HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Prospects
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
11-22-2004, 10:56 AM
  #76
kmad
Riot Survivor
 
kmad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,179
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
I am claiming that perhaps it the situation and since your a Nucks fan lets look at like this ....Brendan Morrison 5-11 -185 lbs exactly Wellwood's stats... he is not known to be overly physical ... let say Wellwood was a Nucks prospect rather than a leaf .... If Morrison got hurt and the NHL team called up Wellwood ... Could he not also succeed at the NHL level and do what Morrison does playing between Naslund and Bertuzzi .. Morrison scores on average 20-25 goals on the big line but his forte is play making and getting the puck to his wingers, and I am going on record that Wellwood vision and playmaking is NHL calibre. But the big unit is also most dangerous on the PP and record significant amount of their points there.. Does lack of Top end speed or Physical play (which may be missing from Wellwood's all around game), play and Part of a Power Play unit ?.
Bad comparison - Morrison is one of the fastest players on the Canucks. Wellwood severely lacks speed and general skating skills. Also, Morrison has been considered a defensive player since before he made the NHL. He didn't have to "learn" defense.

And Morrison's forte is the defensive balance and hustle he brings to the top line. He's not an exceptional playmaker by any means, but it's natural that the guy centering two of the best wingers in the NHL will rack up a few dozen assists every year.

kmad is online now  
Old
11-22-2004, 11:00 AM
  #77
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blind Gardien
I think that what Wellwood needs more than anything is the opportunity. I don't really know if he can be expected to change his game without losing the element of creativity that is what he does best. He just needs a chance to step into a 2nd line job behind a strong 1st line, get some PP time, and just showcase his talent long enough in the NHL that he makes his mark. Just like Ribeiro did last year with the Habs.

If the Leafs want to go with veteran FA types to plug any holes in their offensive lines and want to try to work Wellwood in slowly with spot duty on the 4th line, well, that's probably his ticket to a career as a prolific minor leaguer or a European league. Ribeiro floundered and looked dubious as a Hab when they were giving him part-time auditions with goon wingers. But once he had the 2nd line job full-time, no questions asked, and a permanent spot on the PP, then he did his thing.

So I wouldn't necessarily look at it as "what does Wellwood need to change about his game" to make it... more like "what do the Leafs need to change about their lineup and their team-building concept" in order to give Wellwood the chance to do it with them. If I had an expansion-like team, I would definitely want to get Wellwood onto it and give him that chance. But it's harder for a top-level contender to make the same accommodations. And that is the difference between making the cut and not making it for a lot of players, IMO.
Now I think you are spot on here .. and my Nucks example above was asking the same thing .. its all about opportunity given and your surrounding wingers and team-mates..

The good thing from a lockout/Salary Cap CBA is that the big money $$$ UFA days of Toronto will be over like all other big market teams and it is the Wellwood like Salaries that help a team fit under the Salary Cap... so the better opportunity for Wellwood is increasing .

and its all about the right situation and being able to utilize what you have in your prospect pool to promote from with in .. but if the strategy is to have Nolan on one wing and Tucker on the other and play in the second line role for Wellwood .. Why not .. Matty Stajan's game is that of Higgins well rounded one ..

Again all about opportunity ..

What makes a Marc Savard successful ?? not large in stature .. not overly physical..certainly not solid 2-way game ..and uncertain but the knock against Savard was also lack of top end speed ..yet his role as playmaker between Heatley and Kovalchuk seems to serve him fine ..


Last edited by Mess: 11-22-2004 at 12:12 PM.
Mess is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 11:58 AM
  #78
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by kmad
Bad comparison - Morrison is one of the fastest players on the Canucks. Wellwood severely lacks speed and general skating skills. Also, Morrison has been considered a defensive player since before he made the NHL. He didn't have to "learn" defense.

And Morrison's forte is the defensive balance and hustle he brings to the top line. He's not an exceptional playmaker by any means, but it's natural that the guy centering two of the best wingers in the NHL will rack up a few dozen assists every year.
Terrible Terrible response .

......completely missed the point ..better go reread my post ..

I wasn't comparing Wellwood in all aspects of his game to Morrison.. in fact the point is the opposite if Wellwood had all of Morrison's other abilities you mentioned and his own offensive talents he easily would be a TOP PROSPECT .. .. in fact I pointed out that they are of the same stature (size, weight etc) and the key to be successful in that situation is playmaking, particularly on the PP .. where DEFENSIVE awareness and SKATING SPEED become irrelevant .. How fast do you have to be to stand still on the side boards or behind the net and make passes??? or how does your 2-way game come into play on the PP .. You are not out there in a shut down role to shadow one of the penalty killers on the other team ... So the things that are keeping Wellwood from being considered a solid prospect are at times in the NHL totally irrelivant.however in todays NHL game Power plays are often the key to winning teams because they are such a big part of it . and just like if you have a powerful Slap Shot would be irrelivant if you are a 4th line and penalty killer mainly..

