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Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

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Old
11-22-2004, 01:22 AM
  #1
Mess
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Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

WHAT MAKES A GOOD PROSPECT ??

Actually HF .. has

Leafs 5th best prospect Kyle Wellwood listed at:
5-11 190 lbs
Born May 16, 1983



YEAR......TEAM...........GP .....G....A...PTS....+/-
2004/2005 ST. Johns......16......9...11....20....+7
2003/2004 ST. Johns......76.....20...35....55...-14


http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospect.php?pid=2232

and Habs TOP 50 Prospect Chris Higgins listed at :
5-11 188 lbs
Born June 2, 1983



YEAR.......TEAM.........GP .....G....A...PTS....+/-
2004/2005 Hamilton......18......3....3.....6....-1
2003/2004 Hamilton......67.....21...27....48...+16


http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospect.php?pid=3301

The 2 players are 16 days a part in age, 2 pounds in weight and Higgins had 18 PIMS to Wellwoods 4 Last season.

At this point judging from Wellwood's AHL success and dominance..

WHAT makes Higgins a TOP 50 prospect and Wellwood not even a consideration, and what are the factors that determine, ranking among your peers??

Considering how close they are in Stature and Statistically except for points this season ..While I realize that current season stats are not a part of the Top 50 this year ..still based on last season ..they seem fairly close ....


Last edited by Mess: 11-29-2004 at 07:39 AM.
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11-22-2004, 01:25 AM
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I can't beleive you're posting that....

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11-22-2004, 01:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ax˛+bx+c
I can't beleive you're posting that....
That response is the exact reason I am posting it ..

You tell me what is the Difference between the two players that would provoke a response like that .. ??

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11-22-2004, 01:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ax˛+bx+c
I can't beleive you're posting that....
how about explaining why you feel it's so assinine, rather than just posting what you did letting people think of you "typical hab fan response"

prove him wrong

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11-22-2004, 01:32 AM
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looks like big difference in +/- department. But otherwise those lists are mostly based on hype and mostly consist of high draft picks.

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11-22-2004, 01:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prucha73
looks like big difference in +/- department. .
CANADIAN
Y-Hamilton (1) 80 49 19 8 4 110 .688 279 191 1319 26- 7- 4- 3 23-12- 4- 1 2- 6- 2- 0 0- 1- 0- 0
X-Manitoba (9) 80 37 33 8 2 84 .525 229 228 1405 22-14- 4- 0 15-19- 4- 2 4- 3- 1- 2 0- 1- 0- 0
St. John's 80 32 40 6 2 72 .450 236 285 1683 19-17- 3- 1 13-23- 3- 1 6- 2- 1- 1 0- 0- 0- 1
Saint John 80 32 41 6 1 71 .444 203 223 1704 16-20- 3- 1 16-21- 3- 0 4- 5- 1- 0 3- 0- 0- 0


that could have something to do with it

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11-22-2004, 01:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prucha73
looks like big difference in +/- department. But otherwise those lists are mostly based on hype and mostly consist of high draft picks.
Fair enough .... but is that correct, and its not intended to reflect any negativity on the list .... Better put ...

What makes one player considered a GOOD prospect and the other AVERAGE when the similarities are so close ..??

and even futher similarities exist ... both are TOP LINE AHL players .. both played in the WJC for their respective countries ... Higgins may have an extra TOP gear speed wise, but those that watch Wellwood play he is not slouch and deciptive speed wise .. and Notice the turnaround in +/- this season .. probably more a refection on team performance than individual ones ..

and take into consideration that Dallas has sent Steve Ott, Trevor Daley and Dan Ellis - Three very good young players to bolster the Hamilton team .. that can only benefit Higgins statiscally ..

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11-22-2004, 01:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andora
CANADIAN
Y-Hamilton (1) 80 49 19 8 4 110 .688 279 191 1319 26- 7- 4- 3 23-12- 4- 1 2- 6- 2- 0 0- 1- 0- 0
X-Manitoba (9) 80 37 33 8 2 84 .525 229 228 1405 22-14- 4- 0 15-19- 4- 2 4- 3- 1- 2 0- 1- 0- 0
St. John's 80 32 40 6 2 72 .450 236 285 1683 19-17- 3- 1 13-23- 3- 1 6- 2- 1- 1 0- 0- 0- 1
Saint John 80 32 41 6 1 71 .444 203 223 1704 16-20- 3- 1 16-21- 3- 0 4- 5- 1- 0 3- 0- 0- 0


that could have something to do with it
And notice this season as St. Johns (19 points) is slighlty ahead on Hamilton (16 points) in the current standings Wellwood sits at a +7 and Higgins a - 1 currently ..

