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Western Conference playoff race

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Old
01-21-2012, 08:22 AM
  #1
Body Checker
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Western Conference playoff race

Mod - can we get this stickied so it can be discussed nightly?

Good night last night, Dallas loses to Tampa Bay in regulation. Dallas plays again tonight so they are catching up to us in games played.

With Phoenix and Minnesota struggling things have really tightened up.

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01-21-2012, 08:44 AM
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BurnEmUp
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8. Colorado - 52 points - 48 GP
9. Minnesota - 51 points - 47 GP
10. Dallas - 50 points - 46 GP
11. Calgary - 50 points - 48 GP
12. Phoenix - 50 points - 48 GP

Nashville and LA (6th and 7th seeds) are heating up, also heating up is Anaheim....but they are way back for now.

So the way I see it at the moment, is it's a five horse race for that 8th seed.

We still have 2 games left vs. Minnesota and Colorado (Combined 7-1-0 vs them so far) and we also still have all 8 of our games left vs. Phoenix and Dallas.

Those 12 games are ridiculously important games for the Flames.

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01-21-2012, 11:37 AM
  #3
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Can't have a discussion about this without...



Considering that was the general consensus at the start of the season...

I did not realize that the Flames had so many key games left in the season. Win the bulk of those twelve games, and things are looking good.

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Old
01-21-2012, 03:25 PM
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InfinityIggy
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Phx and Dallas are going to be our main competition for 8th I think.

It its going to be really important that we win atleast 6 of the 8 games against those two teams.

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Old
01-21-2012, 03:40 PM
  #5
MarkGio
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Here's the pre-deadline schedule for all the teams in our way of making the playoffs:

5th place - Nashville's (52gp & 66pts) schedule:
Sat Feb 4, 2012 Blues
Tue Feb 7, 2012 Canucks
Thu Feb 9, 2012 Senators
Sat Feb 11, 2012 Bruins
Tue Feb 14, 2012 Blackhawks
Fri Feb 17, 2012 Red Wings
Sun Feb 19, 2012 Stars
Tue Feb 21, 2012 Canucks
Thu Feb 23, 2012 Blues
Sat Feb 25, 2012 Sharks

6th place - Chicago (53gp & 65pts)Schedule:
Tue Feb 7, 2012 Avalanche
Fri Feb 10, 2012 Sharks
Sat Feb 11, 2012 Coyotes
Tue Feb 14, 2012 Predators
Thu Feb 16, 2012 Rangers
Sat Feb 18, 2012 Blue Jackets
Sun Feb 19, 2012 Blues
Tue Feb 21, 2012 Red Wings
Thu Feb 23, 2012 Stars
Sat Feb 25, 2012 Kings
Sun Feb 26, 2012 Ducks

7th place - L.A (52gp & 60pts)Schedule:
Sat Feb 4, 2012 Hurricanes
Tue Feb 7, 2012 Lightning
Thu Feb 9, 2012 Panthers
Sat Feb 11, 2012 Islanders
Sun Feb 12, 2012 Stars
Thu Feb 16, 2012 Coyotes
Sat Feb 18, 2012 Flames
Tue Feb 21, 2012 Coyotes
Wed Feb 22, 2012 Avalanche
Sat Feb 25, 2012 Blackhawks

8th place - Minnesota (51gp & 57pts) Schedule:
Sat Feb 4, 2012 Stars
Tue Feb 7, 2012 Blue Jackets
Thu Feb 9, 2012 Canucks
Sat Feb 11, 2012 Blue Jackets
Tue Feb 14, 2012 Ducks
Thu Feb 16, 2012 Jets
Sat Feb 18, 2012 Blues
Sun Feb 19, 2012 Bruins
Thu Feb 23, 2012 Panthers
Fri Feb 24, 2012 Stars
Sun Feb 26, 2012 Sharks

