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Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

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Old
11-22-2004, 02:36 AM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epsilon
Don't Peter Sarno's numbers compare favorably to Wellwood's?
But now you are mixing Apples with Oranges here .. Sarno is 4+ years older and has at least 3+ AHL and 1 International (Finland) years under his belt ..

So that changes a lot of things ..NO ????

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11-22-2004, 02:38 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by think.blue
Especially when they're relatively small in size (i.e. below average) too, I would think.
Pretty much. I'd say the general rule is if you're small, you need to be a good skater to make up for it. There are some exceptions, but not too many.

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11-22-2004, 02:41 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Yes. Skating is a big factor in determining whether they'll be able to transfer their games to the NHL.
Agreed ... but Wellwood is not slow ... Higgins just happens to be considered faster .. Not sure were we can find a stat to prove that difference .. both played in the AHL ALL-STAR game .. do we have Skills competiton times to know HOW MUCH the difference is ..

Do you feel that's the biggest reason why Higgins may make it and Wellwood not at the NHL level ??

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11-22-2004, 02:46 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Evman
Do PIMs quantify what kind of game a player plays? Maybe they can differentiate between Tie Domi and Robert Reichel, but that's about it.
PIMs do tend to show the type of game players play. 4 PIMs vs 18 PIMs to me would just mean that Higgins got caught more, and not that Wellwood didn't play rough at all. I'm not going to claim that HIggins is worse or anything, I've never seen him play, however I would have to say that the statistics presented should at the very least give a shock into how much they overate/underate certain players. I mean, we've all heard Higgins proclaimed to be some form of a super prospect, but Wellwood has consistently been knocked as too small to play the game. Seems like a double standard.

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11-22-2004, 02:49 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryoptix
Higgins is all about work ethic ...
he will do whatever it takes to suceed .. he's a fabulous skater with lots of skills., he's also a premier defensive player and a good leader ...
while wellwood is more like corey locke from the habs ... lot's of hockey skills and good vision but doesnt have enough speed,grit and defensive awareness to fully suceed in the NHL ...
it's like comparing Matt Stajan vs Corey locke ... (not statisticaly but more like player style)
anyway higgins and the FULL bulldogs squad just can't do nothing offensively this year.. he's still the most complete player you could find and he fully deserve his top 50 rating! you just have to look more farther than just stats .. stats dont dont tell all the story!
Habs TOP prospect on TOP 50 list member Andrei Kostitsyn compares nothing like Higgins either yet considered even a better prospect without the 2-way Defensive tag and physical play?? WHY ?? ..because of the 1-2 inches in Height, and he also has Epilepsy hurdle to overcome ..

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11-22-2004, 02:51 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Defence can be taught, but if your argument is that Wellwood should be on the top 50 list because Higgins is, you can't use a "what if" argument to justify it.

Basically, if Higgins has the clear advantage in defense, physical play and skating (as indicated in their HF profiles) and Wellwood only has the advantage in offense, obviously Wellwood would have to be quite a bit better than Higgins offensively to make him a better or even equal prospect.

As for the +/- stat...well, as you said this year's stats weren't figured in so...
I don't believe using HF profiles when justifying an HF ranking is really a good route to take. It would seem this thread is asking the question "why is HF considering him a better prospect" and for that answer, you must look for different write-ups and what not. While I'm not debating the issues in question, just stating it seems rather silly to justify the ratings based on the same sites profiles, as if they are rated better here, they should be better on the profile too.

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11-22-2004, 02:52 AM
  #32
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A couple of stats that really reflect the kind of game Higgins plays...

+16
4 PP goals
1 SH goal
4 GW goals

Higgins is projected as an all round checking forward, in the Mike Ricci mold; what I have seen from his Hamilton games, he plays an aggressive game, excels at penalty killing, is threat in short handed situations because of his speed, most importantly, he appears to come up with those important goals...

Most Hab fans see him anchoring our 3rd line for a long time to come, and personally I see him as our future captain...

Will it happen, perhaps not but he certainly is capable of the former...

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11-22-2004, 02:52 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Habs TOP prospect on TOP 50 list member Andrei Kostitsyn compares nothing like Higgins either yet considered even a better prospect without the 2-way Defensive tag and physical play?? WHY ?? ..because of the 1-2 inches in Height, and he also has Epilepsy hurdle to overcome ..
Kostitsyn is a typical boom or bust type of prospect !!!
he has all the tools to dominate in the NHL .. he just need to be better defensively and play with his teammated more ... he has a powerfull shot (kovalev type of shot) he has good speed and he can play the physical game, he's also still very young.. give him time .. but in terms of potential IMO he's top 10 material for the prospects !!

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11-22-2004, 02:53 AM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by think.blue
Especially when they're relatively small in size (i.e. below average) too, I would think.
Is that an OVER HYPE attibute though ???

