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Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

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11-22-2004, 03:49 AM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafaholix
I don't think so.

But outside of the usual top prospects (concensus top 5-10 in the world), there seems to be a lot of hype for guys that...

a) ... are sure things to make the NHL... despite potential.
b) ... have insane amounts of potential, but are boom-or-bust.

Under category "a" we have the Ryan Kesler's of the world and under category "b" fall the Andrei Kostitsyn and Thomas Vanek's of the hockey world.

Then you have a list of guys that are rated based on where they play, where they're from, and where they were drafted.
Agreed .. the last point is a little subjective .. but certainly draft position wins out often on younger prospects guaranteed .. who as they age often drop from that B category when the POTENTIAL ceiling expected is not being realized ...

but in a case like Wellwood that does not fit either category directly .. but what could he possibly due to prove those doubters wrong .. as a 20 year old he lead all rookie scorers in the AHL despite the TOO SMALL, TOO SOFT, TOO SLOW detractors.. Currently he is on pace to break 100 points in the AHL and should he do that ..Still I believe he would be under rated as a prospect...IMO

Point being POTENTIAL RESULTS is greater than ACTUAL RESULTS ...

Other top prospects are not performing at these levels to prove they are any better .. so its interesting that they are perceived differently ..

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11-22-2004, 04:16 AM
  #52
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I don't think there's much to choose between them. I'd rather have Higgins, but not by much.

Higgins doesn't have much offensive upside IMO. However, he has all the tools to be a terrific third-line checker. Great wheels, work ethic, sense of positioning, and ability to pressure the puck in all three zones. I think he will play in the NHL, with guys like Wes Walz and Antti Laaksonen as comparables, maybe even Kris Draper-type upside.

Wellwood has more offensive upside - better goalscoring instincts and shot, more offensive tools. None of the intangibles though - he's either top-6 or nothing in all likelihood.

Regarding the original question - why Higgins is rated much higher than Wellwood by most - I'd just put it down to players carrying the stigma of their draft position. Unless he completely goes in the tank, Higgins will have the expectations/profile of a #1 pick, while unless Wellwood makes an NHL impact he'll have the profile of a late-round guy. Just the way it works ... doesn't mean anything in reality.

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11-22-2004, 06:51 AM
  #53
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I'd take Wellwood, but I like Higgins too.

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11-22-2004, 07:36 AM
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I wonder what the response would be if you surveyed 30 NHL GMs?

I have nothing against Wellwood (picked him myself in my keeper league), and I have nothing for Higgins, aside from my outrageously biased Habs fan perspective. I have seen a lot more of Wellwood from junior on up through the AHL than I have of Higgins. To be honest, Wellwood is surprising me. Or at least, let's say, he is so far hitting all of his maximum projections as a pro... he is thriving and scoring in the AHL, he has improved his skating and strength (from woeful to maybe-passable-for-his-style), and he is making a case for being a "late round steal". I feel vindicated too, 'cuz I drafted him as a late round steal myself.

But... you still won't find people putting him into the same prospect category as a 1st round NHL pick who is proceeding smoothly along the development path like Higgins is. If Higgins was struggling, if whispers of "bad pick" or other concerns were starting to creep in about the possibility of Higgins making it as a pro, then sure, we could be talking. But as it is now, Higgins is widely regarded as a sure-fire NHL player-in-the-making. He seems to be carving out a reputation with a Brendan Morrow-like upside, a hardworking guy in all areas of the game, physical, not a great finisher, but talented enough to play a 2nd/3rd line game. And his downside isn't too much below that.

Wellwood... suppose his upside is Ribeiro, and his downside is... well, any of the hundreds of not-quite-big-enough, not-quite-fast-enough, not-quite-defensively-sound-enough minor league scoring sensations who never quite make it. It's why HFBoards put in this whole letter grading system in the first place, to include this element of risk in fulfilling the potential. It's why Higgins nudges into the Top-50, and why Wellwood probably wouldn't make a Top-100 list.

