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Chris Higgins or Kyle Wellwood or Spezza - How is a prospect judged ??

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Old
11-22-2004, 04:23 PM
  #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Army
I will continue to bring this up every time I hear someone talking about smaller skilled players not being successful in the NHL.

This past season.....

7 out of the top 11 point getters this year were 6 foot or under
9 out of the top 12 assist getters this year were 6 foot or under
5 out of the top 11 goal scorers this year were 6 foot or under

They're not the "exception."

.
How thick are you. The exception to the rule is the fact that very few small guys make the show, not that once they actually do they dont produce. By virtual definition they have too, given that most of them bring virtually nothing else to the table, hence this discussion.

My god .

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11-22-2004, 04:26 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by turnbuckle
Jeez - too bad the internet wasn't prevalent when Dale Derkatch, Peter Lee, Ernie Godden, Tim Salmon, Aaron Brand and countless others were disregarded after tearing up their respective junior leagues. It'd be the same ol' "Why isn't he getting a chance?" threads.

"But look at the stats!"
One can make a similar list of guys who fit the "over 6 foot, over 200 pound" minimum requirement to be a great prospects that didn't end up doing anything either. Where are you, Jason Bonsignore?

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11-22-2004, 04:27 PM
  #103
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Where is Brad Boyes in all of this ?

In this thread, Wellwood has been compared to Higgins (a much better all around hockey player from all accounts), to Mike Ribeiro (a guy with a 65 point season under his belt at the NHL level playing with rookie linemates), Perreault (a proven NHL veteran with decent offensive output), etc ... but the best Wellwood comparison is another Leaf draft pick, none other than Brad Boyes.

Boyes probably was more hyped due to his 1st round status. However, both Wellwood and Boyes have similar difficiencies (size, skating, softness, defense), similar offensive upside, and both have shown the ability to put up points at lower levels.

Ask yourself this, who would you rather have, Boyes or Wellwood? Now remember, most Leaf fans on these boards agree that Boyes is a failed prospect since he has been traded twice now.


Last edited by AH: 11-22-2004 at 04:32 PM.
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Old
11-22-2004, 04:38 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AH
Where is Brad Boyes in all of this ?

In this thread, Wellwood has been compared to Higgins (a much better all around hockey player from all accounts), to Mike Ribeiro (a guy with a 65 point season under his belt at the NHL level playing with rookie linemates), Perreault (a proven NHL veteran with decent offensive output), etc ... but the best Wellwood comparison is another Leaf draft pick, none other than Brad Boyes.

Boyes probably was more hyped due to his 1st round status. However, both Wellwood and Boyes have similar difficiencies (size, skating, softness, defense), similar offensive upside, and both have shown the ability to put up points at lower levels.

Ask yourself this, who would you rather have, Boyes or Wellwood? Now remember, most Leaf fans on these boards agree that Boyes is a failed prospect since he has been traded twice now.
Yeah fine. And Brad Boyes was considered a top prospect at one point was he not?

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11-22-2004, 04:39 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turnbuckle
Jeez - too bad the internet wasn't prevalent when Dale Derkatch, Peter Lee, Ernie Godden, Tim Salmon, Aaron Brand and countless others were disregarded after tearing up their respective junior leagues. It'd be the same ol' "Why isn't he getting a chance?" threads.

"But look at the stats!"


Where is DB23 when you need him?
Nonsense

Pick any NHL draft any year and you see TOP 5 draft picks BUST all the time that are 6'+ in height and have everything in scouts eyes that make them High draft picks ..

For everyone of you examples I can give you a Terry Ryan , Alexandre Volchkov, Daniel Tkaczuk, Robert Dome, Jason Bonsignore, etc etc ... that the results were no different when comparing NHL success ...

Everyone only ever remembers the smaller players that were drafted later due to that same age old TOO SMALL theory .. and did not make it mostly because they never were given the same opportunity ...

I can give you many many top 5 or 10 NHL entry draft picks that suffered the same fate ...but unlike all the 5th - 9th round picks you gave as examples these are NHL size players were not supposed to be long shots ..

and since when as in this thread comparison are 5-11 190lbs players considered small ... in the first place .. as the results prove that Leaf Army provided the under 6' club is the NORM and Not he EXCEPTION ..

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11-22-2004, 04:44 PM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sammy
How thick are you. The exception to the rule is the fact that very few small guys make the show, not that once they actually do they dont produce. By virtual definition they have too, given that most of them bring virtually nothing else to the table, hence this discussion.

My god .
Don't call me thick.

The point is that people write off success of small players (6 foot and under) as being the "exception". The evidence tends to suggest otherwise.