Look at the percentage of Naslund and Bertuzzi points come on the PP ...

I agree in this particular example that Morrison by far is the best defensive conscience player on the line ... but it not written in stone that it has to be the Centre always and the Wingers can be carefree .. it just happens to be the case here.. You can't punish Wellwood here in this Hypothetical situation because his linemates are not more defensive oriented ... and as I am stressing in PP situations both of Morison's strengths are irrelevant ..Speed and Defense ON THE POWER PLAY... where that line excels at ..

but we are getting off topic here ... I just wanted you to see it from a different perspective that its the situation rather than the player that provides the opportunity ...much like Blind Gardien has stated ..


Last edited by Mess: 11-22-2004 at 12:03 PM.
Mess is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 12:16 PM
  #79
Bileur
Registered User
 
Bileur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,719
vCash: 500
Messenger, the way I see it is that there are two easy center comparisons for Wellwood currently in the NHL in the NE divison (Suspect physical play, defense, skating). Those guys are Ribeiro and Spezza (Spezza has a huge size advantage over the other two though). So to me it seems like it boils down to one question, is his offensive game as good as these other two. Seems like a fair question because despite their very good offense both are often questioned over the other aspects, Spezza was even sratched in the playoffs because of that (for a player that resembles Higgins in some ways I might add in Vermette).

Now I havent seen any of these plays that you guys are telling us Wellwood can make that no other AHLers can, but that sounds unlikely with some supremely skilled guys down there this year. Also take into consideration Ribeiro's style, sure he's slow, sure he's a weakling, but IMO what makes him able to survive in the NHL is his elusiveness, the guy is slick. So if Wellwood is as good as Spezza's or Ribeiro's, at least he has one advantage on the leafs which is protection (Belak, Domi etc..), then the comparison is acceptable, thats just IMO.

Now I dont mean he needs those skills to be effective, but IMO it seems like a good question to ask.


Last edited by Bileur: 11-22-2004 at 01:07 PM.
Bileur is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 12:17 PM
  #80
kmad
Riot Survivor
 
kmad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,179
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Terrible Terrible response .

......completely missed the point ..better go reread my post ..

I might be able to follow your posts better if you had a basic grasp of the English language.

No team will use up a forward roster spot just for an above-average powerplay man. This is why nobody has signed Cliff Ronning.

You compared Morrison and Wellwood in that they have small sizes. I replied with why Morrison can survive while being small - his speed, which Wellwood doesn't have. Then I cleared up a misconception you had about Morrison.

You try to make it seem like it was the opportunity that gave Morrison this shot with Naslund and Bertuzzi, but if I recall correctly, Morrison was thriving as a 50-point third liner before he was even put on the top line.

kmad is online now  
Old
11-22-2004, 12:35 PM
  #81
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Bottom line here :

If an NHL scout had to put his neck or job on the line when comparing these 2 Wellwood and Higgins as to NHL Potential ... what would they say ..

Higgins much safer bet ..well rounded ... offensive game may not be as strong ..but he has a real good chance of making it to the next level ..because he has a chance on all 4 NHL lines and even if the offense is not there, could still easily survive on lines 3 and 4 for his other abilities he brings to the table ... So basically odds are 12 roster spots of the 12 forward positions available ..


Wellwood ...What would they say here ?? Stature similar no advantage one way or the other .. Offensive stats at the AHL Level similar ... however Wellwood's far more 1 dimensional if you like STRONGER offensive game ..WEAKER defensive game ... and if he made the NHL it would have to be as a top 6 forward likely or remotely as an offensive centre on a 3rd line on a real deep team at his centre position .. So then the scout would say his odds are 6 roster spots of the 12 forward ones available ...but then judging what he is doing at the AHL level ..1 step down from the NHL ... Could he with any certainty say YES or NO ..he will make it .. because it may be the skating speed and defensive play that separated him for Higgins ..but as I pointed out there are many times when those characteristics do not apply as on the on the PP .. and it is those same characteristics that are making Higgins a Top 50 prospect currently ...

Mess is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 12:35 PM
  #82
Kirk Muller
Registered User
 
Kirk Muller's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Brrr -18, Gomez Cold
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,427
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Terrible Terrible response .

......completely missed the point ..better go reread my post ..