Personally, I think that if Wellwood gets his chance, he will be that Ribeiro type. And yes, like others have said, with a bit more of Perreault flavouring to him. As for Higgins, even if he isn't quite as physical as Morrow, or his scoring doesn't quite live up to the standards of some of his other comparables, if he's just a 40-pt all-around reliable mucker of the Ricci variety, then... you know what? I think that most NHL GMs actually value that player more than they value the Ribeiro.

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11-22-2004, 09:14 AM
  #55
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It really boils down to three things...

1) Hype of the much higher draft pick

2) Wellwood's known skating imperfections

3) Higgins is the much safer bet because he is the more rounded player. He is an excellent defensive player infact (you don't need PIM's to play a rounded game)

If it came down to it, I'd still take Chris Higgins as a prospect over Wellwood, anyday of the week. However, the one thing Wellwood is doing, is proving that his scoring in junior was not the end of the line for him as many had prognosticated. He's definitely proving to be a prospect to watch out for, and thats a good thing as a Leaf fan.

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11-22-2004, 09:24 AM
  #56
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All I know is that Wellwood makes some plays with the puck that I don't see other AHL players able to do. Does Higgins do anything that sets him apart from others?

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11-22-2004, 09:33 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mooseOAK
All I know is that Wellwood makes some plays with the puck that I don't see other AHL players able to do. Does Higgins do anything that sets him apart from others?
Not really, but he does a bit of everything well.

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11-22-2004, 09:36 AM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafaholix
Not really, but he does a bit of everything well.
There are plenty of those types of guys to go around.

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11-22-2004, 09:37 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mooseOAK
There are plenty of those types of guys to go around.
There are plenty of the Kyle Wellwood types to go around as well.

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11-22-2004, 09:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock
It really boils down to three things...

1) Hype of the much higher draft pick

2) Wellwood's known skating imperfections

3) Higgins is the much safer bet because he is the more rounded player. He is an excellent defensive player infact (you don't need PIM's to play a rounded game)

If it came down to it, I'd still take Chris Higgins as a prospect over Wellwood, anyday of the week. However, the one thing Wellwood is doing, is proving that his scoring in junior was not the end of the line for him as many had prognosticated. He's definitely proving to be a prospect to watch out for, and thats a good thing as a Leaf fan.

I share your sentiments. I always considered Higgins to be one of the safest prospects in all of hockey, as he does have a very well-rounded game, with a bit of offensive upside. I think people are underrating his skillset, but whatever. Wellwood, on the hand, seems to fit the stereotype of bigtime junior scorer who doesn't have the other facets of his game to be a factor at the "next level." He is putting up points in the AHL, but does that mean he'll be a regular contributor in the NHL? Hard to say, but if a guy like Mike Riberio can, than so can he. I'd still rather have Higgins though, and so would most people. He's just a better player.

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11-22-2004, 09:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mooseOAK
There are plenty of those types of guys to go around.

Not really. I don't think there are a ton of very well rounded players at either the NHL or AHL level.

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11-22-2004, 09:42 AM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabid Ranger
I share your sentiments. I always considered Higgins to be one of the safest prospects in all of hockey, as he does have a very well-rounded game, with a bit of offensive upside. I think people are underrating his skillset, but whatever. Wellwood, on the hand, seems to fit the stereotype of bigtime junior scorer who doesn't have the other facets of his game to be a factor at the "next level." He is putting up points in the AHL, but does that mean he'll be a regular contributor in the NHL? Hard to say, but if a guy like Mike Riberio can, than so can he. I'd still rather have Higgins though, and so would most people. He's just a better player.
Well, the next level would've been the AHL and he's an all-star.

So...

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11-22-2004, 09:44 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafaholix
There are plenty of the Kyle Wellwood types to go around as well.
That can make plays with the puck that he can? I don't see them.