If you didn't get it that's your problem.

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11-22-2004, 04:48 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Leaf Army
Yeah fine. And Brad Boyes was considered a top prospect at one point was he not?
Wrong, he is still considered a top prospect in the Bruins system. Yet, it still doesn't make Boyes a viable future NHL entity or a "Top 50 prospect".

Simply looking at the numbers, Boyes and Wellwood are neck and neck for first and second year AHL output.

If Boyes is a failed prospect (as of 8 months ago when he was traded for Curtis Brown during his second AHL season), then what's with the Wellwood love fest all of a sudden during his second AHL Season ?

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11-22-2004, 04:56 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by AH
Wrong, he is still considered a top prospect in the Bruins system. Yet, it still doesn't make Boyes a viable future NHL entity or a "Top 50 prospect".

Simply looking at the numbers, Boyes and Wellwood are neck and neck for first and second year AHL output.

If Boyes is a failed prospect (as of 8 months ago when he was traded for Curtis Brown during his second AHL season), then what's with the Wellwood love fest all of a sudden during his second AHL Season ?
Because there is more to a prospect than size and speed, there are also smarts, puck handling, defensive awareness, character, leadership, and desire. If it was just who was the biggest and fastest we could all be NHL scouts.

What is the difference between Boyes and Wellwood right now? Boyes was given his chance to make an NHL lineup with SJ and failed. Wellwood has not been given that chance yet.

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11-22-2004, 05:03 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by mooseOAK
Boyes was given his chance to make an NHL lineup with SJ and failed.
Really? thats news to me .

And how many times did Perreault and Ribeiro fail before they finally made it (just using these players as examples because they are mentioned in this thread) ?

It's one chance or you're out, I guess.

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11-22-2004, 05:04 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AH
Wrong, he is still considered a top prospect in the Bruins system. Yet, it still doesn't make Boyes a viable future NHL entity or a "Top 50 prospect".

Simply looking at the numbers, Boyes and Wellwood are neck and neck for first and second year AHL output.

If Boyes is a failed prospect (as of 8 months ago when he was traded for Curtis Brown during his second AHL season), then what's with the Wellwood love fest all of a sudden during his second AHL Season ?
First off .. Boyes in not considered a failed prospect .. that is a mistake of every one writing off a 22 or 23 year old player ..If there was a season right now .. with all the players Boston released there was a good chance he would be in the NHL right now ...So failed seems a bit naive if that was the case ..

Second number of times traded is not a measurement of anything concrete one way or another ... Boyes ended up being traded because that is who SJ insisted on in the Nolan trade .. because at the time was considered Leafs Top Prospect...Contending teams often have to part with top prospects or draft picks in order to GO FOR THE CUP ... that is not a negative reflection on the prospect traded ..

Boyes situation is only a little different in that currently he gets passed by all those **sexy** High picks in the past couple of years that have yet to make their marks, every one always remembers the NEW KIDS on the Block and neglects the older ones .. ..there is no guarantee one way or another as of today if all players on the list will make it and Boyes will not and be considered a bust ..

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11-22-2004, 05:08 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by The Messenger
First off .. Boyes in not considered a failed prospect .. that is a mistake of every one writing off a 22 or 23 year old player ..If there was a season right now .. with all the players Boston released there was a good chance he would be in the NHL right now ...So failed seems a bit naive if that was the case ..

Second number of times traded is not a measurement of anything concrete one way or another ... Boyes ended up being traded because that is who SJ insisted on in the Nolan trade .. because at the time was considered Leafs Top Prospect...Contending teams often have to part with top prospects or draft picks in order to GO FOR THE CUP ... that is not a negative reflection on the prospect traded ..

Boyes situation is only a little different in that currently he gets passed by all those **sexy** High picks in the past couple of years that have yet to make their marks, every one always remembers the NEW KIDS on the Block and neglects the older ones .. ..there is no guarantee one way or another as of today if all players on the list will make it and Boyes will not and be considered a bust ..
I never said I considered Boyes a bust, I was just repeating what I had read on this forum from Leaf fans. The same guys who are in this thread pimping Wellwood, are some of the same ones who have called Boyes a bust (not necessarily you Messenger).

Tell me, what is the difference between Boyes and Wellwood. To be honest, I don't see any.

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11-22-2004, 05:16 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
....+/- [/U]
Wellwood
....+7
....-14

Higgs
....-1
.....+16

....

IMO Higgins is more disciplined defensively then Wellwood.That's why imo He's in the top 50.Wellwood is playing in an red hot team right now and He's +7 and the bulldogs are having an losing streak of 8 games !!! And Higgins is -1. .......... both have the same offensive skills imo but Higgins have a slight advantage defensively.