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11-22-2004, 01:48 AM
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I'm not an expert on the two, and somebody can correct me if I'm grossly mistaken, but I'm pretty sure while the same size, Wellwood plays a "small" game while Higgins does not.

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11-22-2004, 01:52 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Evman
I'm not an expert on the two, and somebody can correct me if I'm grossly mistaken, but I'm pretty sure while the same size, Wellwood plays a "small" game while Higgins does not.
Wellwood had 4 PIMS ... Higgins 18 last season ... Is that enough to swing the pendulum ??

Since both players are playing and succeeding in a BIG MAN's AHL currently under the same conditions .. Should Style of Game factor in ?? .. as both seem to use differnment methods to produce at this level and at any level you always have all types of players ..

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11-22-2004, 01:54 AM
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From everything I've seen/read, Higgins plays much better defense than Wellwood and throws his body around more.

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11-22-2004, 01:54 AM
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From the prospect profiles:

Quote:
Higgins is the steadiest forward in the Canadiens farm system, with the former Yale star gaining a reputation for his leadership, heart, versatility, and finely tuned defensive instincts. He has good speed and a knack for delivering hard hits, and is a potential 25-30-goal scorer in the NHL. Although smaller in stature, Higgins nonetheless is an excellent two-way prospect, and has the potential to one day become a team captain.
Quote:
Kyle has good offensive skills and instincts... of that there can be no doubt. He reads plays well and can initiate rushes. He is very adept at handling the puck, and has a nice finishing touch around the net. However, as has always been the case, size is a major concern. He can take some physical contact, but at several times in his junior career he has been much less effective when he is receiving physical contact. Also, unlike other skilled smaller forwards, such as Briere in the NHL, Kyle does not have the speed necessary to avoid these hits. He does however exhibit good leadership skills. In addition, this year he seemed to show a little more ability to step up his game when it counts most, as he did in the OHL playoffs. Wellwood shows tremendous poise on the ice, and rarely loses his temper or discipline, as evidenced by his 0 PIM this season. Wellwood is strong on face-offs. His performance with Canada in Halifax showed everyone that he is capable of playing at a higher level of play.
I haven't seen either play very much, but so I can't comment myself but I'm guessing that's the difference right there, defense and physical play. I'm gathering Higgins style is a little more suited to the NHL.

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11-22-2004, 02:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
From the prospect profiles:





I haven't seen either play very much, but so I can't comment myself but I'm guessing that's the difference right there, defense and physical play. I'm gathering Higgins style is a little more suited to the NHL.
And skating (well, speed here as you outlined). That's always been one of the bigger concerns with Wellwood, as I understand it.

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11-22-2004, 02:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
From the prospect profiles:


I haven't seen either play very much, but so I can't comment myself but I'm guessing that's the difference right there, defense and physical play. I'm gathering Higgins style is a little more suited to the NHL.
Good Post ...

But can defense be taught ???

and

Do all players need to be solid 2 way players.. and currently Wellwood + 7 leads his team in +/- an indication that he is conscious of the defensive side of his game, while his senior Linemates Druken -2 and Ling +3 while Higgins is a - 1 currently on his team ...

Offensive skills not as much as those are usually either you have them or your don't ...

and not as a reflection of either Prospect but lets take a very successful NHL player like Joe Sakic .. He is also 5-11 185 pounds and certainly does not play a very physical game, but rather a skill one ..while also taking few penalties ..

Could both players model their games similar to Burnaby JOE ...

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11-22-2004, 02:09 AM
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you know mess, you better be careful and not let this defense/physical defense with higgins win, as you'll be inadvertently be supporting the kesler in the top 50 argument


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11-22-2004, 02:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Wellwood had 4 PIMS ... Higgins 18 last season ... Is that enough to swing the pendulum ??
Do PIMs quantify what kind of game a player plays? Maybe they can differentiate between Tie Domi and Robert Reichel, but that's about it.