I wasn't comparing Wellwood in all aspects of his game to Morrison.. in fact the point is the opposite if Wellwood had all of Morrison's other abilities you mentioned and his own offensive talents he easily would be a TOP PROSPECT .. .. in fact I pointed out that they are of the same stature (size, weight etc) and the key to be successful in that situation is playmaking, particularly on the PP .. where DEFENSIVE awareness and SKATING SPEED become irrelevant .. How fast do you have to be to stand still on the side boards or behind the net and make passes??? or how does your 2-way game come into play on the PP .. You are not out there in a shut down role to shadow one of the penalty killers on the other team ... So the things that are keeping Wellwood from being considered a solid prospect are at times in the NHL totally irrelivant.however in todays NHL game Power plays are often the key to winning teams because they are such a big part of it . and just like if you have a powerful Slap Shot would be irrelivant if you are a 4th line and penalty killer mainly..

Look at the percentage of Naslund and Bertuzzi points come on the PP ...

I agree in this particular example that Morrison by far is the best defensive conscience player on the line ... but it not written in stone that it has to be the Centre always and the Wingers can be carefree .. it just happens to be the case here.. You can't punish Wellwood here in this Hypothetical situation because his linemates are not more defensive oriented ... and as I am stressing in PP situations both of Morison's strengths are irrelevant ..Speed and Defense ON THE POWER PLAY... where that line excels at ..

but we are getting off topic here ... I just wanted you to see it from a different perspective that its the situation rather than the player that provides the opportunity ...much like Blind Gardien has stated ..

Your theoretical situation, while yes Wellwood could succeed, is ridiculous because it forgets the other 50 minutes of an NHL game. Hell many, many AHL players could put up points just playing on a powerplay with Bertuzzi and Naslund. No NHL team is going to replace their number one centre for a powerplay specialist.

A player provides his own opportunity. A situation can help but isn't the determining factor. As much as I don't like Ribeiro, he FORCED Montreal to choose him over a veteran. The age of offensive specialist is basically over. Players can't be complete liabilities in every other facet except powerplay.

Kirk Muller is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:05 PM
  #83
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by kmad
I might be able to follow your posts better if you had a basic grasp of the English language.

No team will use up a forward roster spot just for an above-average powerplay man. This is why nobody has signed Cliff Ronning.

You compared Morrison and Wellwood in that they have small sizes. I replied with why Morrison can survive while being small - his speed, which Wellwood doesn't have. Then I cleared up a misconception you had about Morrison.

You try to make it seem like it was the opportunity that gave Morrison this shot with Naslund and Bertuzzi, but if I recall correctly, Morrison was thriving as a 50-point third liner before he was even put on the top line.
Again what are you talking about?? .. do you mind removing your HOMER glasses for a second so you can see the whole picture here ....

Wellwood is not just a powerplay man .. He plays a regular shift as a top line centre in the AHL and his points put him in the Top 10 scorers in that league ... and produces points at a high level despite the fact St. Johns powerplay is not very good at all .. often going games at a time without success .. So the majority of his points are coming at even strength to be exact .. and Wellwood has a respectable +7 (+/-) tops on his team a stat that does not include Special teams points ..and we are not looking at a CHL player here ..these are based on the AHL and a 21 year old kid playing in a Men's league and getting better all the time ... So how you came up with that is beyond me ...other than complete bias ...

Morrison's all around game is more comparable to Higgins.. I know that ... but given the opportunity like Morrison has in Vancouver could Wellwood not also produce at that level ... given that the wingers are the key goal scorers and the role of the centre is to distribute the puck and set up scoring chances ...exactly the #1 greatest asset Wellwood has .... and since the qualities that separate Morrison from Wellwood are skating speed and Defensive play which I am pointing out are irrelevant during powerplay opportunities and a good portion of each game..

I just used a Canucks example for you in hopes you could relate .... If Mats Sundin was out for a long period of time and Wellwood was given the opportunity to centre Mogilny and Roberts ...Would he be capable of doing that ??? and does need an opportunity like that ..an injury to a top 2 centre to get his chance???

I am not saying Wellwood is equal or better than Morrison .. I am trying to determine what makes a good prospect and what factors determine whether he makes the next level .... and clearly opportunity is a big part of it which you completely miss the point on all the time ...

Mess is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:05 PM
  #84
Leaf Army
Registered User
 
Leaf Army's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Leaf Nation
Posts: 8,417
vCash: 500
Good thread and the point of the arguement is well made.

It's not about choosing between Wellwood or Higgins. It's about how Higgins is widely considered a top prospect while Wellwood gets no respect. I can't chalk it up to anything but draft position.

I haven't seen much of Higgins, but I guess I'll get a chance on Friday when he and Wellwood go head to head on Sportsnet.