9th place - Dallas (50gp & 54pts) schedule:
Sat Feb 4, 2012 Wild
Tue Feb 7, 2012 Coyotes
Thu Feb 9, 2012 Blue Jackets
Fri Feb 10, 2012 Sabres
Sun Feb 12, 2012 Kings
Tue Feb 14, 2012 Red Wings
Thu Feb 16, 2012 Flames
Sat Feb 18, 2012 Coyotes
Sun Feb 19, 2012 Predators
Tue Feb 21, 2012 Canadiens
Thu Feb 23, 2012 Blackhawks
Fri Feb 24, 2012 Wild
Sun Feb 26, 2012 Canucks

10th place - Flames (52gp & 54pts) Schedule:

Mon, 6 Feb 2012 Ducks
Wed, 8 Feb 2012 Sharks
Thu, 9 Feb 2012 Coyotes
Sat, 11 Feb 2012 Canucks
Tue, 14 Feb 2012 Maple Leafs
Thu, 16 Feb 2012 Stars
Sat, 18 Feb 2012 Kings
Tue, 21 Feb 2012 Oilers
Thu, 23 Feb 2012 Coyotes
Sat, 25 Feb 2012 Flyers

11th place - Colorado (53gp & 54pts) schedule:
Sat Feb 4, 2012 Canucks
Tue Feb 7, 2012 Blackhawks
Fri Feb 10, 2012 Hurricanes
Sat Feb 11, 2012 Blues
Wed Feb 15, 2012 Canucks
Fri Feb 17, 2012 Oilers
Sun Feb 19, 2012 Jets
Wed Feb 22, 2012 Kings
Fri Feb 24, 2012 Blue Jackets
Sat Feb 25, 2012 Red Wings

12th place - Coyotes (51gp & 52pts) Schedule:
Sat Feb 4, 2012 Sharks
Mon Feb 6, 2012 Red Wings
Tue Feb 7, 2012 Stars
Thu Feb 9, 2012 Flames
Sat Feb 11, 2012 Blackhawks
Mon Feb 13, 2012 Canucks
Thu Feb 16, 2012 Kings
Sat Feb 18, 2012 Stars
Tue Feb 21, 2012 Kings
Thu Feb 23, 2012 Flames
Sat Feb 25, 2012 Oilers


Last edited by MarkGio: 02-04-2012 at 01:53 PM.
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Old
01-22-2012, 08:44 AM
  #6
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Another good nite for the flames. Phoenix loses and the Minny/Dallas, LA/Colorado games are regulation games. So we gain 2 points on 3 teams.

Tampa did us a big favor this week

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01-22-2012, 09:18 AM
  #7
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We are right within spitting distance of o PO spot. Hopefully we will still be there after the next 2 weeks where we only play 3 games - against Det, SJ and Chicago.

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01-22-2012, 10:16 AM
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Pretty much 6-12 is a toss up right now. Anyone can get hot and play their way onto the top of the list of those teams. Hopefully the Flames can just keepo playing well and see what happens.

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01-22-2012, 10:34 AM
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Twenty of the Flames' remaining 33 games are at home, which is an NHL best. If the team can continue to play well at home and be at least .500 in their remaining road games, the playoffs are a possibility.

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01-22-2012, 12:09 PM
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Go from just having Glencross, to just having Cammalleri to potentially having Cammy, Tanguay AND Glencross on the left side at the beginning of March for the final push. Not too shabby.


And don't forget that those games against the Sharks are also key. With the Ducks coming on in the Pacific they could cause some problems and do us some favours and the team that doesn't win the Pacific could very well be within range of overtaking.

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Old
01-22-2012, 12:21 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Neighbour View Post
Twenty of the Flames' remaining 33 games are at home, which is an NHL best. If the team can continue to play well at home and be at least .500 in their remaining road games, the playoffs are a possibility.
If we keep up our current pace for home games and go .500 on the road we will finish with 93 points, which according to sportsclubstats gives us an 80% chance of making the playoffs.

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01-22-2012, 01:36 PM
  #12
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We're currently on pace for 87 points. So far we've played 7 games more on the road than we have at home, so if nothing in our play changes, that number should go up by a little bit with the extra home games.

With 7 teams in contention for three spots, I'd say our chances are only about 40%.

Things have looked up since the Cammalleri trade. The effort and compete level is more consistent and the guys seem to be playing for each other.