Last edited by CH Wizard: 11-22-2004 at 05:22 PM.
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Old
11-22-2004, 05:20 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Leaf Army
Don't call me thick.

The point is that people write off success of small players (6 foot and under) as being the "exception". The evidence tends to suggest otherwise.

If you didn't get it that's your problem.
You are . Have you ever looked at the number of small, skilled, guys (add in suspect skating if you wish) who never made the NHL but who produced as Juniors or in the A. They are a dime a dozen & dwarf the number of guys who make it. Hence the guys who make it are a the exception to the rule & your point that I quoted was ridiculous.


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11-22-2004, 05:21 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AH
I never said I considered Boyes a bust, I was just repeating what I had read on this forum from Leaf fans. The same guys who are in this thread pimping Wellwood, are some of the same ones who have called Boyes a bust (not necessarily you Messenger).

Tell me, what is the difference between Boyes and Wellwood. To be honest, I don't see any.
Height, Age, AHL experience, high draft pick verses mid round pick to name just a few differences but there are similarities as well ..but if too much is different hard to compare as equals ...but I understand your point ..

but really the point of the thread was I picked a player near the bottom of he list who is considered top prospect and made comparisons ... I could just as easily have taken Boyes as an example ... and not a reflection on the lists again .. but many of the players on that list are unproven, not as well known because they are young and the world potential means more .. but it certainly does not necessarily make them better or more guaranteed for success .. in fact Boyes AHL success has been better than some on that list to date .. and may in fact be a safer pick than many of the boom and bust players ..

The strange thing about this thread as it had lots of contributors that said its all about player size and I picked 2 players Higgins and Wellwood according to the HF site that are both 5'11 and 2 pounds different in weight 188 & 190 ... How can size factor into this discussion in the first place??? If Wellwood is an exception than so is Higgins NO?? or vice versa

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11-22-2004, 05:36 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by thegreatone

IMO Higgins is more disciplined defensively then Wellwood.That's why imo He's in the top 50.Wellwood is playing in an red hot team right now and He's +7 and the bulldogs are having an losing streak of 8 games !!! And Higgins is -1. .......... both have the same offensive skills imo but Higgins have a slight advantage defensively.
Just a point of interest though in that Baby Leafs winning streak is also happening despite 5 of their 7 wins coming with a ECHL goalie and AHL rookie JF Racine in net.. that has since been returned to the ECHL .. and I find it interesting that Montreal's team is struggling yet they are assisted by 3 of Dallas top prospects Dan Ellis, Steve Ott and Trevor Daley ... and Leafs farm system and team ranking was 29th and Montreal's 5th .... So something strange is going on .. if your team was one of the Best in the AHL and the lockout has rewarded the team with even more quality players from other teams as well ..

But the +/- stat can always be misleading and in this case it was intended to show that critics of Wellwood could not be so quick to disprove is defensive awareness if he has a +7 team leading stat.. on a team with many Negative players including his own linemate Druken at -2 ...

Have a look at the scoring leaders

http://www.theahl.com/AHLStatistics0...ngleaders.html

In fact Wellwoods +/- are better than many top prospect ..

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11-22-2004, 05:37 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AH
Wrong, he is still considered a top prospect in the Bruins system. Yet, it still doesn't make Boyes a viable future NHL entity or a "Top 50 prospect".

Simply looking at the numbers, Boyes and Wellwood are neck and neck for first and second year AHL output.

If Boyes is a failed prospect (as of 8 months ago when he was traded for Curtis Brown during his second AHL season), then what's with the Wellwood love fest all of a sudden during his second AHL Season ?
I still consider Boyes to be a good prospect.

You're using Boyes as a comparison for Wellwood. That's fine. I have no problem with that.

But Boyes was considered a top 50 prospect not that long ago. Wellwood never has been.

Are you suggesting that Wellwood should be a top 50 prospect like Boyes was? That's what it seems like.

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11-22-2004, 05:40 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by AH
Really? thats news to me .

And how many times did Perreault and Ribeiro fail before they finally made it (just using these players as examples because they are mentioned in this thread) ?

It's one chance or you're out, I guess.
No, that was strike one. But the Sharks did say yer out in a sense by trading Boyes.

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11-22-2004, 05:42 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Army
I will continue to bring this up every time I hear someone talking about smaller skilled players not being successful in the NHL.

This past season.....

7 out of the top 11 point getters this year were 6 foot or under
9 out of the top 12 assist getters this year were 6 foot or under
5 out of the top 11 goal scorers this year were 6 foot or under

They're not the "exception."