I personally really like Wellwood and I view him as a future NHLer. The only question in my mind is how good of a team he'll play on.

Leaf Army is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:06 PM
  #85
Leaf Army
Registered User
 
Leaf Army's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Leaf Nation
Posts: 8,417
vCash: 500
But to clear up some of the things that have been said about Wellwood...

1. His skating is good. The criticism is that he doesn't have top-end speed like the Comries, Sullivans, Brieres and St. Louis' of the world.

But on the flip side, how many times have we seen speedsters get by in Junior and the AHL by just blowing by the opposition only to get in the NHL and struggle because their speed advantage has been nullified?

Wellwood doesn't soley rely on speed to make plays and that could end up working to his advantage.

2. People were talking about Higgins' leadership setting him apart from Wellwood. I'm sure Higgins is a great leader (probably better than Wellwood), but Wellwood has also known for his leadership skills in the past.

3. I don't know enough about Higgins' physical play, but judging from responses, I'll assume that it's greater than Wellwood's.

But I was at the one game that Wellwood played with Toronto and he took a huge run at Zdeno Chara of all people! Don't need to tell you how that turned out though.

But seriously, Wellwood's not a physical player, but he's also not a perimeter player either. He plays well in traffic.

4. Defensive play. Probably Wellwood's biggest weakness last year. Coach Doug Shedden said that Wellwood should start a clinic on how not to back check.

However, this year Shedden mentioned that he's more impressed with Wellwood's improvement on defence than his offensive numbers. This can be partly evidenced by Wellwood's much improved +/- this year.


Last edited by Leaf Army: 11-22-2004 at 01:12 PM.
Leaf Army is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:12 PM
  #86
kmad
Riot Survivor
 
kmad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,179
vCash: 500
This may be off-topic, but +/- is not an indicator of defensive ability. Even among team mates.

Case in point: Todd Bertuzzi's +/- was greater than Artem Chubarov's +/- last season.

kmad is online now  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:20 PM
  #87
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nash13
Your theoretical situation, while yes Wellwood could succeed, is ridiculous because it forgets the other 50 minutes of an NHL game. Hell many, many AHL players could put up points just playing on a powerplay with Bertuzzi and Naslund. No NHL team is going to replace their number one centre for a powerplay specialist.

A player provides his own opportunity. A situation can help but isn't the determining factor. As much as I don't like Ribeiro, he FORCED Montreal to choose him over a veteran. The age of offensive specialist is basically over. Players can't be complete liabilities in every other facet except powerplay.
See my post above ..

First ... Do you honestly think that PP's on average are just 10 minutes a game, with all the obstruction-anything they are calling .. many times that number ranges easily into the 20 minutes of PP time in a game ... Also the flaw in your answer is that NO player plays the full 60 minutes but the goalie in an NHL game .. So when you are rolling 3 or 4 lines one particular line can only see so much regular ice time and the top players in the game average the 20-25 minutes max usually .. and then often those are made up of a good portion of PP time for the top line players .. So lets say arbitrarily 1/2 the time is PP and 1/2 regular of 20 minutes of ice.. So now for your example in reverse ...its only the 10 minutes of non special team time , that is further reduced by the PK in games ... So its not the 50 game minutes in your example but the 10 minutes of actual time a player is on the ice regular strength that we are talking about here ..

Someone should figure out average powerplay time, average penalty kill time in a game ..leaving average regular strength .. point being the phrase PP specialist only is missused IMO ..

Is it that 10 minutes of non PP time for a top 6 forward prospect potential (6-8 shifts in a game) that prevents or determines if a player is making the NHL ??


Last edited by Mess: 11-22-2004 at 01:31 PM.
Mess is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:24 PM
  #88
Captain Conservative
Registered User
 
Captain Conservative's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: My Blue Heaven
Country: Spain
Posts: 3,847
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Agreed .. the last point is a little subjective .. but certainly draft position wins out often on younger prospects guaranteed .. who as they age often drop from that B category when the POTENTIAL ceiling expected is not being realized ...

but in a case like Wellwood that does not fit either category directly .. but what could he possibly due to prove those doubters wrong .. as a 20 year old he lead all rookie scorers in the AHL despite the TOO SMALL, TOO SOFT, TOO SLOW detractors.. Currently he is on pace to break 100 points in the AHL and should he do that ..Still I believe he would be under rated as a prospect...IMO

Point being POTENTIAL RESULTS is greater than ACTUAL RESULTS ...

Other top prospects are not performing at these levels to prove they are any better .. so its interesting that they are perceived differently ..

Potential results are greater than actual results in the AHL by a long shot. If Wellwood was scoring points in the NHL then it would be more noteworthy. As it is, I got a headache reading this silly thread.