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11-22-2004, 02:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andora
you know mess, you better be careful and not let this defense/physical defense with higgins win, as you'll be inadvertently be supporting the kesler in the top 50 argument

We don't want to make this into another Kesler thread .PLEASE !!!!!

.. but like Mark Stuart being left off the TOP 50 as well .. its his offensive game like Kesler that is keeping them off despite both players strong defensive games ..but that reflects on the word POTENTIAL that you do not like ..

In this case I feel Both Wellwood and Higgins will be look for their offensive games at the next level and be counted on to score ..

and it really is not about any list ... that is irrelevant ..yet it gives credibility to Higgins that he happen to make it ... but despite proving his contractors wrong Wellwood has been ever bit as successful statistically as Higgins ..

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11-22-2004, 02:17 AM
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Defence can be taught, but if your argument is that Wellwood should be on the top 50 list because Higgins is, you can't use a "what if" argument to justify it.

Basically, if Higgins has the clear advantage in defense, physical play and skating (as indicated in their HF profiles) and Wellwood only has the advantage in offense, obviously Wellwood would have to be quite a bit better than Higgins offensively to make him a better or even equal prospect.

As for the +/- stat...well, as you said this year's stats weren't figured in so...

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11-22-2004, 02:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Evman
Do PIMs quantify what kind of game a player plays? Maybe they can differentiate between Tie Domi and Robert Reichel, but that's about it.
Just one indicator that reflects style .. We don't have a # of hits stat between the two to use and its not like we are seeing a Theo Fleury like play from either smaller player here .. Right ???

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11-22-2004, 02:22 AM
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Oh, just wanted to add that you are probably going to want to edit the title of the thread to spell Chris Higgins name right before you get Habs fans jumping all over you.

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11-22-2004, 02:29 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Defence can be taught, but if your argument is that Wellwood should be on the top 50 list because Higgins is, you can't use a "what if" argument to justify it.

Basically, if Higgins has the clear advantage in defense, physical play and skating (as indicated in their HF profiles) and Wellwood only has the advantage in offense, obviously Wellwood would have to be quite a bit better than Higgins offensively to make him a better or even equal prospect.

As for the +/- stat...well, as you said this year's stats weren't figured in so...
Again ... Not intended to get Wellwood on any list ... NOT AT ALL ..

But I picked two prospects from different teams that seem very similar in many categories and asking the honest question with so many things similar why are they so different in PROSPECT POTENTIAL rankings ??

While skating speed is a factor, we have both seen many great Skaters as prospects that have not succeeded at the NHL level .. so how much of a factor should that be in weighting a prospect .. If you can take two players in the same league AHL and see similar STATS ..

Wellwood 55 points .. Higgins 48 points both in their ROOKIE AHL seasons ..

Does it matter if one player is a faster skater??

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11-22-2004, 02:30 AM
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Don't Peter Sarno's numbers compare favorably to Wellwood's?

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11-22-2004, 02:31 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Again ... Not intended to get Wellwood on any list ... NOT AT ALL ..

But I picked two prospects from different teams that seem very similar in many categories and asking the honest question with so many things similar why are they so different in PROSPECT POTENTIAL rankings ??

While skating speed is a factor, we have both seen many great Skaters as prospects that have not succeeded at the NHL level .. so how much of a factor should that be in weighting a prospect .. If you can take two players in the same league AHL and see similar STATS ..

Wellwood 55 points .. Higgins 48 points both in their ROOKIE AHL seasons ..

Does it matter if one player is a faster skater??
Yes. Skating is a big factor in determining whether they'll be able to transfer their games to the NHL.

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11-22-2004, 02:33 AM
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Higgins is all about work ethic ...
he will do whatever it takes to suceed .. he's a fabulous skater with lots of skills., he's also a premier defensive player and a good leader ...
while wellwood is more like corey locke from the habs ... lot's of hockey skills and good vision but doesnt have enough speed,grit and defensive awareness to fully suceed in the NHL ...
it's like comparing Matt Stajan vs Corey locke ... (not statisticaly but more like player style)
anyway higgins and the FULL bulldogs squad just can't do nothing offensively this year.. he's still the most complete player you could find and he fully deserve his top 50 rating! you just have to look more farther than just stats .. stats dont dont tell all the story!

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11-22-2004, 02:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Yes. Skating is a big factor in determining whether they'll be able to transfer their games to the NHL.
Especially when they're relatively small in size (i.e. below average) too, I would think.

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