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11-22-2004, 09:44 AM
  #64
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Well this is easy. Wellwood's game is suited more to an AHL level, and it's not likely that he'll be able to translate this success to an NHL level. They hit harder, they skate faster and they defend better in the NHL. You can use Ribeiro as an example of a Wellwood-type making the NHL, but the fact that there are so few examples proves that Ribeiro's success is the exception, not the rule.

They can't just measure a player based on their absolute ceiling - they have to balance it out with the likelihood of hitting that ceiling. Notably, for Wellwood, the former is high and the latter is low.

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11-22-2004, 09:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mooseOAK
That can make plays with the puck that he can? I don't see them.
In all other facets of his game, there are dozens among dozens of similar players over the years.

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11-22-2004, 09:47 AM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafaholix
Well, the next level would've been the AHL and he's an all-star.

So...

Poor wording on my part. I meant to say that Wellwood seemed to be the type of player who was a big-time player in junior, but would be a question mark at the next level. He has proven himself at the AHL level, so we'll see if he can do it in the NHL.

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11-22-2004, 09:50 AM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabid Ranger
Not really. I don't think there are a ton of very well rounded players at either the NHL or AHL level.
From a Leafs' standpoint, and every team can find at least one or two of these types of guys, that describes Alexei Ponikarovsky. He has size, speed, can hit, is good defensively and can chip in some ponts. However, he has never been within miles of anyone's top prospect list.

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11-22-2004, 09:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabid Ranger
Poor wording on my part. I meant to say that Wellwood seemed to be the type of player who was a big-time player in junior, but would be a question mark at the next level. He has proven himself at the AHL level, so we'll see if he can do it in the NHL.
That's the way I like to look at it also, don't say that a guy will stop doing it until he stops doing it.

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11-22-2004, 10:10 AM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien
I wonder what the response would be if you surveyed 30 NHL GMs?

I have nothing against Wellwood (picked him myself in my keeper league), and I have nothing for Higgins, aside from my outrageously biased Habs fan perspective. I have seen a lot more of Wellwood from junior on up through the AHL than I have of Higgins. To be honest, Wellwood is surprising me. Or at least, let's say, he is so far hitting all of his maximum projections as a pro... he is thriving and scoring in the AHL, he has improved his skating and strength (from woeful to maybe-passable-for-his-style), and he is making a case for being a "late round steal". I feel vindicated too, 'cuz I drafted him as a late round steal myself.

But... you still won't find people putting him into the same prospect category as a 1st round NHL pick who is proceeding smoothly along the development path like Higgins is. If Higgins was struggling, if whispers of "bad pick" or other concerns were starting to creep in about the possibility of Higgins making it as a pro, then sure, we could be talking. But as it is now, Higgins is widely regarded as a sure-fire NHL player-in-the-making. He seems to be carving out a reputation with a Brendan Morrow-like upside, a hardworking guy in all areas of the game, physical, not a great finisher, but talented enough to play a 2nd/3rd line game. And his downside isn't too much below that.

Wellwood... suppose his upside is Ribeiro, and his downside is... well, any of the hundreds of not-quite-big-enough, not-quite-fast-enough, not-quite-defensively-sound-enough minor league scoring sensations who never quite make it. It's why HFBoards put in this whole letter grading system in the first place, to include this element of risk in fulfilling the potential. It's why Higgins nudges into the Top-50, and why Wellwood probably wouldn't make a Top-100 list.