Captain Conservative is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:28 PM
  #89
montreal
Go Habs Go
 
montreal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Country: Sark
Posts: 23,454
vCash: 500
Well I don't think Higgins and Wellwood make a good comparison since they play a different style. I think Wellwood compares better with Corey Locke, although I only see Wellwood 2-3 times a year and don't really follow him that much.

As for Higgins, he's struggling with his offensive game lately, but the entire team is, getting about 1 goal on average for the last few weeks off the top of my head. Higgins is short, but he's not small. He's got a solid upper body build, but needs to continue to improve his lower body strength. His skating and foot speed are NHL quality, and he is a very smart player, very good positionally. If there was an NHL season, he would be with the Habs imo.

I do think many underrate Higgins offensive game, as he was either the top scorer or close to that going back to his days with Avalon, Yale, Team USA (led the team in scoring at 18, 2nd or 3rd in scoring the next year) and he was in the top 5 or 6 in rookie scoring in the AHL as a 20 year old. So far he has not produced as well as he did last year. From the 4 games I've been at, he's had several good chances that just aren't going in. Maybe I'm overrating his offensive game, or he's just stuck in a rut, as is most of the team.

montreal is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:52 PM
  #90
Sammy*
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,501
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Conservative
Potential results are greater than actual results in the AHL by a long shot. If Wellwood was scoring points in the NHL then it would be more noteworthy. As it is, I got a headache reading this silly thread.
No kidding. Maybe I should start a thread:
"Who's better, Kevin Bieseka or the all world Carlo Colaiacovo. Bieseka has got better stats."
Or how bout their own Ian White. He's way better. He's got way better stats. Much better 2 way player .


Last edited by Sammy*: 11-22-2004 at 02:06 PM.
Sammy* is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 01:59 PM
  #91
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal
Well I don't think Higgins and Wellwood make a good comparison since they play a different style. I think Wellwood compares better with Corey Locke, although I only see Wellwood 2-3 times a year and don't really follow him that much.

As for Higgins, he's struggling with his offensive game lately, but the entire team is, getting about 1 goal on average for the last few weeks off the top of my head. Higgins is short, but he's not small. He's got a solid upper body build, but needs to continue to improve his lower body strength. His skating and foot speed are NHL quality, and he is a very smart player, very good positionally. If there was an NHL season, he would be with the Habs imo.

I do think many underrate Higgins offensive game, as he was either the top scorer or close to that going back to his days with Avalon, Yale, Team USA (led the team in scoring at 18, 2nd or 3rd in scoring the next year) and he was in the top 5 or 6 in rookie scoring in the AHL as a 20 year old. So far he has not produced as well as he did last year. From the 4 games I've been at, he's had several good chances that just aren't going in. Maybe I'm overrating his offensive game, or he's just stuck in a rut, as is most of the team.
As you will notice I did not say one negative or detrimental thing verses Higgins including offensive struggles this year but praised him for his abilities and wholeheartedly support his TOP 50 ranking.. different discussion as to why he is currently struggling .. Strong team last season, lots of player changes all sorts of possibilities ..irrelevant to the point being made ...

The point I was making I picked a player near the bottom of the TOP 50 report to compare to Wellwood ... because their stature (size,weight, age) are all a wash as they are nearly exact... then as you pointed out as a 20 year old Higgins was a top 5 or 6 in rookie scoring, interesting point because Wellwood at the same age was 1ST in the AHL last season, as he lead all rookie scorers even the much older and mature ones..

Then as you touched on .. other similarities exist .. both represented their countries in the WJC .. both were highly productive at younger ages .. you presented Higgins resume, while Wellwood in fact lead the OHL in scoring as an 18 year old in fact with 118 points (see link) and has the distinction of being traded straight up for TOP PICK and TOP young player Jason Spezza 1-1 in an OHL trade ..

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/l...l19892001.html

So if Stature is a wash ..and offensive production at the age of 20 is a wash basically, and junior success similar, and neither has known problematic character flaws ..we are only left with STYLE ...and draft order ...

However firstly a TOP prospect list is made up of all styles and Higgins style is very much different that Vanek's or Kostitsyn as well and they are on the top prospect potential lists .. So concluding you don't have to ONLY be a 2-way player to be considered a TOP PROSPECT ..

Bottom line : What Wellwood lacks in an direct comparison to Higgins style wise (2-way, top end speed etc) none the less has not made him any less productive at the AHL level and if you combine all games played in the AHL ..Wellwood has actually been more consistent.. and played on weaker AHL teams to boot as last years Hamilton team was one of the top AHL teams and the St. Johns team was a non-playoff team for years already..

