78 78 78 82 78
Bolts 11 8 75 77 75 77 75 77 79 75 75 77
Leafs 13 6 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 79 77 75

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Old
03-27-2012, 09:50 AM
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92 points is the magic number for the Sens IMO

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Old
03-27-2012, 12:32 PM
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For us to clinch mathematically still right now...
We need 3 wins in our next 5 - and Buffalo to lose tonight in regulation.

If Buffalo loses in OT, or Washington loses we need an extra win (because WSH currently has the tiebreaker for 8th).

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03-27-2012, 12:41 PM
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This is a damned tight playoff race. I'm nervous.

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Old
03-27-2012, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mat_sens View Post
92 points is the magic number for the Sens IMO
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caeldan View Post
For us to clinch mathematically still right now...
We need 3 wins in our next 5 - and Buffalo to lose tonight in regulation.

If Buffalo loses in OT, or Washington loses we need an extra win (because WSH currently has the tiebreaker for 8th).
Something I was looking at when I was looking at the B's playoff situation a few days ago is that if a team can get 94 points they are a lock to get in the playoffs. So the 3 wins in 5 is pretty accurate. In the years since the lockout in the Eastern Conference 8/9 has gone like this 93/91, 88/87, (an abberation it seems),93/93, 94/92, 92/91 and 92/90. So 92 points might get you guys in but 94 is what you should be aiming for.


Last edited by SpokedLightning: 03-27-2012 at 01:21 PM. Reason: added last line
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Old
03-27-2012, 01:21 PM
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After last night, the magic number is down to eight. That is, any combination of Senators points gained, plus Sabres and Caps points lost, adding up to eight guarantees our ticket to the playoffs. After tonight, that number will be down to seven, or perhaps six, depending on if the Caps/Sabres game goes to OT.

Bottom line - we are in pretty good shape. :-)

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Old
03-27-2012, 01:37 PM
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The best for us is if the Sabres lose in regulation tonight. That would leave them 4 points back of the Sens with 5 games left just as it would if the Caps lose but the Sens hold the tie breaker over the Sabres. In that scenario, the Sens could win as few as 2 more times for 92 points and the Sabres would have to win 4 of 5 to tie and lose the other one in ot to gain the last spot over us. Of course if they lose in regulation tonight and the Sens win 3 out of 5 it won't matter what the Sabres do.

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Old
03-27-2012, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larionov View Post
After last night, the magic number is down to eight. That is, any combination of Senators points gained, plus Sabres and Caps points lost, adding up to eight guarantees our ticket to the playoffs. After tonight, that number will be down to seven, or perhaps six, depending on if the Caps/Sabres game goes to OT.

Bottom line - we are in pretty good shape. :-)
The magic number against the Caps is 9. They could lose 2 of 6 games in regulation and we could win 2 of 5 games of the magic 8 but they would still have another 8 points available to them for the tie so both teams would end up with 92 points. They would get into the playoffs on the row. 8 is the number with the Sabres though.

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Old
03-27-2012, 01:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larionov View Post
After last night, the magic number is down to eight. That is, any combination of Senators points gained, plus Sabres and Caps points lost, adding up to eight guarantees our ticket to the playoffs. After tonight, that number will be down to seven, or perhaps six, depending on if the Caps/Sabres game goes to OT.

Bottom line - we are in pretty good shape. :-)
Magic Number is 8 for Sabres, 9 for Caps.

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