When players are on the PP and in the other teams zone moving the puck .. How much of a factor does STRAIGHT OUT SPEED ..play in success and offensive creativity and offensive output ...

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11-22-2004, 02:55 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Is that an OVER HYPE attibute though ???

When players are on the PP and in the other teams zone moving the puck .. How much of a factor does STRAIGHT OUT SPEED ..play in success and offensive creativity and offensive output ...
mike ribeiro is one worst skater in the league but one the most skilled .. he still do greatin the NHL last year with 65pts(top 10 center in the league) but would you prefer
ribeiro or peca/madden?

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11-22-2004, 02:57 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Agreed ... but Wellwood is not slow ... Higgins just happens to be considered faster .. Not sure were we can find a stat to prove that difference .. both played in the AHL ALL-STAR game .. do we have Skills competiton times to know HOW MUCH the difference is ..

Do you feel that's the biggest reason why Higgins may make it and Wellwood not at the NHL level ??
Honestly, I don't know. I don't feel I've seen enough of either of them to make a judgement call. But generally speaking, skating ability does often mean the difference between making it and not making it, especially, as true.blue brought up, if you're a smaller player.

So far, the only area you've shown Wellwood might have an edge on Higgins is his offensive game. Again I have to say that from what I've heard, in order to place Wellwood on the same level as Higgins right now you need to show that Wellwood's defense, skating and physical play are better than described or that his offensive game so far exceeds Higgins advantage in those other areas that the advantages become irrelevant.

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11-22-2004, 02:58 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryoptix
Kostitsyn is a typical boom or bust type of prospect !!!
he has all the tools to dominate in the NHL .. he just need to be better defensively and play with his teammated more ... he has a powerfull shot (kovalev type of shot) he has good speed and he can play the physical game, he's also still very young.. give him time .. but in terms of potential IMO he's top 10 material for the prospects !!
but you missed the point other than possibly boom or bust ....

He is nothing like Higgins at all in style and considered a top prospect .. Wellwood style is not like Higgins either and closer creatively wise to Kostitsyn .. so basically falls inbetween the two in style perhaps .. but the critisim against Wellwood can't be fairly used as the gifted offensive Kostitsyn does not have them either ..

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11-22-2004, 03:01 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregStack
I don't believe using HF profiles when justifying an HF ranking is really a good route to take. It would seem this thread is asking the question "why is HF considering him a better prospect" and for that answer, you must look for different write-ups and what not. While I'm not debating the issues in question, just stating it seems rather silly to justify the ratings based on the same sites profiles, as if they are rated better here, they should be better on the profile too.
Fair enough, although I'm not really trying to justify the HF ranking. Actually, I'm not really arguing in favour of Higgins or against Wellwood. I'm intrigued by Messenger's argument and am just posting for the sake of discussion. I admit, I was a bit lazy and just used the most readily available resource.

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11-22-2004, 03:02 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Makarov
A couple of stats that really reflect the kind of game Higgins plays...

+16
4 PP goals
1 SH goal
4 GW goals
...
what does game winners really have to do with reflecting higgins' mightier game? unless those goals came in overtime or in the dying minutes of the third, i would have to disagree with you about them reflecting his game. a gw can come in the 2nd period, even the 1st. if that's the case, it just means he scored. unless you know when he scored those game winners and in what circumstance, i don't think it's cut and dry like that

as well, powerplay goals.. :shrugs.. wellwood has nice PP stats i'm sure

and as for the SH goal, it is impressive, i love guys who are a threat to score on the PK, and i should say higgins is one of my favorite prospects, has been for a couple years...

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11-22-2004, 03:05 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
but you missed the point other than possibly boom or bust ....

He is nothing like Higgins at all in style and considered a top prospect .. Wellwood style is not like Higgins either and closer creatively wise to Kostitsyn .. so basically falls inbetween the two in style perhaps .. but the critisim against Wellwood can't be fairly used as the gifted offensive Kostitsyn does not have them either ..
actually ..
i have no proof to back it up ..
but from what i've seen kostitsyn is way faster than wellwood , he's also more physical (he's no monster on ice but he can play on the board quite well and deliver some nice hits) and has the best shot you could see in a prospect , he's also one year younger(at this stage it counts a lot) it's his 1st year playing in North America, he can't even speak english!!!
anyway even if im not a kostitsyn fan you can't deny that he has a bigger ceilling than wellwood !
btw i would have rank kostitsyn more between 40-50 and i will have put perezhogin on that list too(can't beleive they let him out the list) .. anyway just my opinion there

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11-22-2004, 03:06 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryoptix
mike ribeiro is one worst skater in the league but one the most skilled .. he still do greatin the NHL last year with 65pts(top 10 center in the league) but would you prefer
ribeiro or peca/madden?
That's actually a decent comparison as I have come a bit more onto Wellwood since last season and actually think he improved his skating quite a bit from what it was.