Yet Wellwood is never mentioned as a good or top prospect ... and that is the reason for the thread to determine why...

Mess is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 02:05 PM
  #92
kmad
Riot Survivor
 
kmad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Vancouver
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,179
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
Yet Wellwood is never mentioned as a good or top prospect ... and that is the reason for the thread to determine why...
As you've been told countless times, smaller skilled players almost never make the NHL. We notice the St Louis, the Fleurys, and the Ronnings because they're the exceptions. But look at Brandon Reid - a top level scorer in the AHL who can't do anything in the NHL.

Sure, there is a possibility that Wellwood could crack the NHL, but the odds are against him, no matter how many junior stats you toss into the discussion.

It's because he has these odds against him that he's not considered a top prospect.

I hope that answers your question.

kmad is online now  
Old
11-22-2004, 02:11 PM
  #93
Miller Time
Registered User
 
Miller Time's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 8,212
vCash: 500
AHL scoring means very little...

I think comparing the two (Higgings-Wellwood) by looking at their stats in the AHL is a serious mistake. A few years back, when Jason Ward led the AHL in scoring, I got excited thinking that maybe he had found the level of play that led the Habs to draft him ahead of Maria Hossa in their draft year... Someone pointed out to me that scoring in the AHL meant very little, and so I checked the leading scorer from the past few years to see what (if any) kind of NHL career thay had put together...

Here's the list: 97-98: Peter White, 98-99 Dominic Pittis, 99-00 Christian Matte, 00-01 Derrek Armstrong, 01-02 Donald Maclean,
Guess what, none of them have managed to do anything at the Nhl level...

Yes higgins and wellwood are the same age, and have a similar build, but obviously the people who make a living evalutating potential and talent see much more for Chris Higgins, than they do for Wellwood... and unlike the majority of fans, like the person who started this thread, they don't let stats in a tier II level league overrule their hockey knowledge. That's why he ain't in the top 50

Miller Time is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 02:22 PM
  #94
montreal
Go Habs Go
 
montreal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Country: Sark
Posts: 23,454
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
So if Stature is a wash ..and offensive production at the age of 20 is a wash basically, and junior success similar, and neither has known problematic character flaws ..we are only left with STYLE ...and draft order ...

However firstly a TOP prospect list is made up of all styles and Higgins style is very much different that Vanek's or Kostitsyn as well and they are on the top prospect potential lists .. So concluding you don't have to ONLY be a 2-way player to be considered a TOP PROSPECT ..

Bottom line : What Wellwood lacks in an direct comparison to Higgins style wise (2-way, top end speed etc) none the less has not made him any less productive at the AHL level and if you combine all games played in the AHL ..Wellwood has actually been more consistent.. and played on weaker AHL teams to boot as last years Hamilton team was one of the top AHL teams and the St. Johns team was a non-playoff team for years already..

Yet Wellwood is never mentioned as a good or top prospect ... and that is the reason for the thread to determine why...

So I guess what your trying to say is that Wellwood is underated around here cause he should be on the top 50 list. I can't agree or disagree, I don't have anything to do with any lists other then the Habs. I can't say I have followed Wellwood all that much, but from what I've seen from him, if I was an NHL gm, there's no doubt I would take Higgins. Why, he plays a much better style of hockey then Wellwood. I hate to compare players cause I mostly try to focus on just the Hab prospects. To me Higgins is a much better skater, much faster, much smarter positionally, more physical and I'd guess he's stronger as I know Higgins is very big on weight training and has more defined body frame. Higgins can play in all situations, and excells on the PK while being solid on the PP. To me Wellwood is more gifted offensively, but then again so is Corey Locke but I don't think you'll find many fans say Locke is a better prospect then Higgins.

As for Wellwood not be on the list, so what who cares, lists are entertainment only and there are tons of guys who could be on the list but they aren't. Each team has say around 40 prospects in their system on average. That's 1200 prospects give or take and trying to list the top 50 or 100 is not an easy thing to do by any means. Many guys will not make the list, and ones that do it doesn't mean anything for them either.

If you want to say Wellwood is a better prospect then Higgins, that's fine with me cause it doesn't mean anything. Just let them play and see what happens.

btw, I would be interested in hearing how you compare Locke and Wellwood, since I think they are similar players. Issues in the past about size, skating, speed.

montreal is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 02:23 PM
  #95
mooseOAK*
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 42,437
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time

Yes higgins and wellwood are the same age, and have a similar build, but obviously the people who make a living evalutating potential and talent see much more for Chris Higgins, than they do for Wellwood... and unlike the majority of fans, like the person who started this thread, they don't let stats in a tier II level league overrule their hockey knowledge. That's why he ain't in the top 50
These people who make a living at scouting are going to take the safer bet for a first round pick, that's a given. However that has little to do with what is happening at this point in time. Higgins is in a league where with his prospect ranking, being in his second year in the AHL and age he should be showing actual results.

mooseOAK* is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 02:41 PM
  #96
mazmin
Go! Jets! Go!
 
mazmin's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,838
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuppY
Everyone knows if Wellwood does make it, he'll be playing on one of the top 2 lines. His game is suited for a offensive role, and is not a player like Higgins who can adjust to 3rd line or 4th line to stick with the big club.
That's how I see it too.