So now you're comparing Kyle Wellwood to Joe Sakic or Markus Naslund? I know Leaf fans are biased, but this is ridiculous..

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11-22-2004, 05:44 PM
  #119
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No one is saying Boyes is a Bust I think he will make the NHL. Boyes and Wellwood play a similar game, that is a very good comparison, I think if there was a season, this Year, Brad Boyes would have been in the NHL, playing behind Joe Thornton. Wellwood has been playing very well this year, and people keep talking about his speed, he's not slow, he just isn't fast as other smaller players. If you watch him play you can tell he is a better skater than given credit for. No one is saying Wellwood is better, I'm just saying how come Chris Higgins who is almost the same size, same weight, is considered way better? why is Wellwood always overlooked comepared to Higgins. Yes he is a better skater, and has a better defensive game than Wellwood, but Kyle's offensive game is better than Higgins. I'm not saying Wellwood should be in the top 50 prospects, but he just doesn;t get the respect why is that?.. sometimes skills are greater than size and that is the case of Wellwood

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11-22-2004, 05:45 PM
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregStack
I mean, we've all heard Higgins proclaimed to be some form of a super prospect, but Wellwood has consistently been knocked as too small to play the game. Seems like a double standard.

Examples of this?

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11-22-2004, 05:46 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by kmad
So now you're comparing Kyle Wellwood to Joe Sakic or Markus Naslund? I know Leaf fans are biased, but this is ridiculous..

He isn't comparing he is saying that smaller players tend to produce in the NHL, He did not say Kyle is like Markus or Burnaby Joe. He just stated the facts that 7 out of the top 11 point getters this year were 6 foot or under 9 out of the top 12 assist getters this year were 6 foot or under 5 out of the top 11 goal scorers this year were 6 foot or under.

He wasn't comparing

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11-22-2004, 05:48 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by kmad
So now you're comparing Kyle Wellwood to Joe Sakic or Markus Naslund? I know Leaf fans are biased, but this is ridiculous..
So is that leap in logic.

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11-22-2004, 05:54 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by BuppY
He isn't comparing he is saying that smaller players tend to produce in the NHL, He did not say Kyle is like Markus or Burnaby Joe. He just stated the facts that 7 out of the top 11 point getters this year were 6 foot or under 9 out of the top 12 assist getters this year were 6 foot or under 5 out of the top 11 goal scorers this year were 6 foot or under.

He wasn't comparing
No, he was using them to prove the "exception to the rule "argument is false.
Absolutly ridiculous argument.

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11-22-2004, 05:59 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by kmad
So now you're comparing Kyle Wellwood to Joe Sakic or Markus Naslund? I know Leaf fans are biased, but this is ridiculous..
Those stats are of current NHL players ... Sakic & St. Louis verses Joe Thornton and Ilya Kovalchuk ..etc ..

Wellwood and Higgins have no part of those stats ..

but I will give you credit for noticing that Naslund and Sakic are both 5'11'' just like Higgins and Wellwood though ... but of course Higgins and Wellwood are too small .. not wait not Higgins he is a top prospect ... just Wellwood then in a group of 4 players all the same height 5'11'' ... and again this has nothing to do with that stat and comparisons other than HEIGHT ....

They are stats provided to disprove the Size matters in the NHL theory because of the CURRENT NHLers under 6' feet and producing offensively are not the exception but the Norm and the bigger players are in fact the exception more so...

his could have been posted in any thread outside of this one and most posters would have understood the point .

Thanks for being the exception to the rule ... In this case size does matter but its brain size that is your downfall ..


Last edited by Mess: 11-22-2004 at 06:27 PM.
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11-22-2004, 06:04 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuppY
He isn't comparing he is saying that smaller players tend to produce in the NHL, He did not say Kyle is like Markus or Burnaby Joe. He just stated the facts that 7 out of the top 11 point getters this year were 6 foot or under 9 out of the top 12 assist getters this year were 6 foot or under 5 out of the top 11 goal scorers this year were 6 foot or under.

He wasn't comparing
I know, I had to do it though.

Also note that out of all of the players in those lists, the only three actually UNDER 6'0 (in the top 11 point getters) are Naslund, Sakic, and St Louis. Sakic and St Louis are incredibly fast and Naslund is 205 lbs strong. You could make it even more vague and say that big players are the worst offensively - there was nobody over 6'5 in the top 20 in scoring. Wellwood is slow, small, and relatively weak. He just doesn't have the physical capability to succeed at the NHL level.

Kudos to him if he proves me wrong, though. I'm sure I'd have said the same thing about Cliff Ronning at the beginning of his career.

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