Higgins might turn out to be a lesser Madden or Peca. Those comparisons are pretty much in-line with his play.

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11-22-2004, 03:06 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
but you missed the point other than possibly boom or bust ....

He is nothing like Higgins at all in style and considered a top prospect .. Wellwood style is not like Higgins either and closer creatively wise to Kostitsyn .. so basically falls inbetween the two in style perhaps .. but the critisim against Wellwood can't be fairly used as the gifted offensive Kostitsyn does not have them either ..
There are some people who consider Higgins a better prospect than Kostitsyn.

That being said, those who feel Kostitsyn is the Habs top prospect probably see him as offensively gifted enough to make up for his deficiencies in other areas. Wellwood may or may not fall into that cateogory himself. That's a matter of opinion.

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11-22-2004, 03:10 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryoptix
mike ribeiro is one worst skater in the league but one the most skilled .. he still do greatin the NHL last year with 65pts(top 10 center in the league) but would you prefer
ribeiro or peca/madden?
I see what your getting at style wise difference .. I realize that .. but style does not make Ribeiro any less a contributing NHL player then Peca .. Teams need all types ..

but in fact I see Wellwood more like Yanic Perreault in comparison, Style wise, speed wise ,size wise, physical play etc ... but Perreault has had a pretty successful NHL career to date as well .. Perreault 400+ points Peca 370 + points both in 600+ games ...

So that is my point if Perreault (Wellwood) and Peca (Higgins) can both be succesfull .. How does NHL POTENTIAL ..make one better than the other ??

Wouldn't it come down to preference ?? If your team already has Peca style 2 way players would they not also be able to use a Perreault type player ??

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11-22-2004, 03:19 AM
  #44
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In my opinion Chris Higgins is Montreal's top forward. He comes with no baggage and is a sure bet to play in the NHL atleast as a 4th line forward. Kostitsyn and Perezhogin are highly skilled, but I think that raw offensive ability factors out the high bust-potential with players like Andrei and Alexander. Higgins is a guy that may not score, but he'll contribute in other aspects of the game, the other two would have a tough time helping a NHL club if they're not scoring.

Anyways... as for Wellwood vs. Higgins, I'm a huge fan of Chris Higgins and a fan of Wellwood, personally I think he's extremely overlooked and underrated by fans, even Leaf fans including myself. His skill level in my opinion is on par with many notable prospects around the league, the question mark is his skating and average defensive game. His skating isn't bad, it's just not eye-popping, not what you'd expect from a small forward that tore up the OHL. He has very deceptive speed and as long as his strength improves, he has a very good chance at making the NHL. Having said that, I think most Leaf fans don't have high hopes for him like they do with Steen, Colaiacovo, etc... I think he'll be a guy that'll make it to the NHL and surprise many.

If it were up to me, I'd take Higgins over Wellwood because of the security, if I had the luxury of having a lot of depth in the system up front, I would take Wellwood because I think his ceiling is higher, his skill level is higher, and if he develops into a NHL player, he'll produce more offensively.

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11-22-2004, 03:19 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryoptix
actually ..
i have no proof to back it up ..
but from what i've seen kostitsyn is way faster than wellwood , he's also more physical (he's no monster on ice but he can play on the board quite well and deliver some nice hits) and has the best shot you could see in a prospect , he's also one year younger(at this stage it counts a lot) it's his 1st year playing in North America, he can't even speak english!!!
anyway even if im not a kostitsyn fan you can't deny that he has a bigger ceilling than wellwood !
btw i would have rank kostitsyn more between 40-50 and i will have put perezhogin on that list too(can't beleive they let him out the list) .. anyway just my opinion there

I am actually a big fan of Kostitsyn .. and no doubt his ceiling is high as a offensive prospect .. wasn't trying to compare Wellwood in any category other than to emphasize the critisims against Wellwood and in favour of Higgins was 2-way style are not being held against Kostitsyn ..

They offensive ceiling was Wellwood to Higgins is what interested me ..

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11-22-2004, 03:20 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
I see what your getting at style wise difference .. I realize that .. but style does not make Ribeiro any less a contributing NHL player then Peca .. Teams need all types ..

but in fact I see Wellwood more like Yanic Perreault in comparison, Style wise, speed wise ,size wise, physical play etc ... but Perreault has had a pretty successful NHL career to date as well .. Perreault 400+ points Peca 370 + points both in 600+ games ...

So that is my point if Perreault (Wellwood) and Peca (Higgins) can both be succesfull .. How does NHL POTENTIAL ..make one better than the other ??