Wellwood could end up stuck in the AHL if he isn't playing on a top 2 line somewhere. Higgins on the other hand could fit in almost anywhere... so who's better? I don't know. Who's got a better chance? I'd say Higgins. Who out of the two would I take?... Kesler.

mazmin is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 02:53 PM
  #97
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal
So I guess what your trying to say is that Wellwood is underated around here cause he should be on the top 50 list. I can't agree or disagree, I don't have anything to do with any lists other then the Habs. I can't say I have followed Wellwood all that much, but from what I've seen from him, if I was an NHL gm, there's no doubt I would take Higgins. Why, he plays a much better style of hockey then Wellwood. I hate to compare players cause I mostly try to focus on just the Hab prospects. To me Higgins is a much better skater, much faster, much smarter positionally, more physical and I'd guess he's stronger as I know Higgins is very big on weight training and has more defined body frame. Higgins can play in all situations, and excells on the PK while being solid on the PP. To me Wellwood is more gifted offensively, but then again so is Corey Locke but I don't think you'll find many fans say Locke is a better prospect then Higgins.

As for Wellwood not be on the list, so what who cares, lists are entertainment only and there are tons of guys who could be on the list but they aren't. Each team has say around 40 prospects in their system on average. That's 1200 prospects give or take and trying to list the top 50 or 100 is not an easy thing to do by any means. Many guys will not make the list, and ones that do it doesn't mean anything for them either.

If you want to say Wellwood is a better prospect then Higgins, that's fine with me cause it doesn't mean anything. Just let them play and see what happens.

btw, I would be interested in hearing how you compare Locke and Wellwood, since I think they are similar players. Issues in the past about size, skating, speed.
The list has nothing to do with it ... The list is fine as it is ... this is not he should be on the list or not point .. Not trying to say Wellwood is a better prospect either .. never intended to prove that .. more so that if Higgins is a top prospect .. how far is Wellwood behind him or why is Wellwood not considered a top prospect??

There is always the stereotype of smaller players beating the odds ..and to be honest even Diehard Leaf fans don't KNOW whether to count or not count Wellwood as a top prospect or if he will make the NHL .. because of that long on going detractor that has everyone convinced that size matters until a smaller player makes it and then suddenly become Martin St. Louis like exception to the rule ... when in all honestly big players bust all the time to, it just not as well documented or noticed I guess ..

You also always hear the TOO soft cliché's as well thrown out ... but in comparison Higgins had 18 PIM and Wellwood 4 .not the only factor I agree, but neither is dropping the gloves or getting very many 10 minute Misconducts either... is that a good enough indicator that one player is not Decidedly different ....When the NHL in fact has a MOST GENTLEMAN player trophy and you would never expect a BIG Power Forward to win it as then they shouldn't be in the NHL for the opposite bias BIG and SOFT ..

and am also a firm believer in EVERY prospect has a chance to Succeed and/or Bust ..regardless of any one thing ... That TOP 50 list could have all sorts of players that are considered top prospects today for one reason or another and could still fail to be successful NHLers ... and that's true for players like Locke and Wellwood and every other player not on any list .. so only the future will tell what happens ..

Often that as come up in this thread is opportunity needed to prove themselves .. The one disadvantage I see for Locke is that Montreal as a team is generally small at the NHL level and its top offensive players smaller in stature .. and so if Locke is to be given a fair chance that is one detrimental factor that might prevent him the opportunity .. While Wellwood may be asked to centre 6'4 + giants Poni and Antropov and his own size may not stop him in that regard .. but possibly NHL centre depth ahead of him .. If Sundin and top prospect Stajan and Steen all occupy the top 3 positions ..where would Wellwood play ??? .. Having absolutely nothing to do with his abilities as a hockey player in fact ..

Mess is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 02:56 PM
  #98
Leaf Army
Registered User
 
Leaf Army's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Leaf Nation
Posts: 8,417
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by kmad
As you've been told countless times, smaller skilled players almost never make the NHL. We notice the St Louis, the Fleurys, and the Ronnings because they're the exceptions. But look at Brandon Reid - a top level scorer in the AHL who can't do anything in the NHL.