But honestly, I've seen how this plays out too many times. This team always seems to fizzle towards the end. I want to believe, I do. But this team hasn't indicated to me that it's capable of anything but mediocrity mixed in with the occasional hot stretch.

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01-22-2012, 02:00 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calgary Highlander View Post
We're currently on pace for 87 points. So far we've played 7 games more on the road than we have at home, so if nothing in our play changes, that number should go up by a little bit with the extra home games.

With 7 teams in contention for three spots, I'd say our chances are only about 40%.

Things have looked up since the Cammalleri trade. The effort and compete level is more consistent and the guys seem to be playing for each other.

But honestly, I've seen how this plays out too many times. This team always seems to fizzle towards the end. I want to believe, I do. But this team hasn't indicated to me that it's capable of anything but mediocrity mixed in with the occasional hot stretch.
I agree. This team has to be able to win some of the tough games coming up, if they want serious consideration for a playoff spot. We have lots of home games left, but at this point if we can't beat the other playoff teams regularly we won't be making it.

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01-22-2012, 07:39 PM
  #14
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Here's something to cheer everyone up. Looking down the stretch here is the strength of schedule, calculated for home and away strength of opposition of the teams Calgary has to catch or fend off.

Nashville - .527
Los Angeles - .523
Dallas - .499
Minnesota - .494
Phoenix - .485
Colorado - .480
Calgary - .477

As far as schedule goes we're in the most favorable situation going forward. Hopefully this pays off in three of four more wins than any of the above.

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01-22-2012, 10:38 PM
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Hopefully the Ducks, Jackets start winning games, and Detroit, Blackhawks, and the Sharks keep dominating. Good thing the Ducks are heating up

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01-22-2012, 10:52 PM
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Big Regulation win for the ducks over the avs

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01-23-2012, 12:10 AM
  #17
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I still stand by what I said in the other thread. Flames miss the playoffs by 2-3 wins.

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01-23-2012, 09:06 AM
  #18
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I stand by what I said in other threads. Retool. If you're not going to retool then use this as an opportunity to give your young players experience.

I hope this doesn't turn into a chase the post season at all costs exercise and hurts the long term.

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01-23-2012, 10:22 AM
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Anyone remember the link to that site that calculated playoff odds? It was fairly popular around here from Jan onwards during our failed playoff push.

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01-23-2012, 10:25 AM
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I just don't like how the flames are on a good run just before the all star break. That could be a momentum killer at a bad time.

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01-23-2012, 11:53 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saillias View Post
Anyone remember the link to that site that calculated playoff odds? It was fairly popular around here from Jan onwards during our failed playoff push.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

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01-23-2012, 02:22 PM
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I just don't like how the flames are on a good run just before the all star break. That could be a momentum killer at a bad time.
Or give our injurded players time to recover without missing more games. Having Tanguay and Glencross come back in only a few games would be HUGE for us.

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01-23-2012, 03:45 PM
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Stewie Griffin
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Based on the current points earned per game (seperated by home and away games) the final standings project as follows:

6th.........Nashville...........105
7th.........Los Angeles........97
8th.........Minnesota..........94
9th.........Calgary..............92
10th.......Colorado.............91
11th.......Dallas.................89
12th.......Phoenix..............86

Calgary plays Minnesota and Colorado two more times each, and plays Dallas and Phoenix four more times each. These 12 games will determine the playoff hopes. Every game matters, but these are the ones that matter most.

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01-23-2012, 03:53 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stewie Griffin View Post
Based on the current points earned per game (seperated by home and away games) the final standings project as follows:

6th.........Nashville...........105
7th.........Los Angeles........97
8th.........Minnesota..........94
9th.........Calgary..............92
10th.......Colorado.............91
11th.......Dallas.................89
12th.......Phoenix..............86

Calgary plays Minnesota and Colorado two more times each, and plays Dallas and Phoenix four more times each. These 12 games will determine the playoff hopes. Every game matters, but these are the ones that matter most.
I swear if we finish 9th again I'm going to stab a hobo.

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01-23-2012, 04:07 PM
  #25
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How depressing is it that half way through the season we already have to rely on being mathematically still involved in the playoff race.

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