Wouldn't it come down to preference ?? If your team already has Peca style 2 way players would they not also be able to use a Perreault type player ??
actually perreault was a pain to watch in critical situation because of his speed and defensive liabilty.. he made his career with his faceoff skills and shot ...
montreal need fast,gritty player with good 2way game ...so i would take higgins over wellwood and over lots of other prospect ..
in today NHL teams always look for higgins type of player .. perreault is very easy too find and seriously he wouldn't have had this career without his faceoff skills ..

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11-22-2004, 03:28 AM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafaholix
In my opinion Chris Higgins is Montreal's top forward. He comes with no baggage and is a sure bet to play in the NHL atleast as a 4th line forward. Kostitsyn and Perezhogin are highly skilled, but I think that raw offensive ability factors out the high bust-potential with players like Andrei and Alexander. Higgins is a guy that may not score, but he'll contribute in other aspects of the game, the other two would have a tough time helping a NHL club if they're not scoring.

Anyways... as for Wellwood vs. Higgins, I'm a huge fan of Chris Higgins and a fan of Wellwood, personally I think he's extremely overlooked and underrated by fans, even Leaf fans including myself. His skill level in my opinion is on par with many notable prospects around the league, the question mark is his skating and average defensive game. His skating isn't bad, it's just not eye-popping, not what you'd expect from a small forward that tore up the OHL. He has very deceptive speed and as long as his strength improves, he has a very good chance at making the NHL. Having said that, I think most Leaf fans don't have high hopes for him like they do with Steen, Colaiacovo, etc... I think he'll be a guy that'll make it to the NHL and surprise many.

If it were up to me, I'd take Higgins over Wellwood because of the security, if I had the luxury of having a lot of depth in the system up front, I would take Wellwood because I think his ceiling is higher, his skill level is higher, and if he develops into a NHL player, he'll produce more offensively.
Great Post Leafaholix .. well said ..

Like I was trying to emphasize ... HIGHER OFFENSIVE ceiling should he make it .. The Leafs already have two young solid 2-way character forwards in Steen and Stajan both comparible to Higgins style .... but a player like Wellwood in my opinion has that offensive game that may be ahead of all the others .. and his AHL success confirms that to a point ...

While Higgins or the two Leaf forwards may be safer .. does that make Wellwood less potential .. as a prospect ??

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11-22-2004, 03:30 AM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryoptix
actually perreault was a pain to watch in critical situation because of his speed and defensive liabilty.. he made his career with his faceoff skills and shot ...
montreal need fast,gritty player with good 2way game ...so i would take higgins over wellwood and over lots of other prospect ..
in today NHL teams always look for higgins type of player .. perreault is very easy too find and seriously he wouldn't have had this career without his faceoff skills ..
In the later stages of his career, yes... but when he was with the Leafs in the late 90's, he was more than just a faceoff guy. I wasn't into evaluating players when I was 14, but he was a solid 3rd line centre.

I think Yanic Perreault is a good comparison for Kyle Wellwood, but he'll bring some attributes Yanic did not and he may not bring some of the things Perreault did. You can't discredit his career though, if the guy could have stayed healthy he would have had 500+ points.

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11-22-2004, 03:35 AM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafaholix
In the later stages of his career, yes... but when he was with the Leafs in the late 90's, he was more than just a faceoff guy. I wasn't into evaluating players when I was 14, but he was a solid 3rd line centre.

I think Yanic Perreault is a good comparison for Kyle Wellwood, but he'll bring some attributes Yanic did not and he may not bring some of the things Perreault did. You can't discredit his career though, if the guy could have stayed healthy he would have had 500+ points.
If Wellwood fans could take a 400-500 NHL point career similar to Perreault I think they would take it in a heart beat ....

With Higgins style of play while a safer bet ..Will he reach those offensive totals that sometimes suffer as a result of a 2-way game that at times means Shut down role more than offensive role ...

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11-22-2004, 03:36 AM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Great Post Leafaholix .. well said ..

Like I was trying to emphasize ... HIGHER OFFENSIVE ceiling should he make it .. The Leafs already have two young solid 2-way character forwards in Steen and Stajan both comparible to Higgins style .... but a player like Wellwood in my opinion has that offensive game that may be ahead of all the others .. and his AHL success confirms that to a point ...

While Higgins or the two Leaf forwards may be safer .. does that make Wellwood less potential .. as a prospect ??
I don't think so.

But outside of the usual top prospects (concensus top 5-10 in the world), there seems to be a lot of hype for guys that...

a) ... are sure things to make the NHL... despite potential.
b) ... have insane amounts of potential, but are boom-or-bust.

Under category "a" we have the Ryan Kesler's of the world and under category "b" fall the Andrei Kostitsyn and Thomas Vanek's of the hockey world.

Then you have a list of guys that are rated based on where they play, where they're from, and where they were drafted.

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