Sure, there is a possibility that Wellwood could crack the NHL, but the odds are against him, no matter how many junior stats you toss into the discussion.

It's because he has these odds against him that he's not considered a top prospect.

I hope that answers your question.
I will continue to bring this up every time I hear someone talking about smaller skilled players not being successful in the NHL.

This past season.....

7 out of the top 11 point getters this year were 6 foot or under
9 out of the top 12 assist getters this year were 6 foot or under
5 out of the top 11 goal scorers this year were 6 foot or under

They're not the "exception."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time
I think comparing the two (Higgings-Wellwood) by looking at their stats in the AHL is a serious mistake.
Have you even read the thread?

They've been compared on far more than just their AHL stats.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time
Here's the list: 97-98: Peter White, 98-99 Dominic Pittis, 99-00 Christian Matte, 00-01 Derrek Armstrong, 01-02 Donald Maclean,
Guess what, none of them have managed to do anything at the Nhl level...
Those guys are mostly just AHL veterans. True prospects very rarely win the AHL scoring title. Everyone already knows that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time
Yes higgins and wellwood are the same age, and have a similar build, but obviously the people who make a living evalutating potential and talent see much more for Chris Higgins, than they do for Wellwood... and unlike the majority of fans, like the person who started this thread, they don't let stats in a tier II level league overrule their hockey knowledge. That's why he ain't in the top 50
Where in this thread have Tier II stats been brought up?

Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal
So I guess what your trying to say is that Wellwood is underated around here cause he should be on the top 50 list. I can't agree or disagree, I don't have anything to do with any lists other then the Habs. I can't say I have followed Wellwood all that much, but from what I've seen from him, if I was an NHL gm, there's no doubt I would take Higgins. Why, he plays a much better style of hockey then Wellwood. I hate to compare players cause I mostly try to focus on just the Hab prospects. To me Higgins is a much better skater, much faster, much smarter positionally, more physical and I'd guess he's stronger as I know Higgins is very big on weight training and has more defined body frame. Higgins can play in all situations, and excells on the PK while being solid on the PP. To me Wellwood is more gifted offensively, but then again so is Corey Locke but I don't think you'll find many fans say Locke is a better prospect then Higgins.

As for Wellwood not be on the list, so what who cares, lists are entertainment only and there are tons of guys who could be on the list but they aren't. Each team has say around 40 prospects in their system on average. That's 1200 prospects give or take and trying to list the top 50 or 100 is not an easy thing to do by any means. Many guys will not make the list, and ones that do it doesn't mean anything for them either.

If you want to say Wellwood is a better prospect then Higgins, that's fine with me cause it doesn't mean anything. Just let them play and see what happens.

btw, I would be interested in hearing how you compare Locke and Wellwood, since I think they are similar players. Issues in the past about size, skating, speed.
I think you have managed to misinterpret the entire thread.

No one is questioning Chris Higgins. No one has said that Wellwood should be considered a better prospect than Higgins and no has said that Wellwood should have been in the top 50.


Last edited by Leaf Army: 11-22-2004 at 03:02 PM.
Leaf Army is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 03:12 PM
  #99
turnbuckle*
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 3,724
vCash: 500
Jeez - too bad the internet wasn't prevalent when Dale Derkatch, Peter Lee, Ernie Godden, Tim Salmon, Aaron Brand and countless others were disregarded after tearing up their respective junior leagues. It'd be the same ol' "Why isn't he getting a chance?" threads.

"But look at the stats!"


Where is DB23 when you need him?

turnbuckle* is offline  
Old
11-22-2004, 03:19 PM
  #100
Mess
Global Moderator
 
Mess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 60,466
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Army
I think you have managed to misinterpret the entire thread.

No one is questioning Chris Higgins. No one has said that Wellwood should be considered a better prospect than Higgins and no has said that Wellwood should have been in the top 50.
Exactly .. Thank you ..

The point being to get people to think outside the box and stop quoting the company cliché's about small players ... and in this example in fact the comparison is between players the same height, weight, age etc ... So that point shouldn't even matter to be honest ..

but everyone always discredits actual results until the LONG-SHOT stereotypical smaller player makes the NHL and then you constantly hear.

Who would have thought that??
or
Exception to the Rule .. nonsense ..


This thread is trying to make that exact opposite point ... Why does a successful prospect at all levels, particularly at the AHL level constantly have to prove he CAN make it .... Give them the same opportunity that other prospects get and let them prove they CAN'T ... that is how the NHL finds Martin St. Louis gems from time to time ... finally some NHL team took their head out of their ass and said hey this kid has skills lets see what he can do ...

Mess is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:28 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.