Personally, I think that if Wellwood gets his chance, he will be that Ribeiro type. And yes, like others have said, with a bit more of Perreault flavouring to him. As for Higgins, even if he isn't quite as physical as Morrow, or his scoring doesn't quite live up to the standards of some of his other comparables, if he's just a 40-pt all-around reliable mucker of the Ricci variety, then... you know what? I think that most NHL GMs actually value that player more than they value the Ribeiro.
I like both as well and you brought in a dimension that I really was not going for or implying ... I am not looking for Higgins to bust in fact the opposite that he will be a safe near-sure-fire NHLer, not a bashing put praising perpestive here ... Just that he may in fact be that 2nd - 3rd line 2-way player that all coaches love ... and I was kind of asking based on performance to date could Wellwood be riding Higgins coat tails into the NHL .... because how much difference is there other than style ..but like you also mentioned and touched on, sure NHL teams love these 2-way players ...but who plays on those top lines ahead of these 2-way solid everything 3rd liners ... and I am suggesting and possibly more hoping that is a player like Wellwood..

Is strange because even Die hard Leaf fans are not sure of Wellwood because we always have nearly inbreed into us what a stereotypical potential NHLer is ...and that is no different than NHL scouts as well... The have highly skilled top picks bust and late rounders succeed and for almost the same reasons we are suggesting in this thread ...I have been sceptical like many others..in fact admitting that I wasn't even sure if Toronto was going to offer Wellwood a NHL contract coming out of junior despite his impressive OHL numbers... but they did and not only did he survive in the AHL but he flourished, while a Simon Gamache type player is taking much longer to make that adjustment .... Wellwood this season is continuing on that same impressive pace keeping in the TOP 10 in AHL scoring (7th currently tied with Dustin Brown, a few behind Jason Spezza)..

So the thought came up what would he have to do differently to convince people he could make it and he is a real prospect, he is already a TOP LINE center in the AHL and people that watch him can easily see how gifted offensively he is as both a goal scorer but more as a playmaker .. and then if you focus on the playmaking ability how fast does he have to be or physical to able to play his game and contribute .. and that is where the Higgins thought came from as player that is considered TOP 50 safe pick ...and once you get by all the size, age, years of experience similarities .. How much difference really is there in their possible success ??

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11-22-2004, 10:29 AM
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Chris Higgins has a all-around game that is better suited for the NHL, he will be able succeed playing any type of a role, from 2nd line to 3rd line. He is rated higher because he can do it all, but his offensive upside isn't great but his all all around game is the reason why he is on this list. I like both of these players, I am a big fan of Kyle Wellwood. The reason Kyle isn't in the top 50 is because he is very under-rated everyone thinks he's slow, and is undersize. Kyle does posses a great Offensive game, he has been great this year. It boils down to HF taking the guy with a complete game. They do have a alot of players that are BOOM or BUST, but those guys have a very high potential. In this situation Leafs have Steen, Stajan who are great 2 way players but they need a offensive player to help the likes of Stajan, Steen, Antropov, Ponikarovsky, and Wellwood fits the bill. Depending on your need, you can pick anyone of them.

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11-22-2004, 10:30 AM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
So the thought came up what would he have to do differently to convince people he could make it and he is a real prospect, he is already a TOP LINE center in the AHL and people that watch him can easily see how gifted offensively he is as both a goal scorer but more as a playmaker .. and then if you focus on the playmaking ability how fast does he have to be or physical to able to play his game and contribute .. and that is where the Higgins thought came from as player that is considered TOP 50 safe pick ...and once you get by all the size, age, years of experience similarities .. How much difference really is there in their possible success ??
I think that what Wellwood needs more than anything is the opportunity. I don't really know if he can be expected to change his game without losing the element of creativity that is what he does best. He just needs a chance to step into a 2nd line job behind a strong 1st line, get some PP time, and just showcase his talent long enough in the NHL that he makes his mark. Just like Ribeiro did last year with the Habs.

If the Leafs want to go with veteran FA types to plug any holes in their offensive lines and want to try to work Wellwood in slowly with spot duty on the 4th line, well, that's probably his ticket to a career as a prolific minor leaguer or a European league. Ribeiro floundered and looked dubious as a Hab when they were giving him part-time auditions with goon wingers. But once he had the 2nd line job full-time, no questions asked, and a permanent spot on the PP, then he did his thing.

So I wouldn't necessarily look at it as "what does Wellwood need to change about his game" to make it... more like "what do the Leafs need to change about their lineup and their team-building concept" in order to give Wellwood the chance to do it with them. If I had an expansion-like team, I would definitely want to get Wellwood onto it and give him that chance. But it's harder for a top-level contender to make the same accommodations. And that is the difference between making the cut and not making it for a lot of players, IMO.

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11-22-2004, 10:45 AM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmad
Well this is easy. Wellwood's game is suited more to an AHL level, and it's not likely that he'll be able to translate this success to an NHL level. They hit harder, they skate faster and they defend better in the NHL. You can use Ribeiro as an example of a Wellwood-type making the NHL, but the fact that there are so few examples proves that Ribeiro's success is the exception, not the rule.

They can't just measure a player based on their absolute ceiling - they have to balance it out with the likelihood of hitting that ceiling. Notably, for Wellwood, the former is high and the latter is low.
Totally disagree .. suited for the AHL better .. most people thought going in he would struggle so suited is not the right word at all here ..

I am claiming that perhaps it the situation and since your a Nucks fan lets look at like this ....Brendan Morrison 5-11 -185 lbs exactly Wellwood's stats... he is not known to be overly physical ... let say Wellwood was a Nucks prospect rather than a leaf .... If Morrison got hurt and the NHL team called up Wellwood ... Could he not also succeed at the NHL level and do what Morrison does playing between Naslund and Bertuzzi .. Morrison scores on average 20-25 goals on the big line but his forte is play making and getting the puck to his wingers, and I am going on record that Wellwood vision and playmaking is NHL calibre. But the big unit is also most dangerous on the PP and record significant amount of their points there.. Does lack of Top end speed or Physical play (which may be missing from Wellwood's all around game), play and Part of a Power Play unit ?.

Morrison is the best defensive forward on that line but this was just an Hypothetical example.. Morrison is also very successful in the SEL ..and I predict that if Wellwood is in the much more physical AHL that he to would have good success at the International level

Is that not possible ??? under those conditions ... and how much different are these players in comparison ..

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11-22-2004, 10:48 AM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mooseOAK
From a Leafs' standpoint, and every team can find at least one or two of these types of guys, that describes Alexei Ponikarovsky. He has size, speed, can hit, is good defensively and can chip in some ponts. However, he has never been within miles of anyone's top prospect list.
Higgins offensive potential is higher then just your everyday third liner. He's definitely got second line potential upside, not to mention the qualities you'd look for in a team leader and top penalty killer.

If you want to compare a situation, look at Mike Richards (whom for the record I do consider to be a better prospect then Higgins). He's considered to be the closest thing you can get to a lock for the NHL. Your solid third liner, Mike Ricci, yadadada. But he's also got much more offensive potential then that, which is why he's seen so highly in the NHL scouting circles.

It's the same thing with Chris Higgins, you know that you are likely going to get an NHL player out of him, it's just at what capacity offensively that is the mystery.

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11-22-2004, 10:50 AM
  #74
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Everyone knows if Wellwood does make it, he'll be playing on one of the top 2 lines. His game is suited for a offensive role, and is not a player like Higgins who can adjust to 3rd line or 4th line to stick with the big club.

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11-22-2004, 10:54 AM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Again ... Not intended to get Wellwood on any list ... NOT AT ALL ..

But I picked two prospects from different teams that seem very similar in many categories and asking the honest question with so many things similar why are they so different in PROSPECT POTENTIAL rankings ??

While skating speed is a factor, we have both seen many great Skaters as prospects that have not succeeded at the NHL level .. so how much of a factor should that be in weighting a prospect .. If you can take two players in the same league AHL and see similar STATS ..

Wellwood 55 points .. Higgins 48 points both in their ROOKIE AHL seasons ..

Does it matter if one player is a faster skater??
Are you the reincarnation of db23 ?

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